LargeDiameterBomb
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Joined: 3/3/2019
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My view is the time for the carrier is coming near unless we see a massive development in laser-based technologies and electromagnetic weapons (For instance masers, that is at a theoretical stage right now, which might be required since lasers are only fair weather weapons) that is much faster than the development of drones and cruise missiles.
It wouldn't surprise me if the chinese already have the capability to put 100 to 200 very long range antiship cruise missiles relatively simultaneously at a carrier group 750 miles from shore, the carrier found by satelites in geosynchronous orbit over the northern South China Sea. Even that would be enough to overwhelm the defenses of a current CSG unless they start packing a lot of blk II RIM-162 ESSMs with active radar seekers in their Mk41 cells.
Even then, what you're doing when defending is shooting american missiles costing something in the range of 1,25-1,5 million dollars against chinese cruise missiles built by relatively lower-paid, more intelligent people costing perhaps 0,5-1,75 million dollars against a foe that is soon going to have a bigger GDP (And in a couple of decades a much larger GDP) and a larger military budget that is only used to pay for weapons/equipment, training and (lower) wages while the US spends approximately a third of it's military budget on soldier's healthcare and other benefits for soldiers. Adding useless operations that for the most part are not in the US interest and almost half of the US military budget is effectively lost.
Even with more block II ESSMs, it wont be long until some anti-ship cruise missiles carry perhaps five to fifteen small sub-missiles/drones at 50-100 lbs each that are released a couple of miles from a target ship, each with small warheads but excellent maneuverability and targeting capability that will be able to aim for very specific parts of equipment of a ship, for instance the main radars or missile illuminators of an escort ship or for the launcher catapults of an aircraft carrier and that can overwhelm any projected advancements in western defences in bad weather.
Eventually the escort ships in a CSG will run out of missiles and will be easy targets.
The Chinese have set the goal to be world leading in artificial intelligence by 2035 and they are already ahead of the west in some aspects of AI research such as facial recognition (Which is a technology close to imaging EO targeting), and they have a fairly higher mean IQ than the US population - And a higher IQ is correlated with educational achivement and career success, especially when combined with healthy norms - and China has just that - much healthier norms than the west aimed at building citizens with extremely high conscientousness (12 hour work days six days a week are expected of everybody in the chinese tech industry) and an overarching ideal of nationalism, patriotism and collective self preservation rather than the western main ideals of equality, freedom and individual self-expression.
Also, meanwhile the western leader in AI, Alphabet, won't even work with the US military since it is effectively populated by people who hate western civilization.
And the civilization that will win the AI race will forever rule the seas (and the world). So to sum it up, it's primarily the western carrier that is dooomed, if i may guesstimate.
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ot aircraft carriers, article in "the economist&qu... - 
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