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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 11:49:21 PM   
Footslogger


Posts: 1232
Joined: 10/9/2008
From: Washington USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

I work in IT and now we have this huge panic where everyone thinks they will need VPN to work from home when the apocalypse arrives from China. Even though 20% the organization has had the flu this year because it was really bad. Anyway so that his hundreds of people setup on VPN but they don't even really know what it is.


VPN's are great if your at a website and it says, "Your not allowed to view this in your country."

Is your company running a special too?

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 241
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:10:40 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		The Problem With Telling Sick Workers to Stay Home

Even with the coronavirus spreading, lax labor laws and little sick leave mean that many people can’t afford to skip work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-could-hit-american-workers-especially-hard/607213/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Footslogger)
Post #: 242
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:31:27 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Problem With Telling Sick Workers to Stay Home

Even with the coronavirus spreading, lax labor laws and little sick leave mean that many people can’t afford to skip work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-could-hit-american-workers-especially-hard/607213/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

In my Public Service career I had to manage a large number of employees so I got a pretty good overview of how life works. The employee contract gave a fairly generous sick leave allowance each year - something like 21 days of paid sick leave per year. Unused sick leave was accumulated and carried over to subsequent years so you could accumulate quite a lot during your career. Unfortunately, it was not paid out on leaving the Public Service so you had an incentive to use it rather than lose it.

Here's where the observations on human nature come in. Invariably, the good workers banked their sick leave until they had a serious illness and used it then. The ones you had to constantly cajole to get back to work would use up their entire sick leave allowance each year - a sort of extra vacation leave for them. I was not allowed to ask them about the nature of the illness or verify with their doctor about it.

The ones who banked their sick time sometimes had serious accidents or illness that took them off work for months. They usually had enough paid sick leave to cover it. The ones who used up their sick leave had nothing in the bank when misfortune hit them and they had months off without pay. The latter displayed much weeping and gnashing of teeth ...

I banked my sick leave and toward the end of my career took about 10 "wellness" days over the final year because I was getting worn out and felt I had earned the odd break to recharge. But I sure wish there could have been even a token % payout for the three years sick leave I had accumulated!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 243
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:47:40 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I agree with you about the payout. But depending upon the size of the orgaization right where the sick workers are, maybe someone could do a quick test or even a teleconference with a medical provider about whether they should stay home or go to work. Luckily, I don't have that problem.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 244
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 4:23:09 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		From: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Citing the latest from the WHO.





Attachment (1)

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(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 245
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 9:13:33 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		So the death rate is actually for those cases of Carona virus that appear to be severe enough to be tested.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 246
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 12:05:02 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Problem With Telling Sick Workers to Stay Home

Even with the coronavirus spreading, lax labor laws and little sick leave mean that many people can’t afford to skip work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-could-hit-american-workers-especially-hard/607213/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

In my Public Service career I had to manage a large number of employees so I got a pretty good overview of how life works. The employee contract gave a fairly generous sick leave allowance each year - something like 21 days of paid sick leave per year. Unused sick leave was accumulated and carried over to subsequent years so you could accumulate quite a lot during your career. Unfortunately, it was not paid out on leaving the Public Service so you had an incentive to use it rather than lose it.

Here's where the observations on human nature come in. Invariably, the good workers banked their sick leave until they had a serious illness and used it then. The ones you had to constantly cajole to get back to work would use up their entire sick leave allowance each year - a sort of extra vacation leave for them. I was not allowed to ask them about the nature of the illness or verify with their doctor about it.

The ones who banked their sick time sometimes had serious accidents or illness that took them off work for months. They usually had enough paid sick leave to cover it. The ones who used up their sick leave had nothing in the bank when misfortune hit them and they had months off without pay. The latter displayed much weeping and gnashing of teeth ...

I banked my sick leave and toward the end of my career took about 10 "wellness" days over the final year because I was getting worn out and felt I had earned the odd break to recharge. But I sure wish there could have been even a token % payout for the three years sick leave I had accumulated!



Wow, just wow! If only every employer had such magnanimous policies. Most architecture firms are very small businesses on the order of 4-20 employees. My current employer has three employees. I get 15 paid days off a year to share between vacation and sick days. Have NEVER gotten more than that in any firm I worked in over the last 45 years. Is the 21 days of paid sick leave in addition to vacation time? Wow, just wow!

_____________________________

Hans


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 247
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 12:43:13 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb

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CEO, Matrix Games LLC



For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

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(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 248
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 12:48:38 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
From an interventional / treatment perspective, diagnostic tests are a tool that will help dictate the next course of action. Too many people think that testing for testing sake is worthwhile. Usually it's not. Unless one is trying to determine the next course of action for a choice of available treatments or gain in-depth understanding of disease incidence/prevalance, the information gathered by diagnostic testing is often overrated.


The best period for having an abundance of testing was when it could still be easily contained, but testing has to go along with restrictions on travel and many other policies. My greatest disappointment about this situation is that the US dropped the ball in multiple areas including testing, while it did better than most in one area (travel restrictions).

Here's an example of a place that did it right, but it remains to be seen if this virus is containable even with doing everything right:

https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus

It seems like a catch 22 from the standpoint of a society that has been used to a certain "normal" for a century. If you do "too much" to stop an event that may kill millions of people (and what's "too much" in that case?) then you're an alarmist. But if you aren't proactive and it kills millions of people, that's negligence of the highest and most tragic order.

Regards,

- Erik



_____________________________

Erik Rutins
CEO, Matrix Games LLC



For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

Freedom is not Free.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 249
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 12:58:12 PM   
btd64


Posts: 9973
Joined: 1/23/2010
From: Mass. USA. now in Lancaster, OHIO
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


That's unsettling....GP

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(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 250
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:17:45 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


That's unsettling....GP


I hate to sound crass, but you have to die from something. Also, those most likely to die already have health problems whether known or unknown.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to btd64)
Post #: 251
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:18:19 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's what happened on the few occasions I was invited to a high school party. All the guys would be talking about cars or sports, and I'd try to change the topic to the Civil War or butterflies or Olivia DeHaviland.

Conversations stoppers, circa 1978.

MakeeLearn, circa 2020.




Her: "I think we are ready to take our relationship to the next level."


Me: I've been thinking, was Lee's relationship with Jeb Stuart a contributing factor in...."


Her:





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/5/2020 1:49:17 PM >

_____________________________


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Post #: 252
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:27:47 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		LOL - What guy hasn't been on the receiving end of that stare at some point in his life?!

_____________________________

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Post #: 253
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:45:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


That can't be right.

The "15 million dead" figure is the best case scenario of seven tested?

That doesn't seem even remotely possible, judging by the (seemingly) credible information that's out there, including from Johns Hopkins.

If the virus has basically tapered off in China, with a total of 3,000 deaths and holding steady, how is it going to explode to 15 million (or worse! worse! worse!) worldwide?

The charts and data don't show it.

It's early, yet, to draw hard conclusions, but it seems most likely now that the trends are improving.

Or, what in the world am I missing?


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/5/2020 1:46:17 PM >

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 254
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:48:41 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The date given by Johns Hopkins, consistent with other credible sources, seems encouraging rather than discouraging.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 255
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 1:56:55 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Or, what in the world am I missing?



You are missing the fact that a for-profit Media enterprise is looking to generate additional income (i.e through web site "clicks") by publicizing the extremely scary findings of an obscure research group.

_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

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Post #: 256
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:05:33 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


Been seeing this crisis being used as fuel for OTHER things...



From the original source
https://anu.prezly.com/coronavirus-is-highly-uncertain-and-the-costs-could-be-high?utm_source=email&utm_medium=campaign&utm_id=campaign_Ejmb_lbzJ.contact_RBhn_lDAN&asset_type=attachment&asset_id=171409#attachment-171409

PDF at the bottom of page.

"The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy is proven wrong by the
latest outbreak of COVID-19. Global cooperation, especially in the sphere of public health and
economic development, is essential. All major countries need to participate actively. It is too
late to act once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and attempt to close borders
once a pandemic has started."

Along the same lines...

WHO Urges People To Go 'Cashless' Because 'Dirty Banknotes Can Spread The Virus'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-warns-dirty-banknotes-may-be-spreading-virus-worldwide






< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/5/2020 2:06:11 PM >

_____________________________


(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 257
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:13:10 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Problem With Telling Sick Workers to Stay Home

Even with the coronavirus spreading, lax labor laws and little sick leave mean that many people can’t afford to skip work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-could-hit-american-workers-especially-hard/607213/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

In my Public Service career I had to manage a large number of employees so I got a pretty good overview of how life works. The employee contract gave a fairly generous sick leave allowance each year - something like 21 days of paid sick leave per year. Unused sick leave was accumulated and carried over to subsequent years so you could accumulate quite a lot during your career. Unfortunately, it was not paid out on leaving the Public Service so you had an incentive to use it rather than lose it.

Here's where the observations on human nature come in. Invariably, the good workers banked their sick leave until they had a serious illness and used it then. The ones you had to constantly cajole to get back to work would use up their entire sick leave allowance each year - a sort of extra vacation leave for them. I was not allowed to ask them about the nature of the illness or verify with their doctor about it.

The ones who banked their sick time sometimes had serious accidents or illness that took them off work for months. They usually had enough paid sick leave to cover it. The ones who used up their sick leave had nothing in the bank when misfortune hit them and they had months off without pay. The latter displayed much weeping and gnashing of teeth ...

I banked my sick leave and toward the end of my career took about 10 "wellness" days over the final year because I was getting worn out and felt I had earned the odd break to recharge. But I sure wish there could have been even a token % payout for the three years sick leave I had accumulated!



Wow, just wow! If only every employer had such magnanimous policies. Most architecture firms are very small businesses on the order of 4-20 employees. My current employer has three employees. I get 15 paid days off a year to share between vacation and sick days. Have NEVER gotten more than that in any firm I worked in over the last 45 years. Is the 21 days of paid sick leave in addition to vacation time? Wow, just wow!


We have sick/vacay here as well, and it doesn't carry over. You have to use the correct one for the correct occasion. When my employees don't have sick leave left at the end of the year, I usually don't employ them here the next year. I have taken maybe 2 sick days in 15 years.


< Message edited by jeffk3510 -- 3/5/2020 2:24:22 PM >

_____________________________

Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.

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Post #: 258
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:14:39 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


That's unsettling....GP


It's a miss quote - they meant to say 4,500 people and it will be a forgotten Wikipedia article at this time next year..


_____________________________

Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.

Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

(in reply to btd64)
Post #: 259
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:16:49 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


That can't be right.

The "15 million dead" figure is the best case scenario of seven tested?

That doesn't seem even remotely possible, judging by the (seemingly) credible information that's out there, including from Johns Hopkins.

If the virus has basically tapered off in China, with a total of 3,000 deaths and holding steady, how is it going to explode to 15 million (or worse! worse! worse!) worldwide?

The charts and data don't show it.

It's early, yet, to draw hard conclusions, but it seems most likely now that the trends are improving.

Or, what in the world am I missing?



You're not missing anything Dan - complete and total media BS is all this is. Are people getting sick and dying? Sure, but at this time next year we'll say hey remember the coronavirus the world went crazy about? Yeah me too.


_____________________________

Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.

Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 260
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:23:34 PM   
jeffk3510


Posts: 4132
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Kansas
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The date given by Johns Hopkins, consistent with other credible sources, seems encouraging rather than discouraging.






The media could put this up for the norovirus, and it would show around 200k deaths a year, but no one does anything about it. 3,300 people right now and the world has lost it's mind.

Our school district just announced if we have one, ONE confirmed case, the entire district is shutting down. We currently have a lot of kids/teachers out from your seasonal flu and it's business as usual at the school... this is starting to become annoying honestly. I live in the most central part of the USA you can live in, and you can't buy toilet paper or bottled water at our Walmart. Yes, you're hearing that correctly. I live in a town of 5,000 people..

They're selling hazmat suits in pharmacy's in Italy - that's all you have to know.

< Message edited by jeffk3510 -- 3/5/2020 2:27:40 PM >

_____________________________

Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.

Currently chasing three kids around the Midwest.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 261
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:27:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Detail, at bottom right, of Johns Hopkins webpage, as of 10:20 a.m. eastern time.

It shows the number of new cases (vertical red bars) reported each day.

That is not the profile of a pandemic. The numbers are steady rather than mushrooming.

This data is either reliable, which would be great, or unreliable, which wouldn't be.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to jeffk3510)
Post #: 262
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:37:33 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		The decrease in China in that view is partially masking the exponential increase elsewhere. Cases are now appearing in most countries around the globe, including those with poor health systems. It's still spreading at a very high rate even in advanced countries implementing social distancing and contact tracing. That's what is leading many to say that this is now an inevitable pandemic, projecting forward a few more weeks. If we are very, very lucky, it will not be but there is no indication at this point that is is containable without excellent preparation and very significant proactive measures for a long period of time.

_____________________________

Erik Rutins
CEO, Matrix Games LLC



For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

Freedom is not Free.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 263
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:39:53 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		This is the main concern at this point:






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Erik Rutins
CEO, Matrix Games LLC



For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

Freedom is not Free.

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 264
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:42:42 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		The mortality estimates are based on the fact that while it's mild for about 80% of people, it hospitalizes 15-20% and about 5% need ICU care for many weeks. No hospital system around the world is built to handle that kind of load and if it is not contained and spreads too quickly people who need hospital care will not be able to receive it and the mortality will increase. We saw this in Wuhan. Reports from Northern Italy are that hospitals are already strained there even with a relatively small number of cases relative to the overall population.

If it cannot be contained, it is vital that the spread be slowed as much as possible to limit the strain on the hospital systems. Hence school closings, canceling public gatherings, work from home, etc. to try to slow the growth rate of cases.

< Message edited by Erik Rutins -- 3/5/2020 2:44:00 PM >

_____________________________

Erik Rutins
CEO, Matrix Games LLC



For official support, please use our Help Desk: http://www.matrixgames.com/helpdesk/

Freedom is not Free.

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 265
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:45:02 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The yellow line on the Johns Hopkins graph excludes cases in China and looks nothing like the graph you just posted, Erik.

And look at daily new cases (the Johns Hopkins detail I posted, just above). Nearly all new cases are non-China now, but the number of new cases per day has been steady during March, mainly around 2,400.

How can we have a logarithmic increase without exponential growth?

That does not make mathematical sense.

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 266
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:48:18 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is the main concern at this point:



No offense Erik, but you could draw the same graph every flu season. Until there's a clear indicator that mortality rates are dramatically higher, or there's some sort of evolution into scarier varieties, it's hard to see the difference. Don't get me wrong, I'm currently visiting with my 90+ y/o parents and this thing is certainly worrisome from that perspective. But the fact that governments and the media are collaborating to scare the everybody on the planet and shut down the global economy over what amounts to "flu season 2.0", well, I don't see it.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 267
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 2:59:43 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The yellow line on the Johns Hopkins graph excludes cases in China and looks nothing like the graph you just posted, Erik.


It does, but the difference in how you see it due to two reasons. The first is scale. It's scaled to the China numbers which are on the same graph, which makes it appear less significant. The second is that various countries report at different times of the day, but Johns Hopkins' latest data point gets added right at the start of the day and thus a new day almost always looks like the curve is flattening. You need to look at everything except the latest data point on that yellow graph for the actual curve.

quote:

And look at daily new cases (the Johns Hopkins detail I posted, just above). Nearly all new cases are non-China now, but the number of new cases per day has been steady during March, mainly around 2,400.


Same issue I described above regarding the latest data point on that site.

Regards,

- Erik


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Post #: 268
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 3:02:40 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull
No offense Erik, but you could draw the same graph every flu season. Until there's a clear indicator that mortality rates are dramatically higher, or there's some sort of evolution into scarier varieties, it's hard to see the difference. Don't get me wrong, I'm currently visiting with my 90+ y/o parents and this thing is certainly worrisome from that perspective. But the fact that governments and the media are collaborating to scare the everybody on the planet and shut down the global economy over what amounts to "flu season 2.0", well, I don't see it.


No offense taken at all, but there is already a huge amount of data that this is many times more lethal than the flu. The most optimistic estimates from NIH and CDC are in the 0.7% - 1.3% mortality range, while the WHO is saying 3.4%, whereas seasonal flue is about 0.1%. That's average mortality. It's closer to flu mortality for younger people, much much worse for older people. Unlike the flu, it is a lung illness - it attaches to the ACE2 receptors which are mostly in the lungs as I understand it, so people who develop severe illness immediately get a lung infection/pneumonia, which is a heck of a stress test on anyone.

Whether it's as bad as 3.4% is debatable, but it's definitely not "just the flu". I wish it were.

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Post #: 269
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/5/2020 3:06:55 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
Status: offline 		FWIW, this is the site I was referencing:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

If you click on the "more case statistics" you'll see what I posted.

< Message edited by Erik Rutins -- 3/5/2020 3:07:22 PM >

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Erik Rutins
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Post #: 270
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