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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 9:12:02 PM

TulliusDetritus

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap
I guess i like to know.

It is not a death sentence if you have it. 97% (or 98% or 99%) will defeat this nasty little thing. And yet somehow it managed to shut down entire states, spread utter chaos and toilet rolls magnates made it to the top of that Forbes list...

It's definitely a Spanish Flu 2.0 imho, but hopefully without the many dead.

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Post #: 541

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 9:25:08 PM

Canoerebel

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This is not a Spanish flu 2.0. That resulted in at least 40,000,000 deaths - some estimates double that.

As soon as Italy turns the corner, which might be any day or within a week, we'll know better what's going on. The bell-shaped-curve in Korea gives us some encouraging information, but Italy will give us much more. In both China and South Korea, the period of exponential increase was a matter of a few weeks or a month. Italy may be the same or more - one of the reasons the information from there is crucial to understanding how this thing works.

Mortality generally declines as healthcare protocols mature and improve for a given health crisis. Right now, estimates for this range from 1% to 3%. When all is said and done, it might be considerably less than 1%.

Those are early estimates that may be off. Again, Italy will be very helpful in zeroing in.

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)

Post #: 542

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 9:48:59 PM

TulliusDetritus

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quote:

but hopefully without the many dead

psst... you missed this part. If shutting down entire states is not a phenomenal "once-in-a-century" event then I don't know what's extraordinary to you.

Do not underestimate human stupidity. And besides, you seem to ignore a vast untouched part of the world errr India, Africa and Latin America. The poorest part of the planet go figure. They do not count?

What's going to happen exactly it the virus visits them? The climate protection is not that clear...

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 3/16/2020 9:50:32 PM >

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Post #: 543

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 10:02:05 PM

Zorch

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People in my part of PA have adjusted to the new normal. I didn't see any panic buying in the supermarket today. Some things like paper products are still out of stock. Others like milk are back. People are used to restaurants being carry-out or drive-thru (chairs are stacked on the tables). Traffic is much lighter, with everyone working from home. Parents have had to make day care arrangements since the schools are closed. State and local government offices are closed, so stuff has to be mailed in if it can't be done online. Life goes on.
Thankfully, I have not had to deal with any health care providers.

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)

Post #: 544

RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/16/2020 10:06:32 PM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is shutting down all bars, restaurants, movie theaters, and gyms in the state, effective 5 p.m. today. All gatherings of more than 50 people are banned as well, matching the new CDC recommendations about limiting events with 50 or more people for the next eight weeks. The new ruling comes just days after Hogan closed all Maryland public schools, and a day after he ordered the closures of all casinos, racetracks, and off-track betting parlors.

Now they've gone too far ... us drunks need the bars to share our miseries. It's time to march folks, we need to take back our society from the Closure-Virus!

On a similar note, these statistics arguments are ruining this thread. This used to be a place for information, now we have page after page of mindless prima-dona dick wagging. Move it to another thread guys!

I wonder where he gets the authority to do all of these closings, especially of private businesses. Especially since that can affect Interstate Commerce! I smell lawyers getting ready for lawsuits when this is over.

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Post #: 545

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 10:10:07 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

I'm hoping this is a great big deal of nothing myself. Who wouldn't?

I live in a small town. I live in an apartment reached up a lot of stairs to a 3rd floor attic where I basically encounter nobody.
I routinely have a month of food. 2 if I just don't feel like eating much.
Unfortunately, I've been living on disability longer than I care to, but it means I don't have to actually be anywhere.
So essentially, I'm sitting here, working on models, when not role gaming with my teddy bears (none of my toys wants to play my wargames against me sadly).
But Canada is shutting down rather quickly. There's nowhere to go, even if I felt like it. And it wouldn't be wise regardless.

I'm worried that this is going to have quite the mangled effect on the economy. No money being made, or earned.
Although, right at this moment, the grocery store I shop at has the usual parking lot of customers. No panic though.

I'm just glad I don't actually need to be anywhere.
I am a bit too close to 60.
I have no investments, I have no retirement fund. But I also have no debts or bills beyond rent.
I'm used to living on a sum of funds that most would consider technically impossible. You'd need to increase my pension before I could reach the poverty line eh. Not sure how I get by to be honest.

I'm hoping this all doesn't matter shortly. It's my birthday this month :) And I'm looking forward to going bike riding beginning of May.

I'm also hoping you all is still here this time next year.

Well, we haven't always agreed on everything and I noticed that no one else has commented but:

I wish you a HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!

_____________________________

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I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
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(in reply to MrsWargamer)

Post #: 546

RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/16/2020 10:17:13 PM

Zorch

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I wonder where he gets the authority to do all of these closings, especially of private businesses. Especially since that can affect Interstate Commerce! I smell lawyers getting ready for lawsuits when this is over.

Governments can close just about anything in the name of Public Health. I have not heard of any legal challenge to mandated closings, nor any instance of an establishment that insists on staying open being forced to close against its will. Any place that chooses to stay open could be sued by people who claim to have contracted the virus there.

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 547

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 10:37:47 PM

Canoerebel

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Edit: Ne'er mind.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/16/2020 10:41:57 PM >

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)

Post #: 548

RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/16/2020 10:54:04 PM

Lobster

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I wonder where he gets the authority to do all of these closings, especially of private businesses. Especially since that can affect Interstate Commerce! I smell lawyers getting ready for lawsuits when this is over.

Governments can close just about anything in the name of Public Health. I have not heard of any legal challenge to mandated closings, nor any instance of an establishment that insists on staying open being forced to close against its will. Any place that chooses to stay open could be sued by people who claim to have contracted the virus there.

Absolutely. All state governments have the power to declare an emergency and do whatever is necessary to protect the public. Mayors of cities are given the same latitude by the state legislatures. There will be no lawsuits.

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Post #: 549

RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/16/2020 11:01:18 PM

Zorch

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I wonder where he gets the authority to do all of these closings, especially of private businesses. Especially since that can affect Interstate Commerce! I smell lawyers getting ready for lawsuits when this is over.

Governments can close just about anything in the name of Public Health. I have not heard of any legal challenge to mandated closings, nor any instance of an establishment that insists on staying open being forced to close against its will. Any place that chooses to stay open could be sued by people who claim to have contracted the virus there.

Absolutely. All state governments have the power to declare an emergency and do whatever is necessary to protect the public. Mayors of cities are given the same latitude by the state legislatures. There will be no lawsuits.

Official From the state: https://6abc.com/health/governor-extends-covid-19-shutdown-across-pa-%7C-live/6018275/

HARRISBURG, Pennsylvania (WPVI) -- Gov. Tom Wolf extended a shutdown order Monday to the entire state of Pennsylvania in an effort to halt the spread of the coronavirus, although he also maintained that he would not send the National Guard or state police to force businesses to close or stop events.

Wolf acted in similar fashion as neighboring states, including Ohio, New York and New Jersey, as he closed schools statewide and a range of government offices in the days leading up to Monday.

The shutdown of nonessential government offices and nonessential business activity will begin Tuesday, he said.

"This isn't a decision that I take lightly at all," Wolf said during a news conference at the headquarters of the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. "It's one that I'm making because medical experts believe it's the only way we can prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed by patients."

Wolf had in recent days issued similar orders for four heavily populated southeastern Pennsylvania counties - Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery - where the state has confirmed most of its cases of COVID-19, while Philadelphia took a similar step Monday.

The number of positive cases in Pennsylvania grew Monday, surpassing 75.

Wolf's order is a blend of voluntary and mandatory actions. For instance, the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board said it was suspending gambling operations for all casinos. Wolf on Sunday night ordered bars and restaurants in five counties to close dine-in service and said businesses that do not adhere to the order could face penalties.

Still, he also said that he would not use force to close businesses, but he urged people to understand that all Pennsylvanians are in the fight together and said they owe it to one another not to spread the disease.

"People will be making their decisions what they do with their lives all across the commonwealth for the next days and weeks and months," Wolf said in response to a reporter's question about racetracks refusing to close unless forced. "What we ought to do is think not what should we do in terms what the law is, but what should we do in terms of what we owe to our fellow citizens."

(in reply to Lobster)

Post #: 550

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 11:28:50 PM

Cataphract88

Posts: 728
Joined: 10/5/2012
From: Britannia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrsWargamer

I'm hoping this is a great big deal of nothing myself. Who wouldn't?

I live in a small town. I live in an apartment reached up a lot of stairs to a 3rd floor attic where I basically encounter nobody.
I routinely have a month of food. 2 if I just don't feel like eating much.
Unfortunately, I've been living on disability longer than I care to, but it means I don't have to actually be anywhere.
So essentially, I'm sitting here, working on models, when not role gaming with my teddy bears (none of my toys wants to play my wargames against me sadly).
But Canada is shutting down rather quickly. There's nowhere to go, even if I felt like it. And it wouldn't be wise regardless.

I'm worried that this is going to have quite the mangled effect on the economy. No money being made, or earned.
Although, right at this moment, the grocery store I shop at has the usual parking lot of customers. No panic though.

I'm just glad I don't actually need to be anywhere.
I am a bit too close to 60.
I have no investments, I have no retirement fund. But I also have no debts or bills beyond rent.
I'm used to living on a sum of funds that most would consider technically impossible. You'd need to increase my pension before I could reach the poverty line eh. Not sure how I get by to be honest.

I'm hoping this all doesn't matter shortly. It's my birthday this month :) And I'm looking forward to going bike riding beginning of May.

I'm also hoping you all is still here this time next year.

Stay safe, and I hope you have a nice birthday.

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(in reply to MrsWargamer)

Post #: 551

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 11:39:44 PM

demyansk

Posts: 2840
Joined: 2/20/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Edit: Ne'er mind.

One reason of all this hysteria is lawsuits but the virus is dangerous too a point. But, also consequences when society closes down as well. Tough call, thank you China

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 552

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/16/2020 11:48:38 PM

Franciscus

Posts: 809
Joined: 12/22/2010
From: Portugal
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Hi folks

I have not participated in this thread yet

I am a portuguese cardiologist. We are on the beginning of the exponential curve of cases and the outcome will be terrible.

And we don�t know the true mortality rate, because we still have no idea what the denominator (true total of infections) is (the major factor being the lack of tests and the unknown number of asymptomatic infected). But it is not really relevant.

The big issue is that in most countries a significant percentage of known cases (conservately 5-10%) require intensive care units and ventilators. And in most countries there simply are not enough ICU beds and ventilators. We in Portugal have around 500 ICU beds with a population around 10 million. On a normal day around 90% of these beds are occupied with the �other� critically ill patients.
So, when we reach 1000 known patients (next thursday) we will have an extra 100 patients needing ICU care, and this number will then increase every day. Then people will start to die, not only from Covid but also from the �other� critical patients that will not stop to appear, the hospitals will collapse, and the physicians (the ones who do not get sick) will have to make decisions of who to let die.

The only way to try to mitigate this is not have the exponential growth, but the high contagiousness, lack of immunity and the criminal tardiness of politicians make this very difficult.

The health, cultural, economical and social repercussions will be, I�m afraid, huge.

< Message edited by Franciscus -- 3/16/2020 11:50:35 PM >

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Post #: 553

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 12:14:51 AM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Franciscus

Hi folks

I have not participated in this thread yet

I am a portuguese cardiologist. We are on the beginning of the exponential curve of cases and the outcome will be terrible.

And we don�t know the true mortality rate, because we still have no idea what the denominator (true total of infections) is (the major factor being the lack of tests and the unknown number of asymptomatic infected). But it is not really relevant.

The big issue is that in most countries a significant percentage of known cases (conservately 5-10%) require intensive care units and ventilators. And in most countries there simply are not enough ICU beds and ventilators. We in Portugal have around 500 ICU beds with a population around 10 million. On a normal day around 90% of these beds are occupied with the �other� critically ill patients.
So, when we reach 1000 known patients (next thursday) we will have an extra 100 patients needing ICU care, and this number will then increase every day. Then people will start to die, not only from Covid but also from the �other� critical patients that will not stop to appear, the hospitals will collapse, and the physicians (the ones who do not get sick) will have to make decisions of who to let die.

The only way to try to mitigate this is not have the exponential growth, but the high contagiousness, lack of immunity and the criminal tardiness of politicians make this very difficult.

The health, cultural, economical and social repercussions will be, I�m afraid, huge.

There is another thread here that might have information to help you:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=35&key=�

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Post #: 554

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 2:37:47 AM

z1812

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Vaccine testing has started. https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-1.5499244

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 3:57:44 AM

balto

Posts: 1123
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From: Maryland
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Stop reading the internet and stop the panic.., Pz Corp 2 will be out soon.

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Post #: 556

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 4:00:07 AM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

. . . Pz Corp 2 will be out soon.

Who cares?

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Post #: 557

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 12:57:08 PM

warspite1

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From: England
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So the Coronavirus becomes more real on a personal note.

Got the call yesterday that working from home was not optional and coming into the office was verboten.

So this is the first day of working from home while my little warspites are still at Uni/School and Mrs W is at work. Weird.

Can't say I am enjoying the whole 'working from home thing' frankly.

Something like this really brings home how relatively lucky the last few generations have been.

Sure I worry about the economic impact (the economies of the world are going to be hit on a massive scale), the social and mental impact (locking down humans isn't a long term solution) and of course the worry about where the disease will end up taking the human race. On a personal level I am at an age where this starts to be of concern, and with health issues that put me perhaps higher up the at risk scale than would otherwise be the case, a wife slightly older than me (although in more robust health god willing). I also worry about the disruption to my little cruisers - who are at key stages of their young adulthood/teenage years and their studies (the younger one in particular). So lots of worry, uncertainty and a general sense of foreboding.

But hey, it could be worse, it could be 1914, 1918 or 1939.....

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 3/17/2020 4:43:18 PM >

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 1:30:14 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Hey, Warspite, good luck!

When asked why he was chosen to command in the early days after Pearl Harbor, Admiral King replied, "When the going gets tough, they call on the sons a' bitches."

Assuming I remembered that right, it's a great quote. But it's more than that. More than being an SOB (though we may need our share of them). This may be a defining moment for our times, and those of us that are 30 to 70 are probably the leaders and will set the example. From Warspite household to JohnDillworth in NYC to Captain Beefhead in Seoul and across the world, lots of opportunities to lead by example. :)

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Post #: 559

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 1:36:43 PM

z1812

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All of the indirect consequential repercussions of the disease have really started to appear in the last week and a half. Everything from being advised that it is not a good idea for Seniors to see Grandchildren to those who have to make adjustments regarding work and/or travel. There is also a lot of concern about medical preconditions. I read this article this morning and thought it may be of interest to others.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-coronavirus-underlying-health-conditions-200317075009221.html

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Post #: 560

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 2:12:34 PM

Curtis Lemay

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Today's worldwide figures:
Total Cases = 188297
Total Recovered = 80848
Total Deaths = 7499
(Wikipedia)

That works out to 7499 / (7499 + 80848) = 8.5%

Up from 7.1% and 7.9%.

Keep on whistling past the graveyard.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 3/17/2020 3:08:49 PM >

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 2:57:32 PM

rico21

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It's my first day as confined and what neither the Soviets nor the aliens managed to do, put me in prison at home, the virus did it.
We were sold the thing so as not to contaminate people and continue to saturate hospitals.
* It's true, it's indisputable.
So why do I have the impression that it is also so that I die at home (if it has to happen!) Without being able to rush freely to hospitals and not be part of official statistics, you know, those that scare people.

< Message edited by rico21 -- 3/17/2020 3:00:41 PM >

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Post #: 562

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 3:07:41 PM

Lobster

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From: Third rock from the Sun.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

It's my first day as confined and what neither the Soviets nor the aliens managed to do, put me in prison at home, the virus did it.
We were sold the thing so as not to contaminate people and continue to saturate hospitals.
* It's true, it's indisputable.
So why do I have the impression that it is also so that I die at home (if it has to happen!) Without being able to rush freely to hospitals and not be part of official statistics, you know, those that scare people.

Do you think the numbers from Russia are higher than reported? In the U.S. it is thought the virus was present long before the first cases were reported.

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Post #: 563

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 3:26:14 PM

Lobster

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Updated 1:51 AM ET, Tue March 17, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/asia/coronavirus-xi-wuhan-anger-intl-hnk/index.html

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Post #: 564

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 3:31:08 PM

rico21

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I cannot speak for other countries, I cannot prove what I say because I do not have the scientific means to do so.
But I still have my own feelings about the events around me and I think cinserely that in France today, at least half of the population is infected and that many deaths will take place in the next two weeks.

< Message edited by rico21 -- 3/17/2020 3:32:20 PM >

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Post #: 565

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 4:06:08 PM

Lobster

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From: Third rock from the Sun.
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It seems very likely that the virus was seeded all over the planet from Wuhan before anything was done about. Since it can be spread without someone appearing sick and also since it could spread during the flu season basically hiding it's no surprise it's pandemic. Only a couple of high priority questions remain. Will warmer weather hamper the spread like it does the flu and will it mutate like the flu?

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Post #: 566

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 4:16:43 PM

z1812

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

I cannot speak for other countries, I cannot prove what I say because I do not have the scientific means to do so.
But I still have my own feelings about the events around me and I think cinserely that in France today, at least half of the population is infected and that many deaths will take place in the next two weeks.

I am sure you are right about more people being infected than what we know. According to WHO, many are simply contracting the Virus and recovering without needing treatment or being tested. Hopefully the majority are self isolating.

That is why true death percentages are impossible, simply because we have no idea of how many are truly infected.

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Post #: 567

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 4:29:00 PM

warspite1

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:
Total Cases = 188297
Total Recovered = 80848
Total Deaths = 7499
(Wikipedia)

That works out to 7499 / (7499 + 80848) = 8.5%

Up from 7.1% and 7.9%.

Keep on whistling past the graveyard.

warspite1

How come you are still here and not in that graveyard then? According to you and your ahem 'calculations', the US mortality rate is 55.9%.

But that is the last time I shall respond to you on this subject, you are too intelligent to not realise you are spouting unsubstantiated nonsense and obviously just enjoy the attention and your five minutes of fame as a rubbish grim reaper.

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 3/17/2020 4:40:15 PM >

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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 4:41:19 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:
Total Cases = 188297
Total Recovered = 80848
Total Deaths = 7499
(Wikipedia)

That works out to 7499 / (7499 + 80848) = 8.5%

Up from 7.1% and 7.9%.

Keep on whistling past the graveyard.

warspite1

How come you are still here and not in that graveyard then? According to you and your ahem 'calculations', the US mortality rate is 55.9%.

But that is the last time I shall respond to you on this subject, you are too intelligent to not realise you are spouting unsubstantiated nonsense and obviously just enjoy the attention and your five minutes of fame as a rubbish grim reaper.

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 569

RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/17/2020 5:05:46 PM

Lobster

Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Today's worldwide figures:
Total Cases = 188297
Total Recovered = 80848
Total Deaths = 7499
(Wikipedia)

That works out to 7499 / (7499 + 80848) = 8.5%

Up from 7.1% and 7.9%.

Keep on whistling past the graveyard.

warspite1

How come you are still here and not in that graveyard then? According to you and your ahem 'calculations', the US mortality rate is 55.9%.

But that is the last time I shall respond to you on this subject, you are too intelligent to not realise you are spouting unsubstantiated nonsense and obviously just enjoy the attention and your five minutes of fame as a rubbish grim reaper.