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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 1:56:42 PM

Canoerebel

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Tried many times, doesn't work. His airfields are too big and have night fighters plus AA. My bombers take much more damage than they inflict.

Ship bombardments have similar issues, though there is potential there that I intend to explore if and when the Allies take Kushiro. I think it would prove to be a wack-a-mole venture, with damage seldom inflicted and pretty heavy attrition to my ships. If threatened at, say, Hakodate, he can shift his fighters to Aomori or Sapporo. My ships can't transit that strait, so he'd be able to avoid most attacks while getting shots at my ships under favorable conditions. And if his LBA fighters ever get a clean shot at my carrier Hellcats, they'll do 8:1 damage.

(in reply to AcePylut)

Post #: 2851

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 2:33:52 PM

brian800000

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's right - 8/45.

The problem is pretty dire. F4F-5s, F4U-1C, F4U-1D, P-51D, and P-47D25 cannot stand up to enemy fighters in sweep roles - not even with the best pilots I have (which are very, very good) fully rested.

My fighters can handle enemy naval fighters (I think), enemy fighters on LRCAP, and enemy fighters in escort roles (I think).

So the Allied plan is based upon placing Death Star between Kushiro and the main enemy bases, "probably" drawing any strikes and thus protecting the assault ships at Kushiro. Bombardment TFs and bombers will target Bihoro and Kushior airfields, and I don't think Erik will post fighters or bombers there, though he might. The plan has a decent chance of working and a decent chance of failing spectacularly.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I don't want to back off and wait six months in the hopes that next gen fighters can handle what would then be even better IJ fighters with more highly trained pilots. If I have to wait until the autumn of '45 to do anything close to the Home Islands, the war is basically over. Even if its not, somehow, the next six months would be excruciatingly non-fun. I'd have to diver to dealing with Japanese-held islands out on the periphery, doing stuff that isn't very significant, knowing that Japan's air defenses were just getting stronger and stronger.

I've tried everything I can think of - layered CAP, high CAP, low CAP, high sweeps, low sweeps, layered sweeps. Nothing seems to work. Could there be something I'm missing? Are there tricks to this that I don't know, given my experience level?

If the cream of Allied fighters and pilots aren't competitive for at least six months, what are the options?

Perhaps this is just morbid thinking. But I try to plan for and allow for best-case and worst-case scenarios, then working inward to more likely situations. Four months ago, I did not foresee a worst case scenario where the best Allied fighters had no chance. Six weeks ago, I was beginning to worry. But the situation didn't really become apparent until about ten days ago, when Erik started his big sweep campaign. It's pretty bleak now.

I'm not an experienced player, never made it to the late game, mid game, or even through the early game. But I've been reading AARs rather diligently, and this doesn't seem consistent with other late game AARs, where it seems that Japan struggles to keep anything in the sky and takes disproportionate losses.

There must be a solution out there....

< Message edited by brian800000 -- 10/12/2018 2:34:45 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2852

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 2:42:58 PM

Canoerebel

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This is no mirage. There are many reasons for this, starting with the low pace of the air war. Losses were very light on both sides going into mid '44. This allowed Japan to build a huge pool of planes and excellent pilots. The Allies did the same. Until recently, the Corsair, Mustang and Thunderbolt performed decently (the Hellcat has been outclassed since that start). But the recent Japanese fighters (Ki-83, advanced Franks, and presumably advanced Georges) are uber weapons.

The lack of responses by/input from experienced players to this point is worrisome too. Ordinarily, suggestions would come pouring in. But I get the impression that folks reading Obvert's AAR know the big picture and that any enthusiam they feel is dampened considerably. If there's a workable solution, I don't know it.

But I'm going to proceed with the invasion, do my best, and see if these dark clouds lift. They might.

(in reply to brian800000)

Post #: 2853

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 2:51:57 PM

Lecivius

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You picked up this game late. By then, Japan had built a huge reserve. This has allowed him to out-produce, and out-research you. His air power is superior to yours, and negates your naval power. All you have left is a better land force.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 3:26:57 PM

AcePylut

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what about taking the fight to him? If you can't defend vs CAP, then sweep his airfields. Begin a concerted effort to sweep sweep sweep and bring in the heavies to plaster the airfields, or aircraft factories. At least you'll force him to CAP his airfields "more" than perhaps he's doing now, and that "might" limit his offensive sweeps.

I don't know, you seem to be in a tough situation. I haven't been reading Obvert's AAR with any diligence, so I don't know his situation at all.

What are the ranges of his uber fighters? Can you close down most airfields being used for sweeps in that range with a concerted Sweep/Bomb strategy? Use the "closed airfield" strategy to force him to fly offensive missions from 1 or 2 airfields, then go all-in over a day, at those af's?

IDK man, imma just spit-balling here.

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Post #: 2855

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 3:37:57 PM

Canoerebel

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Allied sweeps score at about 1:1, sometimes better, but ops losses over enemy bases are high due to damage. The sweeping results have declined as he's gotten the better fighters.

The heavies cannot fly daytime raids. The sweeps only perform "adequately" while any escorts (and the bombers) get chewed up by his good stuff plus flak.

The one thing I can count on (I think) is that Erik can't order a sweep of Death Star. So I should be able to use DS as a shield between the beachheads and his airfields. His strike packages can come in with escorts, but both should get beaten up badly. I think DS is strong enough to survive at least one day of all-out attacks. If that analysis proves wrong, I'm toast.

(in reply to AcePylut)

Post #: 2856

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 3:53:12 PM

Canoerebel

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Turn is off to Erik. I think the plan is a good one. Whether it's good enough remains to be seen.

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Post #: 2857

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 4:32:14 PM

Lokasenna

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You're almost there on figuring it out...

You can't really defend against the sweeps, except with massed numbers and vastly disparate altitudes. You can try defending really low, but IME that gives mixed results - sometimes it works and sometimes it backfires.

In the case of defending against sweeps, to an extent (not so much for the Ki-83 because of its range, but it can work for the Frank-r): the best defense is a good offense.

If you sweep away his CAP, he'll be forced to choose between pulling his sweepers back into a CAP role or leaving his airfields exposed. You should be able to keep recon on his bases. You are able to count how many fighters sweep. If you keep recon on his bases, you can see where the sweeps are originating from way more times than not (and also often simply by following the vector line drawn on the map).

If he has 100 fighters at Base A and 150 at Base B, and you see 50 sweep from base A and 80 sweep from base B, then you know he only had 120 fighters total on CAP between the two bases that turn. If you can anticipate his actions, you can try to sweep when he sweeps - or even catch his sweepers on CAP (or, more likely, resting because of high SR).

The keys are: avoiding huge losses to sweeps, which requires leaving your airfields empty sometimes; maintaining a higher overall pace of fighter operations to force his SR3 and SR4 to be a factor (vs. your SR1 Corsairs and Jugs); and slowly attriting his pilots.

Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 6:10:11 PM

anarchyintheuk

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Scattershooting but in your game against John some of your fighter pilots had mediocre to low defense ratings. How's their defense now? Against the next gen fighters your pilot's defense rating needs to be in 65-70 range.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 6:45:35 PM

SqzMyLemon

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

I faced the same issues CR was when I took over the game as well. It's not the lack of combat, it's countering the low Japanese CAP that is the problem. I raised concern after concern in my AAR about not being able to achieve better than 1:1 results when sweeping with Allied aircraft. The low CAP gives Japan the numbers, climb and dive advantages over the smaller sized Allied sweeps. Learning how to defeat the Low CAP settings is how to beat Erik in the air.

Avoidance is a good thing too. Just defend what is necessary. Let the Japanese sweeps hit empty air and concentrate on somehow damaging those airbases and other aircraft in the rear by other means.

If I recall, I inherited good planes pools from Historiker as well, but I learned that Low CAP settings is a tactic that is hard to overcome and if you take it on in the traditional old way as an Allied player, you are quickly out of your best planes with pools almost empty.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 6:51:23 PM

AcePylut

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So... bring about 40 divisions and necessary support troops to Hokkaido and pound them into submission with Sherman tanks. Use bombers to butcher his troops to make the invasion easier. Use fighters to CAP the "one or two massive convoys" needed to dump enough supply into the Island.

Don't stop, just keep the initiative and keep rolling forward.

Jap planes can't fly from airports they don't own :)

Or such. IDK again, just spitballing, but I think you can CAP a massive convoy or two.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 7:41:57 PM

JohnDillworth

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The fighter production issue is really exacerbated by the fact that your opponent can concentrate every single fighter into the current attack vector. There is no other front. No China, no DEI, no Central pacific and just a bit of Burma. There is no place else he has to watch. All the action in this war is in small corner of the map and Japan has a thousand airfields here. You simply can't win the air war. You can't get air superiority so you can't really do an effective strategic bombing campaign either. You will have to try and break even in the air if you can and go with your strengths. Unless he runs out of good pilots your beating your head against a wall

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 8:11:29 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lastly, I don't think it's the airframes themselves that are the problem. I think it is the slow pace of air ops prior to you taking the game.

I faced the same issues CR was when I took over the game as well. It's not the lack of combat, it's countering the low Japanese CAP that is the problem. I raised concern after concern in my AAR about not being able to achieve better than 1:1 results when sweeping with Allied aircraft. The low CAP gives Japan the numbers, climb and dive advantages over the smaller sized Allied sweeps. Learning how to defeat the Low CAP settings is how to beat Erik in the air.

Avoidance is a good thing too. Just defend what is necessary. Let the Japanese sweeps hit empty air and concentrate on somehow damaging those airbases and other aircraft in the rear by other means.

If I recall, I inherited good planes pools from Historiker as well, but I learned that Low CAP settings is a tactic that is hard to overcome and if you take it on in the traditional old way as an Allied player, you are quickly out of your best planes with pools almost empty.

Right - for example, assuming enough materiale is ashore at Wakkanai... why even bother defending in the air there? It's rough terrain, you can build forts at the base, and IJ level bombers are very anemic if not so ineffective/brittle as to be suicidal.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 8:14:52 PM

Canoerebel

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John, I don't agree with that logic, though I've seen it said by many players many times.

I have the optimal situation right now - big airfields in proximity to his big bases. I can concentrate my air force while he has to spread his out somewhat.

If I had other major fronts going it would dilute his air power but mine too. And he would have the interior lines.

Burma has been hot on occasion, and the Allied air force has done fairly well there, but it really isn't effective to use it from the standpoint of "divide and conquer." I just means I divide and hurt myself. He's on the defense, which is easier.

I'd much rather have this position than to be fighting here and in the PI and in Burma, or whatever. Of course, that's assuming my air force was competitive.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 8:16:17 PM

Canoerebel

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Loka, I don't defend the ground troops or airfield at Wakkanai. It's secure, from that standpoint.

But for the two turns I had important ships there loading an army, I did have to provide CAP. On the second turn, that CAP got savaged, and it was Spit VIIIs, Corsairs, Hellcats, Mustangs and Thunderbolts.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 8:44:24 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

So... bring about 40 divisions and necessary support troops to Hokkaido and pound them into submission with Sherman tanks. Use bombers to butcher his troops to make the invasion easier. Use fighters to CAP the "one or two massive convoys" needed to dump enough supply into the Island.

Don't stop, just keep the initiative and keep rolling forward.

Jap planes can't fly from airports they don't own :)

Or such. IDK again, just spitballing, but I think you can CAP a massive convoy or two.

What he said.

His air force strength almost (and I did say almost) prevents you from using your naval advantage to be able to invade anywhere in the HI.

Instead of looking for new invasion sites, I would have bulldozed my way out of the current base you hold on Hokkiado with every last ground troop in my inventory heavy terrain and slow movement be damned.

His fighter strenght is moot against your superior ground troops.

Once Hokkiado is complete cleared you have only a strait to cross to be on Honshu.

If saved from heavy loss covering multiple more invasions, your DS would surely be able to cover the strait crossing.

Even if it was savaged in the process it will have done the job it needed to do in getting your LCUs to a place where nothing can stop them.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 8:56:45 PM

Canoerebel

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Trying to bulldoze out of Wakkanai would have been the slowest and probably the most costly method. He would have terrain advantages and could feed troops in and out. The 2x terrain would limit the effectiveness of my bombers. His AA would make it even more problematic.

I found what I think was a weakness in his defenses - a way to maneuver around his MLR into more open terrain. That includes clear terrain at Bihoro.

I guarantee this. Had I chosen to advance overland, some fine players would have protested, "Why didn't you use your mobility?" They'd have been right.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/12/2018 8:59:20 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:02:24 PM

BillBrown

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edit to 0

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 10/13/2018 12:20:54 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:11:52 PM

Canoerebel

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Bihoro's rail cannot be severed by sea - there is an interior line. That means Erik could rail in 200,000 men, if he wanted to and was prepared to do so.

Why get mired down in a 1:1 stalemate near Wakkanai? Why not suddenly lift off those troops, leave 90k enemy units in the jungle marooned for a week or two or three, and use mobility to go around the enemy flank, where a (supposed) weakness was located and confirmed?

Bear in mind this plan came into existence about 40 days ago, with prep following. At that point, the air war wasn't nearly as menacing. It's only been in the last few days that things have really spiralled out of control. But by then, I had already passed the point of commitment, as far as I was concerned.

A final point - you know I'm not playing to please the peanut gallery. I hope the PG enjoys the show, but whether elements or the whole "agree" isn't important. Of course, there are certain players of experience and ability whose approval or disapproval would register.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:25:30 PM

HansBolter

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Not here to be pleased by your accepting what I offer.

Simply throwing out a stream of thought.

I understand and appreciate your reasoning, but I do think you are overestimating the impact of 2X terrain at this point.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:29:01 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't think I am. Remember, I've been engaged in massive land battles in Burma for months. I've had the advantage of air power there but haven't been able to break through. Terrain and AA and forts and the quality of his units have results in stalemates.

Certainly there are a number of you gents that know the game far better than I do, and who probably wouldn't be caught in this situation. The reverse side of that is that there are 12,000 points of information that go into major decisions, and I can't give you all of them. So, quite often, peanut gallery may offer suggestions or solutions that are impracticable or disadvantageous.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:41:16 PM

BillBrown

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edit to 0

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 10/13/2018 12:21:10 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:45:46 PM

Bullwinkle58

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FWIW, and I haven't studied the maps, I think mobility at this date is on balance better than the steamroll. Time is a factor, but also device pools.

In the air it's tough to beat the fighters the IJA can put up, in any era. Just a numbers game. It's been a long, long time since I tried a strat bombing campaign--and that was an AI game--but I think you could do some good work at night in Manpower, no matter the losses. You've been mostly point-bombing assets. Manpower lets you get above all but the heaviest AA. I don't think NOT strat bombing is the way to go, even if it cost you all your B-29s. You'll be getting a lot of B-17s in a few months. And anything you can do to put pressure on his fighter pools is to the good. The Allies may not get enough fighters, but he can't stop them being delivered.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/12/2018 9:46:58 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 9:47:03 PM

Canoerebel

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Apparently my comment came across as negative towards Bill and Hans. Saying that I don't play to please the peanut gallery isn't negative towards the gallery. To play that way would be impossible, because nearly always the PG is split into two camps, a phenomenon I noticed many years ago, starting with my games and Greyjoy's game vs. Rader. People see things different ways. They especially tend to see things differently when a player (me, here) encounters challenges or setbacks. It's human nature to say, "I'd have done it differently" or "Why didn't you do x, y, z?"

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 10:03:33 PM

Canoerebel

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2/8/45

Kushioro: You know that saying that no plan survives contact with the enemy? I've just seen the combat report for D-Day Kushiro. The plan survived contact with the enemy.

As best I can tell, D-Day went about perfectly. I probably won't get the turn file from Erik until tomorrow, so I'll just post a few highlights and one graphic:

1. Allied TFs encountered subs, SSX, and riff-raff of all kinds, but no real combat ships. Damage to the invasion fleet was minimal, while many subs (and other stuff) were damaged or sunk.

2. The invasion fleet arrived at Kushiro in good order and unloaded. There were some disablements (prep issues) and modest damage from shore guns, but overall a superb landing.

3. Enemy air sortied in modest numbers and got chewed on more than doing the chewing. A few APA took bomb hits, but the air war went my way today.

4. The combat report doesn't reveal fast transport landings, but I'm hoping a number of units were deposited at both non-base hexes. These units should include armor that will help me open hexsides and (hopefully) take control of the surrounding hexes, so that Erik has difficulty reinforcing.

5. Allied 2EB and 4EB targeted Bihoro airfield (with modest success) and ground troops (primarily to slow the units bound for the interior hex). BB Queen Elizabeth bombardment TF also struck, doing no damage to the airfield (what the hey?) but hopefully flipping Erik's ground troops into combat mode.

6. I think Erik expected the landing to take place at Bihoro.

7. Slow BB bombardment of Kushiro went very well. Damage to the airfield should be extensive.

8. Look at the combat report. Note the comparative AVs. Note what kinds of units are not included in the enemy garrison.

Attachment (1)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 10:23:48 PM

Canoerebel

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I'll post extensively tomorrow, but I should have added this: I realize that a good start doesn't guarantee a good finish.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 10:32:42 PM

HansBolter

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Didn't mean to come across harshly in my response, it's just my blunt nature.
Would have been better to state that I'm not displeased by your not accepting advice.

What I offer is less advice than simply musings on what might work.

Bill hit on a good point. By pulling back put of the woods in front on W, you signaled your intent not to drive further from that point. This allowed the Japanese to see the pressure was off there. If you had maintained the pressure there he would not be able to pull the troops headed there away to react to your new invasion.

Kind of a Hold em by the nose.......

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 10:38:32 PM

Canoerebel

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It didn't happen that way. From the time the units began withdrawing until their left port aboard assault ships, just five or six days transpired. One day after that, they landed at Kushiro. Meanwhile, Erik's army of 90k remains mired in that woods hex. My guys left them far behind, where they'll play no role for weeks.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/13/2018 1:51:50 AM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Trying to bulldoze out of Wakkanai would have been the slowest and probably the most costly method. He would have terrain advantages and could feed troops in and out. The 2x terrain would limit the effectiveness of my bombers. His AA would make it even more problematic.

I found what I think was a weakness in his defenses - a way to maneuver around his MLR into more open terrain. That includes clear terrain at Bihoro.

I guarantee this. Had I chosen to advance overland, some fine players would have protested, "Why didn't you use your mobility?" They'd have been right.

I'd have bulldozed through. It would've worked, and I don't think it would have been delayed as much as you think it might have been. I'm talking about 10K+ USA AV here; a megastack plus 1K+ still at Wakkanai just in case he got cheeky. But I'm a "big hammer" guy on the ground.

I'm a bit more heartless in my use of units than most folks. Putting such a stack ashore would've cost me more ships and more planes. Mobility is only an asset insofar as you can use it. Yes, you can use it to land at Kushiro and get behind him - but look at the extra time it's taken you to prepare for it. It may cost you fewer ships or planes compared to what I would have done, maybe.

If he'd railed in 200,000 troops - well, that's basically all of his army and he'd still lose to yours (OK, maybe you'd have to bring in some more). He'd also have to keep bringing in tens or hundreds of thousands in supply - more than could be supported by Hakodate (and Muroran) alone. I'd view such a proposition as a strategic victory for the Allies. Fighting against 300K troops might take 3 or 4 months, but it would be 3 or 4 highly costly months for Japan. Even if he has 3M supplies in Japan, he couldn't afford the total cost of doing something like that.

I'm with Hans on the x2 terrain. It's helpful, but not that great.

On the other other hand, it also appears that I've misunderestimated (

) where all of your LCUs are in regards to the entire map.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/13/2018 2:32:31 AM

BBfanboy

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One thing not mentioned yet - unlike many players, obvert seems to be as brilliant as they come at land warfare. He can do sieges and mobile warfare. He uses terrain and road/rail networks to great advantage. He manages the mix to suit the mission, and he puts good leaders where they are needed. He may not have tanks at Kushiro, but I bet he has them on Hokkaido as a mobile reserve. No matter what Dan does, he will not get the rest of Hokkaido cheaply!

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> After Action Reports >> RE: Notes from a Small Island

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Slitherine

RE: Notes from a Small Island