RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A)

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/2/2019 2:58:05 PM

Bif1961

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From: Phenix City, Alabama
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It looks like he is about to feel the sting of the Japanese carrier arm followed by the Yamato's TF. It is always a good lesson to teach to an Allied player who gets a little adventerous with his unsupported surface TFs.

(in reply to Mike Solli)

Post #: 4411

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/2/2019 3:32:06 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

It looks like he is about to feel the sting of the Japanese carrier arm followed by the Yamato's TF. It is always a good lesson to teach to an Allied player who gets a little adventerous with his unsupported surface TFs.

It is almost 1944, and this is a period of a bad match versus Allied CV should it occur. If you can get the Sam early enough in 1944, then the scale tilts to Japan's favor...but I have never seen an AAR where Japan managed to do that short of mod bringing the Sam in early.

If I were the Allies, I would be looking for a CV clash, and willing to trade some surface ships as bait to get it.

Still, Mike knows his the enemy and perhaps the Allies are over confident thinking Japan's CV might isn't as strong as it is.

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Post #: 4412

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/2/2019 4:08:47 PM

Mike Solli

Posts: 15792
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

It looks like he is about to feel the sting of the Japanese carrier arm followed by the Yamato's TF. It is always a good lesson to teach to an Allied player who gets a little adventerous with his unsupported surface TFs.

Yeah, my opponent tends to react in one of 2 ways when I surprise him. Either he flees or sends everything in the area in. I think he'll flee in the Aleutians.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/2/2019 4:21:30 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

It looks like he is about to feel the sting of the Japanese carrier arm followed by the Yamato's TF. It is always a good lesson to teach to an Allied player who gets a little adventerous with his unsupported surface TFs.

It is almost 1944, and this is a period of a bad match versus Allied CV should it occur. If you can get the Sam early enough in 1944, then the scale tilts to Japan's favor...but I have never seen an AAR where Japan managed to do that short of mod bringing the Sam in early.

If I were the Allies, I would be looking for a CV clash, and willing to trade some surface ships as bait to get it.

Still, Mike knows his the enemy and perhaps the Allies are over confident thinking Japan's CV might isn't as strong as it is.

Lowpe, ganging up on his carriers is my primary goal right now. I do want to let him know that he can't just cruise all over the place without repercussions though, hence my reaction everywhere. In most places (hopefully all

), I have little fear of a meaningful retaliation from him. I got lucky right now. I have forces that are in a position to do something meaningful against him that I don't think he knew about. My goal in this particular situation is to slow him down. Killing ships is nice, but there are definitely more coming to replace them. The extra VPs are nice though.

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Post #: 4414

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/2/2019 5:28:55 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
If you can get the Sam early enough in 1944, then the scale tilts to Japan's favor...but I have never seen an AAR where Japan managed to do that short of mod bringing the Sam in early.

The Sam ain't coming early. I screwed up the R&D.

The R&D factories are only repaired to 10, 9, 8, 8, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 1.

No clue when they're coming but I wouldn't look for them for a year.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/3/2019 12:04:17 PM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
If you can get the Sam early enough in 1944, then the scale tilts to Japan's favor...but I have never seen an AAR where Japan managed to do that short of mod bringing the Sam in early.

The Sam ain't coming early. I screwed up the R&D. The R&D factories are only repaired to 10, 9, 8, 8, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 1.

No clue when they're coming but I wouldn't look for them for a year.

Let's see, you are Dec 43, A7M is 9/45 � what is your Ha-43 pool? I would ramp that up as much as you can, total will depend upon what other airframes you intend to build.
� J7W, N1K5, Ki-83 are the primary users besides A7M � you may get lucky with one of those factories repairing by 10/44 � the engine bonus will then come in handy to pull those other factories along �

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Pax

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Post #: 4416

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/3/2019 1:26:47 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Let's see, you are Dec 43, A7M is 9/45 � what is your Ha-43 pool? I would ramp that up as much as you can, total will depend upon what other airframes you intend to build.
� J7W, N1K5, Ki-83 are the primary users besides A7M � you may get lucky with one of those factories repairing by 10/44 � the engine bonus will then come in handy to pull those other factories along �

Hi Tony. Right now, my 4 remaining R&D engine factories are all on the Ha-43. It will become operational 5/44. The size 60 factory will become operational and the other 3x30 will convert to the NE Turbojet.

I'll convert probably 3 other factories to the Ha-43 giving me 4 total and expand them all. By the end of 5/44, I'll be up to 180, June 300, July 420, August 540. The rub is that the N1k5 becomes operational 5/44 as well and will suck engines as fast as I produce them. Right now, I'll produce 180 Georges, so I won't turn a surplus of engines until 6/44. I estimate the surplus will be 60 by the end of June, 240 in July, and break 500 in August.

I plan on producing all of those you mentioned except the Ki-83 for late war.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/3/2019 2:36:53 PM

Lowpe

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Glad to see you are thinking about the end war fighters, you never know where you will be and it would be a total shame to play the game for so long, get into 1945 and not have at least one model.

(in reply to Mike Solli)

Post #: 4418

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/3/2019 5:38:15 PM

Mike Solli

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The fourth end war fighter is the Frank r, which I get in Feb 44.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/3/2019 7:42:11 PM

rustysi

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End of war fighters. Frank b, six R&D from day one, will be ten once 'a' is in service. Randy night fighter, five R&D from day one. A7M, only two R&D, April '43. Will have eight by June/July. George, six R&D from day one. Currently in production. J7W, five R&D form day one. Ki-83, five R&D from day one. Frank a, three R&D form day one, now six. Will come into service NLT Sep '43. Possibly sooner if that off R&D (55, now 44/11) site will finish repair soon enough. Aug '43 possible, a little late, but not too bad. Ha-43 will be operational 2/44 at 180 per month. Will ramp that up quickly. Last is the KI-94, one R&D at start. Now three. Will increase to ~ten as I go.

Didn't bother with the NE Turbojet. With SR=4 didn't think I could keep the planes in service.

Will also have the Jack pretty soon, but no plans for large production. May not produce until second model comes into play as its SR=2. Depends on what's going on as its production will come at the expense of the Judy recon model, which will then cease production.

As to the Frank, I'm beginning to think I should have left the 'a' at three R&D as the three I added appear to have been too late to be effective. Maybe next run I'll just add them to the 'b'.

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Post #: 4420

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 8:20:59 PM

Mike Solli

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Today did not go as expected for either of us. That�s war!

19 Dec 43

Sub War

Finally, my ASW forces connected with Muskellunge just south of Kobe. The Ch-52 hit her twice heavily damaging her. I don�t see her any more so she�s either on her way home or sank.

5 Fleet

Interesting day up here today. The DD off Etorofu went west toward home and I lost sight of her.

I had MKB up here hoping to hit the Allied bombardment force, but they sprinted to the east. Hopefully, one of my subs out there can connect with them later.

What I didn�t see was a US CV TF that came into the area. We ended up 9 hexes apart. He never launched on me but I launched most of my TBs on him:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Umnak Island at 172,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 111 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 46
B6N2 Jill x 36

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 119

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 19 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 6 destroyed, 8 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Essex
BB Indiana, Torpedo hits 1
CV Yorktown
CV Lexington

Note all the Allied fighters present. There is a curious aircraft load out, about 200 fighters and 100 bombers. Ted later told me he was hunting for my bombardment TF. So, we were both hunting each other�s BBs and neither of us knew the other had carriers in the area.

I am fleeing west with MKB tomorrow. (There is no way they can stand up to 3-4 US fleet carriers.) My BBs were never spotted and will bombard Umnak tomorrow then head toward Nome, which I control. That will get them out of range of the US carriers (hopefully).

I doubt 1 torpedo did much to Indiana�s tough hide.

I�m assaulting Umnak tomorrow, but with only 2/3 of the 19 Division and the tank regiment. One third of the division got smacked around by the Allied BBs and has very high disruption. I�m curious to see how the US 201 Sep Infantry Regiment is looking after being pummeled for so long. The fort level could make or break things here.

I�m also curious to see what the US carriers do tomorrow.

4 Fleet

Not much happened here today. The US DD that was near Saipan is heading west. I can still see her but nothing intercepted her.

Saipan reached fort 8.

SE Fleet

KB did nothing here today, but is still unseen by the enemy.

First thing today, I heard sinking sounds. CA Vincennes after getting pummeled by CD guns at Truk and a 500kg bomb from KB yesterday? That�s just a guess.

The damaged ship(s) from yesterday�s bombardment vanished to the south. That tells me Vincennes really sank and the Portland (less damaged) was able to make good speed to escape.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

A Frank sentai shot down 5 of 8 fighters for no loss over Kalemyo.

A Tojo sentai shot down 5 of 11 Hurricanes for the loss of 2 over Akyab.

China

My bombers destroyed 14 squads (5 infantry) and disabled another 130. Artillery destroyed 17 (16 infantry) and disabled 19 more.

Another deliberate assault tomorrow.

Other Stuff

Nothing exciting.

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Post #: 4421

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 9:10:22 PM

Mike Solli

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20 Dec 43

Sub War

One sided today�

The I-23 was hunting for the damaged US CA(s) south of Truk and ran into an ASW TF. She took 2 DCs and is moderately damaged: 26-40(23)-12(10)-0. She�s headed to Saipan for repairs.

An xAP was headed to Saipan after dropping off troops and took a torpedo from Grayling just off Saipan. She�s moderately damaged but made Saipan for repairs.

5 Fleet

MKB got out of the area while the US carriers continued to cruise west. Where are they going and what is their mission? They have a lot of fighters but not many bombers. A mobile CAP trap? That seems rather dangerous to me. I have a bunch of subs that are chasing after it (they are to the east of the carriers). Eventually, the US carriers will have to head east to replenish/refuel. They are going to find Japanese subs.

My BBs bombarded Umnak prior to the deliberate assault going in:

Ground combat at Umnak Island (169,51)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7490 troops, 113 guns, 170 vehicles, Assault Value = 308

Defending force 8508 troops, 43 guns, 165 vehicles, Assault Value = 98

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 166

Allied adjusted defense: 85

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
119 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
242 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 13 (2 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Assaulting units:
23rd Tank Regiment
19th/B Division
19th/A Division
19th/C Division � did not attack
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment
North Pacific
Eleventh USAAF
106th USN Base Force
802nd Engineer Aviation Battalion

I missed 2:1 odds by 4AV! It turns out my forces gained little fatigue and disruption. I�m attacking again tomorrow with everyone. Maybe I can kill them off. We�ll see�

4 Fleet

A US bombardment fleet of 2 BB, 2 CA and 3 CL bombarded Tabiteuea overnight and there was an invasion later in the day. I have only an AS unit there with a company of infantry, so the base is doomed, but at this point, that base is pretty useless to both of us. He can have it. There are level 3 forts but I suspect the base will fall tomorrow.

SE Fleet

I pulled KB north into the vast Pacific north of Truk and east of Saipan. They�ll sit there for a while in case an opportunity arrises.

SRA

Nothing to report.

Burma

Two enemy fighters were shot down for no loss.

China

My bombers didn�t fly.

Here was the assault:

Ground combat at Chungking (76,45)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 270115 troops, 2877 guns, 1766 vehicles, Assault Value = 9412

Defending force 277187 troops, 454 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 5055

Japanese adjusted assault: 6368

Allied adjusted defense: 3561

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
21572 casualties reported
Squads: 41 destroyed, 2451 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 88 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 193 disabled
Guns lost 124 (12 destroyed, 112 disabled)
Vehicles lost 29 (1 destroyed, 28 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
11639 casualties reported
Squads: 1060 destroyed, 1264 disabled
Non Combat: 765 destroyed, 719 disabled
Engineers: 17 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 65 (39 destroyed, 26 disabled)
Units destroyed 16

There are 107 Chinese units remaining. Eight of the destroyed units were HQs. I�ll get a complete breakdown next turn.

I�m up to 10 divisions with 100+ infantry squads disabled.

Current army status:

Fatigue: 80.5 + 16.7
Disruption: 39.9 + 18.8
Disabled: 16.9 + 7.8

I�m going to give the army 2 days to recover then probably attack again. The Chinese Army is close to capitulation and I don�t want to give it too much time to recover. I plan on attacking with everyone. Hopefully, it�s enough to get 2:1 odds and end this thing.

Other Stuff

The N1K5-J R&D advanced to 12/44 (will become operational 5/44).

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Post #: 4422

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 10:25:28 PM

rustysi

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quote:

I missed 2:1 odds by 4AV!

quote:

Squads: 1060 destroyed, 1264 disabled

Nice numbers.

quote:

10 divisions with 100+ infantry squads disabled.

That's pretty high, but what can you do?

Edit: Hey, I know buy them out.

< Message edited by rustysi -- 2/6/2019 10:26:44 PM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 10:30:31 PM

Lowpe

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You got lucky there with the CV clash! Good job.

Tabiteuea falling to the Allies, pretty much means the Marshall Islands become untenable. Those darn 4Es flying against islands is very tough to defend against.

But it is dec of 43, and to have held it this long is an accomplishment. Start taking a look at the map, because the game becomes a staged retreat at some point, and you want to pick you points of battle carefully. Normally that doesn't do too much good because the Allies have such great intel that they generally pick your weak links and exploit them.

Still, there are bases that must be held. A general rule of thumb is if you can keep stockpiling fuel and oil from the SRA thru June of 44, then you are doing great and anything after that is gravy. Supplies are the concern, and well VP.

Some things to think on in a stock game...the Frank R is great, along with George and then Sam should make up the bulk of your fighters. The others have roles to play, but you really need those big 3. The Randy Fighter has a shockingly high altitude and is quite useful. Fighter Bombers and Float Fighters are both important additions to your air defenses. If you make 45 you definitely need an end war fighter and you picked Shinden I believe.

Think about how you want to use the KB. Lots of options here, in general never ever leave your own land based search arcs and even then be very careful where the deathstar can sprint in on a previously detected KB from un-searched seas.

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Post #: 4424

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 11:29:07 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

quote:

I missed 2:1 odds by 4AV!

quote:

Squads: 1060 destroyed, 1264 disabled

Nice numbers.

quote:

10 divisions with 100+ infantry squads disabled.

That's pretty high, but what can you do?

Edit: Hey, I know buy them out.

I have enough PPs to buy another division out right now. Next turn I'm bombarding, as I always do now, so I'll get a good idea of how much the raw Chinese AV has decreased. I'm hoping some 12-1300 points at least. That's how many infantry squads were disabled. If it appears that I can get the magic 2:1, I'll throw in all the divisions to maximize my AV. I'll be able to run some numbers after I get the turn back. It would be nice to end the Chinese campaign and then start moving those bought out, high experience divisions to some islands.

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Post #: 4425

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/6/2019 11:48:37 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You got lucky there with the CV clash! Good job.

Tabiteuea falling to the Allies, pretty much means the Marshall Islands become untenable. Those darn 4Es flying against islands is very tough to defend against.

But it is dec of 43, and to have held it this long is an accomplishment. Start taking a look at the map, because the game becomes a staged retreat at some point, and you want to pick you points of battle carefully. Normally that doesn't do too much good because the Allies have such great intel that they generally pick your weak links and exploit them.

Still, there are bases that must be held. A general rule of thumb is if you can keep stockpiling fuel and oil from the SRA thru June of 44, then you are doing great and anything after that is gravy. Supplies are the concern, and well VP.

Some things to think on in a stock game...the Frank R is great, along with George and then Sam should make up the bulk of your fighters. The others have roles to play, but you really need those big 3. The Randy Fighter has a shockingly high altitude and is quite useful. Fighter Bombers and Float Fighters are both important additions to your air defenses. If you make 45 you definitely need an end war fighter and you picked Shinden I believe.

Think about how you want to use the KB. Lots of options here, in general never ever leave your own land based search arcs and even then be very careful where the deathstar can sprint in on a previously detected KB from un-searched seas.

Hey Lowpe, that's all really good info, especially for someone who's never gotten this far in the game before.

The Marshalls are pretty much written off now that Truk has been neutralized. Tabiteuea will be another airbase for the Allies to use, but in the long run, I don't think it will matter much.

My SLOC from Singapore to the Home Islands is still secure. The occasional enemy sub can be avoided. Yeah, it'll get worse, but all the oil/fuel producing bases are being kept drained. Only Singapore has stuff sitting there, and I drain it as soon as I can into waiting TKs and xAKs to ship. Just today I sent a shipment with 136k fuel, 30k oil and 60k resources. I'm currently loading the 5 Tonan Whalers and a bunch the 15 kt xAKs with oil and resources. They'll ship out in a few days. I don't usually mention the convoys.

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.

I think I'm doing ok with the fighters you mentioned. I get the Frank r in 2/44 and the George 5 in 5/44. It would be really nice to get the Sam by the end of 44, but I doubt it, to be honest. The Shinden is coming along nicely, with the 6 factories repaired at 20, 15, 15, 11, 9 and 3.

I'm working on various other planes. I'll list them later.

Yeah, KB. I'm becoming very cautious with it, but like to surprise Ted and sink stuff here and there, just to slow him down and sink critical things when I can. KB is now a one shot weapon. It hits and then runs.

< Message edited by Mike Solli -- 2/6/2019 11:50:14 PM >

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/7/2019 12:02:18 AM

PaxMondo

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Looking good!

I agree with all of Lowpe's comments.

I think you are in pretty good shape for end of 43.

I don't think it is possible to over emphasize the importance now of shrinking your defensive lines. Bypassed units are the Achilles heel for IJ.

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Post #: 4427

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/7/2019 9:19:56 AM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
I don't think it is possible to over emphasize the importance now of shrinking your defensive lines. Bypassed units are the Achilles heel for IJ.

That is a tough thing. I hate leaving good units to die on the vine. I made a big mistake at Truk by not pulling out that I sucked out of the south when it was relatively safe. Now I'm trying to pull stuff out by air, the occasional xAP and fast transport. (Those Ansyu PBs are amazing little ships!)

I have the 1 Gds Division at Truk and have been successful in pulling out a few shiploads so far. What I get out will help form part of the garrison of one of the Marianas Islands. I did learn that I can pull out the 8cm CD guns by air. Pretty cool!

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/7/2019 10:43:58 AM

GetAssista

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
China

My bombers didn�t fly. Here was the assault:

If they did fly you'd be there already I think. Disruption plays a huge part in land combat (I think it's close to straight proportional multiplier, might test it someday), and same-turn disruption is valuable because it falls off so fast from higher values.
And you attackers got it easy anyway judging by their post assault disruption.

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Post #: 4429

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/7/2019 1:15:47 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

I made a big mistake at Truk by not pulling out that I sucked out of the south when it was relatively safe.

Not really, it caused the Allies time and some material. If you maintained a 1-1 or better VP ratio in the eventual trade, then you extended the war. Japanese troops are meant to fight and die for the Empire, buying time. VP wise, Japanese troops are cheap compared to Allied (except for Chinese).

If you flew out pieces that will rebuild later, then well and good and no PP wastage. Yeah, you might have lost some experienced troops, but I generally feel experienced large units are generally a mistake on islands. Look at the TOE of your divisions and use air mobile units instead with support from eng/art/eng (and armored cars or tanks on autoshock islands).

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 2/7/2019 1:16:13 PM >

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Post #: 4430

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/8/2019 6:50:39 PM

rustysi

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quote:

3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k)

About 8 months behind in my AI game and my fuel is much higher (4.8M), but I guess its easier to conserve in an AI game. Although I intentionally expended a lot taking Midway. My resource levels are however horrendous. Only 7.7M in Apr'43. Had horrible luck in that nearly all resource centers had relatively high damage rates when captured, many were at zero. No I don't shock attack or naval bombard as these may damage these sites. Heck I even took that base SE of Changsha (unoccupied) with a single infantry regiment and it ended up with 25% damage.

Ran a deficit for a long time. Even lowered my supply numbers as I had no choice but to repair said centers. Current supply 3.6M, but rising nicely... Now.

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Post #: 4431

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/9/2019 1:42:26 AM

jdsrae

Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

Right now I have 4.3 million supply (up 100k from the beginning of the month), 3.2 million fuel (up about 25k), 22.5 million resources (up 600k) and 2.1 million oil (up 75k). That does not include convoys.

A lot can happen in 6 months, but I'm hoping to keep the SLOC open that long. My goal of stuff in the Home Islands is for June 1944. Edit: I'll discuss this soon.

Made me think of a question, so what size stockpile of Resources and Fuel is enough to stop convoy imports? The answer is probably never, just keep hauling until the allies start to interfere.
Assuming 30 day months to simplify the maths. Table below shows my working:

Japan (economic region) has a deficit of 79100 resources/day or 2.373M / month. Your resources stockpile is about 12 months ahead of where I'd thought it possible, but then I remembered you've taken all of China with +15370 resources/day. My calcs here are for historically captured areas only.
Fuel deficit just for industry (more required for fleet ops) is 4085 in deficit/day, or 122550/month. Looks like you've used 5M of fuel on fleet ops to have a 3.2M stockpile.
Oil deficit is 7840/day due to the 895 refineries. So how is your oil stockpile still increasing even with the +300/day from greater China? I didn't think there was enough oil on the map to keep them running at full capacity, so have you switched off some refineries in Japan?
Supply produced is 19951/day or about 600k/month. That means you've used about 13.5M supply so far.

Looks like you're doing about as well as is possible bringing things home for now. Due to the massive demand for resources your fuel stockpile is probably in better shape than your resources one.
The extra resources from China will be hard for the allies to stop so that will be of huge strategic benefit to your industry and supply situation.

Chart update with some more realistic estimates for when the convoy routes will close.
Ignore the resources line of this for now as it will take me a while to put the resource convoy routes into a table (I have 34 routes), but the oil/fuel estimate is done. Now I understand why you want to get to at least mid-1944 until the oil/fuel convoys stop. Ideally you'll get some fuel/oil coming in until late 1944 as the IJN could do with some during the Downfall.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 2/9/2019 5:18:10 AM >

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AAR link (no SolInvictus): https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4684655

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Post #: 4432

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/9/2019 11:01:41 AM

jdsrae

Posts: 2716
Joined: 3/1/2010
From: Gandangara Country
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Here's a table showing possible resource convoy closure dates and the impact on the resources stockpile.
Also corrected the resource start stockpile. This suggests resources won't drop under 10M stockpile, but with >2M in resources used each month the resource stockpile will plummet once convoys stop importing them.

Without China the resources would start dropping through 1945, but with China and the extra stockpile you've built up you should be good for resources.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by jdsrae -- 2/9/2019 11:00:06 PM >

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Post #: 4433

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/9/2019 6:11:30 PM

rustysi

Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
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quote:

The answer is probably never

That's correct.

quote:

Oil deficit is 7840/day due to the 895 refineries. So how is your oil stockpile still increasing

Eventually you'll have a small surplus of oil if you don't repair captured damaged refineries. Most experienced players don't repair damaged refineries for that reason. Just bring the excess oil back to Japan where there's a shortage.

quote:

Supply produced is 19951/day

That number is far below what Japan is capably of producing. In my current AI game I produce just over 30k/day. Keep in mind that in a stock scenario 1 game as Mike is playing refineries produce 1 supply and 9 fuel/day from their inputs.

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Post #: 4434

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/9/2019 6:12:56 PM

rustysi

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quote:

Without China the resources start running low by 1946, but with it and the extra stockpile you've built up you should be good for resources.

Resources are not normally a problem for Japan.

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RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/9/2019 8:01:17 PM

jdsrae

Posts: 2716
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From: Gandangara Country
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quote:

Eventually you'll have a small surplus of oil if you don't repair captured damaged refineries. Most experienced players don't repair damaged refineries for that reason. Just bring the excess oil back to Japan where there's a shortage.

That's it. There are 2390 operating allied Oil Refineries in China, Burma and SRA at the start. It only needs 784 of them to be damaged for oil to be available to balance the refinery demand in Japan. Any more than 784 damaged and Japan's oil stockpile will grow, until convoys are interrupted that is.
I had figured out not to repair the Oil Refineries at Miri but hadn't factored in damage on capture. I agree not to repair Refineries, but the downside is the reduction in the amount of fuel produced "locally" for Area Fleet and convoy ops. I'll estimate the demands of the Area Fleets and convoys at some point, but the main thing is to leave some fuel available for local ops so damaged refineries should also cause a reduced rate of Fuel moving to Japan.

Mike's oil stockpile is about 700k better than what I think is "par" but his fuel looks 4.4M worse. Once that oil is refined into 7M fuel though, I think he's ahead by about 2.6M fuel (about 7 months worth) and about 7M ahead on resources (about 3 months worth).

quote:

quote:

Supply produced is 19951/day

That number is far below what Japan is capably of producing. In my current AI game I produce just over 30k/day. Keep in mind that in a stock scenario 1 game as Mike is playing refineries produce 1 supply and 9 fuel/day from their inputs.

The 19951/day is just the "Japan economic region" supply excess. While excess supply is produced in nearly every region I don't factor it in as it is relatively low numbers and I assume it as needed for local ops.
Next on my list is to model how best to use the starting supply stockpile plus about 20k supply/day, as Japan needs to ration using it between supporting operations in the Home Islands, exporting some supply to the forward theatres, industry expansion/repair, base expansion and building a reserve for repair once the B-29s start.
I've bumbled my way through it a few times before in AI games but want a detailed plan next time to see if I can improve efficiencies. I'm enjoying trying to plan industry inputs then manufacturing, haven't run a game turn in months!

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Post #: 4436

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/10/2019 6:04:21 PM

Mike Solli

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Hi guys. Sorry for being MIA lately but I'm recovering from the virus from hell. Between Thursday afternoon and Friday night, the fever took held and wasn't really coherent until Saturday morning. I got a turn from Ted on 8 Feb and will run it in a minute. First a few comments...

My thought was to not rebuild refineries with one exception. I increased refineries to equal the oil on Java. I then had all the little resource producing bases in the area ship to Java. I also increased HI on Java to make everything work out so there was surplus fuel but no surplus oil. That works nicely. There is excess supply to ship out and excess fuel is used for missions in the AO or to ship to Singapore to go to Japan.

I've lost very little oil so far. I rebuilt all the oil facilities at Miri and Brunei (but not the refineries). That gets shipped to Singapore with some fuel to Hong Kong as needed for China.

I've lost Boela and Babo's oil centers and about half of Magwe's. Magwe has lasted much longer than I figured it ever would. I usually keep the refinery at Rangoon off because oil flows without spoilage while fuel incurs spoilage. I keep some on hand at Rangoon to refuel supply convoys there.

Finally, to answer your question - I'll keep shipping everything I can to Japan as long as I can. When I haul ground units out there, I usually fill them up with whatever I can (supply if possible) to bring back to Japan. Nothing goes back to Japan empty if they can haul something.

Now on to the turn...

Frankly, I'm surprised at the amount of oil that I still have. That stumps me.

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Post #: 4437

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/10/2019 6:08:43 PM

Mike Solli

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One last thing. Here's what I did for that 20k supply per day at the beginning of the war. There is a lot of stuff that needs to be increased. I made sure that I never spent more than 10k a day on the infrastructure. That's 10 things increasing at any one time. If you try to do everything at once, you'll bankrupt yourself. I never had an issue doing that. I would recalculate every time I had a new conquest. Half of that conquest was available for infrastructure increases. That took bookkeeping, but it works. The only supply I ship out of Japan is ~150k for Miri. I want that oil building as soon as possible. It'll take 5 months to repair it all, assuming no damage when it's taken.

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Post #: 4438

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/10/2019 8:19:03 PM

zuluhour

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Should be an award here somewhere for longest conflict.

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Post #: 4439

RE: Once Again into the Breach - Mike (J) vs. tc464 (A) - 2/11/2019 1:42:39 AM

Mike Solli

Posts: 15792
Joined: 10/18/2000
From: the flight deck of the Zuikaku
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Zuluhour, you always are a wise guy.

Got the turn off. Fun turn for a change. This bug is killing me right now. I'll write it up tomorrow.

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