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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:33:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Thunderbolts arrive to find just 101 fighters on CAP. They do a good job but not a spectacular one.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:35:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: 74 enemy fighters on CAP at the start of this sweep.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:40:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: 9 Thunderbolts take on 51 fighters on CAP, scoring a 9:1 victory. No question now: Allied bombers aren't going to blunder into heavy, fresh enemy CAP.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:43:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Enemy CAP has dwindled to 23.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:47:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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Contested Hex: Lightnings down half of the remaining dozen.


That's it for enemy CAP. Lots more sweepers to come - including Mustangs - but the skies will be clear.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:56:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first Allied bombers find no remaining opposition over the hex and score well but not decisively. This raid was at 8k. I may drop the bombers to 5k tomorrow, as enemy AA is badly disrupted/disabled.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:01:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: The Superforts also score well. There are so many targets in this hex that Allied bombers are still mostly scoring disablements rather than "destroyed." I don't know if enough time remains to change that before the enemy army leaves the hex.

Many more small raids occur before and after this one, scoring in relatively small numbers that cumulatively add to the carnage.

I don't know if Erik will continue to put up LRCAP. I do know I'm going to change my model a bit tomorrow, in hopes of springing an ambush while still focusing on his army and LRCAP.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:06:13 PM   
Anachro


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Damn, those are some nice bombing results, but perhaps not unusual in late game. The carnage evokes in my mind images of the famous "Highway of Death" from the gulf war.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:15:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Bihoro: Oops, Erik mistimed an attack to the moment the Allied infantry came up.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:22:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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Kushiro D+11: Limited Allied attack tears into worn-out enemy troops.

Just prior to combat, the movie showed Allied AA damaging and downing a lot of Emilys. I think these were squadrons pulling out troops over the past week or so. By doing this Erik saved a lot of troops and points but hastened the fall of the base.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:22:50 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Another fast transport landing. I think I did this on every D+ day, except possibly one. It definitely played a major role in taking the base - this, successfully sealing the base from reinforcements, and basically controlling the seas were key parts of the plan.

I've had frank and good discussions with Erik about everything. He and I are A-Okay about everything going on in the game. We're enjoying the match. It's tough and taut and well-fought. I'm fortunate to be facing an opponent of his caliber, both as a player and as a man.






He can tolerate this practice but honestly it's not a good one. Not at all.

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 11/5/2018 2:25:21 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:23:15 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 11/5/2018 2:25:00 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:23:36 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 11/5/2018 2:24:38 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:24:02 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:24:19 PM   
adarbrauner

 

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:27:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Both armies are gassed, and there's a chance Erik can open a retreat path for his Kushiro army...though it would probably get destroyed by Allied LBA by retreating to this hex.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:30:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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In Kushiro and the contested hex, Erik has five divisions at "0" AV. At Bihoro, he has one that may be at less than 200 AV. There are also lots of mixed brigades and an amphibious brigade in similar straits.

Considering the air war difficulties and the condition of his ground troops, he may elect to retire from Bihoro. That's what I'm hoping.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:35:53 PM   
Canoerebel


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Air Losses: A very good day for the Allies, but that long string of 15:1, 9:1, etc. victories ultimately translates into about 3:1. That's a ratio I can live with, even with my thin fighter pools, but Erik will try to avoid the LRCAP mismatches that have bedeviled him this past week.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 2:41:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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Fighter Losses: As usual, this is the key to Allied fortunes. I think the Allies prevailed at modestly over 3:1.

Two Superforts lost today, which I think is two more than the past two days. 4EB losses have been remarkably light during this bombing campaign.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 4:28:08 PM   
MakeeLearn


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What is G2 telling you, from the last few months of SigInt?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 5:33:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm not sure I follow you, MakeeLearn. SigInt is especially important in crafting distant invasions and estimating distant enemy strengths. It's not too helpful when everything's happening in a confined area, and that area is under reconnaissance, nav search, and other forms of surveillance. NoPac is the center of the war, and the SigInt that I get merely tells me things I already know.

But there are other theaters, more distant from the heartland, and there SigInt is helping paint a picture that is helpful in evaluating possibilities, weakenesses and strongpoints.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 5:36:58 PM   
RangerJoe


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Nice work at Kushiro. It looks like if he has to rebuild his units from any survivors of the onslaught, they will take a lot of supply, and devices. Their morale will be shot and their experience should drop dramatically. So even if they are rebuilt, they will not be that combat effective for awhile. If they retreat to the open hex, you can grind them some more before they would have a chance to make it to Bihoro.

The Kuriles: Beat him while he is down, stomp on him, don't leave an enemy behind you, make sure that the enemy is dead.

A nice, timely reinforcement at Bihoro. It looks like the units arrived there without a lot of their supporting devices. Do you think that you could reinforce there before Kushiro is free of the enemy?

If you can keep the units in the open hex, then those units in Kushiro and in the open hex are dead if you can take Bihoro. So you might consider how you can take Bihoro sooner than later.

The air war is going your way now, keep up the good work. By the way, did you know that about 20% of the op losses actually come back as replacement air frames?

_____________________________

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“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 5:57:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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My replies in red, Ranger Joe:

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Nice work at Kushiro. It looks like if he has to rebuild his units from any survivors of the onslaught, they will take a lot of supply, and devices. Their morale will be shot and their experience should drop dramatically. So even if they are rebuilt, they will not be that combat effective for awhile. If they retreat to the open hex, you can grind them some more before they would have a chance to make it to Bihoro.

The Kuriles: Beat him while he is down, stomp on him, don't leave an enemy behind you, make sure that the enemy is dead. Yes, that's the plan.

A nice, timely reinforcement at Bihoro. It looks like the units arrived there without a lot of their supporting devices. Do you think that you could reinforce there before Kushiro is free of the enemy? You're right, they are light on devices, because they landed at a non-base hex. Reinforcements are inbound from as far as Kushiro, and some via ship, but I think they'll arrive to late to influence the outcome at Bihoro.

If you can keep the units in the open hex, then those units in Kushiro and in the open hex are dead if you can take Bihoro. So you might consider how you can take Bihoro sooner than later. The key is to persuade Erik to evacuate. That truly makes things easy. If he reinforces, my guys are too "light" (lacking support, heavy weapons) to take the base until I bring up serious reinforcements or pound the base to death, which will take weeks.

The air war is going your way now, keep up the good work. By the way, did you know that about 20% of the op losses actually come back as replacement air frames? I didn't know that. I don't think I've ever seen that before.


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 5:58:56 PM   
Canoerebel


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2/19/45

NoPac: The big picture.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 6:13:23 PM   
jwolf

 

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Considering the risk you noted at and adjacent to Bihoro, why not shift your sweep and bomb campaign to Bihoro itself, and forget about the battered units next door?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 6:17:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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A whole Japanese army is in the open and subject to destruction. No way I'd change targets to select one that probably has six or more forts. This is a rare opportunity.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 6:29:16 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not sure I follow you, MakeeLearn. SigInt is especially important in crafting distant invasions and estimating distant enemy strengths. It's not too helpful when everything's happening in a confined area, and that area is under reconnaissance, nav search, and other forms of surveillance. NoPac is the center of the war, and the SigInt that I get merely tells me things I already know.

But there are other theaters, more distant from the heartland, and there SigInt is helping paint a picture that is helpful in evaluating possibilities, weakenesses and strongpoints.



It's good to have a center of focus, but not to the point of being myopic or disregarding the peripheral.
War is multidimensional, things not "On Stage" are still part of the Play.
Patterns, movements, what is being sent where - over a period of weeks.

Over a period of time...
What ports are getting lots of activity?
Are resources/oil/fuel moving from a staging area into Japan?
Ships moving into repair ports?
Are ships/LCUs being concentrated?
Are air units being moved to certain bases for rest/refitting?

Bull head butting has it's advantages, but don't miss a chance for enfilading fire.






< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 11/5/2018 6:38:39 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 6:43:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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There are things going on in other theaters, some now and some planned down the road. But the center of the war is NoPac, so I'm focusing there. It helps keep the AAR manageable. Wwhile back, I tried to include Burma in the AAR, but things got really tedious.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 7:00:12 PM   
RangerJoe


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My mistook, not ops losses per se but rather the write offs:

quote:

7.2.1.14 OPERATIONAL LOSSES TO AIRCRAFT

Operational Losses (or Op Losses) occur due to accidents or other untoward events that are not a direct result of being shot at by the enemy. These losses occur to squadrons based on several factors, including the range of the Mission, the experience of the pilot, and if the aircraft is flying from a carrier. Any long-range Carrier-based aircraft strikes (of two or more hexes in distance) will cause an extra chance of operational losses to be incurred. However, if a player’s base has sufficient supplies they may note that any damaged aircraft will likely be repaired before the next Orders Phase.

Op losses include planes lost returning to base and planes crashing, planes destroyed or damaged on take-off and landing, and pilots as a result getting killed, wounded, or captured.

Write offs are a new type of Ops loss for A/C. A write off may occur when a machine returns with too much damage to repair. Pilot survival rates are higher for write offs than Ops losses. It is assumed that the plane is cannibalized for parts, and thus after 5 write offs an extra plane is considered repaired and becomes available.


So while a "Write Off" is an Ops loss, an Ops loss is not necessarily a "Write Off" but some of them end up being available. I might look into this further. I think that historically, crashed planes were cannibalized for usable parts but I don't know how this is modeled in the game. I do know that an AVG P-40B did land in a rice paddy, was repaired, and then flown out days later.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 8:12:01 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are things going on in other theaters, some now and some planned down the road. But the center of the war is NoPac, so I'm focusing there. It helps keep the AAR manageable. Wwhile back, I tried to include Burma in the AAR, but things got really tedious.



Iam bring in some of the real world training I've done.

Not talking about a major shift of operations. Gleaning SigInt for that opportunity - Special Operations - is there a Japanese Capital Ship moving some where, a oil/fuel TF on the move, a base where the majority of squadrons are resting/training - ripe for the picking. Is there a sector where you can just make noise and really rattle his cage?

I can say this without guilt because I've not read the Opfor-AAR in a good while.

In the real world you would have staffs for such doings, but don't miss a opportunity to throw the enemy off balance or get a big propaganda strike.


< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 11/5/2018 8:22:30 PM >

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