RE: Notes from a Small Island

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 4:44:14 PM

BillBrown

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Dave? Dave's not here.

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Post #: 4381

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 6:40:34 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm gonna have to resort to a generic terms, such as "opponent." That'll be lovely: "Today, Opponent made a big mistake when he set all Zeros to crash."

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Post #: 4382

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 7:01:38 PM

Crackaces

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm gonna have to resort to a generic terms, such as "opponent." That'll be lovely: "Today, Opponent made a big mistake when he set all Zeros to crash."

You notice I used IJ, IJA, IJN .. Allies .. avoids misinterpretation ..

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"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

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Post #: 4383

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 7:21:05 PM

Canoerebel

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But it's so impersonal.

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Post #: 4384

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 7:32:05 PM

BillBrown

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I'm sorry, I could not pass up the Cheech and Chong reference.

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Post #: 4385

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 7:35:42 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Dave? Dave's not here.

All part of the AAR maskirovka to avoid leaks to obvert!

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to BillBrown)

Post #: 4386

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 8/13/2019 7:41:11 PM

BBfanboy

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Re: the units advancing on Yenan - if they go directly on the path of the arrow it takes forever to cross the river from wooded rough to rough terrain. Having done the trip several times it is much better to go to the crossroads SW of Yenan and take the road across the river. It will still be slow, but at least 10 days faster than the overland route (minus the four days to go to the crossroads).

Nothing much at isolated Yenan anyway, unless you want it for the points and/or to take out an airfield he could potentially use to harass you.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 4387

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/4/2019 5:19:17 PM

BillBrown

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What happened to this game. Still going?

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Post #: 4388

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/4/2019 5:29:00 PM

Canoerebel

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Still going, still as much fun as ever, but Erik has slowed down a lot. Turn around has become pretty erratic.

The Allies are still progressing on the plan. At the moment, about 6k AV just landed on Formosa; an Allied army is bearing down on Sian (thence goes to Chungking); the Allis took Tientsin, so rail transport is available from Nanking to Russia and Korea, and vice versa; Peiping is under siege and likely will fall within the month; and the Russians and Japanese are in a face off on an MLR stretching from Keijo to Gunzan. Most importantly, perhaps, is that engineers and aviation support have arrived at Heijo, and interior Korean city. Currently it's a level 4 airfield. When it reaches level 8 (possibly ten days), the Allies can engage in strategic bombing from the south, from the center, and from the north. That's the long term plan.

P.S. It's October 1, 1945, the score is something like Allies 109k, Japan 85k. Chungking, Peiping, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and the Formosa cities offer a lot of points (either numerator additions or denominator subtractions), as does Heijo, which will add a lot when the airfield is built out. But strategic bombing (and getting at the Japanese ships in their safe harbors under 500 fighter CAP) are the real points-makers. And the Japanese air force, as always, is a beastie.

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Post #: 4389

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/4/2019 5:36:08 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Still going, still as much fun as ever, but Erik has slowed down a lot. Turn around has become pretty erratic.

The Allies are still progressing on the plan. At the moment, about 6k AV just landed on Formosa; an Allied army is bearing down on Sian (thence goes to Chungking); the Allis took Tientsin, so rail transport is available from Nanking to Russia and Korea, and vice versa; Peiping is under siege and likely will fall within the month; and the Russians and Japanese are in a face off on an MLR stretching from Keijo to Gunzan. Most importantly, perhaps, is that engineers and aviation support have arrived at Heijo, and interior Korean city. Currently it's a level 4 airfield. When it reaches level 8 (possibly ten days), the Allies can engage in strategic bombing from the south, from the center, and from the north. That's the long term plan.

P.S. It's October 1, 1945, the score is something like Allies 109k, Japan 85k. Chungking, Peiping, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and the Formosa cities offer a lot of points (either numerator additions or denominator subtractions), as does Heijo, which will add a lot when the airfield is built out. But strategic bombing (and getting at the Japanese ships in their safe harbors under 500 fighter CAP) are the real points-makers. And the Japanese air force, as always, is a beastie.

In 1945, with experienced bomber squadrons you should be able to port strike at night with good results. Go in low (3K) and most of the NF will be too high.

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Post #: 4390

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/4/2019 5:38:58 PM

Canoerebel

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Port strikes limited to 50 bombers. Enemy flak and a handful of night fighters will make the mission about break-even - some ships sunk, but more heavy bombers lost.

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Post #: 4391

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2019 2:13:34 PM

Canoerebel

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10/2/45 to 10/10/45

Eastern Asia: I haven't been posting regularly, partly because my game with Dave (and maintaining that AAR) has taken a lot of time; partly because, in this game, the Allies have been working on ground campaigns, especially at Peiping, Sian and Formosa. Important things are happening; and we're nearing the game-end scenario, so it's time for an update.

The second atomic bomb still isn't available. I wonder if it ever will be.

Can the Allies prevail before the end of the year? I think so, but it's going to be quite a challenge.

Erik should have a truly elite air force now. He's had incredibly long to accumulate his sexiest aircraft and to train an elite pilot corps. I think they'd do awful things to Death Star. But DS won't ever go near Japan. I think his window to configure such an attack from Formosa or coastal China has passed.

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Post #: 4392

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2019 2:16:01 PM

Canoerebel

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10/2/45 to 10/10/45

Western Asia: The Allies have been getting in position but mainly to hold the enemy in check. But the massive victorious army at Peiping is mostly coming this way, plus the equally massive victorious army from Formosa. The Japanese shouldn't have a prayer in China, though its size will mean time.

I won't make further posts, in all likelihood, as I want to stay under Eric's radar until the next big event takes place (possibly around October 20). A lot of time and effort has been poured into that op, and I'm looking forward to its implementation.

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Post #: 4393

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 3:44:13 AM

Canoerebel

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10/11/45 to 10/17/45

Chaochow, China: Allied landings trigger a Combat Report announcement that I've never seen before. Have you?

The Allies completed the conquest of Formosa about three days ago. As that was winding down, troops loaded and then took part in the invasion of coastal China. The hex is held by most of a mixed brigade that lacks guns, so probably brought in by air transport. A general attack to take place on the 18th.

On the same day, Russian paratroops will try for Foochow, which looks like it's held by sixteen post office matrons.

The Formosa army will be landing in coastal China; the big Western/Russian army that handled Peiping has already reached Nanking and will be moving west, to threaten either Shanghai/Hangchow or the interior. So I'll be concentrating here, on the ground, for the next few months. Chungking and Shanghai are the biggest prizes, but lots of other cities offer bases also.

Hiejo airfield in Korea will go to level 9 on the 18th, allowing full air activities. The Allied air forces there are immense. They can tackle middle or southern Japan, cooperating with the China-based air force and/or the Hokkaido-based air force.

Dave noticed the activity at Heijo and orchestrated a weird mixture of sweep and LRCAP that cost him a few more fighters than it did me. It's the first offensive activity he's done in six months or a year. He was just testing things, but the number of fighters he used was staggering. Lots of Shindens, too.

I'm going to give the air war a good try for a week or two. If it's clear a 1:1 proposition or worse (or much worse), I'll then desist and spend the waning days of the war working on China and any other bases within reach. Bihoro and Sapporo are under consideration, with troops prepping and ships staging.

The Allied lead is about 28k and growing steadily but it needs big bumps (like Chungking, eventually) to really make any headway.

Still no second atomic bomb. I find that really odd. That, alone, might provide 10k points. I'm worried that I won't get it.

Erik is suddenly flipping turns after being very quiet for a year. He's jazzed about something - probably the impending air war but perhaps other things too.

For now, I'll continue to post only occasionally. But if and when things break loose, which could be any moment, I'll resume.

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Post #: 4394

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 3:55:19 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

10/11/45 to 10/17/45

Chaochow, China: Allied landings trigger a Combat Report announcement that I've never seen before. Have you?

That is indeed odd. How do you have a coastal defense battery firing (even if only two shots) and yet have no activity on shore?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 9:24:57 AM

RangerJoe

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So Dave is helping Erik now?

Or are you just dazed and confused?

Those must be some very long range guns, firing from another hex . . .

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Post #: 4396

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 3:00:33 PM

Canoerebel

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 4:02:47 PM

RangerJoe

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Once I received a letter from a county worker. The date of the letter referenced a meeting that was supposedly the next day. I showed it to someone at the Nursing Home that I was at (for recovery purposes) and she did not catch it immediately. When I pointed it out to her, she laughed.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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Post #: 4398

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 4:54:24 PM

Canoerebel

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You'll have to point it out to me, too. I don't get it.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 5:03:54 PM

RangerJoe

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Suppose that the date of the letter was today, 19 September 2019, yet it referenced a meeting that happened on 20 September 2019 - a day after the letter was written. Was time travel in involved? If so, instead of using that time traveling device to write a letter, win the lottery!

edited to correct a date.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 9/19/2019 5:05:22 PM >

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/19/2019 5:13:50 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Suppose that the date of the letter was today, 19 September 2019, yet it referenced a meeting that happened on 20 September 2019 - a day after the letter was written. Was time travel in involved? If so, instead of using that time traveling device to write a letter, win the lottery!

edited to correct a date.

I interpreted your first post to mean it reference a future meeting. It was not clear that it was about one that had already happened.

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 3:26:39 AM

Canoerebel

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10/18/45

Tomorrow is a Big Day (if weather cooperates): The first massive air raid will take place vs. Nagoya. At night, hundreds of B-29s (and some B-24s) from Sikhalin Island and Hokkaido will target manpower, staggered from 11k to 17k. In the daytime, a bigger strike from the new level 9 airfield at Heijo, Korea. P-47Ns will sweep at 42k, P-51Ds will escort at 11k and 15k, and P-38Ls will escort at something - I fergit. The Superforts will target an engine factory. B-24s will be dived between a bunch of aircraft factories. B-17Gs will take the balance of the aircraft factories. Probably well over 2k aircraft involved, if weather cooperates.

Erik has about 150 fighters at Nagoya but hundreds more at nearby fields.

China: The Western Allied amphibious landing at Chaochow (near Swatow) is successful, as is the Russian paratroop assault at Foochow. Now the rest of the army on Formosa can be ferried over. Early on, some units will deal with lightly garrisoned bases (Swatow and Amoy). Ultimately, I think this army will first assist with Shanghai before moving inland. Or maybe not.

Allied lead just under 30k, some 55k from auto victory. That's a long way to go. It's possible, if the air war works at more than 2:1. If it doesn't, then the game will end at the end, in February '46, with the Allies ahead by perhaps 40k to 60k. I'm going to give the air war the real college try. I think, when weather cooperates, the Allies can overwhelm at single points. But when the weather divides raids from various bases, uh oh. That's why all the northern bombers are nighttime and all the southern bombers are coming from a single base. Coordination shouldn't be an issue.

Still no second atomic bomb.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 4:47:36 PM

Canoerebel

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10/19/45

I just got this turn and have only reviewed the written Combat Report. I wanted to post my early thoughts about the big Allied air raid, based upon what I know thus far - what I think, which may end up being tempered by an unkind reality.

Nagoya: Weather didn't interfere with any of the scheduled raids. That meant hundreds of nighttime 4EB (mostly B-29s, some B-24s) targeting Manpower. These faced pretty stiff night-fighter opposition but losses looked modest; the bombers set 80k fires, which is pretty good. Massed nighttime raids look promising.

The massed daytime raid from Hiejo faced very, very stout opposition from hundreds of fighters. The first big Allied groups were well escorted, meaning I lost a pretty high number of fighters but modest numbers of bombers. Then came unescorted dribs and drabs of bombers, which suffered pretty heavy losses. Then, eventually, the CAP was tuckered out and the last dozen or so of the dribs and drabs were unopposed. There were heavy strikes vs. an engine factory and various aircraft factories (most of these older generation but some hits on the Ki-83 factory, which produces a tough-nut).

Air losses are always much higher than the Combat Report suggests. I think I'm going to learn that B-24 losses were pretty stiff, B-17s modestly stiff and B-29s stiff but acceptable. I think the number of hits scored overall likely made the "operation" a success - IE, damage inflicted probably higher than that lost. By what ratio? I hope it's 3:1 or 4:1. If it's less than that, I'll have problems, because raids like this can be run only about twice per week, what with damaged, fatigue and weather sometimes delaying things.

Overall, this was a pretty successful strike, I think.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 6:34:16 PM

HansBolter

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Very curios to learn what percentage of the planes assigned the mission did not 'stray due to night'.

I spent over a year night bombing Japan from the Marianas and would never get more than about 30%-40% of assigned planes actually finding the target.

Have only recently, with only 6 weeks left in the game, staged my B29s forward Nagasaki, but now they are flying day missions as the Japanese air force has been defeated.

Have always wondered if the long range was contributing to the high percentage of straying aircraft.

< Message edited by HansBolter -- 9/20/2019 6:35:51 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 6:56:09 PM

Canoerebel

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A bunch of planes strayed - probably 30% or more. Just part o' the game. When they stray, they don't seem to accumulate any wear and tear, so at least there's that.

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Post #: 4405

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 7:19:00 PM

Canoerebel

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Oof. The math didn't work.

I lose 300 aircraft; Erik lost 130. All of his were fighters. 100 of mine were fighters and nearly 200 were 4EB. So in the air, I lost about 500 points (or a net of 370, given Erik's losses).

In return, the Allies scored about 600 strategic points (with perhaps a few dozen more to come from lingering fires). Overall, a ratio of about 730:500, or less than 1.5:1.

This was an easy target! The aircraft factories were mostly 2nd tier stuff, so Dave had fewer fighters posted here (100+) that at his big places, which have 400+ to 700+. I'm sure AA is likewise concentrated.

I lost 163 aircraft air-to-air, but flak and ops almost doubled that.

It's pretty clear that daytime strategic bombing won't work. The only efficient solution (nighttime bombing of his airfields to suppress fighters) is prohibited by house rule.

Nightime strat bombing is still a go but it's pretty inefficient. It can't be done at low altitude, because flak makes it a 1:1 proposition or worse. At higher altitudes it's just a grind - low returns on the investment. This turn 80k fires set resulting in 15 Heavy Industry hits and 24 Light Industry hits. No damage to Resources.

I can probably still configure a few daytime raids against targets where he's not expecting me, but it looks like Strat Bombing won't contribute materially to the end of the war (and still no 2nd A-bomb, either!).

Most likely, the war will now consist of the ground campaign in China, where there are a lot of points to be harvested for bases and destroying enemy units. The air force can provide an assist there. Then it will eventually move to southern Korea and probably Hokkaido.

Barring something odd, the war will end at the end - February 28, 1946. I think the Allies will by then have a lead of perhaps 40k or 50k or maybe 60k. But it won't end in AV, at least a 2:1 AV.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 7:39:29 PM

jwolf

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Rats, that is surely disappointing after all the work you did to set that up. Crazy question, asked out of ignorance: is it feasible for you to invade Japan itself? i know you took part of Hokkaido some time ago, but I am wondering about Kyushu, if that is at all possible.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 7:48:22 PM

Canoerebel

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It would be detrimental, from a points standpoint. I'd likely lose far more than I'd gain. First, Erik's elite air force would likely cut through DS CAP and do ugly things. An invasion would be against interlocking level 9 airfields used by elite pilots in Shindens, turbojets, Ki-83s, kamikazes, etc. Second, the Japanese army is so experienced and dug in that it can defeat any enemy attack, including 4:1 stuff, with heavy losses. There is a chance that the Allies would eventually get a toe-hold, creep forward, and cause more damage than they incur, but there's a better chance the opposite would happen.

The House Rule proved decisive. If I could punish his airfields that have 700 fighters at night, it would allow big daytime raids. It would still be a contest, given flak and leftover CAP and the chance that Allied raids wouldn't coordinate, so that elements would get chewed on. And if the raids were too destructive, intermediate limits could be set. We've played this far with the HR, so we might as well go the distance.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/20/2019 8:10:48 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 8:49:51 PM

BBfanboy

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I wonder if that second HI requires some sort of accumulation of HI points. What does your industry screen show, after deducting your daily usage for aircraft, ships, etc.

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Post #: 4409

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/20/2019 9:53:01 PM

Canoerebel

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Post #: 4410