Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Five more doctors died today in Lombardy, bringing the tally to 13. Two of them were already retired but returned to work when the emergency hit.

Medical authorities are recruiting young medicine students still 9 months away from their final exams (thus also without Graduation). This should bring an increase of 13,000 souls in the workforce - even if their preparation level is barely acceptable.

Will the government provide malpractice insurance for these people?

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

HMMMM..... the font change above was done by "Copy".

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

HMMMM..... the font change above was done by "Copy".

To copy without formatting you can use Control-Shift-v.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.


Edit: *- it may be useful say for predicting acute care requirements for limited periods.

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

I provide this link for information only. I have no training in medicine, but it was an interesting read:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

As an Engineer I understand the merits of having accurate data to asses a problem.

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May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.

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So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months

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ORIGINAL: tolsdorff

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and I was outside today for 7 hours, cycling. And yesterday, and the day before that. (I am 47, and feel great, A LOT BETTER than anyone staying inside for whatever reason)
I greet a lot of people that also apparently risk their lives at great personal cost, going outside and enjoy a walk or a bicycle ride. I have contact with them, even touch them (WOW). Shake hands. I should be dead by now I guess. But I am not, nor are they.

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In applying the paper's findings to the forecast temperatures and humidity, the authors concluded that the arrival of summer and rainy seasons in the Northern Hemisphere can "effectively reduce the transmission of COVID-19," while the risk for the continued spread of the illness will remain in some countries in the Southern Hemisphere.
.
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Some experts are also pointing to the increased amount of UV rays from the sun the Northern Hemisphere will be subject to this time of year as a factor that could slow the virus.

"The sun angle changes significantly from the equinox to the solstice," AccuWeather meteorologist and Astronomy blogger Dave Samuhel explained. "That means a significant additional amount of solar radiation, or insolation, reaches the ground."

UV light has been proven to kill other strains from the coronavirus family, like SARS and MERS, but there isn't research yet showing the same is true for SARS-CoV-2.

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

snip for length

Today more than 1,000 deaths were reported from this disease. With the possible exception of early on in a place where numbers might have been misreported or poorly reported, this was the first day with deaths over 1,000. Presumably the number of deaths per day will continue to increase for some period.

This study makes reference to other studies which conclusions it agrees with. A reasonable figure of deaths worldwide from the flu is about 389,000 per year.

The number of 1,079 deaths reported so far today is just above that rate. For whatever this perspective is worth, the death rate is at the moment about equal to the flu and continued increases at the recent rate of change would put it well beyond the flu.

May I politely suggest that looking at per diem numbers in isolation does not provide an accurate statistical comparison*.

It is becoming the accepted wisdom that covid-19 started in about mid October in Wuhan. Although there are doubters, the PRC is saying they are past the bell after 5 months. So a more useful comparison would be a figure of 6 months, or indeed 12 months.

We have an almost 6 month figure for covid-19, the WHO reports at time of writing are:

226,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 9,500 deaths.

To get an annual figure that will probably be an over-estimate, let's quadruple that to around 38,000.

There you have it - the flu is a ten times worse killer than covid-19.


Edit: *- it may be useful say for predicting acute care requirements for limited periods.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

I provide this link for information only. I have no training in medicine, but it was an interesting read:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

As an Engineer I understand the merits of having accurate data to asses a problem.

A very good article. Thank you for posting it.

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In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.

The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.

One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

99% of patients killed by Coronavirus in Italy had existing illnesses, new study finds
19 March 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8130479/99-patients-killed-coronavirus-Italy-existing-illnesses-study-finds.html

"Research into 355 deaths found that only three (0.8%) had no other illnesses

Nearly half of them - 48.5% - already had three or even more health conditions

Another 25.6% had two other 'pathologies', while 25.1% had one other illness"

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ORIGINAL: alanschu

I think we're still early, especially as we have an accelerating rate of deaths per day world wide. In order for your 38,000 to be an overestimate, it means that the rate of deaths per day has to make a sudden shift downwards within a month. I'm not sure why you would think that that would happen ...

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ORIGINAL: obvert



What is missing in this type of comparison you’re making is the extension of this into new areas.