RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 2:02:04 AM

Canoerebel

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7/2/43 to 7/5/43

Bay of Bengal: The walking wounded make it to their destination without further hostile encounters. Several carriers and other capital ships are bound for the yards at Capetown. Most of the other ships, including all troop carriers, will reach Colombo tomorrow. Dave loaded up the lanes between the battle scene and Colombo with subs, but my guys went the long way around while Allied ASW sank two or three Japanese subs.

Damage Control: A damaged AE gives up the ghost on the way back to Ceylon, succumbing to moderately-heavy damage, as did CV Hornet a few turns earlier. In my last three games, I've often just wondered - not theorized, not hypothesized, but simply wondered on occasion - whether somehow Allied Damage Control got turned off. Back in UV days, ADC was an immense advantage. It no longer seems so. C'est la vie.

China: The MLR continues to hold; Dave continues to reinforce, especially just outside Changsha, where a couple of hexes are vulnerable; and there's no hope of relief through the medium term after the big invasion collapsed in flames and tears.

SoPac: Allies take Kwajalein. All that remains now are lightly defended Majuro and Maloelap.

Enemy Opportunities? Given his apparent preference for conservative strategic play, I don't think he'll try to reconquer the Marshalls or to conquer the Aleutians. I wonder about Cocos mainly, and perhaps Midway (but not much on that account).

Allied Intentions: The post-carrier-battle-loss funk didn't last quite as long as it usually does, partly because it's mid-1943, so it won't be that long before meaningful reinforcements arrive. I've looked at the ma and have notions as to what may happen next, when and where. But now extra caution must be taken, as another such loss would really setback possibilities.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 751

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 2:02:24 AM

Bif1961

Posts: 2014
Joined: 6/26/2008
From: Phenix City, Alabama
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Lee lost battles in 1862 and 1863, Malvern Hill, Sharpsburg and Gettysburg but recovered. However by 1864 he could no longer have that luxury. If the loses had been reversed in this battle Dave would find it very difficult to recover from them, losing 3-4 CVs have 2-3 more heavily damaged, not counting the surface ships sunk and damaged. The Americans at this point of the game start the ever increasing arsenal of Democracy benefit as the Essexs start rolling in as do the CVLs and CVEs. His losses will be made up in 3-4 months where it would be 12-18 months before the Japanese could repair and replace that many fleet carriers lost and heavily damaged, not counting the highly trained and experienced aircrews. The reason I use the civil war for this comparison is I know Dan is a huge civil war buff.

< Message edited by Bif1961 -- 6/12/2019 2:19:03 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 752

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 2:30:53 AM

Canoerebel

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Yeah, I do love the Civil War and the analogies. This may have been Chickamauga from the Union side of things. Tough defeat, scampering back to Chattanooga, have to hole up and absorb some threats, and wait until enough reinforcements arrive to resume the offensive in November 1863.

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Post #: 753

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 3:38:40 AM

WingCmdr

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From: BS, MT
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quote:

Lee lost battles in 1862 and 1863, Malvern Hill, Sharpsburg and Gettysburg but recovered. However by 1864 he could no longer have that luxury.

I really need a clarification.

Lee lost Malvern Hill?

What battle did Lee lose in 1862?

Same question for 1863? Gettysburg was a tactical draw.

Sharpsburg was not a loss, more like a tactical reversal.

It's not my thread, but you are clueless about the Civil War!!!!

You need to answer to these affronts to our GREAT GENERAL LEE!!!!

�lose lips sink ships.�

bif1961

< Message edited by WingCmdr -- 6/12/2019 9:22:30 AM >

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Post #: 754

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 10:15:51 AM

Uncivil Engineer

Posts: 1014
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From: Florida, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: WingCmdr

quote:

Lee lost battles in 1862 and 1863, Malvern Hill, Sharpsburg and Gettysburg but recovered. However by 1864 he could no longer have that luxury.

I really need a clarification.

Lee lost Malvern Hill?

What battle did Lee lose in 1862?

Same question for 1863? Gettysburg was a tactical draw.

Sharpsburg was not a loss, more like a tactical reversal.

It's not my thread, but you are clueless about the Civil War!!!!

You need to answer to these affronts to our GREAT GENERAL LEE!!!!

�lose lips sink ships.�

bif1961

Holy crap! Are we talking about the same Civil War? The one in the US from 1861 - 1865?

Antietam/Sharpsburg was a strategic defeat for Lee - a tactical victory only because of McClellan's incompetence.

Gettysburg was a strategic defeat for Lee - mainly because of Longstreet's lethargy. And a tactical defeat because he couldn't replace the losses. Of course, if Jackson hadn't been shot at Chancellorsville, the whole matter might have ended differently.

No body cares about Malvern Hill - but he lost.

(in reply to WingCmdr)

Post #: 755

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 2:20:57 PM

Miller

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From: Ashington, England.
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A very nasty set back for you Dan but not bad going 7 or 8 years without a CV battle defeat as the Allies! Max speed runs can be great for surprise, as in this case, however they burn up a ton of fuel and put 5-10 sys points of damage on most of the ships. I think he broke off because of lack of fuel rather than his air losses the day of the battle (he could fly land based Zeros etc to his CVs to make up losses). Are you playing some kind of mod? I've never seen the Judy 4 with its 800kg bomb load this early in a game before....

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/12/2019 3:11:17 PM

Canoerebel

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To my knowledge, we're playing straight Scenario 2.

P.S. Regarding the long road back, the RN CVs will now upgrade, which will increase aircraft capacity to 55. They'll then each take a 36-plane squadron of USN fighters formerly based on the CVs sunk during the clash. By the time the upgrades (and repairs) are complete, at least two more USN CVs will arrive. It's around then - autumn or thereabouts - that I might next consider fighting the enemy straight up.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 4:54:27 PM

Bif1961

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It was not war�it was murder.� This comment, from the Confederate then-Major General Daniel Harvey Hill, was written more than 20 years after the battle of Malvern Hill. It is one of the more famous summaries of a battle to come out of the vast literature on the Civil War.

The American Battlefield Trust's last paragraph summary of the battle states; When the last explosive musket flashes died out after dark, some 8000 men lay dead and wounded across a few hundred gruesome acres. More than 5000 of that number wore gray, victims of one of the most ill-managed and uncoordinated major assaults of the entire Civil War. I think they disagrees with you on who won and was it an important battle on 1 July, 1862.

Antietam aka, Sharpsburg, were 23,000 soldiers were killed, wounded or missing after twelve hours of savage combat on September 17, 1862. The Battle of Antietam ended the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia's first invasion into the North and led Abraham Lincoln to issue the preliminary Emancipation Proclamation. Historians noted the Lincoln was eager to have a victory so he could go forward with the Emancipation Proclamation, which help change the reason for the Civil War from reuniting the Union to wiping out slavery. Several European nations Britain, France and Spain were on the verge of recognizing the Confederacy as an independent nation and if the invasion of the North, by Lee had been successful, that recognition would almost certainly been forthcoming. France and Britain would have offered to broker a peace and if the North had refused their overtures, they planned to intervene, with at least breaking the blockade so that cotton could flow freely to Europe and supplies into the Confederacy. By losing the close fought battle, and retreating back into VA this ended the threat and with Lincoln now secure enough to announce the the Emancipation Proclamation, which was signed into law in January, 1863, it force European nations to decide if we support the Confederacy now we are supporting slavery. Antietam had many far reaching consequences in the halls of the White House and Capitol Hill, Richmond and European Capitols. "The Cause of All Nations" Don H. Doyle copyright 2015.

Gettysburg 1-3 July, 1863 was the South's last best hope to win their independence by showing they could not only defend themselves but visit military operations and defeat Northern Armies in the heartland of the North. If he had won the doorway to the Federal Capitol was wide open and the upcoming elections, even if the North was able to hold DC, would have been dramatically affected. Lee was defeated and took the blame for the loss, as a good commander does, and the Army of VA retreated once again across the Potomac never to be a serious threat again, though Jubal early invaded in 1864 more to drawn troops away from Richmond-Petersburg and try to retain the Shenandoah Valley, the bread basket of the south.

I have visited each of these battlefields including the Shenandoah Valley battlefields at least once and Gettysburg 3 times. Reviewing history is much like my 24 year Army Intelligence career, if you have a room with 10 analysts then you have 11 opinions. My comments are not meant to be an affront to the laudable achievements of General Lee, who probably accomplish more with less than any other American general. It is simply to compare and contrast that during war, sides are not always equal and one side can handle more attrition then another and wear down their opponents over time. Captain Hara said for Japan to be successful they would have to sink 3 Allied vessels and their own ship would have to return safely.

However, I think we can disagree without being disagreeable.

< Message edited by Bif1961 -- 6/13/2019 5:25:14 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 5:04:25 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for the Civil War discussion, gents. I'm am knowledgeable about a lot of Civil War history but not an expert about much except a few things mostly tied to Georgia history.

For what it's worth, I don't think foreign intervention was that close. I doubt Sharpsburg would have changed anything. And I think Britain found new sources of cotton, so that there was no real crisis (despite the South's hopes and expectations) as the war drew on.

crsutton had an ancestor that served in a Georgia regiment at Sharpsburg. He shared copies of the ancestor's correspondence a number of years ago. I have it saved in my file, in case I'm ever inclined to write about Sharpsburg or Georgians who were engaged there.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 5:12:37 PM

Simonsez

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Now that would be a treat, you writing about two things you thoruoghly enjoy. I'd buy a copy and I'm a blue-bellied Yankee.

Put the game down for a couple of years and just fired it back up this past week to refamiliarize myself with it. Playing Scenario 1 vrs. AI Japanese. I'll play into maybe mid to late 42 and then end it and switch sides to do the same thing with the Japanese. I close friend of mine picked up the game last year and maybe I can convince him to play a campaign scenario against me.

Entertaining and insightfull AAR as always.

_____________________________

Simonsez

It's a trap!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 5:16:27 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I'm glad you're still around and reading. :)

I seem to remember that, for many years, I was somehow under the impression that you were the army artillery forumite who lived in Alabama and occasionally got booted from the forum for expressing himself forcefully. Now I've forgotten his "handle." He was a fun guy to have around.

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Post #: 761

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 5:29:02 PM

Canoerebel

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Ahhhhh, fuggedaboutit!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/13/2019 6:33:58 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 5:34:59 PM

Simonsez

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I've visited Gettysburg and Vicksburg as the only two Civil War battlefileds I have fully explored. My family comes from the SW corner of WI (Lancaster) and reportedly has one of the earliest Civil War monuments on the Courthouse grounds. Apparently fund raising begain in 1862 and the monument was dedicated on July 4th, 1867. There is also a fantastic zinc statue of a Norther soldier (a "blue boy" ?) nearby. Link below to a short write up on the monument (with pictures).

https://civilwartalk.com/threads/lancaster-wisconsin.106125/

Just the one photo of names from one side of the 12 pillars of names contains three or four sir names of kids I went to junior high and high school with. I'm not aware of any of my direct family ancestory being involved in the Civial War or in any of America's wars for that matter, even though my family's roots here can be traced back to before the 13 colonies. Plenty served, but they all seemed to serve moastly during peactime. The closest anyone got to my knowledge was my Dad who received three Vietnam deferements (in college seeking his doctaral degree, then maried, then married with children (me), as he tells it.) His two older brothers were in the Army Reserve during Korea, but never made it past Seattle before the armistice was signed.

< Message edited by Simonsez -- 6/13/2019 5:49:02 PM >

_____________________________

Simonsez

It's a trap!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 6:30:37 PM

T Rav

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CR,

Loyal follower and happy for the side jaunts into the South. I don't get enough of that as a displaced Florida-Boy. Stationed in GA, TX and AL as well.

Thank You,
Trav

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 6:34:33 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for reading. :)

I love the South.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 6:38:24 PM

Anachro

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I love the south; I'm from the south. Southern California, that is!

(I also like the south south too)

One of my favorite visits as a kid was to the Spotsylvania battlefield where a very excellent park ranger gave us a in-depth account of the battle and the brutal, trench warfare around the bloody angle.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 6/13/2019 6:39:22 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 6:42:41 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I think I'd love wherever I happened to live in the USA, based upon what I've seen in my travels across the country and encounters with the people I've met. If life happened to set me in Bath, New Hampshire, or Farmington, New Mexico, or Port Clinton, Pennsylvania, life would be just as good, I'm sure. I do love the South, but I don't mean it's better than any other region.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/13/2019 6:43:07 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/13/2019 6:45:33 PM

Anachro

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I spent college in Lexington, Virginia. Also the site of VMI where Stonewall Jackson taught. Washington & Lee University there is where R. Lee went after the war and became president of the college. Lots of history there. Also very beautiful place. I did a lot of hiking in the Blueridge mountains.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/14/2019 3:32:13 AM

Canoerebel

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Virginia's Blue Ridge country is gorgeous. :)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/22/2019 7:43:03 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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7/8/43 to 8/12/43

This may be a record AAR entry interval for me. Five weeks of game time!

China: The MLR remains intact but has me worried. Dave has me outnumbered and badly outgunned at Changsha, and on a smaller scale (for both sides) the two hexes to the south. He also outnumbers my guys at Sian but he doesn't have a ton of arty there. I keep plugging leaks, feeding in good units and then watching them slowly deteriorate under sustained bombardments. The MLR is eventually going to buckle somewhere. But considering he brought all of his Singapore arty over here, plus more infantry divisions to boot, the Chinese have done pretty darned well.

Carrier Forces: After the great debacle in the Bay of Bengal, the Allied carriers retired to repair and/or upgrade. The RN heavies need about 60-70 more days to complete their work. All USN fleet carriers are fully operational, as are all CVEs but two. One of those is repairing at Capetown, the other disbanded at a Pacific dot hex a year ago and now in an ARD, repairing FLT damage.

Japanese Intentions: Dave continues to work heavily on his MLR without getting fancy or aggressive. SigInt reports an Army HQ prepping for Cocos. That's a tough target for him but it's one place I can see him attacking. He has a carrier TF at Koepang - the same one that sprinted down the Oz coast when I feinted towards Port Headland six weeks back. Other than that, I don't know where the bulk of his carriers are. I don't necessarily need to know right now but it would help a lot come about two months.

Allied Intentions: I'll soon move on Majuro, the last (and lightly held) enemy outpost in the Marshalls. I have ideas for what comes next but its partly dependent on where Dave's carriers are. I don't want to suffer another carrier defeat.

What Went Wrong: I think about the Bay of Bengal battle frequently. The Allied forces (land, sea, air) were well organized and equipped and prepared and positioned. I had good information about some of his carriers and about his garrisons. I felt confident that I understood his thinking and that he had to have enough carriers in the Pacific to give me local superiority in the Bay of Bengal. I was way wrong. That bothers me - was I predictable? Did I overlook something? Was this luck or design or both? I don't have any real answers yet, so I'm glad it's not time to move forward again.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/24/2019 2:10:18 AM

Bif1961

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Though the Allies might forget about this the Japanese get SIGINT too, not nearly a smuch as as good but maybe enough and timely?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/6/2019 6:09:14 PM

Canoerebel

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8/13/43 to 9/25/43

It's been three months since the Battle of the Bay of Bengal. I've been licking my wounds ever since, preparing for the next big things. Dave, meantime, is content to work on his MLR. He never probes or attacks. Except in China, which has been the focal point the past several months. That's a challenging theater for the Allies but things are going pretty well.

China: Things were getting really dicey at Sian and the Changsha front about two months back. Daily bombings combined with big enemy arty bombardments were cutting into Allied AV and supply at a rate I couldn't sustain. I countered by bringing in three good P-47D squadrons from Burma. They've downed enough good enemy fighters and bombers to persuade Dave to almost totally stand down his airforce in China. That, in turn, has basically halved the rate of AV erosion. The current situation seems sustainable. Also, the -47Ds went to Sian for a few turns and downed a bunch of transport aircraft toting supply. Supply seems to be an issue for him in this sector. Bottom line: The Chinese MLR is exactly the same as it was last post, six weeks back, and overall security seems better.

Attachment (2)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/6/2019 6:11:02 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/20/2019 3:14:35 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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9/26/43 to 11/6/43

I came down with a severe UTI this week, necessitating my first doctor's visit since 2006. Dying seemed like a blissful alternative to how I felt Wednesday and Thursday. But I seem to be on the mend and the world no longer seems a dank, cheerless place without hope or succor.

Chess Match: Dave has implemented a thoughtful, crafty, extreme Sir Robin defense. He established a modest perimeter early and since then has essentially never come further forward. He's struck a few times when I've come forward (to his disadvantage in the Gilberts an to his immense advantage in the Bay of Bengal). We both appear to like the defense - like Longstreet, take the high ground and let the enemy attack. John III is so aggressive that I was able to play an aggressive form of defense that was effective against his boldness. In this game, Dave and I are circling, taking the measure of the other, and awaiting the next eruption. The carrier defeat in the Bay was a huge blow. Since then, I've been attending to planning and logistics and little probes. But the time isn't too far off when the Allies will move forward in strength. If I suffer another major carrier defeat it might be curtains for Allied hopes of a timely victory. One other note: Dave is a superb opponent. He is quiet and thoughtful and occasionally humorous. He flips turns like crazy. He's a great guy (as have been all my opponents, with some differences here and there).

China: The MLR is still intact! Dave shifted most of his hopes to Sian but the Chinese have parried the thrust thus far. B-24s at Chungking are lending a hand, disruption his 41st Div. He's having some trouble with supply and air defense. If the Chinese can hold, the future is considerably rosier.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/20/2019 3:15:07 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/20/2019 3:50:07 PM

RangerJoe

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UTIs are not fun. I had one after a 9 by 14 mm kidney stone was removed surgically.

The next time that I had a 9 mm kidney stone, I knew what to do and I barely felt it when I passed it . . .

That said, drink cranberry juice. Blueberries are in the same family and have some of the same benefits.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 774

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/20/2019 3:51:14 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Will do, Ranger Joe. Cold cranberry juice sounds very appealing right now.

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Post #: 775

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/20/2019 4:51:51 PM

T Rav

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CR,

Glad to see you back and on the mend.

T Rav

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/20/2019 4:54:52 PM

Bif1961

Posts: 2014
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From: Phenix City, Alabama
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Glad to have you up and at'em again.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/25/2019 1:47:39 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/6/43 to 11/27/43

Intellectus ex Nihilo: Information played the pivotal role in Allied ops in late November. As the month dawned, I had a general notion of moving on Wake Island by mid-December. Lack of information about KB, and the possibility of losing a crippling carrier battle, left me on edge trying to figure out some way to maximize Allied chances. By mid-November, I began getting information about a small carrier force responding to Allied probes in the Solomons. Then, the first recon of Singapore (from Cocos) resulted in a fantastic report - KB posted there. So I immediately triggered the invasion of Wake, despite a number of carriers still coming inbound. The invasion boarded the best amphibs, so made good time escorted by the CVEs. DS, meanwhile, took a southwesterly course, hoping to spring an ambush on the smaller enemy carriers force near Ontong Java (near Tulagi). Here's the information that counted:

Attachment (1)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/25/2019 3:29:14 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/27/43

Wake Island: The Allies easily take the base on D-Day (thank goodness!). The plan and prepping for this were in the works for months, but information about enemy carrier disposition allowed immediate triggering and proceeding with confidence.

Carriers: Dave got detection on part of DS near the Marshalls, ending the chances for a carrier ambush. Recon doesn't show enemy carriers at Singapore, suddenly. I assume they are moving to the Pacific ASAP. But I should have about 10 days to operate in the clear - enough time to proceed with the invasion of Ponape (I think).

Attachment (1)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 7/25/2019 3:37:01 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/29/43

Battle of Kusaie Island: This turn opens with report of enemy carrier search planes finding DS...and then DS search planes finding enemy carriers just to the SW. Oh my! The dream set up - I've had excellent detection on him for more than a week, he's had little or none on my carriers, and the Allies should have a sizeable advantage in quantity.

The a.m. phase opens with the Japanese alpha strike. It's far too small to take on Allied CAP, taking heavy losses and scoring no hits. And that's it - no follow up strikes.

Attachment (1)

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