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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 4:55:03 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Re: Obvert's thoughts, the long series of carrier engagements have been pretty lopsided in favor of the Allies, at least in terms of plane/pilot losses. I think Allied pilot quality is now ahead of Japan's. Some of the veteran groups have experience in the 80s with skills commensurate or higher.

I don't know if that's such a big thing long term, but that remains to be seen. In previous games, I think Japan maintained a marked pilot-quality advantage deep, so this is new territory for me.

And how will kamikazes jiggle the puzzle I'm trying to piece together? I dunno.


I was surprised his small kami strike go through your big blue blanket!! Mine surely don't.

If he's losing pilots at the rate we're seeing here, yeah, it could make a difference, but your comment on your pilot quality is even more telling. It's about the pilot experience differential more than what is available to Japan. If yours keep surviving and getting better, the quality gap will keep growing in your favour.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 1801
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 4:56:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't think oil will be an issue for me. I've never had a game before in which I had local production - I've always relied on TKs. In this game, I have more TKs than usual (only a few have sunk) and I have ample local production from Java and Palembang. As for Tarakan, Miri and Brunei, I have no plans to invade. It's much more efficient to simply eliminate their oil production than to have SBDs or whatever sitting at nearby airfields to prevent enemy shipping from loading oil. That's too open to mischance - the SBDs get chewed up by enemy CAP or something gets misclicked or weather does something uncooperative or whatever. To the extent possible, I'd prefer to leave nothing troublesome in the rear when the next op moves deeper.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1802
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 5:41:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/10/44 and 10/11/44

Triage: All damaged ships made it to Soerabaja. Now comes the difficult task of prioritizing - how many carriers can I do without? Do ground troops need further prep time? When is the right time to go?

I'm down five CVEs (three sunk), two USN CVs (damaged) and one RN CV (damaged).

Offsetting that are a reinforcing USN CV and three CVEs.

If the repair estimate projections are accurate, Wasp, Enterprise, Illustrious and BB Washington need about two weeks. Does it make sense to wait? Should I go now? Is there anything to be accomplished "in between"?

I'll know more tomorrow, as the repair estimates will likely change a bit, as there were some changes to priorites and some changes between Shipyard and Pierside and Ready.

I'm probably leaning towards "wait," but I'll decide for sure tomorrow.




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Post #: 1803
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 5:44:06 PM   
adarbrauner

 

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline 		This time, without oil and less resources too for Japan, it will be a very different game. Soon lack of oil shall paralyze the fleet. Then part of the commercial fleet, then part of the industry, then for lack of supply any meaningful offensive air operations

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1804
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 6:42:24 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Re: Obvert's thoughts, the long series of carrier engagements have been pretty lopsided in favor of the Allies, at least in terms of plane/pilot losses. I think Allied pilot quality is now ahead of Japan's. Some of the veteran groups have experience in the 80s with skills commensurate or higher.

I don't know if that's such a big thing long term, but that remains to be seen. In previous games, I think Japan maintained a marked pilot-quality advantage deep, so this is new territory for me.

And how will kamikazes jiggle the puzzle I'm trying to piece together? I dunno.


I was surprised his small kami strike go through your big blue blanket!! Mine surely don't.

If he's losing pilots at the rate we're seeing here, yeah, it could make a difference, but your comment on your pilot quality is even more telling. It's about the pilot experience differential more than what is available to Japan. If yours keep surviving and getting better, the quality gap will keep growing in your favour.




In February '46 I have the Tokyo/Yokohama air complex mostly suppressed. Every so often I rest my bombers for 3-5 days and the fields come back to life sending out paltry sorties of 3-5 planes. They inevitably get through my CAP and several more ships limp into port with kamikaze hits.

There is no stopping the leakers, even when a few leakers are all that fly.


_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1805
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/29/2019 7:44:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/12/44

DEI: Decision made. While waiting for the damaged carriers to repair, the balance of the fleet will escort transports to land at Allied-held Singkawang and then proceed to a "linear" enemy base. There are two key reasons underlying the decision that I won't go into. :)

Burma: In the past few weeks, Dave has completely withdrawn from upper Burma. He has a modest garrison of 30k at Rangoon and smaller detachments at Pegu and Moulmein. This resulted from the threat to his LOC at Singapore - he can't pull out troops by sea any more. The Allies have taken most of the cities above Rangoon. For now, that'll be enough.

CV Intrepid: She took four torpedoes near Ceram a few months back, surprisingly could still make 12 knots, and fled to the SE. She eventually made Townsville, where she fixed the SYS damage and an ARD handled moderate FLT damage. She's now at Sydney to handle modest ENG damage. She'll be ready to go in two weeks.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 1806
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 11:27:19 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/13/44 to 10/15/44

Burma: A sizeable contingent of 7th Aussie Div. was cut off during the failed Allied invasion of Burma in early 1942. Part of 9th Div. was cut off but made it out. This cadre basically sat in the jungle for 2.5 years, tying down a few enemy units that hemmed them in. With the recent enemy withdrawal from upper Burma, the Aussie's emerged and took a base. Eventually they'll rejoin their parent unit to take part in the war in a more meaningful way.

Speaking of which, BB Pennyslvania is still repairing Pearl damage at Alameda. She arrived there a few months ago after sitting at Pearl, the lowest priority while other ships repaired. She'll be ready to join the war before the end of the year.




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Post #: 1807
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 11:38:38 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/13/44 to 10/15/44

DEI/South China Sea: A new vortex may be developing.

Allied plan is three parts: (1) provide major support to Singkawang to build this base large, creating a strongpoint to aid in future ops; (2) seek battle with KB on favorable terms, if possible; and (3) if KB doesn't accept battle, move on another important linear target that I shall not yet name.




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Post #: 1808
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 12:38:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My opponent sent an email that something apparently important happened this turn, but he forgot to send the Combat Report. So I'm left hanging, and I must leave you hanging. I'll be out of town today and most of tomorrow. Back tomorrow night. Y'all have a good middle of the week. (I'll post an update if Dave happens to send the Combat Report in the next 15 minutes or so.)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1809
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 12:55:37 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Arrgh! That's dirty pool!

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1810
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 12:58:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Dave sent the Combat Report. A quick summary, as we are weighing anchor and steaming to sea (Kentucky).

He closed and attacked with everything he had. I planned to convert to offense and go hunting the following day, but I kept the defensive configuration.

Big air-sea battle in and around Singkawang. KB launched two alpha strikes that scored some hits, including two bombs on CV Ticonderoga and two TTs on BB Indiana. But it was too little at too great a cost. I think KB air is decimated.

Some enemy strikes (probably mostly LBA) struck various transport TFs at and near Singkawang, doing some damage, including sinking an AKE and destroying some squads. But the damage is modest in comparison to KB's plight, I believe.

I think Dave will pull KB back post-haste. That should leave me in a position to proceed with the next linear objective. It's relatively remote from big enemy airfields and thus should be very exposed without a toothsome KB.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1811
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 3:01:37 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		Linear offensive, eh? (I'm Canadian so I can say that.) I think it is an island north of Sinkawang. Here's a clue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_bJZGbSI1s

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1812
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 5:32:39 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		I believe that is you 3rd "Great Marianas Turkey" shoot this month. Kind of like the hundred year floods we seem to be getting every 10 years. If you are doing a Muhammad Ali "rope a dope" I suspect George Foreman has about punched himself out. Might be time to get off the ropes and throw a few jabs and hooks. Perhaps another "Thriller off the Coast of Manila"? I'm out of puns

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1813
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 10/30/2019 10:17:57 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I believe that is you 3rd "Great Marianas Turkey" shoot this month. Kind of like the hundred year floods we seem to be getting every 10 years. If you are doing a Muhammad Ali "rope a dope" I suspect George Foreman has about punched himself out. Might be time to get off the ropes and throw a few jabs and hooks. Perhaps another "Thriller off the Coast of Manila"? I'm out of puns

You missed "Rumble in the Jumble" of Philippine Islands ...
Float like my ships won't die,
Sing "Banjo on my Knee!"




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_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1814
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 9:07:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It's been a crazy couple of days. Wednesday and Thursday, we moved my Mom here from Kentucky in the midst of the flooding rains followed by crazy wind and cold. It went well but it was a frantic and busy time. Today was devoted to tons of paperwork getting her established here. It also included a "little job" of assembling a special commode seat. I estimated it would take 30 minutes. It took about 2.5 hours including a trip to Home Depot. I was reduced to weeping over my utter incompetence as a son and handyman. I felt like I'd just let a big IJN CA/DD force get amongst a massive and negligently unprotected amphibious TF. Awful.

Things were so busy that I didn't realize I didn't know the World Series was over and that there was a winner until I logged onto the Forum this morning. That's how I learned that Washington won.

It's been a very busy month follow my stepdad's death. Lots of wheels in motion to get Mom here. As a result, game time has been a little more limited. In my game with Erik, I simply gave up watching the 001. The massive nighttime bombing raids (3 B-29s, 6 B-29s, 2 B-29s, etc, etc etc) takes too long. In this game, I've continued to run the 001 but I've fallen way off in posting to the AAR. That's a shame given all that's going on but just one of those times.

Things should now return to normal.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1815
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 9:42:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/44

Now I'm going to step back and re-create these turns, to the extent I can and have sufficient patience. I'll begin by saying that my quick summary above proved to be accurate, as did JohnDillworth's "Marianas Turkey Shoot Comment."

DS & The Herd were supposed to loiter, just short of Singkawang, for one day, configured defensively while key reinforcements landed at the base (so that it could handle fighters) and to see what KB did. For reasons I don't understand, DS & Most of the Herd steamed past Singkawang and moved north, towards Miri (I misclicked or forgot to ciick). KB had closed and a full out-air assault took place, including major enemy LBA elements from Singers and Jorhore, plus Allied LBA fighters.

The Japanese strike aircraft managed some penetration against DS and against shipping at and near Singkawang. The cost to Japan was far too heavy to justify the damage done to Allied shipping.

Here's the Intel screen with air losses for the turn:




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1816
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 9:45:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/44

Battle of Singkawang: KB suffers devastating air losses.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1817
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 9:50:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/44

Battle of Singkawang: KB aircraft inflicted some damage on DS but it was too little. BB Indiana may be out for the war, with that level of engine damage and with Soerabaja yards committed to serving carriers, but otherwise nothing major here.

Some of the LBA strikes scored against merchant shipping and destroyed some squads. These mostly involved secondary TFs carrying engineers and base forces. I'll post a screenie of Allied ships sunk to give an idea.





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Post #: 1818
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 9:54:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/44

Battle of Singkawang: Some useful ships lost but nothing jarring. Nearly all enemy success was against stragglers and rearguard elements. The primary force - an invasion force bound for Miri - is mostly untouched.






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Post #: 1819
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 10:02:16 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

It's been a crazy couple of days. Wednesday and Thursday, we moved my Mom here from Kentucky in the midst of the flooding rains followed by crazy wind and cold. It went well but it was a frantic and busy time. Today was devoted to tons of paperwork getting her established here. It also included a "little job" of assembling a special commode seat. I estimated it would take 30 minutes. It took about 2.5 hours including a trip to Home Depot. I was reduced to weeping over my utter incompetence as a son and handyman.


Doing the Lords work there Dan. A big change for everyone but best for all I'm sure. Did the same for my mom and my mother in law. Your a good man. Now here is an interesting question. Did mom have a TV? If will there now be a TV in Casa Dan?

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1820
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 10:07:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/16/44

Battle of Singkawang: Dave struck so fast he pre-empted my plan to strike KB. Fortuantely, KB mostly gutted itself, leaving the Allies in a stronger position to pursue further, deeper offensive ops.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/1/2019 10:08:06 PM >

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Post #: 1821
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 10:18:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Doing the Lords work there Dan. A big change for everyone but best for all I'm sure. Did the same for my mom and my mother in law. Your a good man. Now here is an interesting question. Did mom have a TV? If will there now be a TV in Casa Dan?


Thanks for the pick-me-up words, John. Much appreciated.

I didn't make it clear that we moved mom to assisted living nearby, so she indeed has her television. Today she was watching Mayberry RFD and Gunsmoke. She is heavily dependent on a wheelchair so that there's no way for her to use the little bathrooms in our house.

While accessing Mom's paperwork today to open a bank account and get her admitted to the assisted living residence, I came across paperwork noting that today is the 41st anniversary of her divorce from my dad. That was a titanic disruption in the peace and wellbeing of our household, when I was a teenager. It devastated my mom and my younger sister. I was 17 and getting ready to move on to college, so of course it didn't affect me at all. Or so I thought. In later years, as I had children and gave them advice and counseled and comforted, I would so often think how much I regret that my dad wasn't there to do such things for me. A father can be a fount of wisdom, encouragement and important facts. I didn't see dad from 1978 until sometime in the late 1990s!


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/1/2019 10:19:29 PM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1822
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 10:36:32 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/17/44

Battle of Singkawang: Having committed his air power on the 16th, Dave commits his CL/DD and DD TFs on the 17th, with an assist from LBA (KB vanished). His guys got in some licks because Dave is clever and had a well-conceived plan. Once again, however, the losses he suffered outweighed his gains by a considerable margin, and what he did accomplish had no measurable affect on the impending invasion of Miri.

This is most of the most important altercations of the day.




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Post #: 1823
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/1/2019 11:50:03 PM   
Lovejoy


Posts: 240
Joined: 12/16/2015
From: United States
Status: offline 		Great Goggerty! Does your opponent have any NavBomb/NavTorp trained pilots left?

Well done on the Great Borneo Turkey Shoot! Even factoring in FOW, those are significant losses, and your previous attrition of his strike groups have to be hurting his pilot quality while boosting your own fighter pilots. Those ship losses are gonna hurt too, particularly if you get to 1945 and are operating right off the Home Islands.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1824
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/2/2019 11:05:09 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm losing merchantmen and he's losing DDs. The points exchange is probably roughly equal but the affect on long term fighting ability should favor the Allies.

(in reply to Lovejoy)
Post #: 1825
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/2/2019 11:08:43 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/18/44 and 10/19/44

Invasion of Miri: The enemy having expended itself in the skirmishing near Singakawang, they pull back to regroup. DS & The Herd press forward to D-Day at Miri, which goes well.

The fleet will spend a few days at Miri before retiring to Soerabaja to drop off damaged ships and receive freshly repaired ones, like Enterprise. What then?

Two possibilities: Proceed more linearly with an invasion to isolated Singapore, or non-linearly to strike much deeper. Big armies are fully prepped for both, and both will take place. Their order is the only question. Leaning non-linear.




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Post #: 1826
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/2/2019 1:21:55 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		If Singapore is a possibility then take it. Seems dock space is pretty popular these days and the shipyard is a good one. Unless it will take months. then pass

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1827
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/2/2019 11:26:46 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		CB,

You seem to be a good man, and you have a great AAR (as always).

Thanks for both,
T Rav

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 1828
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/2/2019 11:28:52 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
Joined: 5/29/2004
Status: offline 		Meant to say a great man and a good AAR... But now I'm quibbling.

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 1829
RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 11/3/2019 11:29:57 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well thank you, T Rav. Yer makin' me blush, but your words are appreciated.

(in reply to T Rav)
Post #: 1830
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