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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/6/2018 5:49:37 PM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: Allied sweeps of Bangkok turned out pretty well, a 2:1 victory.

When Etorofu appears to be in hand (probably about a week), I'll resume the sweeps of Erik's main fighters bases on Hokkaido. I think the air war is the key to victory now - and it's a tough war to win. Erik's good and he has good planes and pilots.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/6/2018 6:56:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Opposing Carriers Forces: Just 21 hexes of separation.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/6/2018 9:44:43 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

I think the air war is the key to victory now - and it's a tough war to win.


His oil/resources /economy is probably in pretty good shape. If so he can out produce you in aircraft so this might be a heavy lift for a while

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/6/2018 10:13:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The plan is to seize several big Home Island airfields (probably Hokkaido) over the next four months. This should give Allied fighters the proximity needed to support the strategic bombing campaign against enemy aircraft and engine factories.

By mid-summer, I hope the Allies will be in a position to "pick up and move" in a major way to the "other side" of Japan - Manchuria, Korea, China, or Taiwan - thus isolated the Home Islands.

As that's taking place, Russia will become active and the Western Allies and Russia will (I think) shoot for making a connection with the Burma contingent of Allies troops.

And, at some point, the British will lead an invasion of Malaya or Sumatra.

When I took over effective 3/1/44, I was skeptical that the Allies would be in position to win until 1946, as I've mentioned before. Unless I'm misreading how things are developing, I think there's a fair chance the Allies will win in 1945, toward the end of the year.

Lots of fighting to do to approach that objective.



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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 12:33:28 AM   
JohnDillworth


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_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 12:41:20 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I don't know. I don't have any troops there. :)

Erik took all of China before I stepped in. With the exception of probes along the frontier, the Chinese are awaiting the distant day when the Japanese position becomes untenable.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 4:40:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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The main Allied op this turn is to land a reinforcing Aussie brigade at Etorofu to trigger an auto bombardments.

Towards the end of the last turn, I spent some time thinking about possible enemy attacks. My biggest concern was the Allied shipping at Etorofu and Uruppu, so adjustments were made to move what I could and to beef up LRCAP over the others. As it turned out, there was a threat but it wasn't the one I allowed for.

Etorofu: Main dispositions at the start of the turn.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 4:44:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: A small bombardment TF helps suppress the enemy airfield, which was heavily damaged during previous bombing raids and ship bombardments.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 4:46:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: With the benefit of an Amphib Force HQ in the hex, and Aussie brigade lands in good shape. It'll be useful in the coming attacks, but a primary purpose of each reinforcing amphibious assault is to trigger the Japanese bombardments that are so self-destructive.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 4:50:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: Every turn has many little dramas.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 4:58:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: This is unusual and ominous. For the first time during this invasion, Erik stages fighters forward. Erik inserts fighters at Etorofu, where the airfield is damaged but not enough (he took a chance that the Allies might bombard, but timed it so that he'd miss the biggest TF, so I'll take that into consideration in the future). He's sweeping the fighters at Uruppu, which are protecting shipping there, including the next bombardment TF.

At this point, my main concern is that he'll wear out the CAP at Uruppu and the LRCAP at Etorofu, and then send in strike aircraft against the shipping. Uh oh.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:02:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: Erik likes to use the KI-83 to sweep, the preferred role that you gents alerted me to when it first showed up. This sweep gets the best of my guys and opens the shipping to enemy strikes.

If Erik ends up with damaged fighters at Etorofu, he can't withdraw them via rail. I'll target the airfield tomorrow, but the results will probably be meager.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:05:57 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: Allied sweep encounters stiff CAP over the enemy airfield. The sweepers perform well, but there aren't enough. I have LRCAP posted over the base to protect the shipping here, too, but the threat of an enemy air strike is growing.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:10:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: Following one more small Corsair sweep, 2EB come in from Toyohara and get chewed up by the CAP. A number of similar strike packages follow this one, including one where a bunch of Venturas get shot down (reported as 15, the actual number may be 2x or more).






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:16:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: The sweeps and 2EB wear down the enemy CAP so that the final six or eight small raids aren't molested. The way is clear for the 4EB to strike....but they don't come until the afternoon phase...by which time the enemy CAP is refreshed and prepared to deal with the attackers, especially the escorts.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:20:07 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: The 4EB wear out the enemy CAP but don't score many hits. A belated fighter sweep finds no opposition.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:28:40 PM   
dave sindel

 

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Status: offline 		Dan, I thoroughly enjoy these "play by play" narratives. Makes me feel like I am looking over your shoulder while you watch the replay

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:31:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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No enemy strikes against Allied shipping. Erik won a nice air victory today. I'm fortunate to have escaped strikes against my shipping.

Etorofu: The news is good on the ground. The little land battles at Etorofu went well today, and the condition of the enemy units suggests they are weak and ripe for defeat.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:36:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: dave sindel

Dan, I thoroughly enjoy these "play by play" narratives. Makes me feel like I am looking over your shoulder while you watch the replay


Hey, Dave, thanks for reading!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:42:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: The ugly totals for the day.

The Hellcat and Corsair losses are the only ones that really hurt, assuming this kind of thing doesn't happen regularly.

The silver lining is that Erik lost 40+ good fighters.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:50:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: The reinforcing brigade came ashore in lovely condition, thanks to the Amphib Force HQ.

Planning for this turn and the next few turn depends on the condition of the Allied units that attacked here yesterday. If they're reading to attack tomorrow or the day after, I'm likely to implement a Plan A regarding Death Star. If it looks like they need at least two more days, a Plan B will go into effect. Both require lots of clicks.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 5:55:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Surprisingly it seems that the army is ready to attack again. Even 1st Marine Division is ready to go, with 10/15 on disruption/fatigue. So Plan A, which is the one I preferred, goes into effect with a lot of moving parts.


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/7/2018 7:08:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: An important general attack to take place at Etorofu, tomorrow.

And I believe the circumstances are right to detach Death Star briefly to handle the ingress/egress mission. That will be complicated, but the inbound material and reinforcements are considerable. DS won't be far away, should an emergency arise.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 2:08:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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As a new turn begins, I'm most interested in two things: (1) How will the Allied attack at Etorofu go (the last one, just two days ago, came off at 1:2, but I swear it seems like the enemy is ripe for defeat), and (2) Will there be any Japanese interference with the critical ingress/egress mission?

Etorofu: The turn opens with a non-nuclear bombardment.

These bombardment runs are long enough to lead to meaningful wear and tear to the ships. The ships perform these missions at flank speed, which is the issue. I'm leaning towards slowing the mission down, so that the flank speed is never further than 2 hexes (the distance from Uruppu, where the missions will start and end), to minimize accumulated damage. Staying power is high on my list of priorities, especially for these big BBs.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 2:14:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: LST TF landing most of a tank battalion. The purpose is known to all (including Obvert): to trigger a Japanese bombardment.

With Death Star moving away briefly, I detached an AKA carrying part of the tank battalion and sent it to follow DS. Shipping at Etorofu will be more exposed the next several turns, so I'll try to limit it to LSTs.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 2:21:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: Allied sweeps, 2EB and 4EB again focus on Etorofu, but this time target the airfield in addition to ground troops. The objective is to make sure the airfield is suppressed, after yesterday's Japanese CAP trap.

As expected, Erik didn't contest the hex today. I did expect him to perhaps set up something against Wakkanai or Toyohara, but enemy aircraft were quiet throughout the turn.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 2:52:12 PM   
Canoerebel


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Etorofu: The Allied attack nearly takes this base. I probably got a very nice nice roll here. The AE Wizard <chortle> might get even on the next attack, but this base should fall then or on the following attack.

This campaign will wrap up far ahead of schedule. The situation should allow me to suspend TF bombardments while DS is away (reducing exposure here at the tip of the spear). I'll also reduce the air force bombing runs a bit. The army will rest a couple of days and then resume the attack.

This is happening so quickly that I'd like to proceed with a new op as soon as Death Star returns, but I'm limited in my options. To invade, I need either Amphib Force HQs highly prepped or units highly prepped. The HQs have relatively low prep at the moment. The only army highly prepped is for Shimishura Jima - all at 100% and in overpowering numbers. Erik has drawn down his garrison to just 27k, so I'll chance it despite the Cold Zone winter conditions.

Erik is making reasoned trade-offs in withdrawing his Kuriles garrisons. The downside to the strategy is that he's reducing his ability to trade territory for time. If Shimishura still had 60k defenders, as it once did, I wouldn't invade until March 1. And if Etororu had its original 70k instead of 46k, it would've held out much longer, giving him additional opportunities to work opportunities to overwhelm at the point of attack, for points victories for aircraft downed or ships sunk.

How all this will play out in the long run remains to be seen.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 3:17:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: The ingress/egress mission is in good shape. The ingressers will rendezvous with DS tomorrow, so they appear "secure." The egressers will break from DS and head east the day after tomorrow, if everything appears to be in order. The location of KB, if known, plays a part in deciding whether things appear to be "in order."




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 3:21:31 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Nicely done! Japanese were showing disruption in the last attack so your strategy to use auto-bombardment against him has been a good one. Your non-nuclear BB bombardment might also have done more disruption that the Combat Report doesn't show. Now with half his fighting AV destroyed and forts reduced a level the fall of Etorofu is surely imminent, as you have estimated.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 5:31:44 PM   
anarchyintheuk

 

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Status: offline 		I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

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