RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 1:57:30 PM

Gridley380

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I'm also impressed with sinking 15 subs in short order - it looks like you use aircraft on ASW patrol (presumably with good ASW skill and setting patrol arcs) to locate possible contacts, then set ASW TFs to patrol those hexes? I've found setting my ASW TFs to higher threat tolerance seems to improve their results but haven't done any really serious analysis. Any other 'tricks' you've found worthwhile?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 2:23:21 PM

Canoerebel

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There were no real tricks here. Dave had a bunch of wolfpacks well-positioned at Milne Bay and Port Moresby. There was nothing to do other than configure the TFs and aircraft as best as possible and trust to luck. A fair number of subs were sunk by combat TFs (the DDs). I have some TBFs with good ASW pilots set to 70% ASW, range zero. Each armada has a number of dedicated ASW TFs (mostly PF and DE). That's the same kind of stuff we all do, right?

Tt's not full proof, as CVE Liscombe Bay proved, but it offers the best chance. The friction of proximity is gonna ensure that both sides generally take losses.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 7:47:21 PM

Crackaces

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were no real tricks here. Dave had a bunch of wolfpacks well-positioned at Milne Bay and Port Moresby. There was nothing to do other than configure the TFs and aircraft as best as possible and trust to luck. A fair number of subs were sunk by combat TFs (the DDs). I have some TBFs with good ASW pilots set to 70% ASW, range zero. Each armada has a number of dedicated ASW TFs (mostly PF and DE). That's the same kind of stuff we all do, right?

Tt's not full proof, as CVE Liscombe Bay proved, but it offers the best chance. The friction of proximity is gonna ensure that both sides generally take losses.

I do like the use of TBF's .. but I took mine off the carriers and kept them around Pearl Harbor .. to eventually get well trained ASW .. the TBF's will drop a bomb but better yet raise detection levels .. so the DD's can smash those sub's.. Another strategy early on is to use those yard patrol boats with a asw of 1 as bait .. I got a IJN sub to spend 10 torps over 4 days .. better that than a AK or something better ..

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 8:43:49 PM

Anachro

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I always make sure that the TBF pilots on my carriers have trained ASW up to at least 60+; they can then perform valuable heavy ASW duty during amphibious ops where carriers and other vessels are stuck for a period of time off the coast of a landmass. In such cases, much like at the Marianas, the primary duty of my carriers is defense, not attack. Having your TBF squadrons set primarily to ASW can be pretty effective on enemy subs in the area...and helps your surface vessels in their ASW efforts as well by keeping D/L on enemy subs high.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 8/13/2019 8:44:16 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/13/2019 9:15:15 PM

Canoerebel

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Some of my torpedo squadrons have 70-skill ASW pilots. And some of my small CVE squadrons train in that skill first, ahead of torpedo bombing.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 4:22:53 AM

Lovejoy

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Nice job on clobbering his subs. Every one sunk now is one he won't have later.

I think ASW operations planning is a game within the game. It's one of my favorite things to micromanage; it's great fun to coordinate air ASW patrols with naval ASW to vector a couple 3 KV/DE TFs right on top of an enemy sub.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 10:47:29 AM

SuluSea

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

Nice job on clobbering his subs. Every one sunk now is one he won't have later.

I think ASW operations planning is a game within the game. It's one of my favorite things to micromanage; it's great fun to coordinate air ASW patrols with naval ASW to vector a couple 3 KV/DE TFs right on top of an enemy sub.

Agreed, if you know the enemy carriers won't be around and you know there's many enemy subs operating in your area put everything (minus CAP) in the CV TF on ASW...

You'll see plenty of damaged or destroyed subs with the added bonus of cheap skill/experience bumps.

Looking forward to the next invasion when the opportunity presents itself.

< Message edited by SuluSea -- 8/14/2019 10:55:53 AM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 11:29:35 AM

Canoerebel

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2/14/44 to 2/19/44

New Guinea: While the fleet is in triage at Townsville it became clear that Merauke was lightly defended and susceptible to invasion by fast transport. That took place, beginning around the 15th. Dave didn't contest things, and this important (to me) base fell on the 19th.

The Fun Stuff: That (mostly) brings to a close the complex, risky Allied plan. From 11/20 to 2/19, the Allies took Wake, Milne Bay, Ponape, Port Moresby, Rabaul, Lunga and Merauke. In doing so, Mini KB was wiped out and a bunch of very nice targets of opportunity fell (Manus, Aitape, Wewak, etc.). There's clean-up work to be done in this theater, so more fighting is likely, but this long, complex series of ops went remarkably well.

Gulp: The Allies are prepped and positioned for the next series of targets. Those will be much tougher and it will be nearly impossible to proceed without engaging KB. How, when and where to begin things is a matter of intense consideration.

Triage: Four turns ago, there were 120 ships at pierside in Townsville! That's down to about 55 now, and nearly all will be ready to go inside five days. Already the fleet could go if necessary but I still have to make those hard decisions.

China: An entire Japanese army (27 units) has withdrawn from Sian, heading east. A couple of B-24 squadrons were hitting the base daily, causing disruption and light losses. Also, Dave may have had wearisome supply issues. This is a major victory, but now it becomes vital to predict where that army goes. It could come right back here. It could go north. But most likely it heads south to help overwhelm at a give point, such as Changsha or a nearby contested hex. I have a few units in reserve that way. More will get on the road from Sian, but Dave's route-of-travel is much quicker. A tough and challenging balancing act, but fun.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 4:28:23 PM

Anachro

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Fun stuff. The more I play this game, the more I realize how important it is to have deep follow-on ops planned, so as to quickly exploit the holes created by initial frontal attacks on a main line of defense.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 4:33:40 PM

BBfanboy

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When DS went to Townsville, Dave had the same situation as you - he didn't know where it was and had to suspect it might be ready to pounce when you did the Merauke invasion.
Your previous battles shot down a lot of Netties, probably making him reluctant to send torpedo attacks at anything smaller than an APA or CA, and perhaps hampering his ability to send out long range naval search.
This game is hell when you don't have any info at all on your opponent's major forces! If you have suffered major losses and feel you need to stop the bleeding for a while, you are paralyzed. I think Dave is waiting and licking his wounds.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/14/2019 4:46:41 PM

Canoerebel

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That's true. Dave doesn't have recon on Townsville, though he is getting some 1/0 pings. DS's disappearance after Lunga may have him looking (again) for a move against Java, Sumatra or Malaya.

Regarding Anachro's comment, you're right, but it's difficult. In my game with Obvert, the massive Allied invasion of Sikhalin Island in June 1944 including a sizeable contingent of troops prepped for Korea! I was trying to "plan for success," but that was so wildly improbable that it was counterproductive. I'd have been much better off prepping for the Kuriles or Hokkaido. I learned something.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 2:08:31 PM

Canoerebel

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2/20/44 to 3/2/44

SigInt: Dave has kept KB hidden. I suspect its somewhere near Sorong or points nearby and west, such as Kendari or possibly Palau - a central position from which it can react to threats from the DEI or SWPac. Today, I got this SigInt report. Bima is a level one port east of Soerabaja (and just out of range of Allied recon from Cocos Island). It's a good location for a KB. Is there any reason to strongly suspect that DD Hatsuyaki is of a class commonly associated with KB, or of a class unlikely to be used with KB, or is it simply too uncertain to make any deductions whatsoever?

SWPac: With DS back online, the fleet and The Herd returned to the Solomon Sea, dropping invasion forces at Choiseul Island (vacant) and Shortlands, landing aviation support at Rabaul, and handling the invasion of Kaveing tomorrow. The latter seems weakly defended. The enemy at Shortlands is decent but the Allied force, small though it is, includes tanks that battered the enemy on a probing deliberate attack. And if Kavieng goes well, the Allied ships have reinforcements for Manus and Aitape also. Paratroops took a vacant Finchshaven. Lae is a major enemy base - the last Dave seems to be using.

I debated whether to reveal DS after it's 10-day R&R at Townsville. Ultimately, the decision was to handle matters around New Georgia since I'm not ready to press against a KB-sized force yet. But that day may not be too far off.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 2:34:54 PM

JohnDillworth

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Havn't seen the strategic map in a bit. Although ambitious, one wonders if taking Truk is a possibility.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 2:38:26 PM

Canoerebel

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Truk is strongly garrisoned and I have no troops prepping for it. The planned axis of advance renders Truk largely irrelevant, at least in the next six months. But Allied troops are prepping for Yap and Wolei. How can they be relevant if Truk isn't? Stay tuned.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 2:44:32 PM

Anachro

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I agree. These things are always contextual, dependent to the particular game being played and its multitude of outcomes, but Truk can easily be bypassed and have happen to it what happened in the real world: simply neutralize it using carrier air power/sea power and effectively take it out of the war along with its garrison.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 3:14:01 PM

BBfanboy

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Hatsuyuki is a Fubuki Class DD - 6X5" guns and 9X 24"TT. A capable ship with weak AA. Older than the Kageros.

If it had been Hatsuzuki, an Akizuki class ship with 8X 3.9" RF guns (very good AA) I would be more certain it was with KB, but Hatsuyuki could be on ASW duty - or it could be with KB. Does that help?

http://www.combinedfleet.com/kaigun.htm

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/17/2019 11:20:17 PM

SuluSea

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there any reason to strongly suspect that DD Hatsuyaki is of a class commonly associated with KB, or of a class unlikely to be used with KB, or is it simply too uncertain to make any

Early war a definite no because of poor AA and it doesn't have the legs of other classes the KB being located closer to fuel sources the smaller fuel tanks wouldn't be an issue.

Some later upgrades on the Fubuki gives fair AA to the class but it still lags behind other DDs players traditionally use in KB and mini KB.

With attrition it's possible but I'd lean heavily towards a no.

Thanks for the update.

< Message edited by SuluSea -- 8/17/2019 11:22:10 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/19/2019 11:33:59 AM

Canoerebel

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3/3/44 to 3/8/44

Meeting Engagement: As this period opened, Allied transports protected by full DS advanced into the Bismarck Sea to cover reinforcements inbound to Rabaul. NavSearch continually reported heavy Japanese combat TFs at Hollandia. DS then moved west, towards Finschafen, to cover transports moving north, bound for that base plus Manus plus Aitape. As they neared that place, Dave still hadn't moved his combat ships, so I ordered DS forward at flank speed. Some combat TFs sank a bunch of enemy ASW TFs off Hollandia but weather largely shut down any strikes vs. shipping at Hollandia.

So the jig is up, right? Dave sees DS right at his doorstep. He'll flee, getting his good ships out of harm's way. Relying on that assessment, I sent the Aitape and Manus transports forward, pulled DS back just a bit, and figured it would be a quiet turn.

Only it wasn't. Dave sent his combat TFs forward, probably intent on mixing things up to delay a perceived Allied move on Hollandia until KB could arrive. KB shows up near Manikwari on the 8th and may proceed at flank...or Allied subs may continue to breathe caution into Dave.

DS ended up close to three enemy CAs, which ended up amidst a host of Allied shipping. Fireworks opened with USN DD forces sparring with Dave's TFs, neither side scoring any knockouts but Myoko TF running out of ammo. DS strikes sortied all over the place, missing too many times and sometimes seeking merchantmen instead of combat ships. Myoko is crippled and probably sunk, along with four or five enemy DDs and a sub.

An Allied sub misses shots at Kaga and is sunk.

An enemy sub scores a hit on Bunker Hill.

Four xAKs, an xAP and a DE bound for Aitape go under, taking a Marine CD force with them. But reinforcements land in big numbers at Manus and Finschafen.

And now what? DS & The Herd will retire - the Herd components at Manus to Rabaul, all other ships towards Milne Bay. Taking that vector, they'll be in position to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria if Dave overcommits KB or if Allied subs manage a hit or two on KB.

I don't think Dave will send KB forward at flank. I think he'll prefer to protect Hollandia and remain in a position to retire to the DEI, poste haste.

Knowing how highly he regards Hollandia is useful info.

That was a wild, rollicking turn.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/19/2019 4:11:57 PM

Canoerebel

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3/9/44

New Guinea Theater: Dave pushed KB hard but chose a course that took her where there were no targets. KB and DS ended up 10 hexes apart. Tomorrow, nearly all Allied ships should reach or approach Milne Bay. I don't think Dave will chance the straights to enter the Solomon Sea, but he's tactically uber aggressive. KB has 950 aircraft (this is based on just one day of navsearch, so may be low). DS has 1400, but about 500 of that is CVEs. DS is almost strong enough to seek battle (and another CV will arrive on scene in about a week).

With KB committed, using fuel, and in waters patrolled by Allied subs, there's a chance that friction will cause losses or slow downs or missteps. Therefore, three Allied invasion fleets are at sea, targeting targets of opportunity, so to speak. I won't commit any of these unless the conditions continue to be favorable, which I think will be the case for at least one.

The Japanese lead is 28.6k to 22.9k. While these campaigns are fought on their own merits, I'm keeping an eye on the AV ratio and the all-important denominator. AV seems attainable in this game. In this little campaign, the Allies have thus far scored well in air losses and combat ship losses (having lost one small DD and one good sub, while Japan has probably lost a CA, four DDs and at least one sub, possibly two). In terms of merchant losses, an Allied TF worth about 55 points was sunk, and I think the Japanese have lost about 75 points. That makes the overall points ratio for the past two turns maybe 2:1 in favor of the Allies - okay but not great. It's very hard to score decisively when two large bodies collide, creating friction and the unexpected meeting engagements.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/19/2019 4:22:17 PM

BBfanboy

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Over the years the biggest losses I have seen for KB clashing with Allied carriers happened when the Allies had transports also in range of the KB strikes. The AI split the KB strikes to go after both transports and the Allied carriers, sinking a few transports but having their strikes decimated and doing minimal damage to the Allies.
You have such a situation with all your amphib forces, so you probably do not need to fear losing a carrier battle while DS is with all the bait ships.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 12:07:24 AM

SuluSea

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

DS is almost strong enough to seek battle (and another CV will arrive on scene in about a week).

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 1:34:01 AM

Bif1961

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In a recent carrier clash the KB came in at flank speed against my landing at Hollandia 6 June, 1943. He had it split into 3 TFs and one TF had a CA take a trop from a sub that slowed it up and split slowed that TF enough to have it lag behind the other two. His strikes came in split up against my 3 TFs with 2 CVs each, having about 66% fighters aboard. I also had 8 CVEs with 75% fighters aboard protecting the Hollandia landing in the hex while my CVs were 2 hexes to the NW expecting the KB to engage. The KB ended up being NE and N of my CVs and Hollandia. His attacks were not coordinated, partially from having the KB split between 2 hexes, and were handled by the CVs CAP and CVEs CAP damaging two CVEs only, one later sinking. My CV strike was better coordinated but still split between the two different KB elements in two different hexes. The end result was he lost 5 CVs, 2 CVLs, 1 BB, 2 CAs, 2 CLs and 4 DDs. My CVEs were on CAP and ASW ops so contributed no strike aircraft. The American fleet carriers had about 550 AC and the KB 500. It probably would have been a different story if that CA hadn't been slowed by the sub torp hit during the night but that was the nail that cost a horse shoe, that cost the horse that cost the General that lost the battle.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 2:05:49 AM

Canoerebel

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That's the way things come about. I'd like to think DS would win a battle but who knows. On that fateful turn about five days back, a USN sub takes six shots at Kaga and misses; an IJN sub takes six shots at Bunker Hill and scores a hit. And that might've proven decisive, even as your example with the Japanese CA.

When a big battle occurs, I'll be a long way from a friendly port. Dave will be a short distance from Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard, or from Truk/Saipan/etc. Whatever can be done to improve the odds or outthink the enemy is worth it.

P.S. Bunker Hill has 10 SYS, 20 FLT (all major) and no ENG. She's nearly to Townsville, where two ARDs, each with enough capacity to handle her, are waiting. It's good to have those assets properly positioned, and that's just the kind of thing that's been going on behind the scenes since the big Bay of Bengal battle nine months ago.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 1:56:59 PM

jwolf

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quote:

Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard

It's only 8 in stock. I could believe some expansion, but 51??

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 2:05:19 PM

Canoerebel

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Yeah, somehow Dave expanded Soerabaja shipyard to size 51. He probably did so because he didn't get Singapore's shipyard for a long, long, long time.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 2:28:32 PM

jwolf

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I sure wish they would let the Allies do that. Thanks for the clarification.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 2:45:20 PM

Anachro

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It's a tough call to make. You can expand repair facilities, but then if the Allies take them they also get those same facilities, so it might not be a good idea to expand repair shipyards close to the front lines. Trade-off decision that Japanese players have to make.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 3:48:48 PM

Canoerebel

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There are several other matches ongoing in which the opponents are fighting over the same territory that Dave and I are fighting over, but much earlier. Here it's spring '44 and I'm just entering territory other Allied players are contesting in mid-43. Am I doing something wrong or something right? That remains to be seen, but I feel good about things.

Before I proceed, I'd better make it clear that I'm not saying my way is right and others are wrong. There are many ways to play the game. This time, I'm doing things differently, focusing on the Japanese "denominator," a strategy that came about largely because Dave has played such a radical Sir Robin defense for Japan (and that, too, isn't a negative comment; his strategy is a viable one and interesting and it's given me a problem to solve, which is always fun). In games vs. John III, he is so aggressive that the Allied player can get surprised and often has to make stands to prevent John from accomplishing more than he should. As a result of such pressure, proximity, friction and fighting, the two sides clash much more frequently than Dave and I have....and, to an extent, any clash that results in less than a 2:1 victory for the Allies helps Japan drag out the war (the exception being if Japan is crippled in some way and thus less able to defend/fight going forward).

In the game between John III and Anacrho, the points ratio as of 6/1/43 is approximately 45k to 28.5k, using just approximate numbers. The difference is 17k and the Allies are 61.5k away from AV (assuming that was the score in 1945, when 2:1 is necessary).

In my game with Dave, it's nine months later, so you'd think the scores would be higher. But Japan leads 28.5k to 23k. That's a difference of 5.5 k. The Allies would need 34k to achieve AV if this was the score in '45.

If I can keep Dave's score down - keep that denominator low - the route to victory is considerably easier. By that measure, the Allies are much closer to AV. Of course, events can change the equation drastically. And there's the question of whether Dave is better prepared to fight than John III, going forward.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 9:12:52 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

Soerabaja, with it's size 51 shipyard

It's only 8 in stock. I could believe some expansion, but 51??

Actual size is probably 50. The game always adds one to industry when you do a mouse rollover.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 8/20/2019 9:54:00 PM

Canoerebel

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Why didn't I know that?

The Lord knows when a sparrow falls, counts the hairs on our head, the sand in the sea and the stars in the sky....and that's about how many things I don't know about this game.

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