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T48 - moving along the Seine

 
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T48 - moving along the Seine - 2/5/2020 7:18:32 AM   
loki100


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T48 – 27 May 1944

Just keeping my head above water with the VP situation.



Bombing pattern remains predictable. One block of 8 AAF goes for the Hamburg region, BC (back to night operations) goes for the Baltic and 15 AAF goes for Munich sector.

Everything else is some version of tactical operations. The B-17s are moved from transport bombing to make things very uncomfortable for some ground targets. I also spotted those damn bombers last turn, if they are still there, some won't be operational next week.

Other change is I now have some Pzrs spotted, so send in the Hurricane IV with their 40mm machine guns.

Air losses, came out well ahead on A2A, and guessed right about the German bombers. Reports of around 60 blown up on their bases.

Strategic bombing mostly seems to have been effective.



Interdiction charts, 9 AAF delivered enough west of the Seine, not much over the main German foces but then that was mostly direct unit bombing.



The Hurricane IV flew into scary levels of flak, but disrupted a lot of that German Pzr division, one typical attack.



Harris is of course very annoyed that there is now clear evidence that the Lancaster has a valuable role in bombing airbases.



Quick shift to Italy. Letting 5 Army have a rest after the recent battles but both 7 and 8 Armies make some small gains on their respective flanks.



So France, first attempt to break out provoked a very serious commitment of Pzrs. Good thing is the US formations stopped early and my airpower landed some useful damage. A second attack was much the same pattern, hope is that this starts to exhaust their reserves.

To put this comment into context, on T47, 2 Pzr intervened with an effective CV of 10.2, this turn after the tender attentions of the Hurricanes its down to 5.8. Its going to have to pull back to refit soon. 12 SS Pzr is down from 12.8 to 9.5 (and 7.4 in the second battle for that hex).

As in WiTE2 you can overload even a very strong German defensive set up but the differences are obvious. The allied armies are not configured for Soviet levels of combat tempo, but the Soviets lack the airpower that can mean the German player needs to make some careful judgements about when to pull back, leave it too late and you are locked down by interdiction. Clearly we are nowhere near that point yet.



Reward for that was the British cleared out a hex with no intervention (those units had also been bombed 27 times by B-17s – which probably explains the complete collapse).



At the moment I can use the Seine to protect my flank which means I can push into smaller gaps than I might want to risk with at least 4 Pzr divisions already detected and I suspect there are more.

Brought in the British 52 Airlanding division to shore up my eastern flank, as well as more tanks and infantry.

One more hex and I avoid the beachhead penalty.



Ground losses for the turn – surprised I am ahead but they lost a lot to the bombing.



Reasonably content with France. The Pzrs can't win many more battles like that before they need to rest. My low levels of interdiction are a bit of a problem, but then I am ok to see what seems to be 2 Pzr Corps committed. If I can time this right, their retreat will be very uncomfortable.

Also, as noted above, for the moment, the Seine is a very useful flank protection.

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Post #: 91
T49 - embracing Dr. Pangloss - 2/6/2020 5:58:06 AM   
loki100


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T49 – 3 June 1944

Clear ground, clear skies – could have been a good turn to invade? Upgrade 2 of the landing beaches to Mulberries (level 4 ports, so much more supply can now be landed).

VP holding up (+6) despite some V-weapon pts lost (remember they double now I've invaded).

Air war, some attacks in Germany, shift the focus of the tactical air back to mostly interdiction, heavier bombers strike specific targets. Some isolated raids on possible v-weapon sites that might have repaired. Tactical missions focussed on the transport links between the Seine and the Somme.

The limited strategic bombing (Cologne, Bremen-Hamburg and Munich-Ulm) all reported good results and no real fighter opposition

In France, the heavier bombers hit at least 2 Panzer divisions heavily (something like 15 destroyed tanks and 60 or more disrupted/damaged). Careful study of the results suggests that this disrupted the 20+ Tigers that 12SS Pzr possessed, a useful gap in their in-turn combat power.

At least one other stack under #9 interdiction, so want to see if I can make that intervene (=movement).



In Italy, the Germans have a new tactic. Clearly they are telling their Italian allies to stand outside and wave at the American bombers while the Germans hide in their bunkers?



Italy, 8 Army regained the ground lost in a counter-attack and cleared the supply lines to its spearhead, 5 and 7 managed a small breakthrough.



Opening attempt to clear Le Havre fails in heavy fighting.




Equally heavy fighting during the second attack, but this time the German fortifications are badly damaged.



US 1 Army attacks. Oddly this couldn't have gone better if I had chosen the German reaction. 11 Pzr was the unit sat under the #9 interdiction, so around 50% of its armour disrupted.



Second attack lures 12 SS into playing in the open. Thats a decent cull of its tanks [1]



XXX Corps has a go, and again its 12 SS that intervenes (along with a Pzr Gr division)



So no gains in France, but some damage to the Germans (and to me), now its a case of hoping that the interdiction levels start to bite as they try to reinforce.



I somehow suspect those losses will put my VP score into the negative.



Anyway time for another random image. Part of one of the Mulberry harbours being tested in the Solway Firth:



[1] I am taking a rather panglossian view of these results.

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Post #: 92
T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 6:03:33 AM   
loki100


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T50 – 10 June 1944

Ok, this was a surprise, even worse my tactic of massive pre-attack bombing was turned on me. Annoyingly the Spitfires I had deployed in France and left on auto-intercept only intervened a couple of times.



and this worse – the division was on ships, so displaced [1]



VP situation fairly predictable



After a bit of thinking cancelled all bombing over the Reich, both France and Italy offer more immediate targets. Basically all the level bombers are doing unit attack missions on fully detected targets, the tactical bombers are either on GS or interdiction missions.


So lets deal with the simple stuff. Italy. The Germans shifted their reserves to contain the offensive on the west, so 8 Army, preceeded by every bomber I have, crossed the Marechhia and reached the outskirts of Forli. 7 Army makes more gains as the Germans try to cover the line.

5 Army attacked at Pistoia with the expectation of failing. The attack triggered HG into a reserve reaction, so less MP if it is now going east to deal with the 8 Army breakout.



Took 3 attacks but Le Havre fell. An attempt to make gains on the east edge failed but XXX Corps sealed the breach.



It was tempting to leave the FJ regiment at Fecamp for next turn, but decided I wanted as much freedom of movement as I can manage so routed it out.



Very heavy losses, some optimism to both see so many German tanks and that they are digging deep into their stocks of captured French tanks from 1940. I presume that was mostly the reserve Pzr division.

Again, while not many Tiger's actually destroyed, none actually got into action as they all seemed to have been disrupted in the bombing raids.



Nex turn's weather, clear in France, light rain in Italy.

[1] So lets enumerate the mistakes. The basic one was to land a US armoured division with no capacity to unload (it would have been perfectly safe at sea given my naval control). That reduced my spare slots from 3 across the bridgehead to 2.

The German attack on the US infantry is typical of the risks of not using Normandy – there hexes are harder to take but secure once you do.

2 of the retreating divisions fell back onto vacant slots, the last routed to the UK as (ahem) no vacant slot.

To make this worse, that beach hex was the US armour (still playing on their ships) and 2 HQ, So when the FJ did a hasty attack the armour displaced and the now unprotected HQs also went to the UK.

If I'd done as I should (ie left the 3 vacant slots), I'd have lost a single hex -even a battered US Inf division would have held the beachhead, esp with all the TF naval support.

Very useful reminder that small details matter in this game.

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Post #: 93
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 6:28:58 PM   
HermanGraf

 

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Fun side note: Americans often mistakenly identified P4s as Tiger tanks. The American fear of Tiger tanks was almost as fake as the boogie man! In fact, Americans NEVER faced the Tiger tank on the Western front. Tiger tanks were deployed only to combat the British and Canadians near Caen. The only time an American force encountered a tiger tank, was when an advanced recon detachment ran into a train carrying tiger tanks to another front. The Americans quickly killed the crews trying to scramble to the tanks and the rest retreated.

Please, fact check me :)

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Post #: 94
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 7:09:59 PM   
JeffroK


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quote:

ORIGINAL: HermanGraf

Fun side note: Americans often mistakenly identified P4s as Tiger tanks. The American fear of Tiger tanks was almost as fake as the boogie man! In fact, Americans NEVER faced the Tiger tank on the Western front. Tiger tanks were deployed only to combat the British and Canadians near Caen. The only time an American force encountered a tiger tank, was when an advanced recon detachment ran into a train carrying tiger tanks to another front. The Americans quickly killed the crews trying to scramble to the tanks and the rest retreated.

Please, fact check me :)

Just like every British fighter was claimed to be a Spitfire and every Japanese fighter a "Zeke".
You might want to check your claim about the US Army v Tiger, I'll check some info about North Africa, Sicily, Italy, Ardennes etc

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RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 7:20:46 PM   
John B.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK


quote:

ORIGINAL: HermanGraf

Fun side note: Americans often mistakenly identified P4s as Tiger tanks. The American fear of Tiger tanks was almost as fake as the boogie man! In fact, Americans NEVER faced the Tiger tank on the Western front. Tiger tanks were deployed only to combat the British and Canadians near Caen. The only time an American force encountered a tiger tank, was when an advanced recon detachment ran into a train carrying tiger tanks to another front. The Americans quickly killed the crews trying to scramble to the tanks and the rest retreated.

Please, fact check me :)

Just like every British fighter was claimed to be a Spitfire and every Japanese fighter a "Zeke".
You might want to check your claim about the US Army v Tiger, I'll check some info about North Africa, Sicily, Italy, Ardennes etc

It says here that Tigers fought American tanks in Tunisia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501st_Heavy_Panzer_Battalion

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Post #: 96
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 7:47:28 PM   
JeffroK


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Plus at Anzio, Northern Italy, Ardennes and I'm sure the German plains.

Maybe, the OP means in Normandy, where the vast bulk of German armour faced the British/Canadian front ( but some Tigers were in the Falaise Gap where they may have face US Troops.

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Post #: 97
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 8:19:47 PM   
John B.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK

Plus at Anzio, Northern Italy, Ardennes and I'm sure the German plains.

Maybe, the OP means in Normandy, where the vast bulk of German armour faced the British/Canadian front ( but some Tigers were in the Falaise Gap where they may have face US Troops.

Plus don't forget Oddball at the battle of Clermont. :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly%27s_Heroes

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Post #: 98
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 9:46:21 PM   
bomccarthy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

Ok, this was a surprise, even worse my tactic of massive pre-attack bombing was turned on me. Annoyingly the Spitfires I had deployed in France and left on auto-intercept only intervened a couple of times.



I guess because I have been playing WITP:AE for so long, I always fly "heavily stocked" AS directives over invasion sites for as long as my forces are attempting to breakout. This includes multiple directives that cover the beaches and the perimeter, as well as the Channel vicinity (when dealing with northern France). I use the fighters from 8th and 9th AF, as well as Fighter Command and 2d TAF

I actually borrowed this tactic from the real-life Allies - 8th AF fighters "CAP'd" the beaches for the entire week after the invasion, while 9th AF fighters flew CAP for more than a month; this was in addition to Fighter Command and 2d TAF CAP over the beach and the Channel approaches; IIRC, FAA Hellcats "CAP'd" the northern part of the Channel, near Dover and Calais. The result was enormous Luftwaffe losses in fighters and bombers over Normandy throughout the months of June and July (yes, the Luftwaffe did attempt numerous strike missions against the Allied ground forces during those months - they just couldn't get past the mass of Allied fighters).

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Post #: 99
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/7/2020 10:00:17 PM   
bomccarthy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffroK


quote:

ORIGINAL: HermanGraf

Fun side note: Americans often mistakenly identified P4s as Tiger tanks. The American fear of Tiger tanks was almost as fake as the boogie man! In fact, Americans NEVER faced the Tiger tank on the Western front. Tiger tanks were deployed only to combat the British and Canadians near Caen. The only time an American force encountered a tiger tank, was when an advanced recon detachment ran into a train carrying tiger tanks to another front. The Americans quickly killed the crews trying to scramble to the tanks and the rest retreated.

Please, fact check me :)

Just like every British fighter was claimed to be a Spitfire and every Japanese fighter a "Zeke".
You might want to check your claim about the US Army v Tiger, I'll check some info about North Africa, Sicily, Italy, Ardennes etc


Search the Chieftain's Hatch on Youtube and World of Tanks website - Nicholas Moran has produced a treasure trove of research, "papers", and "lectures" on the Sherman and the Tiger (plus, he is one of the best non-actor presenters on Youtube). I seem to recall from one of his videos that the Western Allied Shermans fought Tigers in less than 10 battles in northwest Europe. Interestingly, his research of US Army archived documents showed that US Sherman tank crews suffered the lowest combat fatality rate of any country in the war.

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RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/8/2020 12:03:00 AM   
HermanGraf

 

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I misspoke, I did mean in France. Tigers were mistaken very often by Americans due to their fear of them in previous theatres. But yes, in France the only time the Americans ran into Tiger tanks was in that incident i described. If you believed certain accounts and after action reports, you would think there were 10,000 tigers deployed in France.

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RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/8/2020 7:42:20 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bomccarthy


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

Ok, this was a surprise, even worse my tactic of massive pre-attack bombing was turned on me. Annoyingly the Spitfires I had deployed in France and left on auto-intercept only intervened a couple of times.



I guess because I have been playing WITP:AE for so long, I always fly "heavily stocked" AS directives over invasion sites for as long as my forces are attempting to breakout. This includes multiple directives that cover the beaches and the perimeter, as well as the Channel vicinity (when dealing with northern France). I use the fighters from 8th and 9th AF, as well as Fighter Command and 2d TAF

I actually borrowed this tactic from the real-life Allies - 8th AF fighters "CAP'd" the beaches for the entire week after the invasion, while 9th AF fighters flew CAP for more than a month; this was in addition to Fighter Command and 2d TAF CAP over the beach and the Channel approaches; IIRC, FAA Hellcats "CAP'd" the northern part of the Channel, near Dover and Calais. The result was enormous Luftwaffe losses in fighters and bombers over Normandy throughout the months of June and July (yes, the Luftwaffe did attempt numerous strike missions against the Allied ground forces during those months - they just couldn't get past the mass of Allied fighters).


I actually had that element set in place, but the AS was one hex back as my focus was the sealanes. But I'd put 6 Spitfire formations into the landing airbases to supply this sort of auto-intercept. The couple of intercepts saw 10-15 German bombers shot down and I doubt those bombers were much use the next week due to low morale.

Against the AI you can pretty much convert every fighter to FB, in PBEM you still need a good stock of FB-F.

What I didn't mention was that to generate the air power for my riposte, 8 AAF's fighters were put into FB mode to deliver just a few more bombs (as 9 and TA were exhausted)

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Post #: 102
RE: T50 - Dr Pangloss was clearly a pessimist - 2/8/2020 7:46:04 AM   
loki100


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re Tigers

British statisticians worked out a completely new estimating method to work out how many there were. Its still used today when you have a data sequence with gaps and you want to either estimate the population or fill in the gaps to allow other analyses.

So they took Soviet reports of serial numbers of knocked out/captured stuff, plus Tunisia and the few that had been destroyed in Italy. They used this to estimate how many the Germans had just before D-Day and their likely rate of production and thus potential numbers by future dates. Post war checking indicated that they had overestimated by about 10.

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T51 - Italy is the place to be - 2/8/2020 7:47:28 AM   
loki100


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T51 – 17 June 1944

Given all that happened last turn – not too bad.



So given all that, in France happy to stop operations, let both ground units and the airforce recover.
Some tactical missions in Italy – mainly just in case there are opportunities to exploit.

Some low level interdiction and transport attacks. Both BF and 8 AAF go back to the Reich (I feel the locals have missed us) and 15 AAF over the Alps.

Bomber Command heavily hit Frankfurt, 8 US ran into heavy fighter resistance over the Baltic but hopefully reduced the V-weapon production. 15 US was under-escorted over Styr but still did a lot of damage to the Pzr IV production (hopefully).

Overall much heavier A2A losses than happened in May, but I was resting a lot of escort formations.



In Italy, 5 Army finally cleared out Pistoia and 8 Army took Ravenna – no point trying to bypass this.



No doubt the front will now stagnate on the Montano, especially with Ravenna and Forli as strong points. But next breakout is then into the Po valley.



Losses much more under control.



But strategic bombing with weaker escort groups led to relatively high air losses.



Order of Battle – ground:



And distribution of the air forces.



Forecast of clear weather next turn, so hopefully a week off will be rewarded.



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T52 - Bashing my way to freedom? - 2/9/2020 7:05:00 AM   
loki100


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T52 - 24 June 1944

The relative quiet of last turn improved my VP situation.



So have enough tactical air for France and the focus becomes as much interdiction as direct attacks.

Most of 8, 15 AAF and BC go back to the Reich. This time all are attacking tank production, 8 AAF sends its B-17s to Magdeburg (Pzr IV), Liberators to Nuremberg (Pzr V), 15 AAF Steyr (mostly Pzr IV) and BC Kessel (Tigers).

Rest of 15 AAF sees if I can make some more gains in Italy with a massive attack on the Montano positions.

Good thing was reverting to proper escorts and won the A2A battles overwhelmingly shooting down 50 fighters for no losses.

One unexpected outcome from the recon missions, seems as if a lot of German fighters are lurking around N France. Since they didn't engage with my AS I assume something is planned for next turn.

Most of the tank raids hit other targets, but 8 AAF reported a lot of damage at Nuremberg



As did 15 AAF at Steyr. Possibly by now the most bombed city in the Reich.



In Italy, 8A failed to clear the Montano but 5A took Prato giving me control over all the N Tuscan cities.



Massive attack by all of US 1 Army gets me off the beaches at the eastern end of the landing zone. Those units were also massively bombed before and then GS took out a lot more of their combat elements.



Not to be outdone, 2 British Army makes some gains along the Seine, but this time facing major German responses. That'll put a dent in my VP score next turn.




Anyway, now have space behind the lines so landed a new set of units, can start to rotate for refit which will help. The partisan attacks, linked with my interdiction, all help marginally hamper resupply.

Almost all my TF back in the UK waiting for the next round of operations.




Losses, the Wehrmacht must really like its 1940 French tanks. Trying, if I can, to slowly weaken the Pzrs and limit their ability to replace losses – hence the strategic bombing focus.



Air losses. Out of my 240 FB/Tac B, 140 were some sort of Hurricane, I'm using these for the interdiction missions along with the Mosquitos (of which I only lost 8). As I can, I'll swap some of these formations over as the Mosquitos seem both more robust and much better range.



We've not had a random image for a few turns, elements of Gds Armoured moving up to the front:



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RE: T52 - Bashing my way to freedom? - 2/10/2020 5:19:21 AM   
GloriousRuse

 

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A German Interlude: The Atlantic Wall Crumbles

With the beachhead and initial slugging phases of the invasion drawing to a close, It seems like time for another German review. As always, a caveated warning that I am the far less experienced player here, so I may lead you in a wrong direction.

Big Thoughts

I decided at the end of the day that while the German player can’t really make the Allied player do anything in terms of invasion choices – they can shove it down your throat anywhere, really – he might be able to induce some confusion and misdirection to help shape the allied decision. To that end, I decided I really wanted to make Calais less palatable; Loki has proven very good at grinding offensives, and I did not want to see him make one hex a turn all the way to the west wall by September. If he could be convinced to land further west, so much the better. In my perfect world he would have landed in Brittany and then started to march east in mid June. Alas it was not to be.

In terms of where he was really going to go, my money was on Calais (he’s been very bold this game so far, and as I said, is quite good at grinding out defensive lines), then Normandy for its nice beach set up, with an early landing in Brittany to try for a mobile war from the get go as number three. You’ll notice he did not land in any of those. So…number four of four. Which meant he landed in my most lightly defended “main” sector. Brittany had far less troops, mostly as an enticement…

To Defend the Beaches – Or Not

A quick review of the AARs around here shows that a regiment on the beaches gets blown into touch when two divisions come ashore under a cloud of bombers and naval gunfire. So it’s the line behind the beaches that is really the first containment wave. Additionally, strong airborne drops inland allow the allies to really open up the invasion in the first weeks, so discouraging them is a plus.

The balance is the elusive sugarplum fairy that says “but don’t you want to kill them when they come ashore? When better? Wouldn’t breaking just one landing be a major victory?” As I learned, the sugarplum fairy is a feckless liar.

Hoping to have the best of both worlds, I decided that I would create a rear line of regiments – if nothing else they should help deter airborne drops, and dig the first fortifications BEFORE the battle began. And then create Division strong points on every second or third linked beach (plus some single points in Calais). These strongpoints wouldn’t deploy until April in order to leave him in confusion for as long as possible about the defensive layout. You would have to ask Loki if it caused any confusion or was simply irrelevant.

The idea of course was he would get some beaches for free, but their adjacent beaches might have a real chance of breaking a landing and thereby chopping up the invasion zones. It looked like this moments before the invasion:



Suffice to say, that did not work. It turns out that divisions on beaches get counted as regiments for holding terrain unless in a port…so a hold is unlikely. Whoops. It also turns out that an airborne division jumping in on a garrison regiment that has been bombed to pieces will win. Double whoops.

So my initial clever plan should probably have been reversed. Divisions in the rear to contain and thwart airborne drops, with regiments shuffled up front to either disrupt landings or simply add chaos to the picture. I’m not convinced that trying to hold the enemy at the beaches is viable at all (the Japanese came to the same conclusion I think), in which case you could really get started on digging containment lines twenty miles deep in each sector…

As for armor, while Italy forces the piece mealing of panzergrenadiers based on force flow, France has a real chance for it to be used en masse, and I didn’t want to piss that away by leaving a handful of regiments in each sector. I assembled the panzers near Amiens and Dreux to ensure I could get a strong corps to any sector the week of the landing, but that they would not be shredded by the opening air offensive. Calais was the only exception, where the absolute need to stop a rapid expansion led me to put two panzer divisions just behind the most likely landing sites. I guess the alternative would be to weight two sectors heavily, at the risk of aerial attrition and extra march delays if you guess wrong.

The Luftwaffe Strike!

I really did not want Loki landing in May. I figured if he could just land in June, I had a chance in any sector but Britanny to keep his beachhead small enough for the VPs. As it was, it was only the last move in June that put my dreams out of commission.

To help that thought process along, I waited until the anticpated invasion turn and set level bombers to fly during his airphase for naval interdiction. I hoped he would go "ah, cra, I don't want to run D-Day through neutral seas and middling interdiction, especially not with bad weather coming up! I'll just take this turn to knock the crap out of the LW and invade later!"

You may notice theme here: it didn't work.

I like to think it disrupted and attrited the landing forces a little bit, but casualty counts suggest it was worth a few thousand men at most. In hindsight, while clever-ish, having the bombers fly during the WA air phase meant Loki would have completely tipped his hand already...which would kill any chance of him holding off the invasion.

< Message edited by GloriousRuse -- 2/10/2020 5:25:24 AM >

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Post #: 106
RE: T52 - Bashing my way to freedom? - 2/10/2020 8:39:57 AM   
loki100


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re the planning for D-Day.

My view is most of the game, both sides are making decisions based on what the other has done/estimated capacity/plans etc. In effect, to draw on my PhD (hah - I always like a discussion about framing of decisions), we share the decision space. Its not a perfect overlap but if you did a venn diagram you'd find a lot of overlap.

Pre France is different. GR has done a good job on his thinking and I'd not contest any of it. You have to solve the unsolvable and come up with a solution to the problem that the Germans never really addressed - how to get sufficient armour into a sector (given the inevitable attention of the allied airforces) in time to make a difference. A central reserve gives you flexibility but you are (by definition) nowhere important, picking an invasion site can pay off or fail big time.

On the other hand the Allies need to pick a landing set by the start of 1944. You can delay till late Jan but its nice to get a couple of hexes up around 90.

So the specifics of how the Germans are solving their part of the problem is irrelevant. And in reverse, they have to come up with their solution blind to my plans.

In effect, while the two decisions will collide, in the planning phase they are mutually independent.

Both sides know any landing anywhere will not be shifted so that issue can be put to one side. There is a variable around losses/VP but that comes from what I'd call the tactical phase. Clearly there is a major variable in how to move off the beaches - with each feasible zone giving very different dynamics.

So at the strategic phase of the decision I don't care what the Germans do, even if its clear they have guessed right, I'm not going to shift my plan. At the tactical phase, I'll pay close attention (in effect our venn diagrams coincide again), so as an eg I knew I had to put one para division onto an occupied hex, I spent a few turns doing my best to work out what was there and used pre-invasion bombing to both reduce the effectiveness and confirm it was a regiment (I did this in two hexes as an insurance against a division being swapped in).

< Message edited by loki100 -- 2/10/2020 8:40:25 AM >


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T53 - the first mention of the Clash - 2/10/2020 8:45:07 AM   
loki100


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T53 – 1 July 1944

New bombing multipliers, no longer offsets my ground losses but the city VP helps a bit.



Even so, keep up the strategic bombing but am now more interested in specific targets rather than those that carry VP. BC goes back for manpower and HI (ie some VP collection) over the Ruhr and also usefully hits industry and v-weapon production at Hannover.

8 AAF hit the Magdeburg sector again, but this time seemed to mostly take out HI, the one time the Luftwaffe intervened it was quickly dispatched.



15 AAF got bored hitting Steyr so went for something new ... May as well reduce the production of those damn things.



Recon and some airbase bombing indicates the Luftwaffe has gone to hide in the south of France. In fact there is a lot of the German army sunbathing there while their colleagues in Italy and N France (not to mention the Soviet Union) do the hard stuff.

Now I don't mind this. The units I have set aside for S France are not needed and I have no intention of serious fighting in that sector. Marseilles is critical for the end game supply (second only to Antwerp) but that only has an effect once you are on the German border.

In N France, found something new for my bombers to target. Second attack succeeeded, leading to the first appearance of the armoured mouse as the British exploited [1].

Heavy losses but that also removed one Pzr division from the effective defensive set up.



Couldn't exploit my last gains but that disrupted the German HQ network. The spearhead can be driven back, I doubt the 2 supporting stacks can be as they are configured to be robust.



Equally at least on the east side I have a lot of protection from interdiction.



So my losses remain high as I eat into my VP store.



Which produces one of those moments where the Axis player has a real strategic choice.

In the immortal words of Mick Jones 'should I stay or should I go'?



For the moment, I have 2 advantages heading my way. German NM goes to 60 and while it'll take a while to feed through, this will further weaken any defence based on German infantry (or even worse LW formations).

Second I have now entered the second French occupation zone. Now that frees up every German unit but if I get 10 hexes there then the partisan rules change. Hexes some distance from axis forces start to flip to my control – that can seriously affect links between SE and SW France and the Reich.

So as noted above, S France can wait and it may be in my interest to pause in Italy. The remaining targets are some distance and its hard to justify the VP expenditure to get to them.

[1] – I came up with the idea of an 'armoured mouse' in a very old AAR vs Smokindave (first seen in post 51). The idea is to stuff one of the better British armoured divisions full of RTR formations (or the Gds armoured brigades). It has a defensive cv of 30+ even in clear terrain. So it moves into an exposed hex. The Germans could drive it back but it would take a massive commitment. Just the thing when the fighting is around single hex gains in this sort of situation.

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RE: T48 - moving along the Seine - 2/11/2020 3:35:48 AM   
GloriousRuse

 

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In our e-mail chat, Loki made a comment on the grim cost of slowly bleeding out the panzers. This led me to do a touch of VERY informal research into WWII losses versus our game. While there’s a whole host of wounded and NBI that float between the game definition of “disabled” and “disrupted, return next turn” losses, we can extrapolate from the allied losses so far that for every KIA there should be .949 disabled by WitW terms. Earlier Italy figures would change the ratio to 1.15 disabled per KIA. We’ll very scientifically decided to split it down the middle and call it 1.05 disabled per KIA.

The real ITO between Husky and the end caused ~70k allied KIA, which would translate to another 73.5k “disabled” in WITW for 143,5k losses. The real cost included a little over 170k more casualties of various types, implying that for every “disabled” you see in WitW there are another 2.4 WIA and serious NBIs that might be counted as casualties on the historical record.

In our game, the eve of D-Day sees 106k KIA and 122k Disabled in the Italian theater. This would translate to another 293k WIA of various sorts, for a little over half a million (521k) casualties so far in Italy alone. About 40% more than the historical allies took in the entire ITO. That said, the historical allies are just beginning the post-Rome operations at this time, whereas Loki is threatening the Po valley – something the historical allies won’t do until April of ’45.

Since D-Day, the numbers have gone up to a total of 184k KIA and 156k Disabled in game. Mostly in France, but there have been a few bloody fights in Italy as well. The cost for 7 weeks from May to July has been 112k more casualties in game - 193k more historical equivalent losses after looking for WIA/NBI. The initial Overlord to Cobra phase is estimated at 75k losses for comparison.

As a side, you’ll also notice much higher ratios of allied KIA as attacks fail and units are driven back, presumably leaving the wounded to their fate. Which explains why the German KIA to disabled ratio is very high.

Still, we are at 714k historical equivalent casualties for the allies. Ground operations from 43-45 cost the real WA roughly 1086k losses.

Our version of the western front is proving to be even bloodier than the actual war and we have yet to make it out of the summer of ’44. The effects on world history after I finally lose are a hypothetical to consider. ‘

Amongst other things, the CW is bleeding disproportionately to the Americans even into ’44, a change to historical trend where an increasingly manpower conservative British Army was only taking about one casualty for every two US ones. In our game the losses are within 1k of each other. The ability of the British Empire to conduct a slow global withdrawal in the post war world may be threatened at the current rate, and many of the former British colonies that generally had good order transitions may look far more like the French model as the remaining British manpower honors NATO commitments.

In contrast, American adventurism is less likely to be curbed, and you might see a more aggressive US political posture in ’45 and around the globe afterwards.


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RE: T48 - moving along the Seine - 2/11/2020 6:33:09 AM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GloriousRuse

...

Amongst other things, the CW is bleeding disproportionately to the Americans even into ’44, a change to historical trend where an increasingly manpower conservative British Army was only taking about one casualty for every two US ones. In our game the losses are within 1k of each other. The ability of the British Empire to conduct a slow global withdrawal in the post war world may be threatened at the current rate, and many of the former British colonies that generally had good order transitions may look far more like the French model as the remaining British manpower honors NATO commitments.

In contrast, American adventurism is less likely to be curbed, and you might see a more aggressive US political posture in ’45 and around the globe afterwards.




this is unintentional but hard to avoid at this stage (well its avoidable by a different overall strategy). My view is at the moment its a case of bashing my way through very large defensive problems. And for that the CW gives you some very useful tools, not least much better SU in the form of the various tank brigades. So a CW stack simply has better hitting power up to about this stage.

Linked to that is the CW formations tend to better morale/exp.

Now things are likely to change. In part I'm going to be able to get the real US advantage into play - artillery and in part as US formations improve with the July NM modifiers. Also there should be a phase of more mobile warfare linked to smaller tussles over some key hexes.

But yes, I'm painfully aware of how this is working out (not the post war demise of the British Empire but in game VP loss)

edit: more generally I may have been testing too much of WiTE2 with that affecting my tactical choices in this game. I know I've done things with deployment of units/logistics that mimic the rules there - not always the best in the context of WiTW.


< Message edited by loki100 -- 2/11/2020 6:38:42 AM >


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T54 - Beating up the FJ - 2/11/2020 6:36:42 AM   
loki100


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T54 – 8 July 1944

Not a surprise that the Germans hit my exposed spearhead. First attack (and losses) were what I expected, their decision to retreat into the centre of the German army less so, leading to a rout.




Carry on spending my VP collection. If I can get to late 1944 with a positive score, that'll do fine.



15 AAF and the B-17s of 8 AAF hit SW Germany, covered by an AS, with the goals of the Me-262 production and places like Stuttgart (trucks and HI). The Liberators go for the tank production at Kassel, BC is split between the Ruhr and Hannover.

In France, one focus is Dieppe, if I can clear that then that is another ready supply source. The B-26s from 8AAF are now being used almost all the time in support of the French operations.

In Italy, testing out some options while I think about what to do next. Tried to bomb the airbase at Bologna and knocked out a few planes – mostly transports.

Overall, the Strategic bombing was incredibly inept, only exception is 15 AAF seemed to have knocked out all the Me-262 production.

Only encounter with the Luftwaffe was around Kassel. If they are running AS at this altitude it might explain why they are missing my bombers.



Shift of focus in Italy, may get La Spezia, at the worst it further stretches the area the Germans need to defend.



In France, US forces retake the ground just lost to counter-attacks.



2 British Army clears out Dieppe, with massive naval gunfire (and a major air offensive). Seems that even the FJ don't want to stand up to that.

Usefully, the port will fully repair for next turn.



Those 2 wins gave me a 3 hex attack and allowed further gains that will be hard for the Germans to challenge.



Ground losses – not a good week for the Panzers.



Air losses.



Bit of digging around, my divisions that have morale of 74 or more (excludes Airborne formations) - this relates to the discussion post above.



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T55 - Bouncy New Zealanders - 2/12/2020 6:02:15 AM   
loki100


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T55 – 15 July 1944

VP situation improves a little, ideally need to get the losses under control – or better balanced.



Strategic Air campaign. Bomber Command went back to concentrating on the Ruhr (for the moment the VP are welcome), 8 AAF had another go at the Tiger production at Kassel (and completely missed it) and the trucks at Mainz (at least they hit this). 15 AAF went for Ploesti, since Stalin is showing no interest in actually advancing.

Looks like the defensive fighters were mostly the Romanians – good to give them something to do before they surrender.



In Italy, the bombing was linked to 5 Army's lunge up the coast.

Cleared the mountain hex interdicting the coastal route (but couldn't actually occupy it) but US armour and the NZ division pushed past La Spezia.

Just to remind the Germans of the threat, 8 Army attacked on the Adriatic coast – more to the point I don't want them moving Hermann out of Ravenna for the moment.



Small shift in the balance of power in France. 2 Pzr divisions and a PzrGr regiment intervened, plus the 2 FJ divisions and got driven back (admittedly after inflicting heavy losses).

The other change is now the US armoured divisions are more effective (especially with the ability to draw done so much more artillery) than their British counterparts.



Also helps that now I am moving along the coast my TF are much more useful.

Allied offensive makes steady gains east.



Usual heavy losses though.



So lets go back to more relevant random pictures. Crew of a British AT gun passing a knocked out Pzr V:





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T56 - helpful partisans - 2/13/2020 5:25:33 AM   
loki100


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T56 – 22 July 1944

So we are past the half way point in the game.

Still shedding VP



Strategic bombing.

BC and 8 AAF's Liberators went for the Ruhr. As above, a small flow of VP is welcome at the moment. 15 AAF went for the Linz-Steyr region (HI and AFV). None of these raids were that effective.

B-17s of 8 AAF went for the V-weapons on the Baltic, provoking some massive A2A fights but also hopefully knocking back any return to production of those damn things.



In Italy, went fishing. Set a small number of maritime patrol planes (used my Italian formations) well escorted to run some missions off S France.and La Spezia. Unfortunately the Luftwaffe didn't come up to play.

Rest of the missions connected with the La Spezia operation.

Main target hex was bombed 20 times and the interdiction was 'railway' (this keeps the secondary interdiction to rail hexes – very handy in Italy where there is little point to putting down interdiction on mountain tops). La Spezia is isolated by sea (the low intensity naval air missions) and its going to be hard to reinforce as the partisans very helpfully blew the train line east of Genoa.

Axis starting to pull back a bit in the centre, means that Florence can now function as a depot.

Happy to let 8 Army rest, in many ways its still the real threat, if it crosses the Montona then there are no real obstacles before Bologna. At this stage, I lack the airpower to sustain two offensives.



France affected by light rain and want to let some formations rest a bit.

French battles can be split into two sectors. As far as possible, tried to rest the CW formations and rely on the US units. A few nasty reserve reactions but I basically got what I wanted.

10 hexes in a second French zone triggers the major partisan uprising. This goes beyond interdiction of rail hexes and starts to see hexes convert to my control. Not going to happen near the main battle zones but can make a mess of German control of SW and SE France.

In this context the key is the hex flips, so if it returns to axis control (most likely) it does with 100% rail damage. So the partisan attacks place 1-2% damage and are easy to repair, these can't. As in S Italy, in the end the Axis rail net just collapses making both supply and unit movement almost impossible.



Which leads us to the second invasion, this time by 3 Army forces. Large commitment of naval air. Mosquitos put down protective interdiction to the east.

This has 2 goals. A lot of armour designed to open up the battle zone (& take advantage of any partisan uprising). I've added most of the US Cavalry groups as they are invaluable if the goal is to convert terrain rather than actually fight – and as a screen for an exposed flank.

Also a lot of infantry, which will get most of the heavier artillery to clear out the Brittany ports – from past experience these really ease the flow of supply if taken and connected early enough. Once the landing is complete, I'll pass these over to 1 Canadian Army to control.

Its also a means to take Cherbourg, which both removes a large v-weapon site and adds another port.

Landings are east and west of St Malo, paratroops will drop behind the town. The units in the town heavily bombed.



My expectation is this will remove any axis units west of the Seine as they try to get out of any possible encirclement.

Not exactly doing well at reducing my casualties but another decent cull of the Pzrs. With some luck should start to gain VP to compensate.



Air losses, the Baltic battles did some damage to the German fighters.



Rare sighting of the destroyed list – mainly as nothing has really happened. I think that German infantry regiment was bombed to the point where it collapsed in the La Spezia fighting.



Weather for next turn is clear skies but light mud in the main combat zone of France.

Random image of the week – a well earned break after blowing up a train line?



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RE: T48 - moving along the Seine - 2/14/2020 12:08:13 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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Just popping in to say how much I'm enjoying this AAR

It's been a long while since I've played WITW, this is tempting me to maybe dip back into one of the scenarios.

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RE: T48 - moving along the Seine - 2/14/2020 5:30:39 AM   
loki100


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good to hear both

must confess I'd forgotten how much fun it is to play, the low unit density and range of potential options makes it hugely enjoyable esp as PBEM

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T57 - mauling St Malo - 2/14/2020 5:33:59 AM   
loki100


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T57 – 29 July 1944

Mentioned that last turn I triggered the more intense French partisan actions. What this does is potentially either generate 30,000 tons of usage in a rail hex or make a hex flip to my control. Mostly these will then revert to axis control as I have no link, but then the rail line is cut. Thats a large bite out of the Rhone valley communication capacity.

Looking around the map, something like 4-5 hexes in SE France must have flipped and there are plenty of others with 30,000 usage (this eats into available rail capacity).



Less good news, still losing VP



The return of the V-weapons to that chart means that 8 AAF concentrates on likely production sites. BC still does the Ruhr (and possibly launch pads), 15 AAF switches over to SW Germany.

BC, this time, claims significant damage as does 15 AAF over Ulm.

8 AAF again runs into heavy fighter cover but the Liberators make up for some indifferent results in recent weeks by taking out both v-weapon and Tiger production.



The other raid on the Baltic region again sees large A2A combat, with heavy German losses.



In France, St Malo quickly falls (helped by the defenders being heavily bombed). To the west, took advantage of the thinning of the German defensive line along the Seine to force a crossing and then exploit with a mix of brigades and French tanks.

In total St Malo, Rennes and Caen liberated, so those will add to the city VP next turn.

Main force made no attacks, a good chance to refit and rest after the recent battles.

Also depends on what the Germans now do, not worth picking up losses if their next move is to disengage. If they stay, then high cv/mp formations may start to make a pocket possible.



In Italy, clearly the Germans don't want me making any more gains, rather a nasty shock.



But not one that was repeated.



Of perhaps more importance, 5 Army has also all but cleared the Appenines as my Franco-Indian corps now gazes across the Po Valley.

I'll take La Spezia and then end the coastal operation.

Also if I recall Hermann's personal tanks are off to play with the Red Army fairly soon.



Ground losses, my plan to reduce my losses is not really working but that is a useful drop compared to recent weeks.

Of course there is a good reason to keep up the tempo at this stage. I need to make gains and good weather tends to favour the attacking side. On the other hand, US and CW formations need to rest to recover damaged elements and shed fatigue.



Air losses.

I think the Germans are no longer using trained pilots for many FB-F/F formations, looking at the average experience rates and their steadily escalating losses – even when, as here, the engagement is very much on their own terrain.





One shift of thinking, I'm now planning on how to stop an easy German escape. So interdiction on the main routes east and several paratroop divisions with drop zones across any likely retreat route.

As in the earlier post, this is maybe the last big decision for an Axis player. Pull out too early and I harvest a lot of city VP and start the fighting from Brussels to the Rhine in say late September.

Stay too long and my ability to bomb from the UK, and relative ease of supply, sets up escalating axis losses and makes a clean break much harder to pull off. So far I have been cautious about salients, but the ability to generate multiple ZoCs can really constrict any retreat.

Once we are in Belgium and the Franco-German border its all about small decisions, where to stand, counter-attacks and how to manage the decline of the non-Pzr formations as they start to lack elements and their morale falls – to the point where a retreat can convert to a rout.

On my side, I need to think of the value of setting up another set of landings and, of course, when to visit the south of France. Where I still think most of the Luftwaffe is lurking.

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RE: T57 - mauling St Malo - 2/14/2020 8:38:06 PM   
Joel Billings


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Great AAR, but you're really missing something if you don't advance another 10 miles up the coast past La Spezia and make it to Cinque Terra. Your soldiers will thank you (those that survive).



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RE: T57 - mauling St Malo - 2/15/2020 1:07:17 PM   
loki100


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

Great AAR, but you're really missing something if you don't advance another 10 miles up the coast past La Spezia and make it to Cinque Terra. Your soldiers will thank you (those that survive).




Do think the map could be improved by marking particularly nice places to visit, breweries and vineyards of note etc ... the sort of things that should influence the choices of both players?

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A divergence into logistics - 2/15/2020 1:15:01 PM   
loki100


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Allied Logistics

Since the pace of updates is going to slow over the next week or so, this might be a good time to have a digression around logistics for the Allies.

First, I'm assuming you have printed out Red Lancer's one page guide. I'm not going to look at the demand side in any great detail but if you want to get into the real details all you need is there.

Italy

In Italy, all this is fairly straightforward. Given the way the campaign develops, this is all about port capacity and open sea-lanes. By the time you have Taranto and Bari you can land all you need. Ports further north ease this process. Another substantial advantage in Italy is that the most likely early ports also have a large rail depot. You have 11 pts of this in Bari-Brindisi-Taranto alone. The advantage of this, as we'll discuss below, is that you gain a lot of trains and can thus move a lot of freight without crippling your truck fleet.

Here's S Italy in our current game, I'm showing my depots and the rail capacity of the key hexes.



In combination all that sums up to around 300 units of rail capacity – or in other words I have the trains to move 300,000 tons of freight/units. There is a secondary issue which is that as rails become more congested the volume/train drops (which is why interdiction matters) but the trade off between capacity and likely demand means I don't need to worry too much.

But the key here, is once the Allies are established south of the Bifano, supply is a non-issue. You have sufficient ports, sufficient trains and are close enough to your depots that your trucks can readily cope.

Each railyard can use its capacity over 50 hexes (freight) or 30 (unit moves). So as you move north, some of those southern rail depots drop out the system but as of now I have plenty around Rome and Tuscany to supply my armies.

In reverse, what is painless for the Allies is a pain for the Axis. The Allied player cannot commit too much effort to bombing out the Italian rail net.



So Italy is usually no issue, you can play as the Allies with only minimal attention to the logistics game – the problem is getting supplies into a contested beach head, such as the fighting around the Crati river, Bari and Civitavecchia in this game.

As I have done, you can motorise some units permanently and use temporary motorisation to exploit an opportunity with little fear that you are messing with your logistics.

France

So here's the current rail/port map for France and we can start to see where problems are going to arise.

There's a few spoilers in there as its the current turn.



I basically have 28 port pts (almost 1,700,000 freight), this will rise to 39 by the time I have the Normandy and Brittany ports. After that the only real gains are Antwerp and the Netherlands. Not all this is available for supply, moving in replacements and fresh units costs a fair bit of the capacity.

So as in Italy, bringing freight to France is not really the concern. I have about 35 divisions in France and these would need around 70 'port pts' (if they were all at 0 and went to 100). So on the assumption that I never run out, then I have plenty of capacity both for resupply and to stock for future operations.

You can get a rough idea of how well I am doing from the logistics log. I rarely glance at this in WiTW up to this stage as its of little importance.


[1]


This is going to change.

If we count in some smaller rail depots, I'll have around 30 rail capacity to push supply up to the Belgian border – once the damaged depots repair. Useable capacity will be much lower as this will be moving over a few repaired lines (so greater cost to deliver). As my army expands, and I need to move air units to France (not to mention artillery usage), this 30 is not enough for simple replacement never mind sustained fighting, building up depot stocks or bringing in replacement manpower – and moving fresh units to the front.

So what happens is my units need trucks to gain supply.

And I have plenty of trucks?



Well no, at a rough glance I had 200 unused trucks in France last turn. This is mainly as trucks are associated with depot capacity so till I have more depots (and repaired railyards), I can't draw on that stock of trucks in my reserve pool.

As I move east (I'm assuming I will be moving east), a number of stresses start to appear. First, yes I may have some depots close to the front but:

i) they need to repair, if the railyard is damaged (and it will be) then depot capacity is lowered;
ii) they are at the end of a poorly repaired rail network with insufficient trains (the rail cap and rail usage problems).

So I'll be using those depots in Picardy for some time. This will mean my units start using their organic trucks to get the supply they want. And trucks missing from the unit have an impact on both mobility and combat power. So in particular, recovery from heavy combat takes longer.

It also means my armoured divisions will have MP around the mid-30s, so they will struggle to exploit, especially in poor terrain, ZoCs or major rivers.

The only real solution is to start setting most HQ to supply priority #1 or #2. This may sound unintuitive as it means they will never get more than 50% or 70% of their needs (in the best case).

The other solution is to be prepared to send particularly heavily used units well back to where they can more easily regain the supply/replacements they need.

But if I push supply collection to 100% then they lose more power/mobility as their trucks are away getting that supply – and the supply probably is in France so they will try, just its sat in the Picardy/Normandy ports. The other advantage to suppressing unit demand is means that some of the supply actually goes into storage at the depots, so it is there when you need to call on it.

At this stage, you need to play things by instinct really. Some corps can be at #3 or #4 as there will be enough trucks in France to sustain them, but not many. And that takes us directly to the strategic decision the Allies dodged in late 1944 – broad vs narrow front offensives.

And given all this, a picture of what this is all about:



And all this is really about fighting in Belgium and the Rhineland, its far far worse down towards Strasbourg – for that, all of a sudden, Marseilles becomes critical.

Or to repeat the comment above - what is painless for the Axis (resupply at the edge of Germany) is a pain for the Allies.

[1] The flow of replacement manpower is indicative of which Armies are most in action, last turn (& that would have been the t57/8 switch), I deliberately rested most of 1 US and 2 Br to give them a chance to draw in replacements (& repair damaged elements).

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Post #: 119
sorry to interrupt - 2/15/2020 2:07:35 PM   
BrianG

 

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Which version are you playing?

Great AAR.

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