Kull
Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
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Alright, so according to at least some we can't believe China or Iran and Italy is...well...Italy, so whose data can we trust? How about South Korea? Second highest reported total, and there shouldn't be any question regarding government transparency or ability to test or the fact that it's definitely NOT an authoritarian society capable of ultra-draconian means. Four days ago, here's what one of our forum members told us about the situation in South Korea:
quote:
ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart
Korea is #2, so on the surface it seems we're screwed, blued and tattoo'd, and you'd better keep all Korean residents (like me) from entering your country.
Below the surface, this is probably the most-tested, most-transparent country regarding this disease. They have drive-through testing stations. You can call a four-digit phone number, find out the closest station, pull up in your car, get a temperature check, answer a few questions, and if they think you're at risk, they'll do a nasal swab (from what I understand), and you'll get the results six hours later. Do you see that anywhere else? Everyone in the 200,000-plus member Shincheonji cult is getting tested, which is why the number of victims jumps about 500 a day here and will for the next week or so as their test results come in. Some buildings require you to wear a mask before entry, so I keep one in my pocket at all times.
My wife's hospital picked up 80 patients from Daegu over the weekend. They cleared out two wings for them. We're still not doing badly in Seoul in terms of numbers, although they've shut down the schools nationwide until March 23. There goes summer vacation. Church services are also being done virtually. We are on half-staffing in the office, which may go to zero percent staffing if we have to.
It's real easy to get a taxi and attendance is down at restaurants and bars, but my local marts have fully stocked shelves. Hoarding is not an issue.
Good luck, y'all.
Cheers,
CB
Clearly South Korea seems to have a good approach, including wide availability of testing. And the response clearly doesn't involve locking everybody in their houses and shutting down all businesses and travel. But as good as this system appears, it is NOT going to stop exponential growth. If 20% or more of all contacts get this disease, then almost 3 weeks in, the disease should be rampant. I found a government site in South Korea which has the results from each day of the outbreak (for example, here is the link to 2/28), so this is reliable. Keep in mind (as CaptBeefheart emphasized), that some of the spikes are due to delays in testing or receiving results. That said, here are the daily numbers showing the increase in total diagnosed infections:
2/18 - 31
2/19 - 58
2/20 - 111
2/21 - 209
2/22 - 436
2/23 - 602
2/24 - 833
2/25 - 893
2/26 - 1261
2/27 - 1766
2/28 - 2022
2/29 - 3150
3/1 - 3526
3/2 - 4212
3/3 - 4812
3/4 - 5328
3/5 - 6088
3/6 - 6593
3/7 - 7134
And here's the daily increase, as a percent of the total. Given over 1000 cases 10 days ago, if Covid-19 grows exponentially, we should see it in the numbers:
2/19 - 87%
2/20 - 91%
2/21 - 88%
2/22 - 109%
2/23 - 38%
2/24 - 38%
2/25 - 7%
2/26 - 41%
2/27 - 40%
2/28 - 14%
2/29 - 56%
3/1 - 12%
3/2 - 19%
3/3 - 14%
3/4 - 11%
3/5 - 14%
3/6 - 8%
3/7 - 8%
And we don't. The case load is growing, sure, but the rate of spread is clearly slowing.
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