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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 12:14:04 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: That first sweep missions yields the best results and shows the extent of Erik's countermeasures - he's employing Randy's in this battle for the first time, and I think this is the first appearance in the war of the Sam.

From this and what's to come, I feel sure Erik intends to duke it out over this hex. I like this environment and will adjust accordingly, allocating more good fighters to the sweep role tomorrow.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 12:23:09 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: Allied sweeps did a fine job, but there weren't quite enough of them. Too many enemy fighters remain. They tear into a bunch of 1EB strikes - land-based carrier air, some escorted, some naked.

These missions were based on "all hands on deck now, for this great battle." But the 1EB suffer grievous losses, as the Air Loss table (to be shown in just a little bit) will bear out.

One good aspect is that these raids will succeed in pretty much tuckering enemy opposition, so that the 4EB coming later won't suffer grievious losses.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 12:29:21 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: 150 undamaged Resource points remain at Kushiro, probably ripe for the plucking (all enemy fighters are engaged elsewhere). There is a chance that the Allied deliberate attack today will take the base, so a bunch of 1EB, 2EB and 4EB target this industry. They score a lot of hits.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 12:40:32 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: By the time the first 4EB strikes arrive over the contested hex, Allied sweeps and sacrificial 1EB-raids have cleared enemy fighters from the skies.

This is the largest of the day's raids. It's effective but not on yesterday's scale.

The roster of units "picked on" mentions only one division. There's part of another there, confirmed by yesterday's events. What I'm going to find later in the turn will be surprising.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 3:34:28 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: The Allied attack goes well but is not decisive. Japanese suffer considerably higher casualties (and proportionately drop now to about a 1:7 ratio). Forts drop to 3 on the 3:1 attack. My guys will need several days rest. The next attack probably takes the base.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 3:41:51 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+7: Allied bombardment in the contested inland hex reveals critical information - enemy reinforcements arrived. That means Erik allowed them to advance despite the absolute carnage his units suffered in this hex yesterday. That, in turn, means he is determined to take this hex to open an escape route for his Kushiro army. He'll probably succeed (my force is relatively weak) but his army (and later combined armies) will remain in this hex, subject to repeated sweep and bombing attacks, for better than a week. It's going to be all-out war under circumstances rarely advantageous to the Allies. There will be surprises (either of us could switch off to another target or pull other shenanigans), but this is a key opportunity to batter a very large Japanese army.








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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 4:01:11 AM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: Brutal air losses due to the ruinous 1EB missions over the contested hex. The points Erik harvested are real and meaningful, but the underlying numbers provide information critical to the air/ground battle for this hex.

The battle for this hex will be determined by which side runs out of air-worthy fighters first and by how long I can mount large bombing raids.

Today, the Japanese lost 116 fighters, the Allies 91 (and a healthy percentage of those were flying escort missions for the 1EB, which is disadvantageous).

Because Japanese fighters got tuckered out picking off the small guys, I lost one B-24J and no Superforts today (and next to none the preceding two days).

Erik's fighters have trouble competing during LRCAP missions. I think, but I'm not sure, that fatigue is or soon will be a major issue for his fighters.

Allied fighters and 4EB are in good shape to continue the fighting for days to come. The one thing I can do better is try to employ more sweeps and less 1EB sacrifices.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 7:34:47 AM   
Kofiman

 

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Status: offline 		If it's truly all-hands over Kushiro does that mean there are any momentarily soft targets for strategic bombing? Maybe some aircraft plants or a raid on Tokyo..

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 12:42:39 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		There are opportunities like that, and I've considered them. This turn Erik had more than 1500 fighters based on Hokkaido (!), leaving only about 300 over Tokyo and undoubtedly reduced numbers at other key bases.

To this point, I've deemed it more important to hit his vulnerable army and to take on his fighters in the best environment I'm likely to encounter. If the missions weren't succeeding or were taking unacceptable losses, I'd divert to something else.

My B-24s and B-29s have been flying for about seven consecutive days. They are accruing aircraft-frame fatigue and soon I'm going to have to stand down a lot of them. If I take them off this mission to fly a more distant mission, that will definitely reduce what I can do to his army. As of this moment, there's a chance they can so disrupt that 900-AV army that it won't be able to overcome my 200-AV army (that already happened on his opening attack). If that happens, he won't be able to extract his Kushiro army. So my bommbers will stay on this mission at least until the ground campaign is determined, and probably longer.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/29/2018 12:55:02 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 3:51:01 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: The cauldron boileth.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 4:04:43 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/15/45

Air Losses: Brutal air losses due to the ruinous 1EB missions over the contested hex. The points Erik harvested are real and meaningful, but the underlying numbers provide information critical to the air/ground battle for this hex.

The battle for this hex will be determined by which side runs out of air-worthy fighters first and by how long I can mount large bombing raids.

Today, the Japanese lost 116 fighters, the Allies 91 (and a healthy percentage of those were flying escort missions for the 1EB, which is disadvantageous).

Because Japanese fighters got tuckered out picking off the small guys, I lost one B-24J and no Superforts today (and next to none the preceding two days).

Erik's fighters have trouble competing during LRCAP missions. I think, but I'm not sure, that fatigue is or soon will be a major issue for his fighters.

Allied fighters and 4EB are in good shape to continue the fighting for days to come. The one thing I can do better is try to employ more sweeps and less 1EB sacrifices.





How have your pilots been faring in the recent encounters? WIA, KIA, MIA/recoveries... Are your replacements seasoned or green?


< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 10/29/2018 4:05:08 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 4:10:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The recent big air clashes have been over contested hexes in which both sides have large armies. Consequently, pilot losses have been manageable. I would assume ditto for Erik.

Fighter pilot reserves are the only area of concern for me. At this moment and at this pace of operations, the reserves are adequate to handle this key battle. Reserve Navy fighter pilots are thinnest, but the Corsairs are performing well in their role taking on LRCAP over the contested hex. Marine and Army pilot reserves are higher.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 7:25:46 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

There are opportunities like that, and I've considered them. This turn Erik had more than 1500 fighters based on Hokkaido (!), leaving only about 300 over Tokyo and undoubtedly reduced numbers at other key bases.

To this point, I've deemed it more important to hit his vulnerable army and to take on his fighters in the best environment I'm likely to encounter. If the missions weren't succeeding or were taking unacceptable losses, I'd divert to something else.


Have to agree with that. (Excellent and very enjoyable AAR, by the way.) Better to sweep his fighters on LRCAP than have to fight through them over their own bases. I see one odd thing with Kushiro D+7 results, however: how did so many Mustangs get downed? Were they escorting 1EB's?

One thing about the Wildcat FM-2's: they are still capable of taking down Japanese bombers. If Erik chooses to escort with first-string fighters, the Wildcat losses might be worth his diversion from the critical combat area.

_____________________________

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/29/2018 9:54:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Yup, the Mustangs were serving as escorts, which is not close to optimal.

It's okay to have good escorts for 4EB when you're sure they'll go in after the sweeps. That's the system I had working. But when I supplemented my attack with 1EB, I didn't take into account the fact that those missions might take place before or amidst the sweeps, as happened.

That's lesson 752,618 in the AE School of Hard Knocks, where I've been enrolled for 8+ years.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/30/2018 10:18:07 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

If it's truly all-hands over Kushiro does that mean there are any momentarily soft targets for strategic bombing? Maybe some aircraft plants or a raid on Tokyo..


quote:

There are opportunities like that, and I've considered them. This turn Erik had more than 1500 fighters based on Hokkaido (!), leaving only about 300 over Tokyo and undoubtedly reduced numbers at other key bases.

To this point, I've deemed it more important to hit his vulnerable army and to take on his fighters in the best environment I'm likely to encounter. If the missions weren't succeeding or were taking unacceptable losses, I'd divert to something else.


Once Hokkaido is taken or enough of it to provide enough railroad connected airbases, Dan can have more feasible targets on Honshu and stretch the defending antiaircraft guns and defending fighters even thinner. Pop the bombers in, bomb, and then send the flyable ones out while the other ones rail to another base - and possibly load onto ships. Then Eric will have to guess which base(s) the damaged aircraft are heading to. This is while the Allied Navies will be free to pursue other opportunities, hopefully to cause significant damage themselves and/or spread the aerial defenses even thinner.

Very sneaky on the ground around Kushiro but I won't comment further, for now.


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Post #: 3045
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/31/2018 8:42:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		A new turn just arrived from Erik, but I'm concerned about him. Over the past three months, turn-around time for turns has basically doubled. Over the past couple of weeks its tripled. We've gone from always 1-2 turns per day to 1 every three days or so. More worrisome is that he sent a message Sunday to the effect that he'd been busy but that things would return to "normal" on Monday. Then I heard nothing from him until today. When the turn came, I figured he's add a message: "Oops, been busy. Sorry for the lag time." But no message at all.

I won't ask him about it. I don't want to breathe down his neck. But I think his enthusiasm is waning.

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Post #: 3046
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 12:51:41 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: As a new turn unfolds, the battles continue to rage here and in the inland contested hex. As the turn begins, I'm most interested in seeing how many squads the Japanese can bleed here, during a non-attack turn for the Allies, and whether the Allied air force can continue to score well over the contested hex. I'm about to learn that it was an darned ugly day for Erik.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 12:58:21 AM   
Canoerebel


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Hakodate: Small RN DD force on a raiding mission. The primary objectives are to check for mines and to "surprise" any large force (like carriers) that might transit the straits here. This is the second or third turn in which small Allied combat TFs have done this.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:04:38 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: A modest bombardment that hopefully keeps the enemy troops disrupted and dissuades Erik from basing aircraft here.

A similar TF was ordered to bombard Bihoro but didn't make it today, for reasons I don't yet know.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:09:12 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: Another fast transport landing designed to trigger enemy arty bombardment.

Today's mission will be particularly successful. Triggering the self-destructive bombardments has been perhaps the most effective Allied strategy in taking these heavily garrisoned islands and bases - on average, markedly more effective than ship bombardments. Erik hasn't taken concerted action to stop them, but his most reliable method would be to impose a naval blockade, and he's woefully short on good ships.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:15:39 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: Allied sweeps are numerous and particularly effective today. Even the Hellcats score well. So many sweeps come in that all enemy aircraft are eliminated or retire, leaving the hex open to Allied 2EB and 4EB raids (no 1EB were scheduled today).






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:22:06 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: There are 101 Resource points left. A modest number of strikes by 1EB and 2EB score a goodly number of hits.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:32:02 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro: Allied fighters having swept clean the sky over the contested hex, the 4EB come in unopposed. These are the two largest of a long series of strikes resulting in extensive damage to the Japanese army here.

Erik is now caught in a very difficult position. His troops are probably only making six or eight miles a day in retiring from the hex - probably about seven turns to clear, and perhaps as many as 12. This is the third turn of retirement. He has to keep LRCAP over the hex, but his fighters are paying a heavy price. And no matter what he does, his army gets battered turn after turn.

I've been fortunate that weather has allowed missions every day thus far. Erik is praying for rain.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:52:42 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: This was a "rest day" for most of the Allied army at Kushiro, yet the Japanese auto-bombardment and a limited Allied attack tore apart the defenders, resulting in (apparently) 33% casualties. The base should fall next attack, which could be tomorrow (if my ground units have recovered enough) or the day after.

In the contested inland hex, Erik's army didn't attack, even though his raw AV outnumbers mine 5:1. The air attacks have bludgeoned his units. I think all he wants to do is evacuate the hex and limit the damage, as best he can. But he's gotten himself mired in a tar pit here.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 1:56:01 AM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+8: Oops, I missed the screen capture of the Allied bombardment here, but it showed one enemy division at 0, one (7th) at around 20, and the third in the low triple digits. Erik has accumulated a tremendous number of disabled squads now. It shouldn't be long until the bombs convert disabled squads into destroyed ones. If that happens - and only weather will prevent it, I think - it's going to be ugly.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 2:05:20 AM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: A good day for the Allies, but by no means a "turkey shoot." The Japanese lost 4x fighters, which is promising (about 112 to about 25). But Erik had a lot of second generation fighters on LRCAP duty, and it seems like a lot of them wore out rather than getting shot down.

Allied losses were modest. I can keep this up as long as his army is in the contested hex.

I lost just one Superfort today. B-29 losses have been remarkably light during this campaign, which is terrific. However, they've been flying for about five straight days. I've been rotating them, but today pressed nearly all in service to apply maximum damage to the enemy ground forces, which I thought might have enough oomph to attack, evict my small army, and thus open the hex as a retreat path for Kushiro. Mission accomplished, so I'll have to rotate my Superforts and Liberators more aggressively now so that ops losses don't mount excessively.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 2:53:43 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Today, Erik started with 475 fighters over the contested hex. Yesterday, he started with 700+. So his fighters are probably tuckered out after days of duty here. But he's also rotating them.

My concern is that he might divert his fighters as the spear point for a massive raid against Shikuka or Death Star. The latter is probably unlikely, as I think he'll want his first all-out DS strike to be maximum with well-rested aircraft.

He's in a tight spot now, and his habit in the past has been to attack hard somewhere when pressed elsewhere. Where and how he might strike is at the top of my list of things to ponder.

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Post #: 3057
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 3:14:29 AM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: Today was particularly good for the Allies - light losses incurred, moderate to heavy damage inflicted. I don't think Erik will meekly accept this new model of punishment. I think he'll figure out a way to strike hard somewhere. I'll spend tomorrow morning issuing orders with that in mind.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 10:38:58 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		What the heck are tankers doing in the middle of a huge battle? To valuable for bait and not significant enough to be worth going after. If he is pulling out fuel and oil that might tell you a lot about what your opponent thinks your intentions are. Valuable intel there.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/1/2018 10:39:33 AM   
adarbrauner

 

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Status: offline 		Dan, please, do not land small units or fragments just to cause the "auto-bombardment"

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