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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99.

 
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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:18:54 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Italy. The Italian/French Border.

Italy, who still is not at war with France, has managed (for now) to tie up a number of French units that could be used against Germany.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 61
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:20:23 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Italy. Egypt.

Balbo's push into Egypt is nothing more than a feint given the strong CW forces there. The objective is to keep those forces in Egypt and away from France (or other areas) for as long as possible.




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Ronnie

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RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:21:31 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #7. Italy. East Africa.

Italy's trying to be a bit sneaky in East Africa and steal what they can.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 63
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:29:46 AM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline 		Out of curiosity, how many organized tactical bombing factors are within range of the Netherlands resource center, and how many ground factors could attack the Dutch if they hole up in the capital? With no BEF at sea, now looks like a good time to attack the Netherlands. You need the ground strike factors, though, or the Dutch set up their unit on the resource hex and bring everything to a halt. If you have the ground strike factors and an mechanized unit you can flip such a unit, put it out of supply, and overrun it.

I have to say your opponent is making a LOT of mistakes. Malta, the Chinese oil, not putting escorts in the North Atlantic....

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Post #: 64
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:53:50 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Out of curiosity, how many organized tactical bombing factors are within range of the Netherlands resource center, and how many ground factors could attack the Dutch if they hole up in the capital? With no BEF at sea, now looks like a good time to attack the Netherlands. You need the ground strike factors, though, or the Dutch set up their unit on the resource hex and bring everything to a halt. If you have the ground strike factors and an mechanized unit you can flip such a unit, put it out of supply, and overrun it.

I have to say your opponent is making a LOT of mistakes. Malta, the Chinese oil, not putting escorts in the North Atlantic....

F/B w/2 TAC. Land units. Corps. 8-6 arm, 7-5 arm, HQ-A, 6-6 mech. Divisions. 2-5 mot, 1-5 mot, 2-6 A/T.

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Ronnie

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Post #: 65
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 2:06:35 AM   
rkr1958


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958


quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

Out of curiosity, how many organized tactical bombing factors are within range of the Netherlands resource center, and how many ground factors could attack the Dutch if they hole up in the capital? With no BEF at sea, now looks like a good time to attack the Netherlands. You need the ground strike factors, though, or the Dutch set up their unit on the resource hex and bring everything to a halt. If you have the ground strike factors and an mechanized unit you can flip such a unit, put it out of supply, and overrun it.

I have to say your opponent is making a LOT of mistakes. Malta, the Chinese oil, not putting escorts in the North Atlantic....

F/B w/2 TAC. Land units. Corps. 8-6 arm, 7-5 arm, HQ-A, 6-6 mech. Divisions. 2-5 mot, 1-5 mot, 2-6 A/T.
Also, I have a division on the coast with 3 6-mover naval units in a Baltic port that could reach the 3-box of the North Sea. Even though the 2 tac factors would only give me a 36% chance of flipping the Dutch unit if placed on the resource hex, there is the chance of invading The Hague with the SS div supported overland by three ground units.

So if the turn continues and I get fine weather in the north temperate I must confess that I'm seriously considering a "roll of the dice" (i.e., invasion of the Netherlands).

So given fine weather and the turn continuing, I have three chances of taking the Netherlands in the surprise impulse: (1) 36% chance of flipping and overrunning NEI unit if placed on resource, (2) successfully getting past the RN in the North Sea (60% chance, 4 range CVP in 3-box) and landing the SS div in Amsterdam if NEI on resource and (3) opponent sets up land unit in Amsterdam (100% chance of success then).

Assuming my opponent does set up on the resource hex then I'd have a 74.4% chance of capturing Amsterdam on the surprise impulse.

Is the gain worth the risk?




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Ronnie

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Post #: 66
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 2:24:11 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Another complicating factor is that the CW has a 1-4 division in Liverpool which they could rush via SCS transport to Rotterdam, or Amsterdam, if the turn continued to their impulse. Not sure how much of a complicating factor that is but one nevertheless.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 67
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 8:20:14 AM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline 		You need an undisrupted corps that can reach the hex northwest of the resource hex. Is there one under the AA gun, the FTR, the engineer, or your stack of naval units? If not, you can't put the resource center out of supply. The 6-4 on the east edge of your picture could get there in two impulses.

My initial reaction was to think that a 3/4 chance was not the way to go. However, it is not the case that it is 3/4 chance now versus a 100% chance later; if the CW maintains a reaction force, it is a 75% chance now versus a 40% chance later, plus whatever the odds are of composer making the same mistake.

So first, can you cut the resource center out of supply? If not, don't do it! Also, how many attack factors of undisrupted units are in range for an attack on Amsterdam? If there aren't enough to get a good attack on Amsterdam, then don't do it.

If you can, it is up to you. Do you feel lucky?

Also, you haven't set up for the invasion of Denmark. Your opponent has made another mistake; he should have taken a free swipe at your convoys in the Baltic in the surprise impulse. So you might want to take a land, so as to get more units in position for both the Netherlands and Denmark.

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Post #: 68
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 12:01:02 PM   
rkr1958


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

You need an undisrupted corps that can reach the hex northwest of the resource hex. Is there one under the AA gun, the FTR, the engineer, or your stack of naval units? If not, you can't put the resource center out of supply. The 6-4 on the east edge of your picture could get there in two impulses.

My initial reaction was to think that a 3/4 chance was not the way to go. However, it is not the case that it is 3/4 chance now versus a 100% chance later; if the CW maintains a reaction force, it is a 75% chance now versus a 40% chance later, plus whatever the odds are of composer making the same mistake.

So first, can you cut the resource center out of supply? If not, don't do it! Also, how many attack factors of undisrupted units are in range for an attack on Amsterdam? If there aren't enough to get a good attack on Amsterdam, then don't do it.

If you can, it is up to you. Do you feel lucky?

Also, you haven't set up for the invasion of Denmark. Your opponent has made another mistake; he should have taken a free swipe at your convoys in the Baltic in the surprise impulse. So you might want to take a land, so as to get more units in position for both the Netherlands and Denmark.

The 6-6 mech and 7-5 armor are in range to cut supply. Of course, I only need 1. If he sets up on the resource then I have the units that can reach both Rotterdam and The Hague after the overrun. No concern there. If not, then I could get > +18.5 on The Hague if I don't worry about Rotterdam (i.e., forgo the combine w/invasion + land attack on Rotterdam in lieu of an all out land attack on The Hague).

wrt/Denmark. It's already been invaded and conquered by Germany (see post 39).

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/1/2020 3:14:33 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 69
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 9:19:50 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #9. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] So, there being a 10% chance that the turn will end, how do you want to handle things like preliminary & final production and actually building stuff?

[al] I'm pretty sure that most turns I'll want to deal with Allied preliminary production myself.

[ax] Agree

[ax] Both German pact chits offensive pool

[ax] Then take care of allied preliminary and email back for axis preliminary

[al] Sounds good.

[al] Anyway, I'm clicking the "end phase" button and the end of turn die roll is a...

[al] 8.

[al] So I guess I'll play out my impulse.

[al] Everyone except for the CW is going to pass.

[al] CW is calling a combined impulse.

[ax] Makes sense. What's the end of turn number?

[al] 40%

[ax] Thanks

[al] No port attacks or naval air.

[al] Naval moves:
- RN cruiser Sheffield embarks the 2nd infantry division and sails from Liverpool to the Western Med 3 box;
- RN cruiser Liverpool and RAN cruiser Shropshire sail from Aden to the Eastern Med 3 box.

[al] Naval combats:
- RN can initiate in North Atlantic, but doesn't. (Based on last impulse's performance, it's a good thing the Italian's can't.)

[al] - RN initiates in Eastern Med. Do you want to send up any planes?

[ax] No

[al] Okay.

[al] Search rolls are CW 7, Italy 10. The Regia Marina has dodged a few batteries of 15-inch guns with that result.

[al] Land moves:
- No rail moves;
- MOT corps and HQ Wavell move up to Alexandria and environs, and the AT gun in Alexandria stacks with Wavell.

{AL-01 attached}

[ax] Copy that

[al] Last step of the impulse are air rebases (nothing for CW HQs to reorg in range). So I'm saving here and sending over the file. That way, if the turn doesn't end, you get to roll for weather.

[ax] Watching the end of a couple bowl games so it'll be a few minutes before I'll get to the game.

[al] Take your time. I'm no rush to see the Royal Navy embarrass itself again.

[ax] By the way, where does Soviet chit go?

[al] Defensive

[ax] RN will be fine. They just need to get their sea legs.

[ax] End of Turn = 2 < 5. Turn ends.

{Well that takes care of any thoughts of going after Holland this turn. So much buildup, so anti-climatic}

[al] Much as I wanted the Axis to end the turn, that's one less impulse of Japanese manoeuvres in China, and one less impulse of German army transiting from East to West, so well and good.

[ax] Partisan rolls. Korea=58, China=54, Malaya=70, Burma=12, India=61, FIC=52. No partisans.

[ax] Yes, I was hoping for 1 more fine weather impulse in the north temperate specifically for those two reasons; i.e., (1) another look at attacking Nanyang and (2) getting more units from Poland to west. Oh well, ...

[ax] Nazi-Soviet Pact. Chit draws. Germany x 2, both to offensive pool. USSR x 1, to defensive pool. Germany's dice rolls [0,3017]=229 & 1277. USSR's die roll [0,3017]=2040.

[ax] US entry? How do you wish to handle that? I can email turn back or you can give me instructions. Either way is fine with me. Your call.

[al] Might as well email me back the turn. I think prelim production is right after US entry.

[ax] Copy that.

[ax] 01-SEP-OCT-1939-EOT-US-Entry.zip sent.

[al] US draws 1 marker versus Japan.

[ax] Copy that.

[al] US chooses option 7 Occupy Greenland & Iceland. The US has 3 markers in the Ge/It pool, value of 3, 1, and 1, for a Ge/It value of 6.5, or enough entry for that option without revealing the marker in the Japan pool.

[al] Tension roll is 6, which moves 1 marker to tension.

[ax] Copy that.

[al] US chooses option 1 Chinese Build Aircraft. Since any two markers you know the values for will cover the entry for that option, the US won't reveal the marker in the Japan pool.

[al] Tension roll is 4, which is just shy of what I needed to move the marker to tension.

[al] That's it for US entry.




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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/1/2020 9:20:10 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 70
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 11:05:52 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn (continued). In Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] Do you want me to send back the file for the final production check? For builds? For factory destruction?

[al] The Italian FTR in the 0 box of the Eastern Med - would you rather have that RTB to cover the forces advancing into Egypt?

[ax] If you wish I can work that by this app and you can keep the game file open

[al] Sounds good.

[ax] Italian fighter Egypt, 1 hex behind Balboa.

[al] And what about the two Japanese transports in the China Sea?

[ax] Fukuko

[al] Done.

[ax] For production if you would send me a copy of the game file I'll use that to figure out and send back axis build instructions.

[ax] That is, let you handle it all without having to close, reopen and possibly see all your hardwork with allied production scrambled.

[al] Sending you the file now. You also get the privilege of figuring out your oil reorg, lucky you.

[ax] Copy that.

[ax] You have the master and I have a copy.

[ax] All axis oil consuming units should be reorg.

[al] That's correct.

[ax] Thanks.

[al] Allies reorged all oil units save for 1 RN sub squadron.

[al] Italy could have broken down the MTN corps, but given its placement along the French frontier, I felt safe assuming you didn't want to.

[ax] That's correct. No breakdown.

[al] China has broken down the CAV corps in the south into an infantry and motorised division.

[al] Ge final production. I see 2 idle factories and 22 producing, 5 saved oil, and 17 build points produced with 2 traded for 15 production. Correct?

[ax] Yes.

[al] It final production. I see 7 idle factories and 4 producing. 1 saved oil, and 2 build points. Correct?

[ax] Italy 1 saved oil, 2 BP's.

[ax] Japan, 3 additional oil saved and 11 BP's.

[al] I see 14 producing factories, 6 oil total saved (3 left from reorg + 3 additional), and 11 bps produced, less 1 traded for 10 to build with, so looks all good.

[ax] Copy that.

[al] Any instructions for builds? Or would you rather do those yourself? I can send the game file after production is finalised with Allied build instructions.

[al] Also, do you want to scrap the Graf Spee?

[ax] Scarp Graf Spee.

[ax] I've seen allied bps messed up even at this stage with saves and reloads.

[ax] Recommended you continue with the master, send me a copy and I'll send you my axis builds.

[ax] Recommend who ever has the master at the start of production keep the file open and handle all production with instructions from the other.

[al] Sounds good.

[al] Sent you the copy file, you can send me instructions for scrapping obsolete units and builds.

[ax] Copy received. Axis production instructions to follow.

[ax] German Builds (15 BP's). PIL(2), Sub 2nd(1), Sub 1st(1), HQ-A(8), Para Div(3).

[ax] Italian Builds (2 BP's). CP(1), Sub 2nd(1).

[ax] Japanese Builds (10 BP's). PIL(2), CVP(0), CV Shokaku 2nd(2), MIL(2) x 3.

[al] Any scrapping for Germany or Italy now they can scrap 1936 stuff? Or you all good until next turn?

[ax] I can't scrap anything can I until the beginning of 1940?

[al] No, you can scrap obsolete units now.

[al] I mean, you didn't build anything where you were at risk of drawing obsolete stuff, so it's not like you need to do it this turn.

[ax] Never knew that ... no additional units scrapped at this time.




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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/1/2020 11:54:27 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 71
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/1/2020 11:59:01 PM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline 		I am confused. If the Italians expended 1.6 oil, why didn't they have to spend two oil points? I don't understand what MWiF did on the Italian oil screen.

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(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 72
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/2/2020 1:19:42 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn (concluded). In Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] Before I commit to finishing Japan's builds, then, would you at least like to scrap the two 35M4 cvp0s?

[al] Japan's 0-cost CVPs {01}

[al] I guess it doesn't matter since they don't cost anything.

[ax] No. Please keep them. I actually have plans for them.

[al] Righty-o.

[ax] Those CVP's give me a no-cost way of keeping Japanese air gearing limits at 2 for 3 turns.

[al] Here are the builds for so39. (I like to track the Allied production advantage, both turn-by-turn and cumulatively, so you can see they're off to a good start.) {02}

[ax] Looks great. Thanks for doing that.

[ax] Interesting. US building a synth.

[al] Okay, I'm sending over the file at the factory destruction step. You can take it from there for initiative.

[ax] Copy that.

[al] If the Allies win initiative, they will make the Axis go first.

[ax] Spoil sport.

[al] Actually, guess I shouldn't have said that. Though I rather doubt you'd be desperate to re-roll initiative at this point in the game.

[al] <in Hagrid voice>: I shouldn't 'ave said that. I should not have said that! <end Hagrid voice>

[al] I've sent the file now.

[al] I had better remember trade agreements, not that I have many options just now.

[ax] No plan to ask for re-roll. In fact if axis win they will have the allies move first.

[al] I figured as much.

[al] For trade agreements, the Commonwealth will lend France 2 build points.

[ax] Any resource lending?

[ax] Beat me too it.

[al] CW might lend France 1 resource, but let me just check a rule, first.

[ax] Watching the end of the Oregon, Wisconsin game. 4 minutes left.

[al] Okay, CW will also lend France 1 resource (which I hope will be the Cyprus resource, but we will see).

[ax] Copy that. CW will lend France 2 BP's and 1 non-oil RP.

[ax] Factory destruction. Japan destroys blue factory in Canton.

[ax] Also, I need to know what planes you want to put pilots in and where to place your reinforcements. Do you want me to send a copy when the allies are up and let me handle all placements?

[al] Just give me a couple of minutes and I should be able to let you know shortly.

[ax] Copy that.

[al] Reinforcements:

[al] China and France have no reinforcements or planes to put down.

[ax] Germany. FTR2 Aachen, 6-3 SS inf Kningsberg, 2-6 Arm div Dusseldorf, 2-3 AT div Essen.

[al] USSR has no reinforcements, but will use a pilot to put down the lnd4 in reserve into Dnepopetrovsk.

[ax] Italy. 4-5 mot Trieste, FTR2 Turin.

[al] United States will not put down any planes from reserve. It will place the cruiser USS Houston into Norfolk.

[ax] Japan. Tokyo MIL, Osaka MIL, Harbin Man MIL (all placed in their respective cities).

[al] Commonwealth will put the following planes down:
(1) The Baffin cvp1 on light carrier HMS Hermes in Liverpool;
(2) The Hurricane ftr2 in reserve onto London;
(3) The Albacore nav2 from ND39 reinforcements into Belfast.

[al] Other Commonwealth reinforcements:
- Convoy point to Calcutta;
- HMS Valiant to Liverpool.

[ax] Copy that.

[ax] Resource Lending. Axis. No agreements other than Mandatory.

[ax] Resource Lending. Allied. CW to France. 2 BP's & 1 non-oil RP. No other non-Mandatory agreements.

[ax] Nov/Dec 1939. Trade Agreements. {03}

[al] Lookin' good.

[ax] Initiative. Axis = 8 + 2 =10. Allied = 2. The axis win the initiative and elect to have the allies move first.

[ax] Initiative. {04}

[ax] Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #1. Weather = 6. (2, +1). (1) arctic - snow, (2) north temperate - storms, (3) med - rain, (4) north monsoon - find, (5) south monsoon - rain & (6) south temperate - fine.

[al] Just the weather I'm looking for in the North Temperate.

[ax] What are you. A duck?

[al] The Royal Navy does appear to have ducks for sailors.

[ax]

[ax] Game turn, 02-Nov-Dec-1939-Allied-01.zip sent.

[al] Got it.




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< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/2/2020 1:20:34 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 73
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/2/2020 1:22:35 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

I am confused. If the Italians expended 1.6 oil, why didn't they have to spend two oil points? I don't understand what MWiF did on the Italian oil screen.
The Italians used 0.65 in Cologne from Germany's reorg and their 1 saved oil in Rome. Note that in the Italian screen that "Include oil from cooperating major powers" is checked.


< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/2/2020 1:26:31 AM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 74
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/3/2020 10:07:46 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn. Destroyed/Repair.

I really the latest changes made by Steve to these forms. The destroyed pool now includes number of CP points and pilots lost.

Nice change. Thanks, Steve!




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Ronnie

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Post #: 75
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/3/2020 10:09:08 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn. Global Map. Hex Control.

Both Poland and Denmark were conquered by Germany this turn.






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Ronnie

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Post #: 76
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/3/2020 10:09:42 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn. Global Maps. Active Convoys.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 77
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/3/2020 10:12:21 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. End of Turn. Victory Totals.




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Ronnie

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Post #: 78
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 12:45:22 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #1. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] 1st Allied Impulse. No declarations of war or border demands.

[al] Actions:
- USA & USSR combined
- CW and France naval
- China land

[al] Non-CW Naval Moves:
- USA sails convoy points from San Diego to Hawaiian islands sea area (not on sentry)
- France sails cruisers to the 0 box and 4 box of Gulf of Guinea
- France sails cruisers to the 0 box and 3 box of Cape Verde Basin
- France sails TRS to 0 box of Cape Verde Basin
- France sails SUB to 0 box of Cape St Vincent
- France sails cruiser from French Somaliland to 3 box of E Med (joining other cruisers at sea there)
- France sails cruiser from Marseilles to 4 box of Italian Coast

[al] CW Naval Moves:
- Cruisers from Halifax & Liverpool to 0, 1, and 4 box of East Coast;
- Cruisers drop to 0 and 1 boxes of N Atlantic
- Light CV and cruisers from Liverpool to N Atlantic (0 box for CVL, 4 box for cruisers)
- BBs to 0 box of N Atlantic, Bay of Biscay, and Cape St Vincent from Liverpool
- Cruisers to 0 and 4 box of Bay of Biscay from Plymouth & Liverpool
- Cruiser to 4 box of Cape St Vincent from Gibraltar
- Cruisers and battleships from Aden and Port Said to 3 box E Med
- Transport flotilla with fighters embarked from Plymouth to 0 box Cape St Vincent
- Transport flotilla from Plymouth to 0 box Bay of Biscay, embarks Irish TERR
- Queens sails from Jamestown in St Helena (South Atlantic) to 0 box Bay of Biscay, embarks II Corps (7-3 INF)
- Polish destroyer flotilla from Plymouth to 4 box Faeroes Gap

[al] Naval Combat: CW initiates in Eastern Med. Does Italy want to intercept any aircraft?

[al] Do you want me to send you a saved game up to the point of initiating naval combats to look at before deciding?

[ax] FTR2 in Egypt to 0 box. Also. What's the defense of Italian nav2 in Malta? What the fighter strength of any rn Cvps or planes in east med?

[ax] Any cw planes that can react too?

[al] Italian NAV has 0 a2a factors. No RN carriers or planes that can react in E Med. (Yet.)

[ax] Nav2 in Malta to 2 box.

[al] Interceptions performed as directed.

[al] Search rolls: CW 4, Italy 3. Both sides would have found with those results in fine weather, but both are foiled by the rain.

[ax] I'm good with that.

[al] Land Stuff:
- USSR rails 4th Siberian Corps from Chita to Blagovyechensk on the Amur River (where the 3rd Siberian Corps and HQ Zhukov are stationed)
- USSR adjusts lines along frontier with Rumania;
- Warlord forces from Lanchow move to near Sian (right at their range limit)
- USA disembarks 4th infantry division from USS Salt Lake City (which I forgot to mention sailed to The Marshalls sea area) to Wake Island;
- KMT units vacate Hengyang (south of Changsha) and head into the mountains to the west:
- KMT divisions on the resource in Kwangsi Province join larger formations in Kweilin and south of the Hsi river.

[al] Rebases:
- French FTR stationed east of Paris flies to Strasbourg;
- US NAV stationed in Honolulu files to Midway;
- Soviet bomber squadron in Odessa rebases to hex just northwest;
- Hurricanes aboard transports in Cape St Vincent debark into Gibraltar;
- Fairey Battle squadron in London rebases to Plymouth;
- Hurricanes in London rebase to Dover.

[al] No HQ reorg needed. I'm sending the game file at the HQ reorg stage, you can end the phase to proceed to the Axis impulse.

[ax] Copy that.

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 79
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 12:52:16 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Sep/Oct 1939. Goals/Objectives. Japan. China.

1. Protect captured RP's and ensure shipment to Japanese factories.

2. Capture open city - Hengyang. (this, impulse 3).

3. Transport 2 MIL's in Japan to China. (this, impulse 3).

4. Begin conquest/securing of Southern China, coastal.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/4/2020 1:14:56 AM >

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 80
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 1:17:57 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Sep/Oct 1939. Goals/Objectives. Japan. Manchuria/Korea.

1. Protect captured RP's and ensure shipment to Japanese factories (Korea).

2. Maintain sufficient garrison to prevent Partisans and discourage DOW by USSR (Manchuria).

Unless the Japanese capture of the open city Hengyang generates an entry chit, I don't see any threat that the Soviets will DOW the USSR with only 1 entry chit in the US/Japanese pool. If they did, there would be an 80% chance that the US could never declare war on Japan.




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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 81
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 1:41:29 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Sep/Oct 1939. Goals/Objectives. Euro-Axis. CW Convoys.

There are 2 German u-boats in Kiel (5 & 4 movers) and 3 Italian subs in Malta (5, 4 & 4 movers).

My opponent had defended the North Atlantic, which has 10 CW CP's, more strongly than the Bay of Biscay, which has 16 CW CP's. It's storms in both sea areas, which means +1 to axis search rolls and no -1/-2 due to the presence of CW CP's.

Cape St. Vincent (rain) in addition to the Bay of Biscay is also lightly defended. The -1 search roll modifier the axis get due to the CW CP's is canceled by the +1 due to rain. Also, there's an RAF fighter 2 in Gibraltar that would most certainty react to the 0-box if the axis attempt a sub combat.

The axis will attempt sub combats in the Bay of Biscay and Cape St. Vincent. 2 German and 1 Italian sub will be sent to the Bay of Biscay. However, 1 will be in the 2-box and 2 will be in the 1-box. With +1 due to storms and no bonus for CP's, this means that the axis will only have a 10% chance of finding and only with the u-boat in the 2-box. So be it. Even 0.100 hitters connect for a hit 10% of the time.

2 Italian subs (3 & 2 boxes) will be sent to Cape St. Vincent. This gives the Italians a 30% chance of finding with 1 and a 20% chance of finding with both subs.

The Battle of the Atlantic is about persistence and forcing the allies; especially the RN, to devote ships and actions to securing the vital allied shipping lanes.






Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 82
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 1:51:13 AM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Sep/Oct 1939. Goals/Objectives. Italy. Egypt & East Med.

FYI. 4 RN CA's are docked in Port Said.

The Italians have drawn the focus of Wavell's HQ-A, 3 corps and a gun division with slightly less forces. At this time I don't see the CW making a push forces so equally matched. Unless they can break supply to the East Med and flip the Italians.

The Italians have no desire at this point to push further into Egypt and are more than happy to keep this apparent stalemate continuing as long as the CW keeps Wavell and other forces in Egypt, which could have gone to France. To keep up appearances, i.e., as if the Italians plan to push hard towards the canal, the Italians will move 7 CA's to the Eastern Med and attempt a naval combat. Note that the RN has no planes at sea or that can react.

I do hope these aggressive feints by Italy to tie up forces in North Africa doesn't in the end cost Italy too much.




Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 83
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 6:52:23 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[ax] Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. No DOW's, no alignments. Japan - combine, Germany - combine, Italy - naval.

[ax] Naval air. None.

[ax] Naval Move. IJN x 2. (1) TRS in Canton to China Sea, loads 6-2 Tokyo MIL and stops in 0-box. (2) TRS in Fukuoka to China Sea, loads 5-3 Osaka MIL and stops in 0-box.

[ax] Euro-Axis. Sub Moves x 2. (1) Bay of Biscay (storms), 1 Ge sub 2-box, 1 Ge & 1 IT sub 1-box. (2) Cape St. Vincent (rain), 1 It sub 3-box, 1 It sub 2-box.

[ax] It RM Moves x 2.
(1) IT Coast. 2 CA's 2-box to 0-box. TRS in Malta loads GAR to 0-box. CA from La Spezia to 4-box. CA Malta to 3-box.
(2) West Med. 7 CA's from Malta to 4-box.

[ax] The Italians will initiate a sub combat in Cape St. Vincent. Do you wish to react with the FTR2 in Gibraltar? If so where? {graphic 01}

[al] Yes, into the 0 box.

[ax] Cape St. Vincent (rain). Italian sub 3-box initiates. RAF Hurricane I in Gibraltar reacts to 0-box. Search. Axis 6, allied 9. Nobody finds.

[ax] Bay of Biscay (storms). No air or air reactions possible.
German sub 2-box initiates.
Search. Axis=9, allied=4. Neither find.

[ax] East Med (rain). Italian fighter 0-box initiates. No air reactions.
Search. Axis=6, allied=3. Only the allies find. {graphic 02}


[al] The CW will fight the Italian 4 box, spending 2 surprise to reduce the damage to the CW.

[ax] RN is up first. Risk is X, 3A's. Instructions?

[al] Okay, X on Barham. We'll see if it survives or not as we'll try to get it to eat an abort or two.

[ax] X risk on Barham = 10, damaged. A risk on Barham = 2. Barham is damaged and aborted. 2 A risks remaining.

[al] Great. Both remaining As on Cornwall, but if it aborts after the first A, put the second on Birmingham.

[al] All aborted ships return to Port Said.

[ax] A risk CA Cornwall = 3, aborted. A risk CA Birmingham = 1, aborted. Well, the RN passed (only) 1 of the 4 risk rolls, but passed the most critical one.

[ax] RM risk X, D, 2A.
X risk on CA Duca D'Aosta = 10, damaged.

[ax] D risk on CA Baribaldi=7, aborted.
A risk on damaged CA Duca D'Aosta=3, damaged & aborted.
A risk CA Pola=7, 1/2 aborted.

[ax] Thus ends round 1 in the East Med. Italians stay. Assume RN stays?

[al] Correct.

[ax] Round 2. East Med.
No additional air reactions.

[ax] Search. Axis=6, Allied=10. Neither find.
Battle ends in what I would consider a draw.
Though, a draw for the RN against the Italians is really a victory.

[ax] Italian aborts (2 CA's, 1 of which is also damaged) go to Malta.

[ax] RN aborts to Port Said.

[ax] Strategic Bombing. None.

[ax] Ground Strike. Japan x 1.
1 TAC vs Nationalist 3-stack (1st Inf div, 1st inf corps, 20th gar), China[87,140].
D10x3=4, 6, 1. 20th gar (4-1) flipped.

[ax] Rail. Japan x 1 (combine).
4-1 Gar. Tsitsihar, Manchuria to China[74,143].
1 hex southwest of RP.

[ax] Rail. Germany x 1 (combine).
7-3 inf. Warsaw to Frankfurt, Germany.

[ax] Germany Land Moves x 6. 6 ground units in the East moved towards the West.

[ax] IJN 4-4 SNLF Mar occupies Hengyang. USE=5, no chit added.

[ax] Japan 3 land moves (combine). All three used in the south (of China).

[ax] Land Combat. None.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany x 6.
(1) Ju88A1. Ge[51,41] -> Saarbrucken, Ge.
(2) He 111H. Ge[49,41] -> Dusseldorf, Ge.
(3) Ju 87B Stuka. Ge[48,43] -> Essen, Ge.
(4) Bf 110C F/B. Ge[48,46] -> Cologne, Ge.
(5) Bf 109D-4 F/B. Ge[48,45] -> Ge[49,36].
(6) Ju 87B Stuka. Ge[47,45] -> Ge[50,38].

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy x 1.
CR42. Turin -> It[67,39] (1-hex NW Rome).

[ax] Air Rebase. Japan x 2.
(1) D2A2 (Val) Kaifeng, China -> Ch[81,142] (Umezu's stack).
(2) Ki-51. Kaifeng -> Hangyang, China.

[ax] Axis impulse ended.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 84
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 6:56:18 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. East Med. Round 1.

Well, the RN found and the Italians didn't. Given that the combat results went about as well as I could have hoped.

Interestingly, the RN had a chance to isolated the 0-box, sink the Italian supply CP and cut supply to the Italians in Libya/Egypt. But my opponent elected instead to duke it out with the 7 Italian cruisers in the 4-box. I was actually relieved by that decision on his part.




Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 85
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 6:59:22 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. Japan. Southern China.

There may be developing an opportunity to bag some Nationalist and possibly flank them west of Hengyang.

A note of caution to myself. Don't allow Japanese forces in the south to get sucked into the interior of China unless there's an opportunity to inflict substantial damage on the Nationalist.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/4/2020 9:26:52 PM >

_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 86
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 7:44:30 PM   
Courtenay


Posts: 4003
Joined: 11/12/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. Japan. Southern China.

A note of caution to myself. Don't allow Japanese forces in the south to get sucked into the interior of Japan unless there's an opportunity to inflict substantial damage on the Nationalist.



Yes, getting lost in the middle of Japan would probably be bad.

P.S. As the Italians, I would regard that battle as a victory. You damaged a battleship, at the cost of a damaged cruiser. A draw is equal repair cost, and is an Allied victory. This was a 2:1 in favor of you, which is a win.

< Message edited by Courtenay -- 1/4/2020 7:46:34 PM >

_____________________________

I thought I knew how to play this game....

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 87
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 9:26:20 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay

quote:

ORIGINAL: rkr1958

Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #3. Japan. Southern China.

A note of caution to myself. Don't allow Japanese forces in the south to get sucked into the interior of Japan unless there's an opportunity to inflict substantial damage on the Nationalist.



Yes, getting lost in the middle of Japan would probably be bad.

P.S. As the Italians, I would regard that battle as a victory. You damaged a battleship, at the cost of a damaged cruiser. A draw is equal repair cost, and is an Allied victory. This was a 2:1 in favor of you, which is a win.
Yes ... yikes ... meant China. Definitely something Freudian there ... Japanese troops fighting an endless war in China longing to be lost in Japan.


_____________________________

Ronnie

(in reply to Courtenay)
Post #: 88
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 9:49:51 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Allied #5. In-Game Communication Log.

Note. {...} = non-communications, "private" AAR axis comments.

[al] Weather roll is 3 for weather result of 4: rain in the Arctic and North Temperate, fine everywhere else.

[al] Impulses:
- USA pass
- USSR & CW combined
- Fr & Ch land

[al] No port attacks or naval air.

[al] Naval moves: RN task force of 2 CVs, 3 BBs sails from Gibraltar to E Med 3 box.

[al] Naval combats: CW can initiate in Bay of Biscay & Cape St Vincent but won't.

[al] CW initiates naval combat in E Med.

[al] CW has no land-based air to intercept - do you want to fly the Italian FTR from Malta?

[ax] No thank you.

[al] Search rolls are CW 3, Italy 3. CW 3 box and Italian 2 & 4 boxes all find. {graphic 01}

[al] CW chooses naval air combat.

[al] No surprise points for anyone. First up, air combat. The Swordfish CVP flies as a bomber and is automatically cleared through.

[al] Air combat round 1 rolls: Axis 12 (DC), Allied 11 (DC), ending the air combat.

[ax] What were the air-to-air values?

[al] CW had a Gladiator (3 a2a) versus the Italian Gabbiano (0 a2a), so it was +3/-3 Allied.

[ax] Yikes ... Italian Nav got lucky.

[al] Bit embarrassing for the RN carrier aviation boys.

[al] They'll be in for a scolding assuming their carrier survives.

[ax] They're still flying bi-planes for goodness sake!

[al] Oh, and you'll like the Italian AA fire. (Lowest 1 of 5) {graphic 02}

[ax] Italian AA gunners were personally trained by ll duce himself!

[al] That suppresses the RN bombers.

[al] CW AA fire is 8, 1, 4, 4.

[al] Royal Navy managed to take a situation that heavily favoured them and turn it into... well, we'll see once the damage rolls come down.

[al] Italy gets to apply an abort.

[ax] HMS (CV) Furious.

[al] A on Furious: saving throw is 6 - just low enough to abort her.

[ax] Italians stay.

[al] Swordfish lands on the aborted Furious, Gladiators land on Courageous.

[ax] Need to take a short 5-minute break. My "dogs of war" need to go outside.

[al] Righty-o.

[al] I'll wait until you get back for the next round of searches, 'cause the Royal Navy's staying.

[ax] Back.

[al] Okay. Second round. I feel safe assuming the FTR in Malta stays put.

[ax] Correct.

[al] Search rolls: both sides roll 9, ending the combat.

[ax] I'll take that.

[al] Yes, I daresay you will.

[al] HMS Furious aborts back to Gibraltar.

[al] No ground strikes or strat bombing.

[al] Rail moves:
- France rails Lyons MIL to HQ Billotte's position along Franco-Belgian frontier;
- USSR rails 4-2 art gun from Omsk to HQ Timoshenko's position along Rumanian frontier.

[al] Land moves:
- No USSR moves;
- CW 4-1 GARR from London to Dover;
- CW Manchester MIL from Manchester to coast just east of Coventry;
- CW London MIL from London to Bristol;
- No China moves;
- French XLII Corps moves from Damascus to hex inside Jordan nearest Haifa;
- French VII Corps moves from Paris to along Franco-Belgian frontier;
- French Paris MIL does same.

[al] No land combats or rebases.

[al] Saved game at HQ reorg step for France.

[al] Game sent.




Attachment (1)

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Ronnie

(in reply to rkr1958)
Post #: 89
RE: Axis Only. Ronnie vs Composer99. - 1/4/2020 9:56:52 PM   
rkr1958


Posts: 23483
Joined: 5/21/2009
Status: offline 		Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #7. In-Game Communication Log.

[ax] Turn 2. Nov/Dec 1939. Axis #7.
No DOW's. No alignments.
Japan - land, Germany - land, Italy - combine.

[ax] Naval Air. None.

[ax] Naval Move. Italy (combine) x 1.
Italian Coast. CA San Giorgio. 3-box to 1-box.

[ax] Euro-Axis Sub Combat x 2. (1) Cape St. Vincent. (2) Bay of Biscay.

[ax] (1) Cape St. Vincent.
No (additional) air reactions possible.
Search. Axis=2, Allied=9. Axis only (2 subs) find.

[ax] Axis isolate 0-box, which gives them 10 SP's.
Axis use 4 SP's to force sub combat.
Axis have 8 sub vs 6 CP's (3 ships), which gives an initial risk of X, A.
Allies have 2 ASW vs 2 subs, which gives an initial risk of 2 A.

[ax] Axis will use 2 SP's to increase allied risk to X, D, A.
Axis will use 3 of 4 remaining SP's to put X on RN TRS.

[ax] Italians are first up with risk of 2A.
A on Sub 5048 (12-box)=2, aborted.
A on Sub 5046 (3-box)=6, aborted.

[ax] RN risk X, D, A.
3 SP's used to X on TRS=8, damaged.
1 CP sunk, 1 CP aborted, leaving 4 CP's.
No Italian subs left in sea area. Combat over.

[ax] FYI. Remember to check sentry of surviving CP's.
MWiF has a habit of taking them off sentry when there are losses/aborts.

[ax] Italian sub aborts x 2 go to Malta.

[ax] Where does the one CW CP abort go?

[al] Cp to Gibraltar is fine.

[ax] Euro-Axis sub. Bay of Biscay. The Italians initiate combat. Possible allied air reactions.

[ax] Possible. Albacore Belfast -> 0-box. Fairey Plymouth -> 0 or 1-box. Hampden Harwich (extend range) -> 0 or 1-box.

[al] Albacore intercepts.

[ax] Search. Axis=8, Allied=6. Nobody finds.

[ax] The Italian could, but elect not to initiate in the East Med.
The allies aren't afforded the opportunity to try.

[ax] Strategic bombing. Do the allies wish to fly CAP?

[al] No CAP

[ax] Strategic Bombing. Germany x 2. (1) Paris, (2) Lyons.

[ax] (1) 1 plane w/2 factors (modified) vs Paris=8+1=9. French lose 1 PP.

[ax] (2) 1 plane w/1 factor (modified) vs Lyons=9+1=10. French lose 1 PP (2 total).

[ax] Ground Strikes. None.

[ax] Rail.
Japan - none.
Italy x 1. Milan MIL. Milan to Taranto.
Germany x 3.
(1) 7-2 MIL. Berlin to Essen.
(2) 6-3 inf. Pozan to Saarbrucken, Germany.
(3) 5-3 inf. Krakow to Karlsruhe, Germany.

[ax] German land moves. Various moves, mostly moving units from east to west. Nothing of consequence to report.

[ax] Italian land moves (combine) x 2.
(1) East Africa. X inf captures Khartoum, capital of Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.
(2) Garrison on TRS in East Med disembarks to Malta.

[ax] Japanese land moves. Various moves in China.
Nothing surprising I think.

[ax] Japan disembarks 2 MILs in China Sea to Canton.

[ax] Land Combat. None.

[ax] Air Rebase. Germany x 2.
(1) He 112 5-range fighter. Hanover to Ancona, Italy.
(2) He 111 H-3. Dresden to Saarbrucken, Germany.

[ax] Air Rebase. Italy x 1. CR-42 FTR2. Cassino, Italy to Malta.

[ax] Air rebase. Japan. None.

[ax] End of axis impulse #7. Turn sent.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by rkr1958 -- 1/4/2020 9:57:32 PM >

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Ronnie

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Post #: 90
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