RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/20/2019 5:00:19 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
This has been fun to read. I expect the bleeding is not done and it's hard to tell who has the advantage.

The pressure cooker will build and build in the DEI. It'll pop it's lid when Dave pulls the trigger or when most of the American carriers are back online. That'll be fun.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 1471

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/20/2019 5:01:18 PM

Canoerebel

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Yup, fun layers upon layers. :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I enjoy reading your account -- and similar accounts in other AARs -- of the constant struggle to keep or return ships to active duty, repairing both minor wear and tear as well as major damage from combat. It's another aspect to the war: we have the air war, the naval war, the ground war, the production war, the supply war, the intel war, and now the repair war. I am not familiar with the Japanese side at all, but I wonder who has the decisive edge in what we might call the "repair theater" of operations.

(in reply to jwolf)

Post #: 1472

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/20/2019 8:57:33 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

quote:

Triage of the ships damaged during all that fighting will take a bit longer than I had hoped.

I enjoy reading your account -- and similar accounts in other AARs -- of the constant struggle to keep or return ships to active duty, repairing both minor wear and tear as well as major damage from combat. It's another aspect to the war: we have the air war, the naval war, the ground war, the production war, the supply war, the intel war, and now the repair war. I am not familiar with the Japanese side at all, but I wonder who has the decisive edge in what we might call the "repair theater" of operations.

The Japanese start with the advantage of interior LOC to several shipyards. The Allies have a long trek to PH or Brisbane/Sydney from most of the naval fighting areas.
But it looks like the Allies get several big ARDs in this mod that make up for the shortage of shipyards, and once the Japanese LOC is pinched a bit so that subs can hunt their cripples, the advantage is really Allied.
OC, the biggest advantage is the superior Allied damage control on every vessel.

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(in reply to jwolf)

Post #: 1473

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/20/2019 9:56:24 PM

Canoerebel

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That's good analysis by BBfanboy. I agree that Japan starts with an advantage the narrows. In this case, it'll flip entirely once the Allied get Soerabaja's big yard.

I'm not sure Allied damage control works any more. My past three games, damage control has appeared vastly different than it did during the early years. BAck then, an Allied ship that was afloat had better than even chance to make it somewhere. Now it seems that Allied ships are more likely to sink than not. (That's a thought that's been lurking in the background for the past three years or so; not enough to form a theory, but perhaps a hypothesis; but I don't sandbox.)

(in reply to BBfanboy)

Post #: 1474

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/21/2019 2:40:29 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's good analysis by BBfanboy. I agree that Japan starts with an advantage the narrows. In this case, it'll flip entirely once the Allied get Soerabaja's big yard.

I'm not sure Allied damage control works any more. My past three games, damage control has appeared vastly different than it did during the early years. BAck then, an Allied ship that was afloat had better than even chance to make it somewhere. Now it seems that Allied ships are more likely to sink than not. (That's a thought that's been lurking in the background for the past three years or so; not enough to form a theory, but perhaps a hypothesis; but I don't sandbox.)

If you have been playing mods like DBB and its offshoots, it is possible that the modders just went into the editor and reduced the number of damage control points the Allied ships get, or their durability (although the latter would change the ship's VP value).

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1475

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 8:03:39 PM

Canoerebel

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6/2/44 to 6/6/44

Intel: The Allies finally take the lead! It aint much. It really isn't important at the moment, nor is it necessary to monitor this day by day, but it helps to keep it in mind and to check it occasionally to make sure I'm on track. "It's the denominator, stupid!" It should be much easier to achieve 2x AV starting from this point than it was in my game with John (56k denominator at the point I caught him, I think) or Erik (75k denominator at that point, I think).

DEI: Neither side has major forces "up front," at the moment. The Allies are successfully suppressing the major airfields and continue to send engineers forward. In particular, Waingapoe airfield will go to level 7 in a week or less. I want to make sure I have plenty of supply and aviation support available, because there may be a very nice target of opportunity.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 9/23/2019 8:04:13 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)

Post #: 1476

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 8:09:43 PM

Canoerebel

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6/7/44 to 6/9/44

DEI: Suddenly it seems enemy subs are flooding down towards Ambon. I think this marks the beginning of a campaign to reinforce there and/or to counterinvade Ternate.

Allied nighttime and daytime airstrikes on Waigeo and Sorong airfields several hundred aircraft on the ground over about four turns. Ambon is also closed. Dave can operate from Namlea, Kendari and Manado.

Ternate is held by 300+ AV but is low on supply. Several upgrading Essex-Class carriers need another six turns or so before they're ready for action at Darwin. CV Franklin and two CVLs are about a week out. At that point, DS may return to the high seas, though I'd rather wait another 30 days or so, when a number of the ships currently in triage will be ready.

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Post #: 1477

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 8:33:01 PM

jwolf

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Dumb question: do the Japanese every run low on subs, and if so, how many do you have to sink to get there?

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Post #: 1478

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 8:36:19 PM

Canoerebel

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Yeah, Japan runs low on subs, but it takes awhile. :)

I think Japan gets roughly 160. In this game, I think I've sunk about 70 or 75. That's a lot but there's a lot to go.

In my game with Erik, he used up a vast number of his subs during the cataclysmic (for both sides but especially for the IJN) Siege of Shikuka. He sent scores of subs in to lay mines and to lead the attack (they scored some hits on Allied capital ships including a BB or two) when he committed his bombardment TFs. Plus he employed them against DS, which had lots of ASW. He used them thoughtfully and en masse. When that campaign ended, he basically had no subs left. There are a few on the map, here and there, but after September 1944, I never again faced a sub threat (to date, October 1945).

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Post #: 1479

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 8:44:07 PM

Canoerebel

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6/10/44 to 6/13/44

The first half of June was fairly quite, on the surface, but there was a lot going on.

Singapore: Regular but well-spaced recon of Singapore for the past six months consistently showed a lot of ships disbanded there without CAP. It didn't matter, because no Allied bombers were within range. As Waingapoe airfield finally began to approach level 7 a week ago, I transferred three or four additional B-29 squadrons from India to Timor and stood down those plus the ones already there. On the 12th, the airfield went to level 7. It is 29 hexes from Singers. The question: Did Dave notice, so that he inserted CAP or pulled out the ships? If he inserted CAP, I might lose 50% of my Superforts, gutting them for a month or two. But Dave had a big op inbound to Ternate, and I had a feeling he had lost track of Singers and its potential vulnerability. I elected to roll the dice. If the weather cooperated....and it did.

Ternate: A major Japanese counterinvasion force lands. Disablements are very high, as is common with IJ invasions at this point. The Allies have a pretty good garrison but supply is about nil. I'm considering an all-out relief effort, but my carriers need one more day at Darwin to finish upgrades. Will they be in time?

Fortunately, Dave's major airfields are shut down (mostly). But he has lots of subs present.

I don't want to lose Ternate, but if it bought the time necessary to triage my fleet and get it up and running again, and if in return the Allies can hold on to Bima and one or more of the Celebes bases, that would be great. But I'm gonna contest Ternate, unless it falls before the relief force can make it there.

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Post #: 1480

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/23/2019 9:19:42 PM

Mark VII

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Well, that's a surface TF worth of ships that you will not have to worry about for a long time. Nice

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Post #: 1481

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 1:24:26 AM

Lovejoy

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Oomph...Nice Raid

I wonder how the Nagato's doing after 29 bomb hits and heavy fires.

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Post #: 1482

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 5:02:13 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

Oomph...Nice Raid

I wonder how the Nagato's doing after 29 bomb hits and heavy fires.

At sea that would be enough to overcome any damage control efforts, but with a high level port to help with firefighting she might just survive. The insurance company will probably refuse to cover it though, what with the negligence clause and all.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1483

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 12:56:34 PM

Gridley380

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lovejoy

Oomph...Nice Raid

I wonder how the Nagato's doing after 29 bomb hits and heavy fires.

At sea that would be enough to overcome any damage control efforts, but with a high level port to help with firefighting she might just survive. The insurance company will probably refuse to cover it though, what with the negligence clause and all.

Channeling a different AAR there, I think. :-)

A very nice damage ratio - lots of ship damage for one damaged B29. Sad not to see more sinkings, but maybe you'll get lucky on the DC rolls and some of them will burn despite the port effect.

Edit to add: Nagato won't sink. She proved IRL even an A-bomb couldn't sink her! ;-)

< Message edited by Gridley380 -- 9/24/2019 1:00:05 PM >

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Post #: 1484

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 1:30:45 PM

jwolf

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Wow that was a great raid on Singapore! Kudos to the Allied Supreme Commander for making the right call. And I would love to hear BBfanboy's conversation with the insurance agent.

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Post #: 1485

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 2:01:57 PM

JohnDillworth

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Those damaged CA's, CL's and DD's are going to really take the teeth out of any surface threat at a time when they will be most needed. Good shooting

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Post #: 1486

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 4:08:01 PM

Canoerebel

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It's likely that was part of his Bay of Bengal defense force. Prior to the raid, I knew there were combat ships there and hoped there might be some small carriers.

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Post #: 1487

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 4:15:16 PM

Canoerebel

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6/14/44 and 6/15/44

Singapore: Figuring Dave would send fighters to Singers (he did - roughly 75 the next turn), I set the B-29s to nighttime. They didn't encounter fighters and scored a few more hits on a couple of CAs and DDs. Sinking sounds were heard, I think for a hard-hit DD. The next two turns, the Superforts rested (a rare instance of forced moderation).

DEI: On the 14th, CV Franklin and two CVLs (the latter had been damaged in the Battle of Timor Sea and went to Pearl for repairs) neared Darwin. Dave's ships continued landing troops at Ternate, so I ordered DS & The Herd to sortie. The armada moved out on the 15th, making six hexes. They're now about 17 hexes shy of Ternate.

Dave's army is beat up by landing and hasn't tried an attack. If I can get supply ashore, that would probably be enough to secure the base. But reinforcements are aboard ship, too. There are also TFs with troops for other bases, like friendly Boela and unfriendly Namlea. And over at Koepang, troop ships are loading for possibly forays to Bima, Denpassar and even Celebes (just in case things go remarkably well).

While I have to allow and assume that Dave is fully apprised of where my ships are and their intentions, it seems like there's at least one other possibility. For some reason, he subs flooded the area near Ambon, as though he expected any relief effort to come solely from Koepang. Perhaps he's unaware DS was at Darwin? None of the TFs were picked up by NavSearch today. If that continues tomorrow (unlikely) there may be a shot at an ambush at Ternate (his carriers are there) the day after.

I wanted to wait longer to seek battle, but a battle should be worthwhile if, in so doing, Ternate is saved. I had hoped to wait 30 days for some of the triage carriers to return, but Dave moved too soon. Yet it's great that Franklin and the CVLs arrived just as the Essex Class carriers finished upgrading.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 4:25:32 PM

Squamry

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Are there any bases that C-87s could resupply Ternate from, Dobo or Taberfane perhaps? the little they can transfer may make a difference.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 4:28:11 PM

Canoerebel

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Air transport of supply is underway but enemy CAP is interdicting. Sub supply is also underway. But they really aren't going to make a difference. To hold the base for more than a couple of days, the supply ships have to make it. So an all-out battle for Ternate make be developing.

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Post #: 1490

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 5:55:17 PM

Gridley380

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Ternate: the Guadalcanal of the DEI. :-)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 6:02:34 PM

Canoerebel

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Yeah, that's apt. The fleet dropped off a bunch of soldiers without enough supply, barbed wire, heavy guns, etc. Then the fleet vamoosed, leaving the army to its fate.

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Post #: 1492

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 7:40:06 PM

Gridley380

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, that's apt. The fleet dropped off a bunch of soldiers without enough supply, barbed wire, heavy guns, etc. Then the fleet vamoosed, leaving the army to its fate.

So does that make you Fletcher? ;-)

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1493

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 7:50:43 PM

Canoerebel

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Yeah. Only, my carriers really did get attacked. :)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 8:35:31 PM

USSAmerica

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Just finished catching up after about 3 weeks away from being able to read AAR's. Very exciting times and a very fun read, Dan!

P.S. You're crushing his subs!

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/24/2019 10:37:18 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, Mike. It's good to have you back. Stay tuned, as more sub warfare appears imminent.

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Post #: 1496

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/25/2019 2:27:46 AM

Canoerebel

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DS will play aggressively tomorrow, entering tight waters to close on Ternate. There are lots of escorting ASW and DD TFs to help with security against subs and MTBs. One good USN DD TF will use flank speed to patrol Ternate, where KB is currently posted.

I wonder if Dave is aware that fleet carriers in base hexes have flight ops halved? He got caught once before, with his carriers at Koepang.

I think he'll pull his carriers and combat ships back. There is, of course, the chance of a chance 8-hex strike.

The aggressive moves by the Allies are to get into a position to relieve Ternate. If things go well tomorrow, that'll take place the day after. If Dave pulls back, it should work. If he stays, there should be a big carrier battle. His big LBA bases have been shut down, except Manado and Kendari. The B-29s are ordered to hit Manado tonight, some 2EB will strike Kendari. Waigeo, Sorong and Ambon are completely shut down.

Allied fighters will sweep Ternate. If KB remains there, that might help a bit.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1497

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/25/2019 3:08:01 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

DS will play aggressively tomorrow, entering tight waters to close on Ternate. There are lots of escorting ASW and DD TFs to help with security against subs and MTBs. One good USN DD TF will use flank speed to patrol Ternate, where KB is currently posted.

I wonder if Dave is aware that fleet carriers in base hexes have flight ops halved? He got caught once before, with his carriers at Koepang.

I think he'll pull his carriers and combat ships back. There is, of course, the chance of a chance 8-hex strike.

The aggressive moves by the Allies are to get into a position to relieve Ternate. If things go well tomorrow, that'll take place the day after. If Dave pulls back, it should work. If he stays, there should be a big carrier battle. His big LBA bases have been shut down, except Manado and Kendari. The B-29s are ordered to hit Manado tonight, some 2EB will strike Kendari. Waigeo, Sorong and Ambon are completely shut down.

Allied fighters will sweep Ternate. If KB remains there, that might help a bit.

Love the idea of DDs going into Ternate to spook KB. I wonder if anyone ever had KB carriers collide with each other during the panic?

Your comment about KB being in a base hex reminds me of your unintended foray with DS into Kendari hex- I bet that had him wondering ...

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_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1498

RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/25/2019 11:31:57 AM

Canoerebel

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6/17/44

DS has been ordered to steam NW, from east of Boela to south of Ternate. It will be moving into confined waters with lots of enemy subs vectoring in from one side, MTBs from the other, and KB to the front. You can imagine the level of excitement when I find the new turn in the inbox. And so it begins.

Battle of Ternate: The night opens with a big USN DD TF encountering and dispatching an enemy sub. The position of the battle confirms that DS is underway, beginning to move NW.

Then, the USN DD TF moving at flank speed arrives at Ternate to do battle. KB was here yesterday. Is it here tonight? The USN is victor in this sharp clash.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 9/25/2019 11:34:52 AM

Canoerebel

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6/17/44

Battle of Ternate: A DE TF tangles with a small enemy DD TF. I have a lot of DE/SC/PF TFs, some embedded with DS and some moving independently, some configured for ASW and some for combat (mainly to deal with MTB threat).

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