Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

The virus escaped containment and had quite a period of time of unhampered growth in China; then China instituted strong countermeasures and had a darned quick taper-off.

I don't think Western countries (Europe and USA, etc.) were bushwhacked to the extent that China was - after all, it began in China with no notice and little fanfare; in the West, a fair amount of notice and more fanfare. The West has only now instituted varying degrees of lockdown. In Europe, perhaps a week or less. In some ways, the USA is ahead, mostly because notice was taken of what was going on in Europe.

China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other "first gen" countries are not teetering on the brink of annihilation.

From a numbers/trends standpoint - and everything I've seen in my life about "the sky is falling" (countered by "Pollyanna" responses) plus the quality of healthcare (at least in the West), I do not foresee anything like what is being predicted.

I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it. But the numbers aren't consistent with disaster.

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ORIGINAL: geofflambert

"I'm going out on limbs here. If I'm wrong, I will lack any credibility and will have to assume life as a hermit in the woods. So be it."

I thought he already was.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If this manages/happens to run its course in a month or so, imagine the surge in confidence/relief/exuberance as world's economies begin to ramp up and then gain steam going into the summer and the autumn. (The longer it takes for the virus to run it's course, the less resilient the economies, in all likelihood).

But there will be all kinds of collateral damage requiring government interventions, as airlines, cruise lines, and many other industries and business suffer tremendous shocks to their cash flow.

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

It appears the mortality may be around 7%.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

he "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

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If my 90 year old grandmas catch it, they're toast. If my 7 year old boy catches it, he's toast. However, that's the case with anything for them really. The media is poison. That is all there is to it in my opinion.

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ORIGINAL: alanschu

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If my 90 year old grandmas catch it, they're toast. If my 7 year old boy catches it, he's toast. However, that's the case with anything for them really. The media is poison. That is all there is to it in my opinion.

You've certainly done a good enough job of avoiding information given you seem to think your 7 year old catching it is a death sentence....

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

quote:



The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/13/2020 4:19:23 AM >

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure we have the best health care system in the world. We absolutely squandered any notice we had. In those 3 weeks we tested less than 500 people, and didn't produce many test kits. The feds still forbid NY state to issue our own tests even though we have thousands of them. We are still wasting time. What "major" steps are we taking? Everything we are doing is private. The Federal Government is taking what major steps precisely? A travel ban to prevent what? The virus is here. What are the major steps? Banning domestic air travel, banning large groups, banning travel, banning gatherings? no, the Feds have called for none of this. They seem much more concerned about the economy than the medical part of this

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not sure we have the best health care system in the world. We absolutely squandered any notice we had. In those 3 weeks we tested less than 500 people, and didn't produce many test kits. The feds still forbid NY state to issue our own tests even though we have thousands of them. We are still wasting time. What "major" steps are we taking? Everything we are doing is private. The Federal Government is taking what major steps precisely? A travel ban to prevent what? The virus is here. What are the major steps? Banning domestic air travel, banning large groups, banning travel, banning gatherings? no, the Feds have called for none of this. They seem much more concerned about the economy than the medical part of this

Last night on TV a commentator showed on her cell phone the information about testing that the CDC was posting on its website. For all of the USA on March 11th, the CDC did 8 tests! Yes eight! And the info for March 10 was 0 tests! The Administration only recently changed from having CDC do all the tests to letting private labs do it, but it did not have any info on how many were being done at private labs. The two big lab corporations would only say they are still "gearing up for it because they had no prior notice to get ready for testing".

This seems to indicate that the first few weeks were indeed wasted in expectation the disease would not spread or would go away soon because the weather was getting warmer. Not very encouraging ...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

This thread is getting a little too political, with tempers rising and name-calling. I suggest everyone cool it a little bit and stick to discussing useful info, analysis, and facts as they become available. For instance, here is one very important, completely verified factoid:

1. The best away to avoid Covid-19 is to practice social distancing and self-isolation by playing lots and lots of WitP:AE in the comfort of your own home office. In fact, try finding another opponent and starting a new PBEM while this all blows over.

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At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.

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We in the US are currently where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different (Their population is older than ours). 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.

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The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu. This assumes no drug is found effective and made available. The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%.

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Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did

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Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms. The most common presentation was a one week prodrome of muscle aches, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of shortness of breath. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases.

1. Virus can last on surfaces up to 24 hours depending on surface type, but still no consensus on this
2. The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based.

quote:

Last night on TV a commentator showed on her cell phone the information about testing that the CDC was posting on its website. For all of the USA on March 11th, the CDC did 8 tests! Yes eight! And the info for March 10 was 0 tests! The Administration only recently changed from having CDC do all the tests to letting private labs do it, but it did not have any info on how many were being done at private labs. The two big lab corporations would only say they are still "gearing up for it because they had no prior notice to get ready for testing".

This seems to indicate that the first few weeks were indeed wasted in expectation the disease would not spread or would go away soon because the weather was getting warmer. Not very encouraging ...

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can hope for a China/South Korea outcome because: (1) our healthcare system is likely the best in the world; (2) we had two months more notice than China had; (3) we began taking drastic measures much earlier in the "exponential" phase than China did [we're only about 10 days in, and we're already taking major steps and that will accelerate]; (4) we have the benefit of knowing what worked elsewhere and what didn't; (5) the warm season is arriving, and there's evidence the virus can't survive at above 86 degrees.

Even if we have something 13x China, we're still in the range of a normal flu season. 13x China? If we exceed that, I'd be shocked - but even then it be 1/375th of some of the wild-eyed projections that are being floated in here and by the media.

China's pandemic is now doubling at a rate of about once every 219 years. New York's once every two days is almost certainly going to flatten out, probably in a month or so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Dan, How can you expect a China/Korea outcome when we are not doing what China/Korea are doing? We are doing nothing of substance and you expect the curve to level off by cancelling sporting events and concerts? China/Korea are taking drastic actions and achieving acceptable results. We are doing nothing of the kind

quote:



The "exponential growth curve" in China lasted from about 1/24/2020 to about 3/1/2020. Five weeks.

Western Europe is probably two or three weeks into its own exponential curve. It may last longer than China's did. How much?

The USA/Western Hemisphere is about 10 days into its exponential curve. Will it experience a similar outcome to China, or not?

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 3/12/2020 11:33:01 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Very likely true, but what's the accessibility for it like across the population? It best the best is worth nothing if you've a large section of the population that will avoid it for the financial costs that it may or may not involve

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ORIGINAL: Anachro

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Very likely true, but what's the accessibility for it like across the population? It best the best is worth nothing if you've a large section of the population that will avoid it for the financial costs that it may or may not involve

Around 90% of the US population has some form of health insurance/health coverage. Accessibility is not the issue and moreover, is most likely not even a big concern for the majority of infected populations. Acute care hospital beds are a very small fraction of the total population the world over (I can't remember what the number was in the UK when I saw it a week or two ago, but it was in the range of 1k-10k beds for a population of 60 million); this is the same regardless of if you are in the USA, Canada, the UK, or elsewhere. Luckily, for the large majority of cases, acute care is not needed and most of the time the healthcare needs of a COVID-19 infection wont rise above self-isolating in one's own home, resting, and waiting it out.

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ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

The stock market has definitely made me ill; might as well get Coronawhatever and put me out of my misery. I insured most of my accounts so they could never lose money; but if the insurance company goes under

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

The stock market has definitely made me ill; might as well get Coronawhatever and put me out of my misery. I insured most of my accounts so they could never lose money; but if the insurance company goes under

Easy now. Unless you need to cash in your stocks, you should be able to wait it out for the rest of the year and expect that they will rise again when this pandemic fades. That is my plan.
The fly in the ointment is not the stock going down, but if I should (for any reason) pass away that set of investments would have to be cashed in to pay the deferred taxes on it (my tax-deferred retirement account). That would be a shame for my beneficiaries. Another reason for me to be careful for a while.