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RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/19/2020 6:51:56 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

From the reading I have done, I don't see that it will ever be possible to arrive at a "true" fatality percentage. There are many who get the virus, recover at home, and never report. Therefore any results are skewed.

The best anyone can do is follow the established protocols and protect themselves and their families.


Aye. Best course to follow.

Here are the current WHO numbers. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200308-sitrep-48-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=16f7ccef_4

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein

Q: What do you call a boomerang that doesn’t come back?
A: A stick.

(in reply to z1812)
Post #: 631
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 12:06:37 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

Bob used two data points. Same data points that people who are more qualified than anyone on this board. If you want to use different data points fine. Not my call. But when people call someone wrong because of the factual data points they use and continue down that line then I have to question their motives.

warspite1

Not sure I understand this point. Motives? I can't speak for anyone else but I've given my motives. I want to protect my family and I want to know the truth. Simple, No hidden agenda, no hidden reason, just simply a family man wanting to know what we are dealing with - good or bad.

As for calling someone wrong for using two factual data points? Please. Put it this way (and this isn't supposed to be a perfect analogy because there isn't one); I want to know the answer to 1 + ? + 3. I don't know what ? is but I have a range and I know its not 0. But what I will do is simply add 1 and 3 and totally ignore ?. There. I won't explain what the range of ? is. I won't suggest what method I've used and where my treatment of ? fits in. I shall simply ignore it. In so doing I have 'two factual data points' so the answer must be right, yes? No, its not right. And I just don't get why that is so difficult. And then to suggest that saying its wrong means there must be some ulterior motive? Really? Wow. No. It simply means I know the answer is wrong. I don't know by how much (I'm not an expert) but I do know its wrong. I have no motive for that other than I want to know the correct number so don't want the incorrect number spouted as gospel. There. That's my motive.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

If you are looking for the data points that tell you the risk of a people group in a particular area getting this virus then you need to look at local data, not global, not national but local. It varies greatly by where you are. You need to look at what is happening where you are, certainly not global. I'm certainly not an expert but even I know this.

warspite1

His numbers aren't designed for that though - whether global or local - it's just a scary overall % based on incomplete data.



It's fairly close to WHO numbers so take what you want from that. And at this point scary is good. Maybe it will keep the morons from spreading the virus any more than they are already. It's as though a large percentage of the population is made up of sociopaths not caring what their actions do to others.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein

Q: What do you call a boomerang that doesn’t come back?
A: A stick.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 632
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 2:40:28 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline 		The State of Pennsylvania has ordered all 'non-life-sustaining businesses' in Pennsylvania to close, and this will be enforced by citations, fines, or license suspensions. Attached is the list of what categories of businesses are allowed to be open. https://dig.abclocal.go.com/wpvi/pdf/20200319-Life-Sustaining-Business.pdf Evidently the voluntary closures weren't enough.



(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 633
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 3:26:37 AM   
balto

 

Posts: 1123
Joined: 3/4/2006
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Now see, this scare me. Corona virus..,pffthh, it is just another virus at my age. But in PA, will this cancel the World Board Gaming Championships (WBC) in Seven Springs PA from July 25, 2020 to August 2, 2020?? Jeezus, I have been studying and playing Terraforming Mars since December for the tournament!!

< Message edited by balto -- 3/20/2020 3:27:03 AM >

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 634
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:52:48 AM   
rommel222

 

Posts: 725
Joined: 9/21/2015
Status: offline 		Greetings to All,
Scary news from California:
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-gov-gavin-newsom-announces-statewide-stay-at-home-order

In my home state of NY, Gov (emperor) Cuomo now orders only 25% of any business workforce can report for work:
https://www.wamc.org/post/cuomo-reduces-workforce-25-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

All highways in NY state have electronic signs which flash: Stay home Save lives

The college I teach at has just sent notice that there will be no return to on campus classes and no graduation ceremony in Albany NY.

(in reply to balto)
Post #: 635
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 9:08:04 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

Now see, this scare me. Corona virus..,pffthh, it is just another virus at my age. But in PA, will this cancel the World Board Gaming Championships (WBC) in Seven Springs PA from July 25, 2020 to August 2, 2020?? Jeezus, I have been studying and playing Terraforming Mars since December for the tournament!!


Aye. Tis a dark time indeed.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein

Q: What do you call a boomerang that doesn’t come back?
A: A stick.

(in reply to balto)
Post #: 636
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 10:14:25 AM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

Now see, this scare me. Corona virus..,pffthh, it is just another virus at my age. But in PA, will this cancel the World Board Gaming Championships (WBC) in Seven Springs PA from July 25, 2020 to August 2, 2020?? Jeezus, I have been studying and playing Terraforming Mars since December for the tournament!!


Aye. Tis a dark time indeed.

We're all playing a real time, real world game of Pandemic.

(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 637
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 10:45:07 AM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

Now see, this scare me. Corona virus..,pffthh, it is just another virus at my age. But in PA, will this cancel the World Board Gaming Championships (WBC) in Seven Springs PA from July 25, 2020 to August 2, 2020?? Jeezus, I have been studying and playing Terraforming Mars since December for the tournament!!


Aye. Tis a dark time indeed.

We're all playing a real time, real world game of Pandemic.


And the exit strategies all revolve around the hope for effective vaccines in 12 to 18 months. But sooner or later before the vaccines are available the ropes will have to be loosened or economies will face a total collapse.

_____________________________

http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein

Q: What do you call a boomerang that doesn’t come back?
A: A stick.

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 638
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 2:12:08 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Plasma from people who have recovered is a cure.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 639
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 2:47:36 PM   
wesy


Posts: 224
Joined: 2/10/2002
From: Berkeley, CA
Status: offline 		I live in the SF Bay Area (Northern California) we've been in "shelter in place" for the past week. The Governer ordered shelter in place across the entire state last night. I imagine this will take place across the country over the next week or two. We'll see.

_____________________________

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Post #: 640
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 3:32:01 PM   
PipFromSlitherine

 

Posts: 1446
Joined: 6/23/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Plasma from people who have recovered is a cure.

Not really. It still has to be processed and correctly administered to the patient (usually via drip). It's also very hard to store. It's a very useful tool in research but it is not a practical solution.

Cheers

Pip

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follow me on Twitter here

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Post #: 641
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:09:06 PM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
Joined: 4/1/2004
From: The Zone™
Status: offline 		Feel free to ignore WHO's Dr. Bruce Aylward and the head of a visiting Chinese Red Cross delegation helping Italy.

_____________________________

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Post #: 642
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:09:53 PM   
Red2112

 

Posts: 1355
Joined: 9/9/2006
Status: offline 		Aside from what the virus might do, we have another big problem were numbers are real, and that´s the economy and what will happen in the long run. The debt of society...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWhk90ktKtg


_____________________________


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Post #: 643
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:12:58 PM   
Red2112

 

Posts: 1355
Joined: 9/9/2006
Status: offline 		Event 201, just before the pandemic (Nov.2019)...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

Makes on think whats going on!

--

< Message edited by Red2112 -- 3/20/2020 4:24:36 PM >

_____________________________


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Post #: 644
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:44:56 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PipFromSlitherine


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Plasma from people who have recovered is a cure.

Not really. It still has to be processed and correctly administered to the patient (usually via drip). It's also very hard to store. It's a very useful tool in research but it is not a practical solution.

Cheers

Pip


I did not state that it was easy.

I have also been in a hospital for 17 days getting 7 to 9 IVs a day with the last few days in isolation since the doctors did not know what was wrong. Some of the drugs I was given could not mix, either. One half litre to one litre IVs plus litres of H2O consumed meant that one more than one occasion I pissed out more than one litre at a time.

Then I was in a nursing home for over 16 months and I could still no live on my own so I went to assisted living.

If all it were to take was ONE IV drip to make a drastic turnaround compared to what I went through, I would call it easy.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to PipFromSlitherine)
Post #: 645
RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:52:21 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

Sorry but Bob's numbers do not line up with what the 'experts' are saying. His math formals are faulty and incorrect per the experts.

Per the 'experts':

  • The COVID-19 death rate — the number of known deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases — varies widely by country right now.
  • In Italy, as of Tuesday, it was about 8%, while in the US it was 1.7%.
  • Worldwide, more than 212,000 people have been infected with the new coronavirus, and at least 8,700 people have died.
  • Generally, the death rate seems to decrease as more people are tested and cases are confirmed.

    The worst areas are: Italy (7.94%), Iran (6.11%), Spain (4.5%), and China (3.98%).

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-current-fatalities-compared-to-cases-2020-3

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

    • Be sure to keep "experts" in quotes! Anybody hawking the above garbage is no true expert.

    If you obtain the death rate via dividing deaths by total cases, you are effectively counting all unresolved cases as recovered - that NONE will result in deaths. I child could see that that is baloney.

    And, yes, I sat and watched newscasters post those very figures on TV yesterday. Think how wrong the figure for the US is: We have thousands of cases, but only a few hundred that have been resolved!

    _____________________________

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    Bob Cross's TOAW Site

    (in reply to Zovs)
    Post #: 646
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:54:07 PM   
    Curtis Lemay


    Posts: 12969
    Joined: 9/17/2004
    From: Houston, TX
    Status: offline
    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Lobster


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: loki100


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Lobster

    ...

    Bob used two data points. Same data points that people who are more qualified than anyone on this board. If you want to use different data points fine. Not my call. But when people call someone wrong because of the factual data points they use and continue down that line then I have to question their motives.
    ...


    There are two problems with his 'data' points and how he combines them. First, the infected N is too low, we know this not least as (for eg) the UK stopped proper testing unless you were admitted to hospital. So going back to my table above, we only have the ratio between disease+hospital admission and outcome.

    Second, lets make the heroic assumption that his data is correct and complete. We know/strongly fear, that this thing is going to infect most people - hence all the various states trying to delay this so as to keep some functioning society as it works through the population. His numbers can only be applied to that near complete population group if (and only if) the sample of infected is typical of the wider population. Its not. Which is why statisticians then apply all sorts of moderating factors to come up with estimates using the data from the sample (and that is what he has) to the full population.

    Ignoring this expertise and process is pretty obtuse.


    Don't even bother. The only official figures you can rely on are those monitored. We all know there are thousands and thousands that have the virus and are undetected. Monitored cases are the only ones that anyone can rely on. Regardless of how many suppositions, theories, educated guesses and models based on those things they are just that, educated guesses.

    Thank you, Jack. Yes, Loki's figures are exactly that: Glorified guesses. They can't be arrived at without speculating about unknowns.

    _____________________________

    My TOAW web site:

    Bob Cross's TOAW Site

    (in reply to Lobster)
    Post #: 647
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:55:37 PM   
    Curtis Lemay


    Posts: 12969
    Joined: 9/17/2004
    From: Houston, TX
    Status: offline     		Today's figures:
    Total Cases: 255729
    Total Recovered: 89918
    Total Deaths: 10495
    (Wikipedia)

    Death Rate: 10495 / (10495 + 89918) = 10.5%

    _____________________________

    My TOAW web site:

    Bob Cross's TOAW Site

    (in reply to Curtis Lemay)
    Post #: 648
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:57:09 PM   
    warspite1


    Posts: 41353
    Joined: 2/2/2008
    From: England
    Status: offline
    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Zovs

    Per the 'experts':

  • The COVID-19 death rate — the number of known deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases


    • Be sure to keep "experts" in quotes! Anybody hawking the above garbage is no true expert.

    If you obtain the death rate via dividing deaths by total cases, you are effectively counting all unresolved cases as recovered - that NONE will result in deaths. I child could see that that is baloney.

    warspite1

    +1


    < Message edited by warspite1 -- 3/20/2020 4:59:08 PM >

    _____________________________

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    (in reply to Curtis Lemay)
    Post #: 649
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 4:58:32 PM   
    warspite1


    Posts: 41353
    Joined: 2/2/2008
    From: England
    Status: offline
    quote:

    ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

    Today's figures:
    Total Cases: 255729
    Total Recovered: 89918
    Total Deaths: 10495
    (Wikipedia)

    Death Rate: 10495 / (10495 + 89918) = 10.5%
    warspite1

    But then sadly, equal amounts of garbage is produced


    _____________________________

    England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



    (in reply to Curtis Lemay)
    Post #: 650
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 5:16:45 PM   
    TulliusDetritus


    Posts: 5521
    Joined: 4/1/2004
    From: The Zone™
    Status: offline     		Our cardiologist contributor (Franciscus, he knows how hospitals work) already told us that the mortality rate is sort of missing the point.

    The scary point is NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world can absorb the really sick cases if you don't stop the virus from infecting right and left.

    NOT A SINGLE ONE

    _____________________________

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    Post #: 651
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 5:22:51 PM   
    rico21


    Posts: 2990
    Joined: 3/11/2016
    Status: offline     		I am dismayed, stunned by the fact that no one in the world knows if being infected by several people is more dangerous than by one.
    The answer to this question is the key to our survival and no study is launched.
    I therefore launch this appeal to the real experts, the false knowledgeable, the backbiters, the disbelievers, the deviants ...
    Find the answer, your survival depends on it.

    (in reply to Lobster)
    Post #: 652
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 5:41:29 PM   
    *Lava*


    Posts: 1924
    Joined: 2/9/2004
    Status: offline     		Jeez... you folks are crazy.

    There are existing anti-viral drugs such as chloroquine which have been shown to be effective in treating the virus (for quite some time in fact).

    Existing anti-viral drugs (which have already been tested for safety) have not been released because the FDA has not had a chance to do long term studies on its effectiveness. Tests are on-going.

    Yesterday the US administration woke up and stated that anyone who wants to be treated with these "experimental" drugs (remember the FDA has not finished any long term studies on effectiveness) will be allowed to do so.

    I submit that we will see a turnaround quite soon.

    Bye the bye... I read that there was a study done in which a small area was saturated with tamiflu to see if it would have any effect on the spread of the disease. The result was that the flu was stopped stone cold.

    The first step in any such appearance of a new, potentially deadly virus is to develop a rapid test. The next is to try existing anti-viral drugs for effectiveness. The long range strategy is to develop a vaccine, however, we must remember that vaccines aren't always 100% effective. So testing and treatment, becomes job number 1.

    Why it has taken so long to deal with this virus, I have not a clue. Perhaps we as a society should adopt the Japanese social pact in which individuals who as sick, "politely" wear masks. Personally, I'm getting pretty ****ing tired of folks sneezing their flu all over me... because they can.

    We all need to learn from this experience. Whether we will or not is doubtful.

    _____________________________


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    Post #: 653
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 6:07:09 PM   
    *Lava*


    Posts: 1924
    Joined: 2/9/2004
    Status: offline     		Read this: Coronavirus in Washington state: Patient says Ebola drug saved his life

    There are effective anti-virals out there and they will soon be thrown at the virus en masse. Folks need to chill.

    (in reply to *Lava*)
    Post #: 654
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 6:28:25 PM   
    rico21


    Posts: 2990
    Joined: 3/11/2016
    Status: offline
    quote:

    ORIGINAL: rico21


    I therefore launch this appeal to the real experts, the false knowledgeable, the backbiters, the disbelievers, the deviants ...



    ..the Mickey mouses, the Donalds...

    (in reply to rico21)
    Post #: 655
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/20/2020 8:55:07 PM   
    Zorch

     

    Posts: 7087
    Joined: 3/7/2010
    Status: offline     		Science News has an article about 'Why some heart patients may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19'
    People with hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk severe bouts of the disease

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-some-heart-patients-especially-vulnerable

    (in reply to rico21)
    Post #: 656
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/21/2020 12:36:11 AM   
    Franciscus


    Posts: 809
    Joined: 12/22/2010
    From: Portugal
    Status: offline
    quote:

    ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

    Our cardiologist contributor (Franciscus, he knows how hospitals work) already told us that the mortality rate is sort of missing the point.

    The scary point is NO HEALTHCARE SYSTEM in the world can absorb the really sick cases if you don't stop the virus from infecting right and left.

    NOT A SINGLE ONE


    I can’t stress this enough !!
    What is happening in Italy is a first-world healthcare system overloaded with too much critically ill patients in a short period of time.

    The tragedy is compounded by the fact that many of the critically ill covid patients die for lack of resources, but the mortality of the other critically ill patients (with other diseases like heart attacks, strokes, bacterial pneumonia, accident victims, etc) will also increase dramatically because the healthcare system has collapsed.

    It is a tragedy that will change our world

    _____________________________

    Former AJE team member

    (in reply to TulliusDetritus)
    Post #: 657
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/21/2020 2:17:13 AM   
    UP844


    Posts: 1662
    Joined: 3/3/2016
    From: Genoa, Republic of Genoa (occupied by Italy)
    Status: offline     		+1

    _____________________________

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    Long Range Fire (A7.22)........1/2 FP

    (in reply to Franciscus)
    Post #: 658
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/21/2020 2:11:19 PM   
    Lobster


    Posts: 5104
    Joined: 8/8/2013
    From: Third rock from the Sun.
    Status: offline     		WHO situation report 20 March:

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200320-sitrep-60-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=d2bb4f1f_2

    _____________________________

    http://www.operationbarbarossa.net/

    Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and I’m not sure about the universe-Einstein

    Q: What do you call a boomerang that doesn’t come back?
    A: A stick.

    (in reply to UP844)
    Post #: 659
    RE: FROM THE RED ZONE - 3/21/2020 2:24:30 PM   
    Curtis Lemay


    Posts: 12969
    Joined: 9/17/2004
    From: Houston, TX
    Status: offline     		Today's Worldwide figures:
    Total Cases: 282395
    Total Recovered: 93189
    Total Deaths: 11822
    (Wikipedia)

    Death Rate: 11822 \ (11822 + 93189) = 11.3%

    Review for the week, starting Sunday:

    7.1%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 9.4%, 9.8%, 10.5%, 11.3%.

    _____________________________

    My TOAW web site:

    Bob Cross's TOAW Site

    (in reply to Lobster)
    Post #: 660
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