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RE: Notes from a Small Island

 
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/16/2018 8:56:20 PM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Hans, thanks very much for posting that info. Not knowing for certain had tied me I knots. I didn't have a good feel for how to plan that part of the turn, which is a key part. Now I know.



Beware glitches. Twice I have had a bombardment TF ignore the Remain on Station order and head for their home port only to have to reel them back in the next turn.

Fortunately I am in a relatively threat free environment at Hong Kong. Glitches like that could prove costly for you in this environment.


_____________________________

Hans


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/17/2018 3:16:49 AM   
Canoerebel


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Whence Death Star on D-Day+1: Two days into planning the next turn, and I still haven't made one key decision. I'm leaning towards leaving DS in place.






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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/17/2018 3:18:04 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/17/2018 3:50:58 PM   
dave sindel

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I may be spending more time on this turn than any I've ever had. The turn is important, but it's not necessarily the most important ever. It's just that there are massive numbers of variables. If I make a call it requires 10,000 clicks. If I change my mind....

I'm playing with a hypothesis - not relying upon it but studying it. In most recent advances by Death Star, strike aircraft have been at limited range. In this instance, they're set to zero (the chance of an overwhelming CAP-trap debacle are far greater than a carrier battle). DS hasn't reacted when I've limited strike range, making me wonder if carriers won't react if doing so still won't bring them within range of launching a strike. But it seems to much to expect that the designers would have thought that deeply into strike mechanics, so I'm a bit skeptical. And I'm not sure there's been a time when a reaction has been possible. Right now, and enemy carrier TF is 10 hexes from DS, so Erik might be trying to coax one.

I've been playing under the assumption that DS can (and probably will have to) withstand at least one all-out, mega air strike. In the current turn, Erik lost 400 aircraft (I lost 200), which might've dampened his enthusiasm. But he may be trying for that reaction, hoping for an overwhelming attack. I think I'm going to keep DS in place, or move it one hex (to just SW of Kushiro) to allow more supplies to unload. Pucker time.






I am most interested in how your hypothesis on carrier reaction works out. In my 2 ongoing PBEM contests, carrier reactions in both games have caused me an extensive amount of trouble...

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Post #: 2913
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/17/2018 3:58:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I consider it a weak hypothesis (surely the developers didn't think this deeply into possible reaction scenarios), but it's worth testing.

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Post #: 2914
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/18/2018 7:44:23 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		Not too weak a hypothesis if you think of Spruance at the Marianas. Mitchener who commanded the fast carriers wanted to move during the night and strike in the a.m. but Spruance said no so the landings could be protected. A little bit different than what happened later at Leyte Gulf.

A good use for your paratroopers to reinforce. Have you considered using the paratroopers en masse in other areas to take under garrisoned bases so you can avoid the CD guns? You could potentially move rather rapidly that way and thus stretch out the defenders there.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 2915
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/18/2018 10:10:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

…. Have you considered using the paratroopers en masse in other areas to take under garrisoned bases so you can avoid the CD guns? You could potentially move rather rapidly that way and thus stretch out the defenders there.


No such thing as an under-garrisoned base. This is Obvert on the defense! He has everything covered hugely.

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Post #: 2916
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 2:31:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+1: A key turn opens with a strong bombardment by a relatively modest TF.

The AE TF in the hex used up all 1000 ops point auto-re-arming mostly DDs, which is helpful. The chances of enemy surface engagement are small but still there.

This is a key turn. My forces basically remain static a second day, in proximity to so many big enemy airfields. I'm puckering. Tomorrow my forces will be moving in ways probably unpredictable to Erik, so if he's going to strike, this is the day to do it.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 2:34:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+1: To my surprise and relief, Erik doesn't order all-out aerial attacks against Allied shipping. His main efforts are to sweep the non-base hex where I've landed a bunch of armor and infantry (between Kushiro and Bihoro). I have no CAP up, so no combat. He also posts heavy LRCAP over Bihoro. My sweepers get the best of his CAP. This is the heaviest of a series of bombing raids meant to suppress the airfield and slow ground movement.






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Post #: 2918
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 2:45:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+1: Hard, costly fighting during the opening Allied attack. At first blush, the attack seems to have been disappointing. But analyzing all the available data, I think things went fairly well. I think this is doable - IF I can prevent Erik from reinforcing. That's a big'n - a big if.




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Post #: 2919
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 3:05:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+1: A rollicking, confusing, challenging, fun battle unfolding. Three-dimensional chess on steroids.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 5:45:24 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Whoa - nice bonus on the bombardment to hit two I-boats in port! I wonder what other ships he might have there that were not hit ... yet.

That Superfort raid sure had weak results for the huge number of aircraft. He must have half his flak in that hex!

For the land battle, you must have had units just landing on the same day as the combat, so are they in good enough shape to continue the assault?

Come what may, thanks for bringing us this thriller! Bonne Chance!

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Post #: 2921
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 5:47:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		A lot of the bombers - perhaps half - were targeting ground units. I'm doing everything I can to slow the advance of units heading to Kushiro. It's going to be quite a race.

Only a few fragments of units were still coming ashore, triggering that IJ bombardment. I'll bring more later, but nothing for a few days as DS is up to other important thing temporarily.

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Post #: 2922
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 6:08:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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For the past ten days, flip time for turns has average more than two days. We've been grinding, mostly because of the complexity of this campaign. Today's turn arrived just 12 hours after I sent it to Erik, so it caught me by surprise.

Kushiro D+2: This turn will begin with a major move by DS, which I think will reduce the risk of a major air battle but which increases the risk of encounters with hostile subs.






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Post #: 2923
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 6:37:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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Since D-Day, Erik has committed a lot of subs and SSX. They've taken a lot of damage and scored but a few hits (two DEs and one LST sunk, that's about it). He lost so many subs during the Siege of Shikuka and the Kuriles Campaign that I think he's run low (that's a solid hunch but not a certainty).

Kushiro D+2: Confirmed sunk.




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Post #: 2924
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 6:45:10 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Allied bombardment does decent job of targeting ground troops but a poor job of keeping Kushiro airfield suppressed. Damage there is at best "moderate," and my air force isn't targeting the field today. Erik doesn't hesitate to use damaged airfields if he doesn't see a risk of bombardment TF inbound.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 6:50:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: This action caught me by surprise. First, the IJN APDs hit like pros! Second, this is where DS was posted, so I sure didn't think Erik would commit surface ships here. Third, I 'm not sure what this TF is still doing here. I think DS has already left the hex. I triple-checked all TFs to make sure all orders were right - stop unloading, "Do Not Unload," follow TF, Direct/Absolute, etc. But I probably overlooked a few. Judging by some upcoming air activity, I had to miss a few.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 6:57:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Erik sends many, many fighter squadrons sweeping the hex where DS spent the last two days. Meaning: he's placed a very high priority on dealing with DS CAP.
He caught a few fighters flying LRCAP from either DS or Etorofu, but DS had moved away.

DS fighter squadrons are still in good shape with alot of reserves at Shikuka. LBA is a bit distant from the scene to offer good LRCAP but is in effective range for sweeps and escort missions.

As things stand three days into this campaign, the air war is going okay.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:01:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Hundreds upon hundreds of Erik's best fighters sweep this hex - usually 25 to 45 at a time. Ki-83, Jack, George, Frank, Oscar IVs. It's clear Erik intended to wear out DS CAP. This is why I wanted to get the heck out of Dodge. Two days in once place is iffy. Three days is bad moon rising.




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Post #: 2928
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:08:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: So I counted - 663 fighters swept the former DS hex.

That doesn't count all the A6M8s that will be flying escort missions, fighters posted as CAP over the IJA tank regiment in the vacant hex, etc.

What's the line from Lord of the Rings: What can we do against such reckless hate? But this isn't Lord of the Rings. It's Disney.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:12:59 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Coinciding with his fighter bushwhacking, Erik had strike aircraft set to sortie, with escorts. Several packages target nimble DDs at Kushiro and miss. Some others target vulnerable TFs that I left behind, somehow or other.

But this was scary times. I had a bunch of big TFs inbound from Shikuka to rendezvous with DS, including a Iowa TF. Had the rendezvous not taken place for any reason (such as DS getting slowed by riff-raff surface action), I might've suffered some big losses. As it stands, on the day I'll lose a handful of merchantmen but sidestep Erik's well-planned knockout punch.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:16:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: These are the ships that incurred HF/HD during the altercation with the enemy APD TF. Originally, I thought this was a separate TF, leading me to scratch my head that I had left so many naked TFs wandering about.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:21:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Erik sends carriers forward. They find only small targets, and those way over at Sapporo (two YMS have been patrolling there for a week, checking for mines and sinking one SSX).

I don't think this is a big carrier force. I think Erik again hoped to coax a reaction and set his strike aircraft, hoping that there would be targets after the Great Sweep Bushwhack that fizzled.

Yeah, I sidestepped something major here.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:28:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D-Day+2: Weather shut down most Allied morning air ops, but clears in the afternoon. Allied sweeps find no opposition over Kushiro and Bihoro (Erik had other things in mind) but modest CAP protecting the tank regiment in clear terrain.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:32:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+2: A series of Allied bombers target the enemy tank regiment, which was a key objective, inflicting many disablements but only a few outright destroyed (this is just one raid).

Allied units will arrive in this hex today, and I hope to boot the enemy tomorrow. I had expected a big air battle here, but Erik had his own designs.






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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/19/2018 7:33:37 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:35:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+2: Another raid (the last I'll show). The tank unit shouldn't be battle-worthy tomorrow. But enemy reinforcements may arrive, so there aren't any sure things.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:42:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+2: The largest of the Allied raids, mainly targeting ground troops to slow them down.

I stood down about 65% of my bombers today, after two days of heavy fighting. They'll rotate now. Enemy AA at Bihoro and Kushiro makes the going tough but naval bombardments help.

This is shaping up to be a massive contest. I mostly control the sea; Erik has the advantage in the air; but I can use distance, AI-targeting confusion, and naval bombardments to dampen his advantage a bit.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:42:30 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

What can we do against such reckless hate


"Ride out with me. Ride out and meet them............."

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 2937
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:43:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

What can we do against such reckless hate


"Ride out with me. Ride out and meet them............."


You got it, John. Really well done movie, you know? I think I'd have followed him.

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Post #: 2938
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:44:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I ended up tallying the damage to the IJA tank regiment - 24 destroyed, 105 disabled. So that unit's neutralized. Will enemy reinforcements arrive before I can boot it? And does Erik even want to send units into those clear terrain hexes?

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Post #: 2939
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/19/2018 7:53:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+2: Substantial elements of 1st and 5th Marine divisions have landed in the clear hex NE of Kushiro with no trouble at all. But this TF of bigger merchantmen is bringing in the heavy gear. This is awful. I was counting on two near-pristine divisions to hold this hex, but they are going to be battered, it seems.






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