Die rolls . . . Random?

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Die rolls . . . Random?

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All Forums >> [Current Games From Matrix.] >> [World War II] >> Lock ‘n Load: Heroes of Stalingrad >> Die rolls . . . Random?

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Die rolls . . . Random? - 1/13/2020 12:12:36 AM

dwbennett

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/29/2012
Status: offline

After a mouse button screw up where I "moved" instead of "fired", I decided to restart the turn to "fix" the screwup. The mistake didn't happen that far into the new turn so I knew what I'd done in the impulse(s) before the mistake and did the same attack(s) in the reload. I was somewhat surprised that the very same results happened with, it seemed, the same die rolls. I carried on and didn't think much of it but the same thing appeared to happen in a later game.

So I decided to to a quick check by replaying a set of impulses the exact same way and video record the action so I could review it. Results: The sixteen die rolls were exactly the same in both play throughs.

I'd have to do a bunch more tests to confirm this but it doesn't seem, to me at any rate, that the die rolls are "random" but are a something else. I guess it could be that the program uses some sort of look-up table in a set order.

Anyway, I've seen the same thing in both the base game and in mod games so it is something in the core of the game.

Has anyone else seen this or is this one of those commonly known things that I've taken a long time to figure out?

Thanks and take care,

_____________________________

Don Bennett
Evanston, WY

Post #: 1

RE: Die rolls . . . Random? - 1/13/2020 10:13:28 AM

CHINCHIN

Posts: 416
Joined: 9/2/2012
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So is. If you reload and repeat the same action, the same results are given.

(in reply to dwbennett)

Post #: 2

RE: Die rolls . . . Random? - 1/13/2020 1:45:02 PM

dwbennett

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/29/2012
Status: offline

Yes, sir. Exactly the same results of the exact same attacks, be they mine or the AI's. I'm going to do another test today and try to double the number of die rolls and see what happens. I'll report back with the results.

Take care,

_____________________________

Don Bennett
Evanston, WY

(in reply to CHINCHIN)

Post #: 3

RE: Die rolls . . . Random? - 1/13/2020 3:56:53 PM

dwbennett

Posts: 37
Joined: 1/29/2012
Status: offline

Ok, I just ran through a series of attacks in a scenario, video recorded it, watched the recording and wrote down the exact series of attacks, etc. with who attacked who, the hex numbers, die rolls, etc., so I could do the exact same thing in another run through of the scenario. I did the second run through (and video recorded it also) and checked the die rolls of the exact same series of attacks. The results, 53 die rolls, were exactly the same (which I verified again when I review the second recording).

After reviewing some statistical blogs (I took other math courses instead of statistics in college), the chance of rolling a certain number on a six-sided fair dice is 1/6 or 0.16667. That's the same probability each time the dice is rolled. I'm going to take a flier here and say that the probability of the same results happening (i.e., the same number on consecutive rolls) when two sets of rolls are compared with a six-sided dice is 1/(0.16667)^n where n is the number of rolls in the series.

In other words, if I rolled the dice six times and got, consecutively, 6,6,4,3,4,5 (that was one AI attack in the scenario) and then rolled the dice six more times and got 6,6,4,3,4,5 that would be a 1/(0.16667)^6 or 0.00002143 or 1 in 46,656 times occurrence. The chance of the same numbers coming up in to series of 53 is, as we used to say in engineering class when we didn't have time in class to calculate it, a BIG number.

Even if my guess at the math is incorrect, I'm still saying that the dice rolls are not random. Is this a bad thing? Well, not really in one sense as if you ended up doing the mistake I did and want to get back the exact same state prior to your screw up then this is great. However, if you're thinking that the game has a truly randomness to it, you are mistaken; at least in my opinion. I could be wrong but doubt it from my work.

Anyway, take care and enjoy the game.

_____________________________

Don Bennett
Evanston, WY

(in reply to dwbennett)

Post #: 4

RE: Die rolls . . . Random? - 1/13/2020 6:28:41 PM

asl3d

Posts: 6531
Joined: 2/6/2017
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Hi Don Bennett,

I absolutely agree with what you say. I'm convinced that random events, either with the roll of two dice (DR) or a single dice (dr), follow a sequence of a pre-established "random" table.

By attempt to understand it, it's clear that game programmers could have used a basic function such as "randomizer" or any other. If they have not done so, it may be to avoid the temptation of the players to "roll back" in the game, trusting that an unlikely result, such as DR = 6-6 or DR = 1-1, does not occur again. That's, programmers want to dissuade us from "roll back" in the hope that random will be more favorable to us now. In other words, if that we want to change the course of events we will have to make something more ...

This reminds me of a principle that ASL/SL designers introduced many years ago. The idea was that you could not have "roll back" when a game phase has already been overcome. If we have misapplied a rule, or we have forgotten to apply a drm to the DR, it's no longer possible to roll back in the game.

Also, in chess, there is the principle of "piece touched is piece played."

By the way, as I usually say to new friends who participate in this forum, "welcome to the ruins of Stalingrad."

_____________________________

Semper fidelis

(in reply to dwbennett)

Post #: 5