Matrix Games Forums

 Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  49 50 [51] 52 53   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:34:37 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		London report.

We managed to get out twice again today. Really pleasant. A trip to the playground, with hand sanitiser in use. Lots of bird chasing today anyway, so not too touch focused. Again, only 3-4 families at a time. The last day of schools and nurseries being open though which will change things incredibly.

A huge move by the govt today, pledging to give those out of work 80% of their pay. This was quickly followed by an 80% reduction in our nursery fee during the closure, and the added benefit of some distance learning each day from the key educators. So that was all good news.

Friends are now planning cocktail hours on FaceTime, zoom or google hangouts. Essentially sitting in our homes and drinking while talking to friends on screens, but a lot of them instead of just one at a time. Huge dance parties of up to 7k are being organised but the younger crowds. My wife is having a group meeting with the local mamas right now, about 8-10 all on a chat. So there is some interesting connection going on that wasn't happening before in quite such persistent group focused ways.

Also just heard in the nightly briefing that "following agreement of all the four nations of the UK, Johnson said all cafes, bars, pubs and restaurants must close tonight. Night clubs, theatres, gyms, cinemas and leisure centres must also close on the same timescale."

I'm predicting a lockdown imminently, with similar restrictions to those elsewhere in Europe. I'm only hoping the UK changes the stipulation most commonly used that only one person can get out of the house. Not getting to the park with my daughter will be very hard. Also because she's three and has no idea anything is wrong right now. We're just on holiday.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1501
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:38:25 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"Give me liberty, or give me death!"




"Take my liberty, I'am scared to death."

Liberty is a conundrum in the social contract that holds societies together. Letting people do whatever they feel like has never held a society together - there has to be laws and regulations to guide behaviour. It turns out that once your liberties begin affecting your neighbours, their liberties are being violated. An example would be playing music really loud such that the neighbours cannot hear their TV or enjoy the tranquility of their patio. Whose rights are more important?

In a life or death situation such as this epidemic, I suggest that the first item in the declaration of independence indicates priority - life is listed before liberty. IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1502
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:39:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		New Hampire motto: Live Free or Die

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/20/2020 8:40:12 PM >

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1503
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:41:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		BBfanboy, I agree 100%. But, man, are there awesome ironies in your declaration: life ahead of liberty; especially when the liberty might result in the death of an innocent person. Wow. Yes. If only the civilized people of the world agreed with that sentiment.


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"Give me liberty, or give me death!"




"Take my liberty, I'am scared to death."

Liberty is a conundrum in the social contract that holds societies together. Letting people do whatever they feel like has never held a society together - there has to be laws and regulations to guide behaviour. It turns out that once your liberties begin affecting your neighbours, their liberties are being violated. An example would be playing music really loud such that the neighbours cannot hear their TV or enjoy the tranquility of their patio. Whose rights are more important?

In a life or death situation such as this epidemic, I suggest that the first item in the declaration of independence indicates priority - life is listed before liberty. IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1504
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:42:31 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

More than 70% of Coronavirus deaths in Italy are men and scientists admit they are 'mystified' by the disparity between genders


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8135211/More-70-coronavirus-deaths-Italy-men.html


"At least 3,400 people in Italy have died of the devastating disease - it yesterday announced it had a higher death toll than China - but less than 1,000 of them have been women"

I use to joke that "they" would release a virus that would kill just men.


I'd guess this is more of a social gender difference with men covering more territory, spending more time out of the home, and seeing more people. There may also be the bravado/carelessness that they wouldn't be affected. In general when you hear or see of those now breaking curfew, the majority are men.

This is mostly old men, but men in general are more risk-taking than women.


It could also be due to worse health, including the use of cigarettes.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1505
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:47:26 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		There's a lot of buzz about chloraquine, the anti-malarial drug now being touted as a possible treatment, even a cure for Covid-19. There are a few non-breathless, non-media publications at NIH, should you be interested. Here's a French article giving a short overview of the trials in France, which gave the most promising results.

However this plays out, it does seem that it would be extremely useful in boosting the resistance of medical workers, and reducing the amount of time that serious cases would otherwise spend in hospital beds. Even if it only cut the recovery time in half (and it seems to do more than that), it would effectively double bed availability.

_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

AE-Allied Setup

Japan Air-Engine Plan

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1506
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:49:39 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

There's a lot of buzz about chloraquine, the anti-malarial drug now being touted as a possible treatment, even a cure for Covid-19. There are a few non-breathless, non-media publications at NIH, should you be interested. Here's a French article giving a short overview of the trials in France, which gave the most promising results.

However this plays out, it does seem that it would be extremely useful in boosting the resistance of medical workers, and reducing the amount of time that serious cases would otherwise spend in hospital beds. Even if it only cut the recovery time in half (and it seems to do more than that), it would effectively double bed availability.


There is a hospitalized COVID-19 patient in our area who they are trying chloraquine on.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1507
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:50:03 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.


That is horrific thinking. "People gave up ALL their liberties, but we did save the life of one person. Enjoy your slavery!"


_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

AE-Allied Setup

Japan Air-Engine Plan

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1508
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:54:18 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Spain is the next train wreck. Today they moved into 3rd place in the world in terms of known cases (see attachment), but they've only tested 30,000 (they finally appeared in the wiki testing table today), substantially less than Italy's 182K.

This article talks about the state of testing in Spain. The tests they use take a long time to process, and while Spain has the ability to manufacture their own kits, they are dependent on parts from outside, and those sources are drying up. As a result, the testing guidelines specifically exclude using tests for contact tracing, so you can imagine what's coming.



Really too bad about Spain. I thought they had enough warning to get testing going, and prepare a bit. Crazy how fast this goes once it takes hold in a place. They're testing per million is where the UK was yesterday, but the UK has jumped a lot, yet positives/1000 are way lower than Spain.

I've been wondering if mortality numbers multiplied by 0.5% (low mortality estimate) might be a closer indicator of actual cases in the respective countries. For the UK today that would be 177. The resulting number would be 35,400 cases. Judging by the information that a fifteen fold increase in critical Covid cases are now coming into hospitals here, I'd say at least this and probably higher. This may get bad here soon too.


The testing chart data is interesting about the positives/1000 tests. Italy and the US are practically on par for that stat, France is not far behind and Spain has double the number of positives while Canada has only 14.8 or so per thousand tests. I figure this means that Italy, the US, France and Spain did not start testing early enough and now are mostly testing people who have already shown strong indications they have the virus. This in turn indicates the lack of test kits or personnel/venues/geographic coverage to test broadly where there is any suspicion at all that the virus could be there. The latter is what is needed to get a handle on this.

Canada has been lucky with most of the travel-related initial cases coming in to Toronto and Vancouver. But we let it get out to other cities around the country before starting closures and travel restrictions so we will likely see a sharp rise for a few weeks before it tapers off. Still, I think we are luckier than most and will have a modest curve to suffer. We might even end our quarantine earlier than most countries.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1509
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:54:27 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline 		Science News has an article about 'Why some heart patients may be especially vulnerable to COVID-19'
People with hypertension and cardiovascular disease risk severe bouts of the disease

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-why-some-heart-patients-especially-vulnerable



(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1510
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:57:38 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline 		I just want to thank all of you gentlemen again for keeping things quite civil in this discussion. Unlike the fiasco running in the General Discussion forum, this one continues to be a very valuable exchange of information, thoughts and discussion.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1511
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:58:21 PM   
pontiouspilot


Posts: 1127
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline 		It will also be interesting to see how the virus may prefer smokers to non-smokers. China is a country still badly hung up on tobacco; as I recall older generations of Italians were similarly disposed to smoking.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1512
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:58:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		+1, USSAmerica


(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1513
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 8:59:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		There was a report yesterday that younger people in China seemed disproportionately affected, possibly due to smoking; and ditto with young folks in the west who vape.


quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

It will also be interesting to see how the virus may prefer smokers to non-smokers. China is a country still badly hung up on tobacco; as I recall older generations of Italians were similarly disposed to smoking.


(in reply to pontiouspilot)
Post #: 1514
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:03:17 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.


That is horrific thinking. "People gave up ALL their liberties, but we did save the life of one person. Enjoy your slavery!"


I am not suggesting there should be no liberties. You should be free to drive the car and roam the sidewalks on foot, but in the situation we are in it must be OK for the government to make rules about how we do it. That applies to all kinds of activities. There is no absolute and complete "liberty" or "freedom" unless you are a hermit with no neighbours.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1515
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:10:09 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

I just want to thank all of you gentlemen again for keeping things quite civil in this discussion. Unlike the fiasco running in the General Discussion forum, this one continues to be a very valuable exchange of information, thoughts and discussion.
warspite1

Not really a 'fiasco'. A robust exchange of views. One person decided that the best way to calculate death rate would be to completely and utterly ignore the biggest variable in the data set. Despite numerous more measured heads pointing out why that is not a sensible idea, he continues to provide this alarmist nonsense on a daily basis. Fiasco? Not really.




_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 1516
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:13:59 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

I just want to thank all of you gentlemen again for keeping things quite civil in this discussion. Unlike the fiasco running in the General Discussion forum, this one continues to be a very valuable exchange of information, thoughts and discussion.
warspite1

Not really a 'fiasco'. A robust exchange of views. One person decided that the best way to calculate death rate would be to completely and utterly ignore the biggest variable in the data set. Despite numerous more measured heads pointing out why that is not a sensible idea, he continues to provide this alarmist nonsense on a daily basis. Fiasco? Not really.


Wouldn't be surprised if cyber-warfare pros are poking at every discussion to try and turn it into a shouting match. I am very suspicious of every troll that posts outrageous stuff and refuses to listen to reasonable criticism.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1517
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:20:50 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.


That is horrific thinking. "People gave up ALL their liberties, but we did save the life of one person. Enjoy your slavery!"


I am not suggesting there should be no liberties. You should be free to drive the car and roam the sidewalks on foot, but in the situation we are in it must be OK for the government to make rules about how we do it. That applies to all kinds of activities. There is no absolute and complete "liberty" or "freedom" unless you are a hermit with no neighbours.

You go too far in your brief, absolute statement. There must be some reasonable balance.

ALL activities could result in the death of an innocent person. People like to pretend otherwise when promoting one course of action over another. There are ALWAYS consequences.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1518
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:28:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Sometimes one person's exercise of a given liberty may directly result in the death of an innocent person. This can be at a 1:1 ratio repeated millions of times over many decades. Then a society has to choose which has priority: the given liberty or the given life. It's very hard and very sad.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1519
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:37:05 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

+1, USSAmerica




+2



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1520
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:44:13 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		About the interpretation of the number tested per thousand, which is Lombardy in up to 381/1000 positive, how do we interpret this stat?

Does this probably mean nearly half of the people in the region are positive (considering those not tested or asymptomatic)?

I'm curious as these numbers are all over the place in various countries and regions, with Spain at a whopping 572/1000!

We know they're not testing a lot, but also that they're getting a LOT of positives.

I'm also perplexed by the low UK number considering they've mostly tested people going into hospitals in high risk categories, but only get 46/1000 positive.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/20/2020 9:47:52 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1521
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:47:55 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

I just want to thank all of you gentlemen again for keeping things quite civil in this discussion. Unlike the fiasco running in the General Discussion forum, this one continues to be a very valuable exchange of information, thoughts and discussion.
warspite1

Not really a 'fiasco'. A robust exchange of views. One person decided that the best way to calculate death rate would be to completely and utterly ignore the biggest variable in the data set. Despite numerous more measured heads pointing out why that is not a sensible idea, he continues to provide this alarmist nonsense on a daily basis. Fiasco? Not really.


Wouldn't be surprised if cyber-warfare pros are poking at every discussion to try and turn it into a shouting match. I am very suspicious of every troll that posts outrageous stuff and refuses to listen to reasonable criticism.

Yes...trolls delight in the opportunity to incite panic and distrust. Even amateur trolls.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1522
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:51:00 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

I just want to thank all of you gentlemen again for keeping things quite civil in this discussion. Unlike the fiasco running in the General Discussion forum, this one continues to be a very valuable exchange of information, thoughts and discussion.
warspite1

Not really a 'fiasco'. A robust exchange of views. One person decided that the best way to calculate death rate would be to completely and utterly ignore the biggest variable in the data set. Despite numerous more measured heads pointing out why that is not a sensible idea, he continues to provide this alarmist nonsense on a daily basis. Fiasco? Not really.



It's not the numbers he (Curtis) posts that I have a problem with; it's his logic that mortality can be calculated from them, and from them alone.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1523
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 9:59:09 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		To put things into perspective:

quote:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 10,067 deaths reported worldwide; 205 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 20, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

The COVID-19 situation is changing rapidly. Since this disease is caused by a new virus, people do not have immunity to it, and a vaccine may be many months away. Doctors and scientists are working on estimating the mortality rate of COVID-19, but at present, it is thought to be higher than that of most strains of the flu.


https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

Yes, the Corona virus is bad and in some places even worse. But as the medical people and scientists learn more about it, there are now treatments for it.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Zorch)
Post #: 1524
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:15:36 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline 		I read about a week ago in regards to the meaning of the numbers out there, in particular in the US, that the test the US is using (I believe as opposed to China and Germany and some others) only identifies people who are shedding virus at the time of the test. Other tests being used elsewhere identify people who at some point had the virus and have recovered. So, particularly in China, where the number of active cases has been brought down substantially, considerable weight can be given to them, and at this point the mortality rate there is 4.4%. In the US, not only has very little testing been done compared to some other countries, but these tests cannot identify recovered cases after the fact. So we can't really rely on the US numbers for much.

_____________________________



(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1525
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:21:18 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline 		I also heard today but I'm not sure it is true, that the chloroquinone dose used in the case of malaria is one half of a fatal dose. If that's true we don't need any cowboys promoting its use except under careful supervision by medical professionals. We all know there's going to be people looking to buy the stuff on line. In my case I'm allergic to quinine so even a much smaller dose might be lethal. Plus, it is only being discussed as a treatment for symptoms, not as a cure.

_____________________________



(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1526
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:28:08 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		Looks like the promised high rate of testing in the US has finally kicked into gear. On the attachment, look at the total US tests yesterday vs. today. Tripled.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/20/2020 10:30:10 PM >

_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

AE-Allied Setup

Japan Air-Engine Plan

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1527
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:31:00 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 514
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

About the interpretation of the number tested per thousand, which is Lombardy in up to 381/1000 positive, how do we interpret this stat?

Does this probably mean nearly half of the people in the region are positive (considering those not tested or asymptomatic)?

I'm curious as these numbers are all over the place in various countries and regions, with Spain at a whopping 572/1000!

We know they're not testing a lot, but also that they're getting a LOT of positives.

I'm also perplexed by the low UK number considering they've mostly tested people going into hospitals in high risk categories, but only get 46/1000 positive.





The only way I can make the numbers work is that the chart is mislabeled and what that column is showing is the positive cases/million (as is the case in the top chart)

So for the UK latest case number is 3983. So 3983/66.4 gives you 60 cases per million population.

I thought your idea calculating backwards from the numbers of deaths was interesting. If you assume an eventual mortality rate of 2% that would give c.170,000 infections in Italy. That sounds like a massive number but the other (very sobering) way of looking at it is that that actually only mean that 0.2% of Italy's population has been infected so far. I can't think of a way to look at the figures that will give anything other than the conclusion that we are in for a long and painful ride with this.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1528
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:38:27 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I read about a week ago in regards to the meaning of the numbers out there, in particular in the US, that the test the US is using (I believe as opposed to China and Germany and some others) only identifies people who are shedding virus at the time of the test. Other tests being used elsewhere identify people who at some point had the virus and have recovered. So, particularly in China, where the number of active cases has been brought down substantially, considerable weight can be given to them, and at this point the mortality rate there is 4.4%. In the US, not only has very little testing been done compared to some other countries, but these tests cannot identify recovered cases after the fact. So we can't really rely on the US numbers for much.


Not true. Everybody is using some variety of PCR testing (read the "Test methods" section in the linked document), which only looks for active infections. I remember reading (but can't find the link) that China started off using an old SARS test which could sort of do both, but gave a high rate of false readings. The original US CDC test was not only slow, but had an inaccurate sub-test that made the whole thing invalid. That has long since been corrected. In general, everyone is now using PCR tests, all have high reliability, and all are designed to look only for active infections.

_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

AE-Allied Setup

Japan Air-Engine Plan

(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1529
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/20/2020 10:49:06 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"Give me liberty, or give me death!"




"Take my liberty, I'am scared to death."

Liberty is a conundrum in the social contract that holds societies together. Letting people do whatever they feel like has never held a society together - there has to be laws and regulations to guide behaviour. It turns out that once your liberties begin affecting your neighbours, their liberties are being violated. An example would be playing music really loud such that the neighbours cannot hear their TV or enjoy the tranquility of their patio. Whose rights are more important?

In a life or death situation such as this epidemic, I suggest that the first item in the declaration of independence indicates priority - life is listed before liberty. IMO this applies to all liberties that could result in the death of an innocent person.



And standing in a raging fire will keep you warm.

You will know it when you truly see it.

_____________________________


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1530
Page:   <<   < prev  49 50 [51] 52 53   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  49 50 [51] 52 53   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

0.766