Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

And finally the points tally. He overtakes me on the 30th Aug and no doubt for the rest of the game. My a2a losses have been absolutely brutal. And the final kick in the balls is the attacks on his air TFs at Paramushiro Jima reveal that 2 CVs I thought had gone down in the Feb 44 actions are still alive and very much kicking, so only 4 CVs he lost that day rather than the 6 I thought

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Well, I’m going to offer some thoughts, but take them with some caution as I am an AI player.

You’ve played very well so far in the sense of where the boundaries currently are, but you have finally arrived at the time of transition for IJ … the most dangerous time.

Economics.
Supply. At 5M for 9/1/44 it isn’t bad. Of course you always want more, but this isn’t way low or anything like that. Make sure you keep it dispersed around the HI. A lot of supply is lost in bombing raids, keep it dispersed as best you can and lose less.
Fuel: So HI will consume about 15K/day, 450K/month. So you have 10 months’ worth of full production HI left IF you put all of your fuel into it and if you are able to preserve your HI factories from B29 raids. Granted you are still making some fuel, but in terms of big numbers, you need to be thinking in this context.
HI: you are low here for me, but given your current perimeter it isn’t terrible at all. Converting 1.7M HI into 1E AC equivalents, you have less than 45,000. You’re actually building 2E and 4E as well, so it is like 32K AC total left to build. 2K AC/month for 16 months. Assume the rest of the HI will be converted to ARM/VEH … 6000 HI/day => 180KHI / month. This also assumes you will lose most of your HI production within 9 months; you’ve been playing very well, if you extend this date then things get much better for you here. And of course, there is the additional HI production from above to help as well. Net of your ARM/VEH production you can add an additional 9K/day => 270K/month. That’s over 5000 potential aircraft each month you keep the HI at full steam. A big deal. I am assuming your NSY/MSY are shutting down very soon; there should not be much left to build ….
ARM/VEH: very low. Keep ARM and VEH factories running wide open for rest of the game … you have a lot of units coming and you will need a lot of replacements. ARM points will just fly off the board.

So, basically you are in pretty good shape. The path for IJ victory is a very thin line, and while you have a couple of areas of concern, the IJ is all about that. Keep a close watch on your HI pool ... convert as much as you can into end products ASAP: engines, ARM, VEH pools cannot be bombed. Build away.

Great game thus far.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Well, I’m going to offer some thoughts, but take them with some caution as I am an AI player.

You’ve played very well so far in the sense of where the boundaries currently are, but you have finally arrived at the time of transition for IJ … the most dangerous time.

Economics.
Supply. At 5M for 9/1/44 it isn’t bad. Of course you always want more, but this isn’t way low or anything like that. Make sure you keep it dispersed around the HI. A lot of supply is lost in bombing raids, keep it dispersed as best you can and lose less.
Fuel: So HI will consume about 15K/day, 450K/month. So you have 10 months’ worth of full production HI left IF you put all of your fuel into it and if you are able to preserve your HI factories from B29 raids. Granted you are still making some fuel, but in terms of big numbers, you need to be thinking in this context.
HI: you are low here for me, but given your current perimeter it isn’t terrible at all. Converting 1.7M HI into 1E AC equivalents, you have less than 45,000. You’re actually building 2E and 4E as well, so it is like 32K AC total left to build. 2K AC/month for 16 months. Assume the rest of the HI will be converted to ARM/VEH … 6000 HI/day => 180KHI / month. This also assumes you will lose most of your HI production within 9 months; you’ve been playing very well, if you extend this date then things get much better for you here. And of course, there is the additional HI production from above to help as well. Net of your ARM/VEH production you can add an additional 9K/day => 270K/month. That’s over 5000 potential aircraft each month you keep the HI at full steam. A big deal. I am assuming your NSY/MSY are shutting down very soon; there should not be much left to build ….
ARM/VEH: very low. Keep ARM and VEH factories running wide open for rest of the game … you have a lot of units coming and you will need a lot of replacements. ARM points will just fly off the board.

So, basically you are in pretty good shape. The path for IJ victory is a very thin line, and while you have a couple of areas of concern, the IJ is all about that. Keep a close watch on your HI pool ... convert as much as you can into end products ASAP: engines, ARM, VEH pools cannot be bombed. Build away.

Great game thus far.

Thanks for the in depth analysis Pax. I must admit I'm clueless about how the economy runs, all I've ever done is try and ship back as much oil and fuel as I can. Looks like I will have enough to put up a decent fight till mid 45, providing I can keep him from doing too much damage to the mainland based industry....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Well, I’m going to offer some thoughts, but take them with some caution as I am an AI player.

You’ve played very well so far in the sense of where the boundaries currently are, but you have finally arrived at the time of transition for IJ … the most dangerous time.

Economics.
Supply. At 5M for 9/1/44 it isn’t bad. Of course you always want more, but this isn’t way low or anything like that. Make sure you keep it dispersed around the HI. A lot of supply is lost in bombing raids, keep it dispersed as best you can and lose less.
Fuel: So HI will consume about 15K/day, 450K/month. So you have 10 months’ worth of full production HI left IF you put all of your fuel into it and if you are able to preserve your HI factories from B29 raids. Granted you are still making some fuel, but in terms of big numbers, you need to be thinking in this context.
HI: you are low here for me, but given your current perimeter it isn’t terrible at all. Converting 1.7M HI into 1E AC equivalents, you have less than 45,000. You’re actually building 2E and 4E as well, so it is like 32K AC total left to build. 2K AC/month for 16 months. Assume the rest of the HI will be converted to ARM/VEH … 6000 HI/day => 180KHI / month. This also assumes you will lose most of your HI production within 9 months; you’ve been playing very well, if you extend this date then things get much better for you here. And of course, there is the additional HI production from above to help as well. Net of your ARM/VEH production you can add an additional 9K/day => 270K/month. That’s over 5000 potential aircraft each month you keep the HI at full steam. A big deal. I am assuming your NSY/MSY are shutting down very soon; there should not be much left to build ….
ARM/VEH: very low. Keep ARM and VEH factories running wide open for rest of the game … you have a lot of units coming and you will need a lot of replacements. ARM points will just fly off the board.

So, basically you are in pretty good shape. The path for IJ victory is a very thin line, and while you have a couple of areas of concern, the IJ is all about that. Keep a close watch on your HI pool ... convert as much as you can into end products ASAP: engines, ARM, VEH pools cannot be bombed. Build away.

Great game thus far.

Thanks for the in depth analysis Pax. I must admit I'm clueless about how the economy runs, all I've ever done is try and ship back as much oil and fuel as I can. Looks like I will have enough to put up a decent fight till mid 45, providing I can keep him from doing too much damage to the mainland based industry....

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

1st-30th Sept 44

He launches his first night B29 raids on Palembang during the last week of this period. At first he targets the oil and does only a few points of damage, but then switches over to manpower attacks and the fires torch 140 oil in just two days. This despite 70 NF and plenty of AA based there. He loses about 20 B29 so far. At this rate he will pretty much destroy the bulk of it by the end of October. Therefore, with a shortage of oil in the HI I have turned off the refinery here and everywhere else and am picking up all the oil I can whilst still able.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller
Meanwhile above is the current situation in Malaya/IndoChina. As you can see he has bulldozed his way to the coast in IndoChina in no time with his armour. Vinh will fall soon and then it's full speed ahead for Hanoi and Haiphong then a link up with his troops in SE China. The bulk of my troops are still at PPK (red circle) about 4k AV being beseiged by a similar amount. As usual he is trying to flank me and cut them off but I'm currently doing a withdrawal down the rail line further south.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

1st-30th Sept 44

He launches his first night B29 raids on Palembang during the last week of this period. At first he targets the oil and does only a few points of damage, but then switches over to manpower attacks and the fires torch 140 oil in just two days. This despite 70 NF and plenty of AA based there. He loses about 20 B29 so far. At this rate he will pretty much destroy the bulk of it by the end of October.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Miller

1st-30th Sept 44

He launches his first night B29 raids on Palembang during the last week of this period. At first he targets the oil and does only a few points of damage, but then switches over to manpower attacks and the fires torch 140 oil in just two days. This despite 70 NF and plenty of AA based there. He loses about 20 B29 so far. At this rate he will pretty much destroy the bulk of it by the end of October.

That's going to depend on how long the B-29s hold out. Remember that he only gets just over 300 of the first version, and the next ones don't come until November. Losing 20 in two days is not great for him, and it will likely get harder to do as much damage as the first attempt with each strike, especially considering the number of damaged planes he probably has as well.

In my initial attempt at the endgame I'd made the last transit North with fuel around the turn of 45. No more after that. I had much less supply than you do now and still the game was hard fought until July 45 when a bombardment run I was attempting stalled half way to target and was completely wiped out.

There is a lot left to do for him here and the DEI strat bombing doesn't gain VPs, so he's losing B-29s but only limiting your industrial output into the deep future.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The big thing is if you've still DEI oil flowing out, the situation is bad but not terrible. You've also the KB, which is a massive plus.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The big thing is if you've still DEI oil flowing out, the situation is bad but not terrible. You've also the KB, which is a massive plus.

Given that it's Dec of '44, things look pretty decent. Based on recent developments, I think you're right to throw a lot of reinforcements into the PI as given the overall situation I'd have good money on Kane wanting to open sea lanes to China and cut off the oil for good. Based on my experiences, not really sure if the PI is worth throwing the KB away for or if I'd hide it away for mid/late '45...

What's your overall plan for the PI?

Fighting as far forward as you can is probably a good bet here, even if it's expensive in the long run. More oil/fuel in the end means more supply, which you'll need at the end.

The late-war reinforcements for Manchuria should start to arrive in force now. Considering that you've till August before the Soviets become active, it might be worthwhile considering moving them to China and using them to push back the Chinese in a limited fashion. Looking at the map, maybe rail them to Tsingtao and march on the Suchow/Haichow area? My thinking here is a limited bid for VP's (Chinese units are about all the IJA can beat at this stage) and to build experience for the IJA units to (forlornly) prepare them for the Russian onslaught.