Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

But let's go with your test. You are looking to see which way a coin will land. All you know is that the coins will land, and if they do, then they will land heads or tails - there is no alternative. So what could you do? Well you could do what you have done, because this is about coin flipping.

However the Coronavirus isn't coin flipping. Its very real and, potentially very serious and we the public need to make decisions based on information we are given. What we don't need is people manipulating data to make this whole thing appear as bad as possible. What does that achieve exactly?

They are both random processes. In both cases evaluating just the resolved samples is valid.

I'm not trying to scare you. I'm soberly evaluating the numbers. Period.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: Orm

I think this will be tough to evaluate because we do not know the real number infected, nor recovered, and probably not even the number of dead. Nor do we know how many that are immune to the disease.

But we need a number now - to base our behavior on. How we function will vary wildly depending upon how deadly it really is.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But 52% mortality is a meaningless number that bears on nothing.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

And there you mention 'scaring me' again. Great debating technique.....

You are not scaring me, I am not scared - in fact even though I am in the 'at risk' bracket due to my health issues, I am more concerned about the economic consequences than anything else at present.

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In addition I am not silly and I do get it.

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You are not soberly evaluating the numbers. You are manipulating data by skewing the numbers through the removal of a key variable in order that you can come up with a high mortality rate which you then bandy round here like some sort of grim reaper.

Sober assessment would make mention of the active cases within any presentation of the 7.1% figure. You choose not to. There is nothing sober about that.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But 52% mortality is a meaningless number that bears on nothing.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Curtis, when you're wrong, just admit it. Don't change the topic or duck and weave. Just admit it. That earns you a lot more respect that remaining purposefully obtuse.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

And there you mention 'scaring me' again. Great debating technique.....

You are not scaring me, I am not scared - in fact even though I am in the 'at risk' bracket due to my health issues, I am more concerned about the economic consequences than anything else at present.

You are the one who first brought that word up. Not me. But it's irrelevant.

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In addition I am not silly and I do get it.

Sorry if you took umbrage at that. I had no idea you were so thin skinned. But, again, it's irrelevant. Let's stick to the issue, please.

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You are not soberly evaluating the numbers. You are manipulating data by skewing the numbers through the removal of a key variable in order that you can come up with a high mortality rate which you then bandy round here like some sort of grim reaper.

Sober assessment would make mention of the active cases within any presentation of the 7.1% figure. You choose not to. There is nothing sober about that.

No. It is not manipulation to omit samples that haven't yet resolved. How could they possibly be included? We don't know how they will turn out!

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

c) Yes it's manipulation. If the relative size of that variable were small then one could possibly justify its total exclusion. Possibly. But its not. It's a very big number in relative and actual terms. So can't be ignored unless you seek to skew the results. "How could they possibly be included?" Well I've told you in at least three posts. Because the number is so large you need to include it. If you include it you then need to detail what assumptions are being made about its inclusion and then people can decide whether that assumption is reasonable. To simply remove it (given the size - and importance - of this variable) is to make your 7.1% figure totally and utterly pointless.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

You've removed a major variable - its data manipulation. And no, it is not scaring me in the slightest because I do not believe what you are saying is true so how could it?

The only variable I've removed are the unresolved cases (like those coins that were still in the air in our snapshot.)

How many resolved cases are you including because they were not reported because the symptoms were minor or were non-existent?

warspite1

I don't think you can blame Curtis Lemay for using numbers we don't know about because they weren't reported. But the active cases are known. Take for example the case of the Arsenal FC manager. He is an active case, he has the virus, he is on the list. So what's his situation. Well he's recovering at home and his wife has confirmed he isn't even unwell enough to have missed work had this not been Coronavirus.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

c) Yes it's manipulation. If the relative size of that variable were small then one could possibly justify its total exclusion. Possibly. But its not. It's a very big number in relative and actual terms. So can't be ignored unless you seek to skew the results. "How could they possibly be included?" Well I've told you in at least three posts. Because the number is so large you need to include it. If you include it you then need to detail what assumptions are being made about its inclusion and then people can decide whether that assumption is reasonable. To simply remove it (given the size - and importance - of this variable) is to make your 7.1% figure totally and utterly pointless.

Maybe I should have said "How could they possibly be included with any validity?"

I don't know why this is so hard to understand: My evaluation is based upon the known resolved samples only. Adding unresolved samples would just be wrong. It would falsely dilute the death rate figure. Adding guesses about unknown samples would be equally wrong.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Red2112

What really matters statistically, when other real life issues are not sorted? Statistics should have stopped the bubble in 2006-7 then, which it didn´t, same goes for climatic change! UK is taking another approach with a built health immune society to reduce the risk of infection.

A action is more efficient then a reaction. Right now there´s not enough mask for medical personell, or civilians. Civilians are using mask that are not protective, they are only preventive for the user to not spread the infection. The protective mask (type) are limited even to govermental personell (police etc.). You can leave your home for shopping food, go to work, or buy medical supplys etc, BUT most pharamcies (none in my town) have mask to sell, and if they did, I wonder what type they would have. So it makes no freaking sense to be able to go out for supplys but be exposed because you can´t buy a mask (a proper one).

In Spain if you have been detected as a positive host, you are then permited to be in sick-leave from your job and the goverment will pay 80% of you´re wage while you´re on sick-leave. This is the usual when sick in Spain, but I ask myself, what about other countrys? How are small business going to deal with a shut-down of a minimum of 15 days? What happens to those who live day-by-day, in other words make it barely to the end of the month, without being able to save a penny?

There´s money to rescue banks, but none for mask and supplys?

Italy asked for help to the EU when the outbreak, no one offered help, they then looked at China which did help. After this issue, the EU has changed it´s posture and has rectified it´s initial decision of not giving help due to the mass criticism they recieved from the rest of the EU countrys. What´s the use of being in the EU then?

Don´t know but I think these things are more important to deal with right now, and that´s were goverments should be firm.

What a BIG mess! Meanwhile, some will loose there loved one´s. Colatiral damage my A**!

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

In which case, if you are so upset about possibly adding in wrong numbers (even though you would have provided your assumptions for so doing and these may be accepted or not by the reader) you are quite happy to produce a 7.1% figure that you know to be equally wrong?

You have stated the 7.1% as some kind of fact - asking what battles would have produced such casualties. But you know 7.1% isn't a fact. Don't you? I mean, don't you? The WHO is talking about 3.4% or less but you confidently state "Hate to be bearer of bad tidings, but I think we've been looking at the statistics wrong". So are the WHO wrong but you are right?

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

So are the WHO wrong but you are right?

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ORIGINAL: z1812

@ Curtis Lemay. We don't need to debate X number of deaths and Y number of recoveries. It is evident enough that the situation is not very good and is becoming worst.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

That's going to change my behavior.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Instead of a pharmacy, go to a home improvement store and get the good masks there. Those masks are for working around dust and other things.

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ORIGINAL: Sieben

In South Korea, where they have tested a much larger percentage of the population than elsewhere (and thus moved the "number infected" closer to being a parameter), the rate is around 1%.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

That's going to change my behavior.

warspite1

Sounds like you've scared yourself

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ORIGINAL: Orm

One trouble with comparing the number of recovered versus the number of death is that it usually takes longer time for people to be declared recovered than it takes for those who dies. So the percentage will be higher in the middle when infected begins to die, and then get lower, and lower as time goes by.

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ORIGINAL: Red2112

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
Instead of a pharmacy, go to a home improvement store and get the good masks there. Those masks are for working around dust and other things.

Not sure if those shops are allowed to be opened after the state of alarm declared. I do have a proper mask for when I use to be welding but would look like Darth Vader with that on. A bit overkill, but if I have no choice, will go with that.

Still, I don´t get how goverments don´t employ more resources in that aspect of prevention for there citizens.

Sorry Erik if went a-wall there a bit, fixed. But will see when people go from speculating (which I blame for most of todays world issues), to direct personal effect.

Red...out

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: z1812

@ Curtis Lemay. We don't need to debate X number of deaths and Y number of recoveries. It is evident enough that the situation is not very good and is becoming worst.

Yes we do. It impacts how we will decide to act. A 2% risk might be something I would run if I really needed to. 7% is over the edge.

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ORIGINAL: z1812

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: z1812

@ Curtis Lemay. We don't need to debate X number of deaths and Y number of recoveries. It is evident enough that the situation is not very good and is becoming worst.

Yes we do. It impacts how we will decide to act. A 2% risk might be something I would run if I really needed to. 7% is over the edge.

So what is it particularly that gives you reason to think you know better than world experts? Perhaps you specialize in predictive statistics, epidemiology, or maybe infectious diseases.