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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 1:53:47 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		The biggest reason why the game is taking so long is, as you pointed out, redirecting and upgrading your forces. That is a good reason for having multiple vectors to advance, especially if the Japanese fleet and air units are relatively intact and his pilots are experienced and have deep pools. Both of you have done very well and I am sure that both of you have learned a lot.

I hope that Joseph is looking down and smiling at both of you.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4531
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 2:21:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/13/46

Intel Screen: The Allies are about 18.5k from victory with about 45 days left. So I need to score roughly 500 points per turn while holding Erik to 0 points overall (not impossible due to him regularly losing base points).

There's a chance, mainly because Japan will still lose a lot of base points and army loss points in China, with little or no losses for the Allies. And there are some good points in the Ryukus, though at greater risk of effective enemy counterattack (from a points standpoint).

The Allies will also try to score points in Korea, Hokkaido and via strategic bombing.

There's a small chance of an invasion of the southern Home Islands, but only if Japan's air defenses collapse early enough to permit pulling together such an op.




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Post #: 4532
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 2:35:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/13/46

China: Japanese defenses have collapsed. It's a race now, as Allied armies spread out to pick off remaining high-value enemy bases. A sizeable amount of the Allied army will move directly to Korea.




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Post #: 4533
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 2:49:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/13/46

Home Island and Korea: Except for strategic bombing, these areas have been quiet the past year. Things are about to heat up, beginning with Hokkaido.




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Post #: 4534
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 3:13:42 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		You should send this to Eric and suggest it as the new Japanese Army's Chinese theme song:

The Animals - We've Gotta Get Out Of This Place

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUpBSvN1a50

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4535
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/22/2020 3:50:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Somehow, when I clicked on your link, I must've clicked twice and the second click must've directed me elsewhere, because I ended up with a video of The Band and its version of "The Weight." Hey, that was good.

I then figured out my boo-boo and watched your link. :)

P.S. Thanks for the to Joseph aka SqzMyLemon. :)

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4536
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/24/2020 4:00:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/14/46 to 1/17/46

Erik found the way to turn off combat animations, cutting his turn time by 75%. Now he's flipping turns.

The Night They Drove Ol' Dixie Down: For the past few months, the game has felt like the Civil War in the winter of 1865, especially since the Japanese position in China fell apart. The Allies are moving all over the place, steamrolling, striking effectively, taking important bases, and the enemy seems holed up, licking its wounds. Erik still has a strong airforce and enough of a navy to put power on a particular point under the right circumstances. What I don't know is whether his economy is collapsing or whether he still has a strong reserve. I have to assume the latter, so I remain cautious about placing assets in positions where his air force could attack en masse.

Hokkaido: The Allies blew through the enemy force in the woods hex south of Wakkanai. That force, it turned out, was mixed brigades. Tomorrow, Allied armor will attack another hex to the SW. If the Allies prevail - and they will, tomorrow or the day after - then the Allies will be proximate to Sapporo. To this point, I don't see evidence that Erik is reinforcing - supply may be the issue. Sapporo is key because it's airfield is 11 hexes from Tokyo - the max range of the P-80 Shooting Star and the P-51H (the late-war Mustangs and Corsairs have far less range than the earlier models). The Allied army at Kushiro is moving west, towards Sapporo/Hakodate. And a sizeable amphibious force will take station north of Bihoro tomorrow, with D-Day the day after, if things go well. Here I'm exposing ships, but Erik doesn't seem to have patrols up and most of his airfields are wrecked. I'll monitor detection levels carefully before committing but I'm thinking Hokkaido may turn into "stole second base on catcher's indifference."

China: Changsha is likely to fall tomorrow. Major Allied army to coalesce at Canton in about four days - far more than is needed for the base. Western and Russian 2EB and 1EB are handling the Japanese stacks that have retreated off road. I don't think the enemy will have any bases in China in two weeks, except for a couple of meaningless ones in the Himalayas and other extremities. Many Allied units are reporting to Shanghai, for likely invasions of the Ryukus and Pescadores and a possible invasion of Moppo. Another sizeable continents of units is moving by rail to reinforce Korea.

Victory Conditions: The score fluctuates a bit, as Japanese bases fall below the supplies needed or recover the amount needed, effecting the denominator by about +/- 500 each day. Overall the IJ lead is down to about 16.5k. The imminent fall of Changsha, Canton and Hong Kong, and the possibility that Sapporo, Asahikawa and Bihoro will follow suit inside ten days, will bump things considerably. If Erik continues passive, I think there's a decent chance of 2:1 by the end of February. But he's a good and aggressive player, so unlikely to sit on his hands while Richmond burns.

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Post #: 4537
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/24/2020 4:09:07 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I just looked at Victory Conditions in the manual (my first look in that book in years, 'cause I'm lazy).

It appears to me the game ends March 31, 1946.

The Allies can achieve AV by reaching 2:1 anytime before then. I think that would be rated an Allied marginal victory, under the rules. If the Allies don't achieve 2:1 by then, the game is rated a draw (because the current ratio merits a Decisive Victory nudged down two levels due to the late date).

So, basically, draw it is, which mirrors my own feelings.


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Post #: 4538
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/24/2020 9:38:36 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Excellent game, you are both winners. Which is better than being Weiners.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4539
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/25/2020 1:04:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/18/46

Points: Allies are about 15.5K from 2:1 and scoring well, with a lot of "easy" points coming from high-value bases and enemy army losses. I think for Erik to Battle of the Bulge, he needs to configure a strong setback of the Allies forces in and around Hokkaido or the Allied shipping in and near Tungchow, China (including Death Star). He shows no signs of counterattacking, yet, but then a surprise counterattack always follows a nice, quiet spell in which "the Allies will be home by Christmas, etc."

Strategic Bombing: Nagasaki is pretty much destroyed. There is some pockets of surviving industry, but pretty soon only the Kobe to Tokyo corridor will remain. I don't want to probe there until I have airfields within range 11 of any particular bases, so that the P-80s and P-51Hs can take a stab at daytime sweeps against the enemy's big fighter bastions.

China: Changsha and Paoshan fell today. Chengtu (big denominator) is cracking and may fall in a few days. Remaining enemy pockets of value for bases and army points: Canton/Hong Kong; Kunming/Tuyun; Wuchang; Chengtu; Liuchow. That's it.

Hokkaido: Allied armor easily brushed back remnant army in the forests; next stop, Asahikawa. Movement dot indicates Erik might be withdrawing from Bihoro, on the north coast. Major Allied amphibious landing there tomorrow (this exposes a lot of valuable shipping, but the ships show no detection and many of Erik's airfields are badly damaged - I don't think he's even paying attention up here any longer.

I think and hope Erik still has at least one major counterattack left, but its possible that the Japanese economy has gone up the spout, so that he can only put up fighters to defend and that's about it.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4540
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/27/2020 6:30:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/19/46 and 1/20/46

There are increasing indications that the Japanese economy is hurting and that Erik is limited in what he can do. He's not counterattacking anywhere, even as the Allies begin new offensives that offer him some opportunities. But he could be marshalling what's needed for a massive counterstrike should DS or other major assets blunder into his "wheelhouse."

Hokkaido: The Allied invasion of Bihoro goes well. First attack drops forts to 7. Supply malus for the enemy is a surprise - Erik apparently can't afford to provide for at least this part of the Home Islands. I think the base will fall in a week. Just to the west, Allied armor has reached Asahikawa in force. That base could well fall tomorrow. The next target is Sapporo. It appears that the bulk of the enemy defenses are mixed brigades. No sign of Erik reinforcing.

China: I think big-denominator Chengtu will fall tomorrow. First probing attack by single armored unit showed 7 forts at Canton and a supply malus - and the enemy suffered higher casualties. And Wuchow will be under seige inside a week.

Strategic Bombing: Suddenly, Allied escorts (mainly P-51H models) and 4EB are tearing up the same kinds of enemy fighters that gave them fits. There's a reason for the change, but I can't pinpoint it on the information I have at hand. Too many possibilities. Japanese industry is toast from Okayama west (south, true) and from Iwaki east (north, true). Only the Tokyo-to-Kobe corridor is in good shape. Once I have airfields within range (Sapporo, Hakodate, etc.), the bombers will look there.

Victory: It's likely that Japan will fall by the end of February. Currently the Allies are about 15.5k from AV, but a bunch of high-value bases will fall over the next seven days.


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Post #: 4541
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/27/2020 6:42:07 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		To me, the thing that would change in the air war is pilot quality. He may not have been able to keep up with the demand of training his pilots.
I am unsure if training pilots uses supply, anyone know about this?

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Post #: 4542
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/27/2020 10:25:51 PM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

To me, the thing that would change in the air war is pilot quality. He may not have been able to keep up with the demand of training his pilots.
I am unsure if training pilots uses supply, anyone know about this?

I think a certain amount of supply is deducted for the avgas, but not as much as a combat sortie or other mission. You probably know that HI points are consumed during pilot training.

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Post #: 4543
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/27/2020 11:13:30 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Also, how many of his excellent early war pilots are left? There may not be enough and he may be saving some for a last gasp. At least, he is not giving up.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 4544
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2020 3:01:40 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Air losses on both sides have been extremely heavy the past year, due to the strategic bombing campaign. But here's the thing - Erik has flown zero offensive missions in that time, so all of his losses have been over his bases. So I think his pilot losses have to be pretty modest.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/28/2020 3:02:39 AM >

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Post #: 4545
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2020 11:34:49 AM   
Bearcat2

 

Posts: 577
Joined: 2/14/2004
Status: offline 		CAP & Search require 1/3 of a supply point to fly; for the rest, you need double the supply needs of the BASE [1pt/escort;bombers depending upon bomb load] to fly any offensive mission.

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Post #: 4546
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2020 4:51:28 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

CAP & Search require 1/3 of a supply point to fly; for the rest, you need double the supply needs of the BASE [1pt/escort;bombers depending upon bomb load] to fly any offensive mission.

The original question was about supply needs for training. I am sure Alfred said there was some - perhaps 1/10th of what would be required for a mission (assuming training at 0 range).

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Post #: 4547
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 1/28/2020 5:29:06 PM   
HansBolter


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From: United States
Status: offline 		If the training involves actually flying the planes then it seems reasonable for training to use the same amount of supply as CAP and search. The planes, with pilots rotating, would be in the air all day long.

If you are training pilots in a squadron with no aircraft, meaning that training is all in the classroom, then no supply should be used.

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Post #: 4548
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 1:55:41 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/23/46

Hokkaido: Like the Confederacy in February 1865 - teetering, all but finished, but no doubt able to strike out in desperation when the time comes. Under an onslaught by bombers unopposed and powerful armies, and out of supply, the Japanese cave at Bihoro and in the woods north of Asahikawa. The Allies will reach Sapporo over the next few turns. Erik might not stand there. Even if he does, it's doomed to fall within a week to ten days. Then the Allied strategic bombing campaign will commence against Tokyo and Maebashi.




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Post #: 4549
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 2:15:10 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/23/46

China: It's April 1, 1865, in Virginia. There is no hope for the Japanese. There are scattered pockets, but the Japanese are out of supply, unable to attack, out of options, out of luck. The Allies will pick off the remaining points centers and harvest several thousand points by reducing the tattered remnants of the massive Japanese army. A large part of the Allied army is already on the move to Korea or to Shanghai, in preparation for pending offensives.




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Post #: 4550
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 2:27:31 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/23/46

Victory Points: Allies are 12.5k from auto-victory. Originally, I had hoped they'd be at this point by the end of January, so things are progressing better than anticipated.

I think the Allies can still gain about 5k points for bases, about 2k to 4k for destruction of the massive, isolated, out of supply enemy armies in China and on Hokkaido, leaving the balance mostly to Strategic Bombing.

Erik is quietly playing without complaint. The end game can't be fun. In fact, this probably hasn't been fun for him in at least six to eight months. It'll be merciful to bring it to a close.

I think the end will come by mid- or late-February. Before then, the Allies are likely to invade the Ryukus and Pescadores and may invade Moppo.




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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 4:19:59 PM   
T Rav

 

Posts: 387
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Status: offline 		"I will be Merciful" sounds like the Gorn!

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Post #: 4552
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 6:00:16 PM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
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From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

It's April 1, 1865, in Virginia.


So where do you think your Five Forks will be?

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Post #: 4553
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/1/2020 8:17:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Actually, we're past Five Forks in China. We're past Farmington. Ewell has surrendered. It's over. Just rounding up and herding the tattered enemy remnants now.

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Post #: 4554
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/3/2020 12:58:28 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
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Status: offline 		Who are the light blue guys moving into Canton?

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Post #: 4555
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/3/2020 5:15:27 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline 		Free French are light blue.

Kiwis are darker blue.

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Post #: 4556
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/9/2020 1:21:21 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/28/46

Striving for Victory: Allies took Canton and Wuchow today, basically finishing Japan in Asia, except for Hong Kong and southern Korea. Allies need about 11k to achieve AV, which is slightly ahead of the expected score estimated a few weeks back. But it'll be a bit tougher to score big base points for the next week or so, unless Sapporo falls sooner than expected.




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Post #: 4557
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/9/2020 1:22:55 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/28/46

Hokkaido: Siege of Sapporo ongoing - a big base with uber forts, but already the Allies have achieved a 1:1, dropping forts to 8. Lots more Allied units to arrive in coming days.




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Post #: 4558
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/9/2020 1:25:14 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		1/28/46

Okinawa and China: D-Day at Naha went seamlessly, with opening attack tomorrow. One enemy division there. The Allies have three good divisions, lots of armor, arty and combat engineers, and a lot of reserve units, if needed.

There was a time, as recently as two months ago, where I wondered if Allied moves here and on Hokkaido would trigger massive enemy counterattacks. THus far, Erik is quiet. I think that's due to his supply situation more than anything else.




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Post #: 4559
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 2/9/2020 1:47:06 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I think that Ishigaki between Okinawa and Formosa has a naval fortress unit of some sort. In case you did not know that.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4560
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