RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 12:36:22 PM

RangerJoe

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I would consider Samarinda then Balikpappan before Kendari and Ambon. The first two have oil and open up Tarakan, Brunei, and Miri to bombing by 2E bombers as well as airstrikes against tankers. Kendari and Ambon produce nothing but do make good bases but Balikpappan can get a level 9 airfield.

If you can put the squeeze on oil and thus fuel, the fuel will have to be rationed much more between Japanese fleet operations and Heavy Industry.

Taking Borneo then opens up the coast of Indo-China for airborne and amphibious assault. What better way to help the Chinese?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 1:17:00 PM

Canoerebel

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No you wouldn't. At least, you wouldn't if you had all the information at your hand to make the decision.

Troops are prepping for Samarinda but need some time before they're ready to go.

But for Kendari, the Allies can land two 100% prepped divisions at friendly Kolaka, to march across the island to the target. No problem there.

And for Ambon, there's already an Allied army ashore. I want to finish that base off soon, so that it doesn't linger. The reinforcing units are 100% prepped.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 2:43:48 PM

USSAmerica

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Dan, if Palembang is too strong to take in the near term you mentioned bombing the oil. With the surrounding bases you have already taken, is Dave actually getting any oil/fuel out of Palembang? Why not just shut down any remaining shipping into Palembang by air until you are ready to roll over it on the ground? You might also sink some loaded troop transports. You can save your 4EB's to hit oil that Dave can still somewhat safely ship out, like Tarakan and Miri.

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"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 2:44:30 PM

USSAmerica

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BTW, brilliantly planned, organized, and executed campaign through the DEI! Kudos!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 3:23:15 PM

Canoerebel

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Hey, Mike.

Dave is still trying to use Palembang and I've just begun countermeasures. Allied DDs sank a handful of TKs on the 19th. The day before, SBDs escorted by fighters got chewed up by good CAP. My sweeps have been fairly ineffective, so I think he has really good pilots there. I can change the equation by using LBA at night, but I'd like to rest the B-29s for awhile, as they've been used and abused over the past few weeks.

Mouseover + Recon indicates Dave is withdrawing the garrison - now at 39k. I thought he might, as he might have a case of PTSD from losing a 200k army on Java.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 5:54:04 PM

RangerJoe

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I should have put in a caveat, all other things being equal. Since they are not equal, I can understand your planning to keep the enemy away from your supply lines.

How about night naval attacks with twin engine attack bombers for Palembang? Or is that a No Go area due to HRs and pilot training (or the lack thereof!)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/16/2019 6:41:18 PM

Canoerebel

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No house rules in effect, so that's not an issue. I like night bombing of ports and airfields but have no luck set to naval strike. But I don't have pilots training for Low N skill, so that may be the issue.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 2:29:51 AM

CaptBeefheart

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Well done. How much fuel did you bag at Soerabaja?

Cheers,
CB

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 3:15:51 PM

Canoerebel

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See following post. :)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 3:26:41 PM

Canoerebel

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8/17/44 to 8/24/44

Battle of Java: Batavia fell more quickly than expected and enemy resistance at Soerabaja was wiped out sooner than I'd figured. So the Allies are rolling in from both ends of Java. The final enemy redoubt, Djoakjarta, shows serious signs of rot. This campaign should conclude within the week.

This Decisive Campaign: Dave had a good mobile reserve, mainly at Singapore. When the Allied threat became serious, he moved quickly to reinforce. He brought in a lot of good units, and ordinarily could've drawn things out for a long time. But he had no real way of knowing a massive Allied army was coming from Ceylon. Within just a week, the campaign went from a taunt contest to decide control of the railroad to a meeting engagement in which one side had seemingly unlimited numbers pouring in. The Allies ended up with more than 9,500 AV. Japan never really had a chance, after those first few days.

Java: The 65-level shipyard at Soerabaja will be key to Allied ops over coming months, at least until (eventually) the Allies take Manila, Singapore and/or Hong Kong. Actually, I don't think Singers will play a big role, because by the time it's taken, the bulk of the Allied forces should be much deeper in enemy territory. Fuel and supplies can come to Java from Capetown, Perth and Colombo, with little risk and excellent efficiency. The island makes a great staging base and the three big ports should facilitate efficient loading for the major amphibious ops that will take place over the next four months or so. And local industry will generate some fuel and supplies. Hey, what's not to like?

Leave Now and Never Come Back: I could probably - right now, this very minute - mount a shoestring, thrown together massive invasion that could strike deep, beyond where Dave is expecting and prepared. It would likely succeed. Nemo would do exactly that. Others would too. On the flip side, this is a good time to re-organize, prep, gather, and upgrade the CVEs and other ships. I'm weighing both options and haven't made a final decision. I'm leaning towards the second, but circumstances may change.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 3:40:29 PM

Canoerebel

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For the past few weeks, Dave has been withdrawing his big army from Burma. He'll leave some troops to hold the bases, but at some point the Allies will move here in some strength.

I had no units in Burma, but it was probably the decisive theater of the war. It had Dave's complete attention. The Allies had a failed invasion there in the early war, and then a big carrier battle in mid-42 stopped a second. With no Allied units there but a massed force just sitting...sitting...sitting on Ceylon, Dave knew I would come sooner or later. So he built and built and built....and waited and waited and waited.

Then, a month ago, a massed invasion force finally moved out of Ceylon towards Port Blair. En route, I got cold feet, pulled the amphibious TFs back, and let the carriers come forward (CAP did a number on some Japanese air raids).

It was then that I decided to divert the entire Ceylon forces to Java. The amphibs had a head start, and eventually the carriers and combat TFs caught up. But all the maneuvering was "behind a curtain," so Dave wasn't aware. As far as he could tell, I simply retired to Ceylon, preparatory to coming again.

So the Allies had the advantage of mobility. My sea and land forces were already at sea and already moving towards Java, even as his massive army was stuck off in that corner, unable to move by land, able to move by sea but not nearly as quickly as the Allies.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 4:07:58 PM

BBfanboy

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I agree with your assessment that now is the time to strengthen your navy and prep for next steps. His navy and AF is still too strong to go deep and leave long vulnerable flanks. You have three avenues of attack that allow for more secure LOCs:

Sumatra-Malaya; this isolates or takes Singapore and gets air power closer to Indo-China, but the narrow corridor is easy for defence against your movement. Your air power could get some strategic bombing of Saigon and Bangkok but you don't get any points of that. It seems strategically unimportant if you already have Singers neutralized (which you can do from Palembang).

Celebes-Borneo-Philippines; lots of avenues to use tactically and potential to shut down SRA access totally when you get to northern Luzon. Good springboard to threaten China, Pescadores, Formosa, the Ryukyus and the small islands around western Japan. His heavy LCU losses on Java make this route vulnerable.

Moluccas-Western NG-Babeldaob-Saipan-Bonins; a good route for naval operations but strategically not great for staging large forces to go beyond Chichi-Jima. As you have found in your other game, long distance use of B-29s without escort is too expensive to mount a full strat bombing campaign.

So my choice would to make the Philippine advance the main one with enough nibbling at the other two routes to distract and tie down his defences. Of course you can also change everything to the NORPAC route but that is also easier for the Japanese to defend against (in a time delay/speedbumps sense).

About the "CVs" seen in mouseover at Tarakan - tankers are often reported as CVs or CVEs when DL is fairly low. That seems more likely for this situation - he is trying to grab all the oil and fuel he can before you close down all the shipping from his oil ports.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 5:33:48 PM

Canoerebel

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What conclusions do you draw when you have good detection (9/10) and mouseover indicates CVs but no aircraft? That's my dilemma.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 5:44:25 PM

BillBrown

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I need to correct my original post. According to the manual, a recon flight over a base can increase the DL of any unit( but not minefields) in the hex.

I am sorry about providing incorrect information.

< Message edited by BillBrown -- 10/17/2019 11:00:02 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 5:44:40 PM

jwolf

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Carrier air has been shifted to the ground airfield? But if so, for what purpose?

Edit: Bill Brown's post makes a lot more sense. Disregard this.

< Message edited by jwolf -- 10/17/2019 5:45:31 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 5:53:18 PM

Canoerebel

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Oddly, there are no fighters at the airfield and only about 50 bombers.

I considered sending DS at flank speed, but I don't have a strong enough hunch to act on the intel. IE, it isn't actionable yet.

But I'm watching.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 5:57:40 PM

USSAmerica

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You have troops moved as close as 1 hex from Palembang. If you have any troops at all in the Palembang hex, oil (or resources if they were to be present) will stop being generated for as long as the hex is contested. The refinery will continue to operate until any oil surplus is refined. Instead of bombing the oil production, consider moving a ground force into the hex to contest it and shut down the oil production completely. You don't yet need enough troops there to capture the base, just enough to defend themselves and prevent Dave from kicking them out of the hex. One small benefit of this approach is that there is still some oil production and refining capacity available for you to use once you capture the base. I know you are able to ship in an ocean of fuel as needed, but having a local source is also very, very handy.

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"They need more rum punch" - Me

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/17/2019 7:04:11 PM

Canoerebel

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That's a good tip, Mike. I had some uncertainty about whether the "unit present stops enemy production" doctrine, so it helps hearing it again from you. I'd picked up a vibe, somewhere on the Forum or in my dreams or nightmares, that this might no longer be the case or might never have been.

Dave isn't making any effort to defend Palembang and Balikpapan from nighttime raids vs. his oil, but he did react vigorously when the B-29s showed up over Miri. I think this means he's prepared to give up the former two but not the latter. That's helpful intel and might be good reason to shut down ops vs. the former two in order to later harvest those resources for myself, as you suggest.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 1:18:57 AM

Capt. Harlock

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To the best of my recollection, I've never been in a game before when the Japanese economy collapsed. Partly (entirely?) that may have been due, in past games, to my proclivity for invading Hokkaido or China while bypassing the DEI until late. There may have been very early games when Miller and John III had some issues, but that was long ago and not significant, as best I recall. It would be fun to see what happens if an when Japan runs out of fuel or supply.

If you want an idea of the result, have a look at LST's game:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3688241&mpage=10&key=

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 4:24:42 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To the best of my recollection, I've never been in a game before when the Japanese economy collapsed. Partly (entirely?) that may have been due, in past games, to my proclivity for invading Hokkaido or China while bypassing the DEI until late. There may have been very early games when Miller and John III had some issues, but that was long ago and not significant, as best I recall. It would be fun to see what happens if an when Japan runs out of fuel or supply.

If you want an idea of the result, have a look at LST's game:
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3688241&mpage=10&key=

We need to add "NO IDAHO NEW YORKER!" to the AAR link!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 4:38:26 PM

Canoerebel

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Good point, BBfanboy.

Thanks, Capt. Harlock. I read through the AAR. It looks like LST's economy is in dire straights but I didn't dig deep enough, or read far enough back, to know exactly why. He's losing the DEI oil by mid-44, but he was already short on supply, etc. in the Home Islands. Where did he originally go off the tracks?

Interesting, too, to note that Idaho New Yorker is several months ahead of me covering much of the same territory. Will my long term strategy prove effective? I'm interested in seeing if "It's all about the denominator, stupid!" - and how I've gone about pursuing that - is really as effective as I think it is.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 4:57:47 PM

Canoerebel

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8/25/44 to 8/29/44

DEI: While the Allies mop up remaining resistance on Java, the units are prepping for seven primary targets, hither and yon, and repositioning to primary points of embarkation. And the merchantmen are busy bringing mostly support units forward to Java from Koepang and Darwin. This will take a bit of time, so it makes sense to use it to let the CVEs upgrade (21-day process) and to finish what I'm doing at Ambon, Kendari and Makassar.

SigInt and other info is giving me a good idea where Dave is planning to make his next stands/MLRs/strongpoints. The information is helpful, as it tells me which buttons to push to perhaps feed his thinking, while the Allies strongly consider options. I think the next step may be non-linear.

Nearly all the triage carriers have returned to the fleet - all but CV Intrepid, CVL Monterey and a CVE. DS is very strong now, with excellent pilots and air frames. The pools are deep.

Probably the limiting factor right now is fuel and supply. Java has a lot and more is coming, but whether it has enough to fully fund a deep, non-linear campaign that might last months is another question. I need to take an inventory and consider those things carefully.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 5:27:25 PM

BBfanboy

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I think Dave has decided that the tankers are useless once all his SRA oil centers are lost, so he had little to lose by sending them to dangerous waters to try and grab a last load of oil.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 7:50:01 PM

Canoerebel

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8/30/44

DEI: A pretty quiet turn, focusing mainly on the reinforcing landing at Ambon and the mop-up of the once-stout, now-decaying enemy army at Djokjarta.

One thing caught my eye. Long-term recon of Kendari at high levels (9/10, etc.) consistently showed an enemy garrison of about 1k. I sent a scout detachment of infantry to investigate. They arrive and find 20k troops, including a mixed brigade and naval guard unit. These didn't just arrive. I've never seen such a complete failure of recon and high detection before. In fact, I wouldn't believe it possible had I not seen it myself. Prolonged 9/10 detection will ALWAYS give accurate results. Anyhow, I have two divisions 100% prepped for Kendari. DS will escort one or both to Kolaka, for the overland trip to Kendari.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/18/2019 9:03:19 PM

JohnDillworth

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That is the 2nd strange detection anomaly you have had. You also had spotted a bunch of CV's in port and few aircraft to go with them. As always, best to trust, but verify, before you make any major moves

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 10/18/2019 9:07:05 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/19/2019 5:25:58 PM

Canoerebel

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8/31/44 to 9/2/44

Battle of Java: Stout enemy army at Djokjakarta is collapsing. Allied units are reposition, some to prep and a few to move to Sumatra for the Palembang/Djambi campaign.

Ceram: Allies landed reinforcements at Ambon without incident. This is a tough enemy fortress, but a probing deliberate attack at poor odds did considerably higher damage to the enemy. Properly managed, the Allied army should take this base within a month

Namlea: Transports are loading a US division now 100% prepped for Singapore.

Celebes: Makassar fell to 33rd Div. detachment that landed at Watampone months ago. It's being pulled off to mate with it's main body at Soerabaja. Two divisions 100% prepped for Kendari are coming ashore at Kolaka to march overland. I think that'll be enough to handle the campaign unless Dave reinforces. (He's never really reinforced forward before - showing a reluctance to reinforce what appears to be an ultimate defeat; but he sometimes does reinforce/contest my incursions on the borderline area - as at Morotai and Ternate awhile back).

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/21/2019 3:58:48 PM

ADB_Iceman

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Good point, BBfanboy.

Thanks, Capt. Harlock. I read through the AAR. It looks like LST's economy is in dire straights but I didn't dig deep enough, or read far enough back, to know exactly why. He's losing the DEI oil by mid-44, but he was already short on supply, etc. in the Home Islands. Where did he originally go off the tracks?

Interesting, too, to note that Idaho New Yorker is several months ahead of me covering much of the same territory. Will my long term strategy prove effective? I'm interested in seeing if "It's all about the denominator, stupid!" - and how I've gone about pursuing that - is really as effective as I think it is.

Just a thought LST was playing DBB scenario "C". That means that the DEI was not producing any supply as an example. I am not sure about spare fuel to start the game. This is a scenario #2 -- stock so the DEI is producing 10% supply from refineries plus 4.1M extra fuel to start the game? So I am not sure the IJ economy is ready to collapse.

I have seen rebuilding units on the main island cause chaos. Each element takes supply to transfer from the pool to the unit and too many units rebuilding at once can suck supply dry. I think this is relevant as the Allies have killed a few units off ...

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/21/2019 6:19:54 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks for the information. You know a lot more about these things than I do.

Japanese supply and production are pretty mysterious to me. I know, generally, that Japan can run out of (or run itself out of) fuel, supply, resources, oil, etc. with dire consequences. I know this can happen early or later or never, depending on myriad circumstances. I do not know how to guesstimate an opponent's position in my games.

Dave had some issues early (Magwe's oil destroyed from start, he never got the bulk of China's good stuff; etc.), counterbalanced by the fact that he didn't seem to expend much in expanding or in running amock.

He has lost a bunch of divisions on Java and New Guinea, which will have some impact.

I don't think Dave would be in crisis at the moment, since most of the bad things are only just now happening. I do think he might have problems at some future point, probably deep into 1945. I won't be holding my breath. Mostly, I'll have to win the game by taking bases and destroying things.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/21/2019 7:33:18 PM

Canoerebel

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9/3/44 to 9/9/44

DEI: It's a weird twilit existence - the carriers are upgrading at Soerabja, depriving me of mobility for a season. It's a weird feeling - after the breakneck campaign from Lunga to Batavai, it's hard to slow down.

While the carriers (and a score of other combat ships) upgrade, lots of logistical, preparatory and mop-up activity taking place. With regard to the latter, the IJ army at Djokajkarta is dying rapidly; the army at Ambon is declining at a proper rate, and two Allied divisions are marching towards the enemy garrison at Kendari. The forces that will lay siege against Palembang are maneuvering to get into position. By the time the carriers are ready to go, Java and Ambon should be complete and the situations at Kendari and Palembang should be "in hand."

I'm toying with two primary plans for DS & The Herd when the upgrades are complete. One is linear and the other isn't; both have merit.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/21/2019 8:32:51 PM

jwolf

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Those are a lot of valuable eggs in Soerabaja's basket. I presume it is secure from enemy air or naval attack.

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