aspqrz02
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Joined: 7/20/2004
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I'm pretty sure that if the UK invades Portugal there is a pro-Axis bonus for Spanish entry as a German Minor.
This is pretty standard for *UK* invasions of Minors, even when historically inappropriate, but there seem to be no penalties for *German* invasions of Minors.
For example, if the UK invades Norway, Sweden gets a +10 bonus to their entry as an Axis Minor ... bzzzt ... rubbish! Sweden played a careful game during the war to avoid offending Germany while remaining as friendly as possible with the Allies, and, as soon as it was obvious to them that the Allies were winning (mid- to late-43 ish) they became markedly less helpful to the Axis in the vital trade in Iron Ore etc ... and in mid 1944 they became even less helpful, as Germany had no capacity to do much to them at that point.
IF the Allies invade Norway, then Sweden is NOT likely to become more pro-Axis ... not even if the Allied invasion ultimately fails. And if it SUCCEEDS, then they are likely to become pro-Allied, at least as far as stopping all trade with German in return for trade with the Allies (which is what they really wanted, historically ... trade with Germany was done mainly to keep the Nazis from invading).
Likewise, according to scripted events, Spain and Turkey are more likely to get a bonus to entry as Axis Minors in the event of a UK invasion of Norway.
Neither is realistic or, indeed, likely.
Franco was a bastard, but not a fool. There's a reason he demanded such a high price in terms of supplies from Germany at Hendaye ... Spain was gutted. The Civil War was, what, barely two years over and her economy and agricultural sector were in a parlous state. She relied on imports of food, fuel and industrial goods from the Allies to survive. And Germany didn't have the goods to spare to make up for their loss (and the Allies kept Franco on a short leash to prevent him cross-transferring allied goods to Germany).
So, no, it will take more than an Allied invasion of Norway to get Franco more likely to go active. And if the invasion is *successful* he is actually more likely to cut ties with Germany, though probably not ally with the Allies (they'd find him as obnoxious as he would find them untrustworthy for his version of Fascism).
Turkey is much the same. There is no percentage in Turkey getting interested in the UK invading Norway. And, of course, something most people don't know, Ataturk (who the Turks thought somewhat highly of) had seen the clouds of war gathering before he died and warned, specifically, the leadership NOT TO BACK GERMANY.
In both cases I would think that the only things that would trigger Spanish or Turkish active Axis status would be Germany defeating Russia ... which makes their involvement moot.
Given the strong US anti-interventionist stance prior to 1940-ish (the OHIO Plan largely signals the end of that, mid 1940) there is little chance of Axis invasions of anyone triggering actual intervention before late 1940 ... and even then it would have to be low. After all, even Barbarossa didn't trigger US involvement.
If you want unrealistic chances of Spain, Sweden or Turkey becoming Axis Minors, then you really should have unrealistic chances of the US going active sooner as well.
Phil McGregor
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Author, Space Opera (FGU); RBB #1 (FASA); Road to Armageddon; Farm, Forge and Steam; Orbis Mundi; Displaced (PGD) ---------------------------------------------- Email: aspqrz@tpg.com.au |
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