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Dice roll - 8/19/2019 9:18:00 AM

sapper32

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Hi it seems to me that every time I get a prediction for combat of 1/1 I attack and get whacked 2/0 not good when fighting the indestructible Germans am I just unlucky ?

Ian

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RE: Dice roll - 8/19/2019 10:02:47 PM

Tidavis

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From: Peoria, Illinois
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Really bad subject for me. I don't know how many times the predictor as hit me with losses of 3 when 0 was the prediction. It happens with too much regularity for this to be an anomaly.

< Message edited by Tidavis -- 8/19/2019 10:03:45 PM >

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RE: Dice roll - 8/20/2019 8:33:32 AM

sapper32

Posts: 1197
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From: Warminster England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tidavis

Really bad subject for me. I don't know how many times the predictor as hit me with losses of 3 when 0 was the prediction. It happens with too much regularity for this to be an anomaly.

Yeah I just had a 2/2 prediction turn into 4/0 that will be another unit gone next turn it's not like the Germans need a helping hand when it comes to combat

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RE: Dice roll - 8/20/2019 9:59:46 AM

Boonierat1972

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Not sure combat prediction takes everything into account like supply or morale.

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RE: Dice roll - 8/20/2019 12:23:26 PM

Hubert Cater

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A 2/2 prediction should never go to 4/0 as that would be a bug unless this is a modified campaign, as the most should be a +/- 1 on either the attacker prediction, or the defender prediction, or both. Is this straight combat, or perhaps Tactical Bomber with surprised interception or similar?

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RE: Dice roll - 8/21/2019 8:31:24 AM

Hartmann

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I think these are mostly distorted observations where losses stand out more in perception and memory.

The only situations where I find predictions can be far off (>1) is with bombers of any kind (including naval) as the predictions seem to not (or at least not always) take CAP/interception into account. (I guess the formula only takes into account what's not under FOW.)

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RE: Dice roll - 8/21/2019 10:37:04 AM

sapper32

Posts: 1197
Joined: 5/7/2007
From: Warminster England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hartmann

I think these are mostly distorted observations where losses stand out more in perception and memory.

The only situations where I find predictions can be far off (>1) is with bombers of any kind (including naval) as the predictions seem to not (or at least not always) take CAP/interception into account. (I guess the formula only takes into account what's not under FOW.)

I have seen this time and time again if 1/1 Is predicted it generally means I'm going to get beat 2/0 I've had this happen in consecutive attacks against the same target, I'm not prepared to stop attacking as this is generally the best odds I'm going to get, Another not uncommon occurrence is a 1/0 attack actually resulting in the opposite, I have not got a problem with some random results but one going my way does not seem to happen.

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RE: Dice roll - 8/21/2019 5:55:12 PM

Sugar

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Possible outcomes of a 1:1 (attacker/defender losses) prediction considering the +-1 rule: 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:1, 2:2, 2:0, 0:1 and 0:2.

There are also additional restrictions to possible outcomes: you can't obviously gain health points during combats nor destroy more enemy healthpoints than existing. That's the reason why attackers generally suffer more casualties than predicted.

Other implications are the losses/gains of xp for the unit itself and its HQ. While units gain xp by fighting, HQs have to "win" a fight to gain xp, otherwise they will lose some.

The only exception to the combat rule is in case the defending unit is fleeing during combat, usually resulting in higher damage to the defender and/or fewer damage to the attacker.

Especially in WWI-Breakthrough with the limited attaches to an HQ, this could result in losing xp and units where you never expected to; the reason I demanded to limit possible outcomes to + or -1 in the upcoming WW1 game.

Funfact: while playing WiE the randomisation has been canceled accidentally for more than half a year, and no player complained about, neither the Axis nor the Allies.

Allthough I think some randomisation is okay, I guess the reason why it`s so annoying in WaW and WiE is the generally low combat results of units like corps due to their low attack value. If the prediction would be 4:4, +-1 wouldn't have such an annoying influence. And the Axis would actually be in danger to lose some units during early russian counterattacks.

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