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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit?

 
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:06:43 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Except you are completely wrong in reality. So far you have shown that your sources consists of two things:
1. Your feelings
2. Steel Beasts



actually its
1. steel beasts
2. calculation on cross sectional area based on the image from steel beasts using the length of the tank as an approximate "ruler"

far more accurate "feelings" though no true substitute for a professionally done calculations

quote:

Combined with the replaceable composite guard (a type of polyurethane punching pans that could also be upgraded with, for example, ceramic rods) in the tower, protection levels were well above what the western ammunition could break through. However, there were large ballistic holes (ie surfaces without protection from special pans) and in addition, explosive reactive solutions were only effective at 50% of the projected target surface.


vasily fofanov quotes it at 60%... havent seen data on K5 coverage from tankograd... regardless that is simply K5 coverage and does not include protection performance against a round...

the one you have linked for the T-80 against the DM33 is a good one but only accounts for the crew compartment without accounting for the whole cross sectional area of the vehicle... and therefore is a biased calculation for the purpose of this game...

(in reply to noooooo)
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:09:57 PM   
noooooo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

quote:

Except you are completely wrong in reality. So far you have shown that your sources consists of two things:
1. Your feelings
2. Steel Beasts



actually its
1. steel beasts
2. calculation on cross sectional area based on the image from steel beasts using the length of the tank as an approximate "ruler"

far more accurate "feelings" though no true substitute for a professionally done calculations

quote:

Combined with the replaceable composite guard (a type of polyurethane punching pans that could also be upgraded with, for example, ceramic rods) in the tower, protection levels were well above what the western ammunition could break through. However, there were large ballistic holes (ie surfaces without protection from special pans) and in addition, explosive reactive solutions were only effective at 50% of the projected target surface.


vasily fofanov quotes it at 60%... havent seen data on K5 coverage from tankograd... regardless that is simply K5 coverage and does not include protection performance against a round...

the one you have linked for the T-80 against the DM33 is a good one but only accounts for the crew compartment without accounting for the whole cross sectional area of the vehicle... and therefore is a biased calculation for the purpose of this game...


Kontakt-5 is effective against KE penetrators. It is supposed to be able to reduce the effectiveness of sabots up to 40% and T-80U armor estimates all take it into consideration.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:14:58 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Kontakt-5 is effective against KE penetrators. It is supposed to be able to reduce the effectiveness of sabots up to 40% and T-80U armor estimates all take it into consideration.


20% effective against KE penetrators... relikt is the one rated at 40% effective... regardless the improved protection of the Object 219AS turret is capable of defeating the DM-33 without K5 at certain portions of the turret as you see with the very image youve sent...

here

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/29/2018 3:38:14 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:38:34 PM   
noooooo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

quote:

Kontakt-5 is effective against KE penetrators. It is supposed to be able to reduce the effectiveness of sabots up to 40% and T-80U armor estimates all take it into consideration.


20% effective against KE penetrators... relikt is the one rated at 40% effective... regardless the improved protection of the Object 219 turret is capable of defeating the DM-33 without K5 at certain portions of the turret as you see with the very image youve sent...

here

quote:

Kontakt-5


The estimates for the effectiveness of K-5 vary wildly, some say 40%, some say 20%, some 30% and there might be some truth to all of them as newer rounds are designed to specifically defeat K-5 while older rounds are much more affected by them.

Anyway, the point is Steel Beasts is hardly a source to take as gospel. You wouldn't be making the game closer to reality, just closer to Steel Beasts.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:47:31 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:


The estimates for the effectiveness of K-5 vary wildly, some say 40%, some say 20%, some 30% and there might be some truth to all of them as newer rounds are designed to specifically defeat K-5 while older rounds are much more affected by them.



quote:

The estimates for the effectiveness of K-5 vary wildly, some say 40%, some say 20%, some 30% and there might be some truth to all of them as newer rounds are designed to specifically defeat K-5 while older rounds are much more affected by them.


the manufacturer along with several people (zaloga) estimated K5 at 20% effectiveness vs KE... relikt was the one estimated at 40% effectiveness

but yes you are correct... monoblock penetrators like the (to some extent) DM33 M829 M829A1 and 3BM32 vant all have reduced performance against both NERA and ERA type armor... segmented penetrators like the DM53 M829A3 and surprisingly the 3BM42 "mango" suffer against RHA in exchange for increased performance vs NERA and ERA... hence why i stated the 3bm32 and 3bm42 is underperforming considerably ingame

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 2:51:38 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Anyway, the point is Steel Beasts is hardly a source to take as gospel. You wouldn't be making the game closer to reality, just closer to Steel Beasts.


i dont... steel beasts failed to take account of the V80 + high hardness steel penetration criteria for russian guns hence why all russian ammunition have substandard penetration in Steel beasts... but although i also dont trust the RHAE equivalents posted for steel beasts i do at least trust to some extent the armor`s cross sectional profile since the data agrees with the profile described by several sources ive found... i particularly trust the T-80 M1 and leopard profiles to an extent... but not the RHA equivalent (as different criterion gives different equivalents)

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 3:30:04 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Again, in the game a weakshot hit is BY NO MEANS a penetration. I have demonstrated this yet you continue to regurgitate the same arguments.


also that statement is beyond my point...a strawman argument... my point is the probability of a weakspot HIT is lower than 15% as the cross sectional area of the weakspot for the abrams is lower than 15%...this makes the probability of a penetration is even lower than "a third of 15%" especially due to the 1970s ammunition....

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 3:59:51 PM   
Lowlaner2012

 

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I think we will have to agree to disagree, its not me and nooooo you have to convince its the devs....

Cheers

< Message edited by Lowlaner2012 -- 11/29/2018 4:04:02 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 4:21:24 PM   
gbem

 

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im simply asking for 2 new armor values... a per tank basis frontal weakspot percent chance and a weakspot armor value... not an overall reduction of hit chance to 5%... that ways vehicles with smaller like the leopard 2a4 and T-80U are given their appropriate weakspot value (6%) but also allow for low penetration guns (200+KE effective) to go through some of those tanks (T-80U) all the while sparing tanks like that have less weak weakspots (400+ KE effective)(leopard 2a4)... meanwhile tanks with bigger weakspots like the abrams can sit at higher percentage chances

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/29/2018 4:23:09 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 4:23:35 PM   
gbem

 

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if not then at the very least let the weakspot chance be moddable... that ways we can all be happy until multiplayer is added... in which case id be a strong contender for a more realistic model than a 15% universal number

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/29/2018 4:24:24 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 4:37:34 PM   
Red2112

 

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I do think that SB gets it data from Janes Armour and Artillery (year) books, as the one below...
https://www.amazon.com/Janes-Armour-Artillery-1994-95/dp/0710611544

Anyhow, here´s some resources...

https://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613534/index.pdf

http://ciar.org/ttk/mbt/armor/Modern_Armor_I.pdf

http://fofanov.armor.kiev.ua/Tanks/TRIALS/19991020.html

http://www.theworldwars.net/resources/protect.htm

Red

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 4:53:36 PM   
gbem

 

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well SB penetration data is problematic... fails to take account of soviet penetration criteria which is far more strict than american penetration criteria... using data gathered from inetres kotsch and tankograd i managed to compare the 3 rounds of the late 1980s the M829 DM33 and 3BM42 "mango" (without accounting for the segmented penetrator for the mango) and figured out using the odermatt equation that the 3BM42 had the highest penetration followed by the DM33 and and lastly the M829 in a standardized test

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 5:05:19 PM   
noooooo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

im simply asking for 2 new armor values... a per tank basis frontal weakspot percent chance and a weakspot armor value... not an overall reduction of hit chance to 5%... that ways vehicles with smaller like the leopard 2a4 and T-80U are given their appropriate weakspot value (6%) but also allow for low penetration guns (200+KE effective) to go through some of those tanks (T-80U) all the while sparing tanks like that have less weak weakspots (400+ KE effective)(leopard 2a4)... meanwhile tanks with bigger weakspots like the abrams can sit at higher percentage chances


This would be a big task to add especially with the database size and IMO there are more important tasks to focus on for the devs such as pathfinding, cell 1 unit limit etc. but if they are willing to do it in the future and they find it is worth the effort then maybe.


quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

if not then at the very least let the weakspot chance be moddable... that ways we can all be happy until multiplayer is added... in which case id be a strong contender for a more realistic model than a 15% universal number


Yes.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 5:13:08 PM   
Lowlaner2012

 

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Yes I think point 2, the weakspot % chance being modable would make everybody happy :-)

Cheers

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/29/2018 11:39:41 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

This would be a big task to add especially with the database size and IMO there are more important tasks to focus on for the devs such as pathfinding, cell 1 unit limit etc. but if they are willing to do it in the future and they find it is worth the effort then maybe.


agreed... but when the game fully fleshes out this would be a neat addition dont u think?


quote:

Yes I think point 2, the weakspot % chance being modable would make everybody happy :-)

Cheers


the problem with point 2 is that tanks like the leopard 2a4 or a T-80U have the same weakspot size as an abrams... which is completely unrealistic... maybe in the long run the first point should be done but i do agree that it should not be a priority... although i do think the helicopter issue is a priority as the airgame is almost unplayable unless you use modded SAMs

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 1:21:20 AM   
Veitikka


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quote:

ORIGINAL: noooooo

Again in my opinion the best solution is to make the value moddable. Once it's moddable then everyone can change it to fit their own ideas. Hopefully this is one feature added in the future.


Perhaps in the future there can be one moddable global value. I doubt anyone ever will go through hundreds of vehicles and calculate the 'correct' values for all armor facings.


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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 1:28:50 AM   
Veitikka


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lieste

I seem to recall this was at one point a triangular distribution (from 100% at 85% coverage, to 20% at 0% coverage)

Is this not still the case, or have I miss-remembered?




I don't remember all the discussions and experimentation we had, but currently there's a simple 15% random chance for it.


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Know thyself!

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 2:14:59 AM   
dpabrams

 

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Hard to be objective, we all have bias. We are slaved to what data there is and much of it is grey. The database for AB is really good when I compare to my sources, which are the same sources as everyone else. I have found some data that I corrected based on the weight of other sources. For example, small caliber HEI that had NO AP rating (Marder 20mm), incorrect missile speeds (TOW's AB rated for 178 mps/ actual 320 mps) and the 73mm 2A28 early warhead with a range of 1200 meters (should be 9000-1000) to name some. You can't expect the Dev's to get it all right but AB is very close 90% of the time in my opinion. That's why we can mod the data base.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 3:06:42 AM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Hard to be objective, we all have bias. We are slaved to what data there is and much of it is grey. The database for AB is really good when I compare to my sources, which are the same sources as everyone else. I have found some data that I corrected based on the weight of other sources. For example, small caliber HEI that had NO AP rating (Marder 20mm), incorrect missile speeds (TOW's AB rated for 178 mps/ actual 320 mps) and the 73mm 2A28 early warhead with a range of 1200 meters (should be 9000-1000) to name some. You can't expect the Dev's to get it all right but AB is very close 90% of the time in my opinion. That's why we can mod the data base.


yeah but this statement "There are some differences in the two data sets (AB vs SB Pro), and we all know that the US 120mm has been downgraded 10% or so and that some Soviet 125mm are up rated." is inherently false... some soviet rounds are even underperforming in fact in accordance to the odermatt equation

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 11:16:00 AM   
dpabrams

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem



yeah but this statement "There are some differences in the two data sets (AB vs SB Pro), and we all know that the US 120mm has been downgraded 10% or so and that some Soviet 125mm are up rated." is inherently false... some soviet rounds are even underperforming in fact in accordance to the odermatt equation


What do you mean? Many sources show the M289 at 600mm penetration, in game it's 550 a 8.3% down grade and the M829A1 at 700 and 640 in game a 8.57 % downgrade. So yeah it's not exactly 10%. What are the APDamage number you are using in the game for the M829, DM-33, and BM22,26,29,32 and 42?

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 12:48:18 PM   
kevinkins


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Let's remember when we get to PBEM / multiplayer. players will need to agree on the database they are using. Or perhaps the game will only allow the official DB to be used when playing against another human.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 2:16:30 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

What do you mean? Many sources show the M289 at 600mm penetration, in game it's 550 a 8.3% down grade and the M829A1 at 700 and 640 in game a 8.57 % downgrade. So yeah it's not exactly 10%. What are the APDamage number you are using in the game for the M829, DM-33, and BM22,26,29,32 and 42?



quote:

The Soviet standard for calculating the penetration limit of armour piercing projectiles is V80, meaning that the expected consistency of achieving full armour perforation given a certain projectile velocity must be 80%. In formulas, V80 must replace V50 (50% chance of armour perforation). For example, if a certain projectile has to penetrate 500mm of steel, then at least 80% of all projectiles of that type must achieve that standard. Also, the Soviet criteria for a full armour perforation dictates that 80% of projectile mass must be recorded on the other side of the target plate as opposed to U.S Army criteria which only requires that a hole is produced in the armour such that light can be seen from the other side. Overall, Soviet standards were not only stricter, but the steel they used for targets was sometimes of a greater hardness than NATO targets. In reality, the given penetration data may be an underrepresentation of the actual achievable penetration of these shells.


if you wish to compare american and russian data you need to mark down american data by a large margin.... V80 vs V50... 80% of mass vs 3mm hole... high hardness vs medium hardness plate...

Paul Lakowski stated that perforation values for V80 vs V50 alone could already make an 8% difference

similar disparity`s also occured with ww2 ammunition
the comparison between the M62 and the BR-365A can shed some light on the sheer disparity between american and soviet penetration criteria

penetration criteria without adjustment
BR-365A
penetration at 500m vs 30 degree plate: 91mm
M62
penetration at 500m vs 30 degree plate: 93mm

ww2 ballistics and gunnery adjusted penetration
BR-365A
penetration at 500m: 123mm
M62
penetration at 500m: 116mm

the difference is considerable between american and soviet penetration criteria and they cannot be used interchangably without the odermatt equation

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/30/2018 2:51:22 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 2:23:18 PM   
gbem

 

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the DM33 3BM32 and M829 were rated at similar in close range perforation therefore i gave them 560 AP each however the vant had less penetration at range reduced to 35000 apdamagerange value...
correction: fixed the data changing 40000 to 35000 long range penetration is now equivalent to the DM23 with short range penetration being much higher

the 3BM42 "mango" being a segmented penetrator designed to defeat composite armor but perform worse against a solid steel plate i uprated to 580mm as the testing data vs an RHA plate would be biased against it

segmented penetrators like the DM53 M829a3 and the 3BM42 need to be uprated in their displayed penetration value vs composite armor as these tests were conducted against monoblock/monolithic/solid steel plates

i gave the mango similar apdamagerange as the DM33 and reduced M829 apdamagerange to the DM33`s levels as the 3bm-42 was stated to have superior long range performance than the vant (430mm vs 520mm)

here

< Message edited by gbem -- 12/2/2018 2:03:06 AM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 3:26:59 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Let's remember when we get to PBEM / multiplayer. players will need to agree on the database they are using. Or perhaps the game will only allow the official DB to be used when playing against another human.


if they introduce MP they need to fix the 3bm32/42 and DM33 penetrations (m829 outperforms these rounds for some reason)...balance out the silver bullet with the svinets... introduce per tank weakspot values and weakspot armor value... and introduce stuff like a scatter order and a cover SOP

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/30/2018 3:38:48 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 3:45:49 PM   
Werezak

 

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I am 100% certain that yes, people will go through the trouble of modding at least several dozens of vehicles.

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 3:58:52 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

Perhaps in the future there can be one moddable global value. I doubt anyone ever will go through hundreds of vehicles and calculate the 'correct' values for all armor facings.


ive done it for the leo 2a4 and the T-80U... subtract the lower frontal plate then compare the cross sectional area vs any weakspot on the hull and turret... for the leo 2a4 i counted the 400+mm area near the turret ring and for the T-80U i counted the 200+mm cleavage the 200+mm area near the mantlet and the 300+mm turret cheeks... the rest of the area is already resistant to most modern rounds soo i did not include them

this gave me 6% for both the 2a4 and T-80U
and a weakspot value of 400+mm for the 2a4 and 300+mm for the T-80U

granted its a bit of a hassle to perform...

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/30/2018 3:59:36 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 4:04:20 PM   
noooooo

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

quote:

Let's remember when we get to PBEM / multiplayer. players will need to agree on the database they are using. Or perhaps the game will only allow the official DB to be used when playing against another human.


if they introduce MP they need to fix the 3bm32/42 and DM33 penetrations (m829 outperforms these rounds for some reason)...balance out the silver bullet with the svinets... introduce per tank weakspot values and weakspot armor value... and introduce stuff like a scatter order and a cover SOP


I really hope MP is released before spending effort doing all that... Except the cover SOP/scatter order one which I think would be very impactful and useful

< Message edited by noooooo -- 11/30/2018 4:05:34 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 4:05:57 PM   
gbem

 

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quote:

I really hope MP is released before spending effort doing all that... Except the cover SOP/scatter order one

fixing the 3bm32/42 and the DM33 and adding the svinets isnt hard... also helicopter BPs should be movable imo... and the hind should be "fixed wing" XD

< Message edited by gbem -- 11/30/2018 4:13:19 PM >

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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 4:07:53 PM   
Lieste

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Veitikka


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lieste

I seem to recall this was at one point a triangular distribution (from 100% at 85% coverage, to 20% at 0% coverage)

Is this not still the case, or have I miss-remembered?




I don't remember all the discussions and experimentation we had, but currently there's a simple 15% random chance for it.



I think this would be an improvement (it would make a difference between weapons with a 99% penetration potential (15% pen chance) and those with only a 60% penetration potential (7.5% chance).
It doesn't require the additional (impossible) research, or complexity explosion of weakpoint size/'form' for each face of a complex shape, using only the data already present in a consistent, predictable and coherent way.

(in reply to Veitikka)
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RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? - 11/30/2018 4:15:38 PM   
Lieste

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dpabrams

Hard to be objective, we all have bias. We are slaved to what data there is and much of it is grey. The database for AB is really good when I compare to my sources, which are the same sources as everyone else. I have found some data that I corrected based on the weight of other sources. For example, small caliber HEI that had NO AP rating (Marder 20mm), incorrect missile speeds (TOW's AB rated for 178 mps/ actual 320 mps) and the 73mm 2A28 early warhead with a range of 1200 meters (should be 9000-1000) to name some. You can't expect the Dev's to get it all right but AB is very close 90% of the time in my opinion. That's why we can mod the data base.



Be careful with ATGM (Also SAM) speeds. What is important is time to range, not peak velocity.

A 178m/s missile will fly to 200m in 1.1s, vs the .6s of the 'correct' 320m/s... but at 3750m the 320m/s version will arrive 9s sooner than it should, at 12s vs 21s

As these are (predominantly) standoff weapons, fired at long ranges from light vehicles or helicopters, rather than knife fight weapons, the important timing is for the 'far' range, where the magnitude of the error is also going to be larger. (eg. 9s vs 0.5s)

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