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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 4:07:55 AM

rkr1958

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August 1939. Japan (3/3).

Yamamoto, once his army group is established in Southern China, will be given the objective for the capture and transport to factory of the Tin resource point southwest of Kweilin. As operations proceed against the Nationalist Chinese in central and southern China it�s expected that General Umezu and Admiral Yamamoto army groups will merge. As senior, Admiral Yamamoto will be given top command of this merged army group and General Umezu will support him as his deputy commander.

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Ronnie

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 4:34:59 PM

rkr1958

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May 1939. Italy (1/2).

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 4:50:26 PM

rkr1958

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August 1939. Italy (2/2).

Mussolini has pledge Italy's unconditional support to Hitler and Germany. However, for now he's content to sit it out "looking" for any spoils that may happen his way.

However, while sitting it out, Mussolini isn't above a bit of saber rattling. Italy has deployed an entire army on their border with France and one in Libya on their border with Egypt.

The army deployed on the French border is led by General Graziani and is an elite mechanized force composed of HQ-A, mech, mot, mtn and AT div supported by 2 Italian bomber groups and 2 fighter groups.

The Italian army deployed in Libya on the Egyptian border and is composed of HQ-I, 2 inf, AT div.

Also, not to be forgotten is East Africa. Not the local Ethipoian terr unit eyeing Djibouti and the French Somaliland. Is French Somaliland to be the "easy pickens" that Mussolini is after?

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Ronnie

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Post #: 33

RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 5:26:18 PM

rkr1958

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August 1939. CW (1/3).

Great Britain. Plymouth serves as the port of call for Great Britain's Home Fleet. It also serves as the base for the XV Mech and IV Mot corps, who along with Lord Gort and his HQ-I based in Plymouth comprise Britain's 1st BEF Army.

If war should breakout with Germany over Poland, the exact deployment of this 1st BEF Army is intentionally muddled.
(1) Is it to be rushed through the Baltic to directly assist Poland? Though, this seems very risky and unlikely given a fragile and unstable supply line through the Baltic.
(2) Is it to deploy to Denmark if Germany tries to close the Baltic and that avenue of support from the allies to Poland?
(3) Or, is it to deploy to France and start preparing for a repeat of the Great War?
Honestly, none of these options sound appealing to the average solider of the 1st BEF Army.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 34

RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 6:14:03 PM

rkr1958

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August 1939. CW (2/3).

The Med. As important as stopping Germany and supporting Poland, Great Britain is part of a greater empire ... the Commonwealth (CW). And, maintaining the CW is of the same, or even greater importance, as supporting Poland. To do this Great Britain must keep open and protect it's shipping lanes to it's other partner countries in the CW (i.e., Canada, Republic of South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand). A number of those "shipping lanes" pass through the Mediterranean. The First Sea Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill places great importance on securing and protecting key British bases in the Mediterranean to include Gibraltar, Malta, Egypt, Palestine and, of course, the Suez Canal.

Great Britain's Mediterranean fleet is based at Gibraltar, which is currently defended only by regimental (i.e., notional) size units. The plan is to immediately beef up Gibraltar's defense by bring in a territorial corps from Cape Tape, South Africa using the "drafted" Queen Elizabeth and Queen Mary "luxury" liners to transport them.

Malta plays host to Great Britain's submarine fleet and a battleship/heavy cruiser division. Because of Malta's importance in the Central Med it is defended by a Royal Engineering motorized division who are backed by a division of 25 pdr artillery guns.

Egypt is the buffer between a potential enemy in Italy and both the Suez Canal and their Middle Eastern Oil fields. Both of which are vitally critical to the health of Great Britain and the Commonwealth.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 6:33:02 PM

rkr1958

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August 1939. CW (3/3).

East Africa. The port of Aden is the gateway between Great Britain's Mediterranean possessions and their possessions in the Near East (i.e., India, Singapore). Currently housed there is Great Britain's Near East Fleet. Of note, is the absence of aircraft for the two aircraft carriers in that fleet.

India. Because of the difficulty of rooting out any partisan that may take root in Bombay (it takes a major campaign to do so), garrison of Bombay and the Indian factory there is a considered a must. Fortunately for Great Britain there was an Indian MIL available (at setup) for that task. However, plans were in place to transport the 2nd Inf division via SCS (i.e., CA) and deployed in Great Britain to the Arabian Sea and then offload that division into Bombay if that MIL hadn't been available (at setup).

Malaya. Great Britain's Asiatic fleet consisting of a heavy cruiser division is based in the newly naval base at Singapore. Because of the importance of this base and the resources in Malaya, the CW V infantry corps has been based there to provide defense of these resources and Singapore against the threat of anti-government guerrillas.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 7:07:09 PM

rkr1958

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September 1, 1939.

September 1st 1939 is generally marked as the date for the beginning of World War 2. Though, Japan's been at war since September 18, 1931, almost 8-years earlier), when they invaded Manchuria.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 7:12:33 PM

rkr1958

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September 3, 1939.

Though one could argue that the true start date for the Second World War was September 3rd 1939.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 9:33:19 PM

rkr1958

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Sep/Oct 1939. Case White. The Invasion of Poland.

SO39, Axis #1. Surprise Impulse:

German planning and execution was meticulous on the surprise impulse. There were six objectives on this surprise impulse, all of which were achieved at 100%.

1. Ground strike and disrupt the Warsaw stack. For this strike the Luftwaffe assigned a 5 strength Stuka and a 3 factor bomber air flotilla. p0 is a key value in the ground strike estimated effectiveness calculation and is defined as the probability that any given unit is disorganized. For this ground strike against Warsaw in clear terrain, fine weather and during the surprise impulse, p0 = 1 - (0.5^2)*(0.7^2) = 0.8775. This means that for any given unit the chance that this ground strike will disorganize it is 87.75%. Given a p0 = 0.8775 and for the stack of three Polish units in Warsaw, the chance of disorganizing (all) 3 is 67.57%, 2 of 3 is 28.30%, (only) 1 of 3 is 3.95% and (god forbid) 0 of 3 is 0.18%. The execution of the strike was flawless and resulted in all three units being disorganized.

2. Ground strike and disrupt the Lodz stack. The Luftwaffe assigned a 4 factor Stuka and a 3 factor fighter-bomber air flotilla to this mission. The allocated air units gave a p0 = 1 - (0.6^2)*(0.7^2) = 0.8236, or 82.36% chance that a given unit is disorganized. For p0 = 0.8236, the chance that the ground strike disorganized both units was 67.83%, 1 of 2 was 29.06% and none was 3.11%. As in the case of the Warsaw ground strike the execution was flawless and both Polish ground units were disorganized. This and the Warsaw ground strike used all four air missions available to Germany during a land impulse.

3. Capture and open the Polish Corridor between Germany and Prussia, capture Danzig and overrun the Polish fleet based there. This task was given to Germany's 3rd infantry division who had no problem completing it. The overrun of the Polish fleet at Danzig resulted in the scuttling (i.e., destruction) of the CP; however, the Polish destroyer flotilla did manage to escape and make its way to England.

4. Blitz and destroy, or shatter, the Polish Tarmow cavalry corps without losses or disorganization. The Blitz was accomplished by including Germany's XL Mech corps in the attack. The bloodless victory (i.e., destroy/shatter with no losses or disorganization) was accomplished by assigning enough factors to give +19 or higher (on the Blitz table). For this attack the Germans needed at least 28.5 factors, they used 30 which gave them a +20 odds on the Blitz table. This attack was automatic and resulted in the destruction of the Polish cavalry corps.

5. Assault and destroy the Polish Modlin infantry army, without loss or disorganization, and capture Poznan. For this task Germany needed a minimum of +21 on the assault table, which required a minimum of 42 to 44 attack factors, depending on whether or not they cancelled the -1 modifier for attacking a city. This modifier was cancelled by using an HQ-A in the assault which was made by 42 combat factors. This resulted in an automatic, bloodless victory and the capture of Poznan.

6. Blitz and destroy/shatter the Polish Karpaty infantry army, without loss or disorganization. Germany's XLVIII armor corps was used in the attack to make it a blitz. To get the +19 or better (blitz) odds, Germany needed to attack with a minimum of 28.5 factors. They blitzed with 30+ factors and (automatically) destroyed the Polish infantry army.

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Ronnie

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 10:18:52 PM

rkr1958

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Sep/Oct 1939. The Conquest of Poland.

SO39. Axis #3.7. The attack on Lodz. The fine weather across the map continues. The inner pincers of Germany's blitzkrieg attack on Poland converge on the Polish city of Lodz and the two defending infantry armies disorganized there. Germany is able to manage a +20.111 attack on the assault table. These attack odds ensure victory but leaves a 0.9% chance for loss, which in this case would be the 1st engineer division because he's used to "un-half" one of the corps attacking across a river. Also, this 0.9% chance result would result in the disorganization of half of the attackers, which would be sizable (i.e., 7 of the 14 attacking units). However, 3 German HQ units stand ready to reorganize units if that should happen. Germany misses the fractional (only 11.1%) but rolls a 12, resulting in a final attack of 32. Lodz falls without loss or disorganization.

SO39. Axis #5.8. The attack on Warsaw. The fine weather has turned to rain in the arctic and north temperate. The outer pincers of Germany's blitzkrieg meet at Warsaw and prepare for an assault on the three units defending Warsaw. Even with 18 attackers, use of the 1st engineer division to "un-half" one attacker and +2 in HQ support, Germany can only manage to get +17.7 on the assault table. While victory is nearly certain it isn't 100%. There's a 0.3% chance that this assault will fail to take Warsaw. There's a 4.9% chance that German will take a loss, which again would have to be their 1st engineer division. There's even a 1% chance that Germany will lose 2 units. And there's a 7.2% chance that half of the 18 attackers will be disorganized. The assault on Warsaw goes off without a hitch. Germany make their fractional and then rolled a 15, which gave a final assault result of 33. The only impact to Germany was that Rundstedt's HQ-A became disorganized because of the +2 HQ support he provided.

The capture of Warsaw brings Case White and the conquest of Poland to a wildly successful conclusion.

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Ronnie

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 11:00:58 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

Sep/Oct 1939.

SO39. Allied #2.
Honoring their commitment to the defense Poland both Great Britain and France declare war on Germany. Both allied countries take a naval. Not wanting to repeat the slaughter house of the First World War, both countries decide on a five prong approach that they hope will "convince" Germany to stop their invasion of Poland, pull their forces back to Germany and end this second world war before it really has started.

1. RAF long range bombers attack the German fleet based at Kiel. This strike was pushed forward by the First Sea Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill. Being a pro-navy man himself, he wouldn't miss any opportunity to strike at Germany's High Sea's fleet. The strike is a bit disappointing. The Heavy Cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and the Heavy Cruiser Blucher and Pocket Battleship Graf Spee are aborted.

2. Strong RN and French Navy task forces are put into the 3 and 4-boxes of the North Sea. Also put sea under heavy escort is the British 1st BEF Army (Lord Gort HQ-I, mech & mot). This force is ideally suited to deploy to France or intervene in Denmark if the Germans invade and attempt to close the straights between the North and Baltic Seas.

3. A French sub group based in Brest sorties into the Baltic and sinks all 3 German CP's operating there. The importance of from the threat of the British 1st BEF Army to keep access to the Baltic open has become more important.

4. French bombers attack the German oil resource southwest of Hanover and manage to knock it out for 1-turn.

5. RAF bombers ground strike the German 12th army sitting on the Danish border. The bomber used is only a 1-factor bomber, which for this surprise impulse gives a p0 = 1 - .9^2 = 0.18. That is, there's only a 18% that any given unit will be disorganized. The bomber crews are amazing. 2 of 3 (14th SS inf & PzJap I divisions) are disorganized.

Both the British and French leaders are happy with the success of this operation. But their hopes are soon dashed as Hitler doubles down and continues his attack on Poland. It look likes it's going to take the allies a wee bit longer to end this conflict.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/4/2019 11:36:44 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

Sep/Oct 1939.

SO39. Allied #11. The British 1st BEF Army is still at sea loaded on transports. There's a 50% chance that this will be the last impulse of the turn and a 85% chance that this will be the last allied impulse of the turn. Interesting decision concerning the BEF to stay out sea and likely (85%) of having to return to base in Britain or go ahead and disembark into France. Against the advice and wishes of the First Sea Lord of the Admiralty (Winston Churchill), Prime Minister Chamberlain orders Lord Gort and the 1st BEF Army to disembark into France. The British 2nd BEF Army currently being stood up and ready in Nov/Dec 1939, will take on the deterrence roll currently being served by the 1st BEF. And so, the 1st BEF needs to get ashore, establish their bases and begin preparing to counter any move the Germans may be considering into Belgium, or even Holland. The turn does continue.

SO39. Axis #13. With no threat of intervention by the allies in Denmark the sole organized unit of Germany's 15th army, the XXX inf corps, is order to invade Denmark and capture Copenhagen. Germany opens their invasion of Denmark with a port strike on Frederikshavn and the Danish fleet base there (2 CA's & 1 CP). 5 other Danish CP's are safely based at Torshavn in the Faeroes Islands. The port strike carried out by the He 115C nav unit is highly effective. The CA Niels Juel is sunk, CA Peter Skram is damaged and the CP is sunk. Germany's XXX corps has no trouble taking the undefended city of Copenhagen.

Also of note this impulse was a sortie by a German u-boat flotilla out of Kiel and into the Faeroes Gap looking for CW convoys. The flotilla failed to find any convoys but did find the heavy cruiser Newcastle. A battle ensued and both the u-boat flotilla and CA Newcastle were damaged. But, no convoys were sunk.

The turn does end this impulse (70% chance that it would).

SO39. End of Turn. The French sub group operating in the Baltic can only return to base to Frederikshavn, which is still CW controlled, since Copenhagen is German controlled. Also, because all allied transports in the North Sea were returned to base and there are no CP's operating there, the French were unable to reorganize this sub group. The result of this was that during the conquest phase when Denmark fully surrendered and Frederikshavn became German controlled, the French sub group had to face an overrun roll. The sub group wasn't captured but didn't survive the overrun.

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Ronnie

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 12:09:11 AM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War. SO39 Destroyed Units.

Note: The Japanese-Chinese War will be covered later.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 2:15:36 AM

brian brian

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"The strike is a bit disappointing. The Heavy Cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and the Heavy Cruiser Blucher and Pocket Battleship Graf Spee are aborted."

No, no, no. This is not how Winston Churchill operated. Here is how he presented it in Parliament, later in the day.

"Yesterday, upon His Majesty's approval to commence hostilities in support of the noble Poles now being ravaged by the savage German war machine, Royal Air Force bombers launched from their bases overnight and arrived at dawn over the main German naval base at Kiel just as our ambassador delivered our Declaration of War note in Berlin.

Surprise was complete as the land-loving German sailors could barely fire any anti-aircraft weapons and bombs instantly rained down upon the Kriegsmarine in a massive torrent. Subsequent RAF reconnaissance revealed the splendid results. Heavy Cruiser Hipper was ripped open from stem to stern and will not be able to participate in this terrible new war. Her ugly sister the Blucher will be similarly unable to sail for some months to come, and the treacherous Bavarian Corporal will also be unable to lean on the services of his treacherous, treaty busting, so-called "pocket" Battleship the Graf Spee, which even now had been planning to sinisterly menace our peaceful commercial shipping all around the vast Atlantic basin.

The Kriegsmarine has now been so cowed they will be unable to contest our own announcement, starting this day: A complete sea blockade of all of Germany's overseas trade. German merchant ships are being seized even as we speak, in all corners of the Dominions. Should the Kriegsmarine re-develop some bit of moxie to contest this new policy, they are welcome to try their luck upon the North Sea, where so many of their forefathers came to their inglorious ends off the capes of Jutland. The Home Fleet has sailed and is ready, and waiting."

< Message edited by brian brian -- 1/5/2019 2:21:28 AM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 2:18:37 AM

brian brian

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Playing over the table, after delivering that summary of your first impulse activities, you are supposed to belch, take a pull on your cigar, crack a new beer, and calmly hand the dice to the German player and say "your impulse."

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 2:35:59 AM

brian brian

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wrong button double post

< Message edited by brian brian -- 1/5/2019 5:29:01 AM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 7:52:02 AM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

"The strike is a bit disappointing. The Heavy Cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and the Heavy Cruiser Blucher and Pocket Battleship Graf Spee are aborted."

No, no, no. This is not how Winston Churchill operated. Here is how he presented it in Parliament, later in the day.

"Yesterday, upon His Majesty's approval to commence hostilities in support of the noble Poles now being ravaged by the savage German war machine, Royal Air Force bombers launched from their bases overnight and arrived at dawn over the main German naval base at Kiel just as our ambassador delivered our Declaration of War note in Berlin.

Surprise was complete as the land-loving German sailors could barely fire any anti-aircraft weapons and bombs instantly rained down upon the Kriegsmarine in a massive torrent. Subsequent RAF reconnaissance revealed the splendid results. Heavy Cruiser Hipper was ripped open from stem to stern and will not be able to participate in this terrible new war. Her ugly sister the Blucher will be similarly unable to sail for some months to come, and the treacherous Bavarian Corporal will also be unable to lean on the services of his treacherous, treaty busting, so-called "pocket" Battleship the Graf Spee, which even now had been planning to sinisterly menace our peaceful commercial shipping all around the vast Atlantic basin.

The Kriegsmarine has now been so cowed they will be unable to contest our own announcement, starting this day: A complete sea blockade of all of Germany's overseas trade. German merchant ships are being seized even as we speak, in all corners of the Dominions. Should the Kriegsmarine re-develop some bit of moxie to contest this new policy, they are welcome to try their luck upon the North Sea, where so many of their forefathers came to their inglorious ends off the capes of Jutland. The Home Fleet has sailed and is ready, and waiting."

warspite1

How very Churchillian

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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 5:24:43 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Playing over the table, after delivering that summary of your first impulse activities, you are supposed to belch, take a pull on your cigar, crack a new beer, and calmly hand the dice to the German player and say "your impulse."

I'm afraid Warspite beat me to the previous post ... but I'll add for this one ...

Your impulse old chap ...

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/5/2019 5:25:42 PM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 5:30:14 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

"The strike is a bit disappointing. The Heavy Cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and the Heavy Cruiser Blucher and Pocket Battleship Graf Spee are aborted."

No, no, no. This is not how Winston Churchill operated. Here is how he presented it in Parliament, later in the day.

"Yesterday, upon His Majesty's approval to commence hostilities in support of the noble Poles now being ravaged by the savage German war machine, Royal Air Force bombers launched from their bases overnight and arrived at dawn over the main German naval base at Kiel just as our ambassador delivered our Declaration of War note in Berlin.

Surprise was complete as the land-loving German sailors could barely fire any anti-aircraft weapons and bombs instantly rained down upon the Kriegsmarine in a massive torrent. Subsequent RAF reconnaissance revealed the splendid results. Heavy Cruiser Hipper was ripped open from stem to stern and will not be able to participate in this terrible new war. Her ugly sister the Blucher will be similarly unable to sail for some months to come, and the treacherous Bavarian Corporal will also be unable to lean on the services of his treacherous, treaty busting, so-called "pocket" Battleship the Graf Spee, which even now had been planning to sinisterly menace our peaceful commercial shipping all around the vast Atlantic basin.

The Kriegsmarine has now been so cowed they will be unable to contest our own announcement, starting this day: A complete sea blockade of all of Germany's overseas trade. German merchant ships are being seized even as we speak, in all corners of the Dominions. Should the Kriegsmarine re-develop some bit of moxie to contest this new policy, they are welcome to try their luck upon the North Sea, where so many of their forefathers came to their inglorious ends off the capes of Jutland. The Home Fleet has sailed and is ready, and waiting."

warspite1

How very Churchillian

Ironically, before I saw your post I'd picked out the same picture to respond with as you did.

Should I be concerned that I'm starting to think like warspite?

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Post #: 49

RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 6:42:14 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

(02)ND39.

The allies win the initiative and elect to move first for reasons due to the situation of the Nationalist Chinese (to be covered later).

(02)ND39. Allied #1.

With the war looking to be for real but not yet extended into Western Europe, White Hall and the British Admiralty have laid out the following war objectives for Great Britain:
(1) Control of the North Sea and Blockade of the Kreigsmarine (KM) based at Keil,
(2) Protection of Britain's Vital Sea Lanes and Convoys,
(3) Deterrence against German "expansion" into Western Europe,
(4) Non-provocation of the Italians to include operating in the 0, or in non-fine weather, 1 sea-box in sea areas susceptible to an Italian "surprise" attack.

The British who take a naval put the British 2nd BEF army on transports out in the North Sea. The 2nd BEF is made up of the XI Mot, London MIL corps and a 6 pdr AT div. The mission for this army is to serve as a deterrence (objective (3)) to any potential move by the Germans into Holland or Belgium. That is, if the Germans were to invade either of these countries then the 2nd BEF would in the case of an invasion of Holland be immediately deployed (i.e., disembarked) to Rotterdam and in the case of Belgium, to Antwerp. This army if deployed would be commanded by Lord Gort, who currently is in France and in command of the 1st BEF. Lord Gort's HQ-I is in Boulogue and the IV Mot and XV Mech are currently in Calais.

(02)ND39. Axis #4.Germany sends a u-boat flotilla to the North Sea, but the flotilla fails to find any convoys.

(02)ND39. Axis #10.The turn ends at the conclusion of this impulse.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 7:44:19 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

(03)JF40. The axis win the initiative and elect to move second.

(03)JF40. Allied #1.

The British 2nd BEF, which was returned to base (in England) at the conclusion of last turn, is put back to sea on transports in the North Sea.

(03)JF40. Axis #4.

The Luftwaffe (strat) bomb Lyons to no effect.

(03)JF40. Axis #10. Snow in both Arctic and north temperate and rain in the Med.

German u-boat flotillas are sent out to both the Faeroes Gap and Bay of Biscay to sink allied convoys. The u-boats, which remain undetected, fail to find any convoys in either sea area.

OKW has identified the conquest of Holland as their next objective for the Western Front. There's an interesting debate going on between OKW and OKH on the timetable for such an invasion. The German command staffs fully realize that if Rotterdam can't be captured on the surprise impulse then the Brits will deploy strong forces (i.e., 2nd BEF) into Rotterdam and then these forces will be a bear to root out. The only way to capture Rotterdam on the surprise impulse is either through an airborne drop or amphibious invasion. An airborne drop during the surprise impulse will be a sure thing, however, Germany won't have any airborne capability (i.e., II FJR corps) until Mar/Apr 40. So this leaves amphibious invasion which would take a combine and is a risky proposition (50/50 or 60/40 at best) getting through the strong RN and French naval forces patrolling the North Sea.

OKW has, however, pointed out a third option that guarantees Rotterdam which is to invade and conquer Holland on the last impulse of the turn. If this is achieved then all of Holland, including Rotterdam, will surrender to Germans during the conquest phase at the end of the turn. Though still unoccupied if the allies move first next turn, the only means for the English to capture Rotterdam is through amphibious invasion. Since the only amphibious capability the Brits would (currently) have is the 2nd Inf division, any attempt to do so would be suicide since the 2nd division would be heavily outnumber by 4 regiments (i.e., notionals) that Germany would have be able to "move" in during last turn's surrender of Holland.

So, option 3 to take Holland and secure Rotterdam is a "sure thing" except for one major flaw, no matter the impulse if any action other that a pass is taken, there's a chance that the turn will continue. For example, for this current impulse (axis #10), there's "only" a 40% chance that the turn will end. This means that if the Germans were to invade Holland this impulse that there's a 60% chance that the Brits would be able to occupy Rotterdam in force. 60% by any reasonable standard is too high of a risk to invade Holland this impulse.

However, if the axis were to get another impulse this turn, max probability=0.6*0.3=0.18 and min probability=0.6*0.1=0.06, and if only Germany took a non-pass option then there would be a 90% chance that the turn would end on that impulse. So to Thus, there's somewhere between 6 to 18% chance that Germany will get another impulse. And if they do, there's a 90% that they can conquer Holland and secure Rotterdam this impulse.

Whether or not that 90% is acceptable, we'll never know. The turn ended at the conclusion of this impulse. And with the II FRJ corps available to Germany next turn, option 3 for the conquest of Holland is now pretty much mute.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 8:22:51 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

"The strike is a bit disappointing. The Heavy Cruiser Admiral Hipper is damaged and the Heavy Cruiser Blucher and Pocket Battleship Graf Spee are aborted."

No, no, no. This is not how Winston Churchill operated. Here is how he presented it in Parliament, later in the day.

"Yesterday, upon His Majesty's approval to commence hostilities in support of the noble Poles now being ravaged by the savage German war machine, Royal Air Force bombers launched from their bases overnight and arrived at dawn over the main German naval base at Kiel just as our ambassador delivered our Declaration of War note in Berlin.

Surprise was complete as the land-loving German sailors could barely fire any anti-aircraft weapons and bombs instantly rained down upon the Kriegsmarine in a massive torrent. Subsequent RAF reconnaissance revealed the splendid results. Heavy Cruiser Hipper was ripped open from stem to stern and will not be able to participate in this terrible new war. Her ugly sister the Blucher will be similarly unable to sail for some months to come, and the treacherous Bavarian Corporal will also be unable to lean on the services of his treacherous, treaty busting, so-called "pocket" Battleship the Graf Spee, which even now had been planning to sinisterly menace our peaceful commercial shipping all around the vast Atlantic basin.

The Kriegsmarine has now been so cowed they will be unable to contest our own announcement, starting this day: A complete sea blockade of all of Germany's overseas trade. German merchant ships are being seized even as we speak, in all corners of the Dominions. Should the Kriegsmarine re-develop some bit of moxie to contest this new policy, they are welcome to try their luck upon the North Sea, where so many of their forefathers came to their inglorious ends off the capes of Jutland. The Home Fleet has sailed and is ready, and waiting."

warspite1

How very Churchillian

Ironically, before I saw your post I'd picked out the same picture to respond with as you did.

Should I be concerned that I'm starting to think like warspite?

warspite1

Concerned? I'd be suicidal if I thought I was starting to think like that numpty warspite1..... I'm sure there are some pills you can take that will help the condition.

In the meantime, keep buggering on!

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 1/5/2019 8:24:12 PM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 8:24:26 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

(04)MA40 The allies win the initiative and because of the situation of the Nationalist Chinese in China elect to move first. The weather is awful, storms in the arctic and north temperate, rain in the med and fine in the north monsoon. Well, this weather is actually great for the allies on the Western Front and the Japanese in southern China.

The storms in Western Europe prevent any Germany airborne operation, well any air missions that is other than rebase, on the Arctic and Western Fronts.

MA40. Allied #1. Both the CW and French take navals and move strong naval forces out into the North Sea. Also, the British one again put out on transports the British 2nd BEF into the North Sea.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 10:10:22 PM

brian brian

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Now as far as what would Churchill do - if the German had invaded Denmark with minimal forces while Warsaw was still holding out, I think he absolutely would have encouraged action; though he would have only been the First Sea Lord at the time that would only embolden him, within the War Cabinet, to guarantee the ability of the Royal Navy to cover the projection of Royal Army assets into Denmark.

Indeed holding the main peninsula of the country with plentiful airbases for those nifty new RAF fighters the Germans hadn't seen yet, might have tipped the scales against the Luftwaffe, who's deadliness in coastal areas had yet to be proven. At this same time he was busily pushing on subordinates to draw up plans to raid the Baltic with a squadron of WWI R class Battleships, while everyone else in the Royal Navy was trying to talk him out of such rash action, at which they eventually succeeded.

But in World in Flames, the vast bulk of AARs here, when there is no France First, or even a Poland/France 50/50 effort by the Germans, the vast majority of Allied players move some BEF to France on the first turn and chalk that up as an important, successful operation.

(Back to the real war for a second - the British argument for invading Italy, after taking Sicily, asked the Americans - what will our Armies do, after Sicily, but before the spring 44 landings in France? Sit on their bums for 6 whole months?)

And that is what happens in most WiF games when the Germans take Poland first. Sure, they might get lucky on the weather in the late fall of 39 and through the winter and early spring of 40. But most likely, the W. Allied armies will have about zero to do until the historical turn of M/J 40.

Meanwhile, one can say the British have plenty of other things to do - maybe Italy has joined the war. Maybe Gandhi is about to stir up trouble in India. Both possible. But if they don't?

So I am kind of wondering, in this game, why the British would be very successful on their Ground Strikes on the Danish border, and then just meekly deploy to Calais while the Germans invade Denmark with a single unit anyway? A complete waste of a surprise impulse air mission, that could have hit the German navy harder, or made a pinprick on German production (inconsequential, but still more consequential than just flipping 2 German units for the turn.)

But the British need troops - they can't pointlessly waste them in Denmark ? Yes, so they build 3 MIL on each turn in 1939 and now the UK has enough troops, in England, to hold northern Denmark, support the French in a hex or even 2, and supply emergency reinforcements against Italy if needed, and if not, to begin placing insurance garrisons against Gandhi and his friends in other parts of the Asian map. That is what I meant about being "nimble" - the Royal Navy is huge, and their TRS can sometimes do 2 things on one turn, if they use their re-org points wisely.

But then they can't invest in CVs and BBs to win the war in 1942 - but without troops, early on, the British tasks in 1942 and onwards are that much more difficult, if they haven't been busily fighting the Axis at every opportunity, with ground troops, not awesome builds on the production chart.

Playing solitaire, a lot revolves around your willingness to play to the game system, or to play to history. If the Allies don't want to mess around in Denmark or the Baltic, on non-historical concerns, there is also so need for the Germans to invade Denmark in 1939, when US Entry chits can be deadly serious. And the only way to see the advantages of pushing the German's buttons, by resisting them in Denmark and raiding the Baltic, is to pull the trigger and do it.

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Post #: 54

RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 11:04:32 PM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War.

MA40. Axis #3. Storms over Western Europe force a continuation of Germany's Stizkrieg. However, the storms didn't prevent the Germans from trying to carry the war to Great Britain and France on the high seas. A plan is hatched by Grossadmiral Raedar to do so. A plan that he sells to the Fhurer who tactility approves it, taking less than five minutes to consider it. A plan that is flawed and one that will generate more than its fair share of criticism from Admiral Donitz, Commander of Germany's u-boat fleet.

Grossadmiral Raedar's Operation "Tidal Wave", a joint Kriegsmarine and u-boat operation.

Objective: destroy allied convoys, disrupt allied shipping lanes and establish amphibious resources in the North Sea for capture of Rotterdam during the next non-storm/non-blizzard impulse.

If successful this operation would keep in reserve the II FJR para corps and make a "late turn" invasion of Belgium possible.

Operational Orders.

1. Adm Donitz will send u-boat flotillas into the Faeroes Gap and North Sea. He will order his u-boat crews then to initiate search for allied convoys, which once found will be attacked and sunk.

2. The KM based in Keil will establish Task Force A composed of the Pocket Battleships Grap Spee, Deutshland, Heavy Cruiser Blucher, Battleship Schernhost and destroyer groups 1-4 (8 DD's total).

3. The 14th SS infantry division will be loaded aboard selected ships of Task Force A (i.e., CA Deutshland).

4. Task Force A will then proceed to location [******] in the North Sea and wait for the Rotterdam invasion order.

5. Under no circumstances should Task Force A attempt to engage any elements of the RN or French Navies until after the successful amphibious invasion of the 14th SS into Rotterdam.

6. Additional, Task Force A should employ every measure possible to avoid detection by the allies prior to the invasion.

Execution.

German u-boat flotillas in the Faeores Gap and North Atlantic, searching during storms, fail to find any allied convoys.

KM Task Force A attempts to avoid allied detection, but are found during the non-phasing combat phase on search rolls of 2 for the allies and 7 for the KM. This means that a combined 14 allied capital ships are pitted against the 4 KM capital ships of Task Force A. With storms in the North Atlantic, it's a surface action and with the search rolls the combined RN and French naval forces have 6 surprise points. The allies are faced with some interesting choices of how to use those surprise points. Do they use them to increase risk to the KM ships, reduce risk to the allied ships or "save" 4 in order to have 3 to select the pocket battleship Deutshland, which is carrying the 14th SS, for the risk of being sunk. In the end the allies use their 6 SP's to increase risk to the 4 KM capital ships. While the 14th SS div might survive, the CA Deutshland will either be damaged or aborted thus negating any attempted amphibious invasion by the Germans against Rotterdam. Given that the amphibious invasion is now stopped, the overriding consideration for the allies is to inflict as much damage as possible on the KM, ignoring risk to their own ships.

The Second Battle of Jutland.

The combined RN and French navies manage to sink the Pocket Battleship Grap Spee and Heavy Cruiser Blucher. The pocket battleship Deutshland, carrying 14th SS div, and battleship Schernhost are damaged and forced to return to Kiel. Also, all 8 destroyers of DD groups 1-4 are sunk. In return, the allies see the French battleship Dunkerque damaged, RN heavy cruiser Cornwall aborted, 2 French DD's sunk and 2 RN DD's damaged. Winston Churchill is ecstatic, "The Second Battle of Jutland" as he has coined this battle is a roaring allied naval victory.

Admiral Donitz's After Action Report on Grossadmiral Raedar's Operation Tidal Wave.

Executive Summary
1. Operation objectives and the hope of keeping the FJR II corps in reserve for a late turn invasion of Belgium are valid.

2. It was the operation orders for the plan'execution that were extremely FLAWED.

3. The employment of u-boats to search for convoys during storms (or blizzards) significantly minimizes their chance of success. In addition to the +1 search roll modifier for weather, no reduction to the search roll is given due to the presence of CP's. At the time of this operation, and in the case of the Faeroes Gap and the North Atlantic, this would have been -1, which would have provided a 10% boost to detection probability.

4. Under the operational orders of the plan, Task Force A would have had to survive a minimum of two search attempt by the allies. The first during the non-phasing search of the impulse employed and the second during the phasing search of the next (allied) impulse. For every impulse pair the storms continued Task Force A remained at sea, then it would have had to faced another phasing search by the Allies.

5. Alternate operational orders that would have greatly improved the chance of success would have been to use two combine impulses instead of the one naval. The first combined, which would have been during storms, would be used to deploy (but not search) the u-boat flotillas. Then, when the weather allowed for amphibious operations, take another combine to send out KM Task Force A and have the u-boats search for their quarry. These alternate operations orders would have exposed Task Force A to one, and only one, (non-phasing) allied search attempt and allowed the u-boat flotillas to benefit from the -1 search roll modifier.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/5/2019 11:28:19 PM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/5/2019 11:25:13 PM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian
So I am kind of wondering, in this game, why the British would be very successful on their Ground Strikes on the Danish border, and then just meekly deploy to Calais while the Germans invade Denmark with a single unit anyway? A complete waste of a surprise impulse air mission, that could have hit the German navy harder, or made a pinprick on German production (inconsequential, but still more consequential than just flipping 2 German units for the turn.)

It was a spur of the moment, late night decision in hindsight that shouldn't have been made. That's why I blaming the decision on PM Neville Chamberlain. The turn did end on that Germany impulse so with this knowledge it didn't matter whether or not the BEF was still at sea. However, that 20/20 hindsight and not really not relevant.

Germany invaded Denmark on impulse 13 so the chance the turn ended (before I actually rolled for it) was 30%. With that said, as the Germans I would NOT have risked the invasion with a 30% chance that the allies could/would establish themselves in force in Denmark and so close to Germany.

Back to why I did it, or why PM Neville Chamberlain ordered the BEF to disembark to France. I knew that next turn that the Germans were likely to get at least one snow or fine weather impulse, so they were going to be able to take Denmark and lock the British out anyway. More justification, I know, and that's exactly what all this is so far.

The real reason I decided to disembark the BEF and remove that threat to Germany was, I as the CW wanted Germany to invade Denmark. Why, you might ask? Because the CW wanted the minimum of 5 CP's it would get from Denmark. (I deploy the 2 CA's and 1 CP to Denmark which allows me to deploy 5 CP's to Faeroes island.) The CW was struggling with adjusting their convoy routes because of the refusal of the Canadian Merchantmen to sail through the Farores Gap, instead sailing through the Bay of Biscay and messing a lot of things up. I needed/wanted those 5 CP's to help address that and build some reserve against German u-boat attacks.

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/6/2019 12:53:07 AM

brian brian

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Exactly - Chamberlain was still in charge! But more to the point, William Shirer over here completely missed what impulse the Germans did the invasion - that Mr. Hilter is more cunning than it appears, sometimes. Doh! It _was_ late at night here too.

one last tiny point on Denmark - the Railway Movement optional makes covering all landing hexes a little easier for the Germans; a rule I never play with

ahh well, carry on, jolly good show

looking forward to Asia action - I always set up the Japanese Marines in the Tsushima Strait, too, where they are an excellent strategic threat to Russia and they keep that nasty Kim dynasty under control in Korea once they make a no-TRS move into the country

one question there - the historical Japan/USSR pact was signed in March, 1941, once the Japanese finally made their fateful choice to "Go South", rather than north. After Nomohan there was more of a tense, well staffed stand-off in Manchuria - iirc / imo. playing without a Pact would make it a little more historical for the Japanese; with the Pact they know the chance of a USSR DOW far more precisely. the historical Japanese did not have that luxury, and kept strong forces in Manchuria until later in the war, when the pressure by the Americans became too great.

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Post #: 57

RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/6/2019 1:33:29 AM

rkr1958

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The Phoney War (Ends).

(05)MA40. Allied #5. Weather. Storms(arctic), Rain(north temperate), Fine(Med), Fine(north monsoon), Rain, Fine

(05)MA40. Axis #7. With the storms changing into rain, OKW gives the order to commence Case Yellow (the attack on France and the Low Countries) which commences with the invasion / conquest of Holland.

The invasion of Holland starts with a German port strike on the Dutch ships in Rotterdam which sinks a Dutch CP and the CA Sumarta. A second CP, a sub group, the CA De Ruyter and CA Java escape the port strike untouched.

Next the Luftwaffe drop the II FJR into Rotterdam.

A serious, and potentially costly miscalculation is made by OKH staff planners. The OKH mistakenly estimate that the number of infantry regiments (i.e., notinals) left to defend Rotterdam after Amsterdam/The Hague fall to the Germans is "0". This critical mistake early in OKH's planning was potentially catastrophic and was made this way.

The number of regiments defending Rotterdam prior to any attacks was = +1 (basic) + 1 (city) + 1 (adjacent friendly corps) - 1 (surprise impulse) = 3. So, after the capture of Amsterdam the calculation went like this. The number or regiments = +1 (basic) + 1 (city) + 0 (now no adjacent friendly corps) - 1 (surprise impulse) - 1 (unable to trace supply) = 0. The flaw in OKH's second calculation was the "inability" to trace supply. It was mistakenly though that with Amsterdam occupied that Rotterdam would be out of supply. However, OKH staff planners missed the glaring and obvious fact that the allies had both transports and a CP in the North Sea, which would continue to deliver supplies to Rotterdam. Therefore the number of defending regiments would be 1 and not 0!

(1) The attack on Amsterdam was made by von Bock's HQ-I, I, XLIII, X inf corps, the HG armor division and 18/2=9 factors of ground support (halved because of rain). This made the attack automatic (i.e., +22 assault). With the Rotterdam attack mistakenly thought to be automatic not a second through was given to using all available ground support on this land combat. Originally, the 150 mm artillery division was included in this attack but at the last moment OKH decided to allocat it to the "automatic" Rotterdam attack in order to have it advance into that hex and be in a better position for an invasion of Belgium next turn if this turn should end before the Germans got another impulse. While OKH staff planners didn't know it, this was a blindly fortunate change. So, not surprisingly, the automatic attack on Amsterdam was a victory with no losses and no disorganizations.

(2) Now image OKH's surprise when the odds were not automatic but showed up as +15 on the assault table. A quick review of their planning notes uncovered the mistake. Obviously Rotterdam was being supplied by the Brits through the North Sea and that meant not 0 but 1 regiment defending Rotterdam. With only 2 attacking units (II Para & 150 mm) a +15 on the assault table is NOT a sure thing. There's a 3% chance that both attacking units will be lost and Rotterdam hold. Furthermore there was a 6% chance that Germany would have to lose 1 of the two valuable attackers, which would have been the 150 mm arty division.

The only mitigating factor was that the attack was originally to be made by the lone II para corps. If that had been the case then the odds would have been +7 on the assault table with only 1 attacker. The odds for victory would have gone from 97% (i.e., don't lose both attackers) to 86% (i.e., don't lose the II para). Still, this mitigating factor didn't alleviate the 3%/6% risk of combat that was to follow at +15 on the assault table.

The Resolution of land combat 2. No fractional ... and the roll = 11! PHEW!!!! This gave a final result of 15 + 11 = 26! While careers will be lost and folks reassigned to dead end jobs at OKH ... no one will be shot for this mistake covered up by a good land combat roll.

The turn continues.

(05)MA40. Allied #9. The weather turns foul. Blizzard(arctic), Blizzard(north temperate), Snow(Med), Rain(north monsoon). The turn continues.

(05)MA40. Axis #12. Germany uses this turn to better position their troops on the Western Front. The turn ends and so does the Phoney War.

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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/6/2019 2:12:53 AM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/6/2019 1:40:13 AM

rkr1958

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quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Exactly - Chamberlain was still in charge! But more to the point, William Shirer over here completely missed what impulse the Germans did the invasion - that Mr. Hilter is more cunning than it appears, sometimes. Doh! It _was_ late at night here too.

one last tiny point on Denmark - the Railway Movement optional makes covering all landing hexes a little easier for the Germans; a rule I never play with

ahh well, carry on, jolly good show

looking forward to Asia action - I always set up the Japanese Marines in the Tsushima Strait, too, where they are an excellent strategic threat to Russia and they keep that nasty Kim dynasty under control in Korea once they make a no-TRS move into the country

one question there - the historical Japan/USSR pact was signed in March, 1941, once the Japanese finally made their fateful choice to "Go South", rather than north. After Nomohan there was more of a tense, well staffed stand-off in Manchuria - iirc / imo. playing without a Pact would make it a little more historical for the Japanese; with the Pact they know the chance of a USSR DOW far more precisely. the historical Japanese did not have that luxury, and kept strong forces in Manchuria until later in the war, when the pressure by the Americans became too great.

It's actually Stalin fresh off Zhukov's victory at Nomahan that pushed for the pact, one that the Japanese were glad to enter into in order to have more troops for China. Stalin sees a valuable prize in Persia and wanted Zhukov and his Asia front available to seize it. As the situation evolves, and I'll provide all these numbers when I get to the Asia Fronts, it may be Japan that breaks the garrison ratio and pact. Possibly coordinated with Germany breaking the Nazi-Soviet pact. But all that's well over a year from now in game time.

My "historical" precedent for the Soviets taking Persia is that in my experience Persia is more valuable than the Finnish Borderlands. And historically, if Stalin had no qualms launching the Winter War to take the Borderlands, why in this reality would he have any qualms with sending Zhukov in to take Persia. Especially if he'd just secured his Asia borders with Japan through a neutrality pact. I'm sure the world was stunned when the Nazi-Soviet pact was announced in August of 1939. In this reality I thought I'd stun it a bit more by also announcing the Soviet-Japanese non-aggression pact in September 1939.

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/6/2019 1:46:01 AM >

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RE: Witness to World War 2. - 1/6/2019 2:01:59 AM

brian brian

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Rotterdam was not being supplied by the British via the North Sea. The North Sea could have been securely held by nothing but Axis naval/air forces and Rotterdam would have still been in supply.

The notional unit holding Rotterdam would be a Dutch unit - absent any other Allied country's unit being present. Rotterdam is a city in the Netherlands and thus a notional unit in a city hex in a still unconquered Netherlands would never be out of supply.

< Message edited by brian brian -- 1/6/2019 2:17:09 AM >

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Post #: 60