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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 12:18:07 AM   
Canoerebel


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Paramushiro: The day features a number of raids against this base. Most of the raids are by 2EB in modest numbers, but a few B-24 squadrons from Shikuka take part. Damage is uniformly light.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 12:27:22 AM   
Canoerebel


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Paramushiro: Erik's army doesn't attack. I don't think it would have succeeded, but it's still a relief. Eventually the Allied army should recover enough to handle this little debacle.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 12:33:02 AM   
Canoerebel


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Mergui: No sudden capitulation but some progress.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 1:26:06 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		At Mergui, the Allied army will attack again tomorrow. A DD TF and a CA/DD TF will bombard at range 1, since the two enemy units lack shore guns.

An enemy unit at Tavoy has a movement dot towards Meguie. Bombers will target it. A small detachment is in a blocking position.

There's a movement dot at Rangoon, but it's too early to suspect Erik might withdraw there. I'm not even sure the fall of Mergui would persuade him. He might consider bringing KB into theater. He'd be able to dominate for awhile, until more Allied carriers arrive, which may take months. That tactic would hinder him in other theaters, which I hope to take advantage of later.


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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 4:09:46 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

At Mergui, the Allied army will attack again tomorrow. A DD TF and a CA/DD TF will bombard at range 1, since the two enemy units lack shore guns.

An enemy unit at Tavoy has a movement dot towards Meguie. Bombers will target it. A small detachment is in a blocking position.

There's a movement dot at Rangoon, but it's too early to suspect Erik might withdraw there. I'm not even sure the fall of Mergui would persuade him. He might consider bringing KB into theater. He'd be able to dominate for awhile, until more Allied carriers arrive, which may take months. That tactic would hinder him in other theaters, which I hope to take advantage of later.



If I were him I would reinforce Tavoy. From there it is only a one jungle-hex/one road walk to get to the open plain leading to Ayuthia and Bangkok.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 11/19/2018 4:11:38 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 2:03:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: A busy map, and includes an outline for Allied plans here leading to the Next Next Big Thing. And I think that will be the last Big Thing prior to Russian activation, which takes place in about five months.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 2:26:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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SEAC: Long-term planning in this theater.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 6:29:10 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		What is your PP situation? Do you have enough to start buying out Chinese units?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 6:51:06 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I have about 650 PP. Not enough to go on a spending spree.

The situation with the Chinese troops is unusual, do to an apparent House Rule violation by the original Allied player. The HR required the usual PP payment to buy out restricted units. But he moved all the Chinese units to Karachi, apparently to save them from the Japanese onslaught at the start of the game.

So started the game with 10k Chinese AV at Karachi. Gradually, I've moved them all to Burma and then across the border into China, where they sit today. Many of them are permanent restricted. I think I have one or two unrestricted units on the MLR down around Rangoon. I'm not going to buy out any others. The hole thing just felt kind of "off," so I'm erring on the side of using all Chinese units in China only, with the one or two exceptions just mentioned.

But I like that use. One of these days, Erik's units on his MLR, deep in the mountains, are going to look back and find Allied armies behind them.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 6:53:27 PM   
Lokasenna


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Status: offline 		I wouldn't worry about whether he "extracts" from "northern" SE Asia to combat a landing in Malaysia. The more he sends south, the more that can get cut off except via seaborne extraction - which is not always a possibility.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:40:46 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hachinoe: A handful of RAF night bombers do some damage. Prior thereto, a series of small PBY Liberator strikes came in, opposed by about 15 Nicks. The Nicks downed a handful of the Liberators. Overall this night mission wasn't a success.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:45:05 PM   
Canoerebel


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Mergui: Smaller TFs bombard, scoring pretty well against infrastructure at a distance of "1" but failing to score hits against the infantry (although disruption may have occurred).

It looks like I don't need to risk the BBs here - pure DD TFs score just as well.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:48:21 PM   
Canoerebel


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Paramushiro: LCI gunships don't score quite as well as yesterday, but still seem more effective than BB bombardments and sizeable air strikes.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:54:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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Bangkok: The Allies have been sweeping and bombing Bangkok regularly. It's been many weeks since Erik had any fighters here, but he "installed" an ambush today.

Allied fighters performed pretty well, tuckering the opposition enough that the scattered sorties by Allied bombers weren't hit hard.

It's rare for Erik to post sizeable air contingents down here, but the invasion of Mergui changed that. He has a lot of stuff posted all around the base. I'm weighing whether to try to employ my carriers as a CAP trap, but the odds may be too iffy.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:58:07 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		You need BBs and a good D/L on target (previous day recon + night recon + bombardment recon to deal with high forts. Mergui does not have forts 6+, so smaller shells can have an effect. Having troops on the ground doing attacks also seems to help the D/L.
I bet if you watch the animation closely, the LCIs come in very close to bombard.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/19/2018 11:59:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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Near Mergui: Allied bombers hit the enemy unit moving towards Mergui from Tavoy. It's a brigade.

Erik did the same thing, sending bombers against the little Allied detachment in the hex N of Mergui.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/20/2018 2:05:17 AM   
Canoerebel


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Hachinoe: Really odd things happened at Hachinoe. Weather shut down all my sweeping fighters from Etorufu, Uruppu, Kushiro, Wakkanai and Toyohara. Weather permitted ops from Shikuka, the bomber base, and the bombers and a few escorts flew in before any sweepers.

Despite what seemed like the worst fortune possible, the bombers do okay and losses are probably acceptable. Some sweeps fly later and do okay.

There was a sync bug version in which all the fighters swept first. Unexpectedly, they performed poorly, losing most of the sweeps. But they clear the air of enemy fighters, so that the bombers scored much better.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/20/2018 2:13:00 AM   
Canoerebel


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Paramushiro: Erik may be transporting in 56th Div. now. It makes sense. I have another division 100% prepped. It's scattered about, after helping with Kushiro. I'm reassembling it and will bring it up here in a week or two.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/20/2018 2:17:45 AM   
Canoerebel


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Mergui: This combat looked pretty good. IJ AV dropped precipitously during the animation. The two units Erik is bringing in via air transport or tiny. He'll have to do a lot more and it might not make a difference.

Forts drop to 3, which is key.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/20/2018 1:36:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Tomorrow will feature a final - and risky - test of Allied sweeping ability. The focus will be Sapporo, where Erik's had 600 to 800 fighters for many weeks now. A fair number of those fighters are engaged in daily sweeps, and a fair number of the squadrons were involved in that protracted LRCAP over the contested hex. There is a chance that his fighter quality has degraded during this campaign - unlikely, but possible.

I suspect he'll have at least 250-300 fighters posted on CAP. I'll be using a mix of all kinds of fighters - more Army than Navy - to see if there seem to be signs of organic weakness. I can afford one rough day to test the hypothesis. If it doesn't work, I'll know. If it does, I'll go from there.

The northern part of Honshu doesn't offer much in the way of strategic targets. Alot of what's there has already been hit. So I'm definitely going to need new airbases to the west or south of Japan in order to threaten Kyushu and southern Honshu. That's part of the long-term plan, looking out about two or three months.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/21/2018 11:13:35 AM   
aleajactaest10044


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Status: offline 		Just catching up on your AAR..one question..Did this really happen or was it the Sync Bug?

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/photo_view.asp?file=0;4555425

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/21/2018 11:47:19 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		It really happened in the game. It didn't happen in the sync bug version, which was the "movie," so I'm not positive if it was part of the Mergui invasion force or most of the troops heading to the non-base hex to the NE.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/21/2018 11:48:45 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Leaving on family trip, back tomorrow night. No time to post in detail. Mergui fell on the 28th, which is important. The sweep test over Sapporo was hotly contested with 1:1 results that gave me good info on what to do and not to do from here.

Y'all American folk have a Happy Thanksgiving. See you soon.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 7:47:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: Heavy Allied sweep activity over Sapporo on the 28th produced 1:1 results that do not warrant further contested sweeps. I'll continue to selective sweeps. On the 1st, loading commenced for the invasion of Shasukotan, south of Onnekotan Jima. On the 2nd, Death Star and it's fighters will attempt an ambush of enemy bombers targeting the Allied army retiring from Bihoro.

SEAC: British/Indian army takes Mergui on the 28th. There's a chance the Allies can reach and take Tavoy before reinforcements arrive. I have mixed feelings about the possibility Erik could withdraw from his Rangoon-area MLR. I need that base eventually but want his MLR to remain far forward for another month or two.








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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 8:23:01 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		If he left his CD guns but withdrew everything that he could by air, wouldn't that make the base a nice target for a paradrop? They would not get any disruption from his anti-invasion gunfire. You could trying reconning by firepower with some bombardment task forces.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 8:26:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		He'll have high forts and 2x defensive terrain and almost certainly the equivalent of a mixed brigade of infantry.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 9:53:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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There are mainly two things of interest today - three USN DDs set to bombard Sapporo, and Death Star moving to Hokkaido to (hopefully) interdict Erik's regular bombing runs.

Raid on Sapporo: The first prong of the plan goes very well. The DDs encounter and sink four E-class ships and two SSX. They still have enough ammo to deliver an effective bombardment, destroying more than a dozen Japanese aircraft.

You've seen my long string of tepid bombardments, so this one is a welcome change. One DD hits a mine, but the TF makes its escape and doesn't undergo any air attacks during the daylight hours.

Erik will adjust - he hasn't kept sufficient nav search around Wakkanai. He'll beaf up his mines, but any time an Allied TF is in the vicinity, he may have to withdraw his aircraft. That's useful info.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 9:59:55 PM   
Canoerebel


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Death Star: DS takes position at the contested hex and downs more than a dozen search aircraft.

I had doubts DS would cover the required five hexes, as a few support TFs and CVE TFs might've slowed down movement. The question is: will Erik's bombers sortie against the Allied army moving through this hex?




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 10:07:58 PM   
zuluhour


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Status: offline 		......there may be penalties for operating in the coastal hex.....maybe only on landings? (only fleet carriers)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/23/2018 10:20:16 PM   
RangerJoe


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Status: offline 		I think that it is only base hexes.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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― Julia Child


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