RE: OT: Corona virus

Matrix Games Forums

Forums Register Login Photo Gallery Member List Search Calendars FAQ

My Profile Inbox Address Book My Subscription My Forums Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest

Users viewing this topic: none

Printable Version

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus

Page: << < prev 53 54 [55] 56 57 next > >>

Message

<< Older Topic Newer Topic >>

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:49:12 AM

Ian R

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

The NYT said a day ago that the US had tested 25,000 while New South Wales, Australia had tested 33,000. Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere and experiencing Summer, where the virus has gone "poof", not there.

On the BBC news ( a very trustworthy source) a few minutes ago they said Australia had just reported a rise of over 1000 cases, its biggest one-day increase. Doesn't sound like "poof" to me. Perhaps different regions of Australia are having different experiences. Melbourne is much more temperate than Darwin, for example.

The latest numbers on the Department of health website are:

"As at 6.30am on 21 March 2020, there have been 874 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 165 new cases since 6.30am yesterday. "

It is now 1057 hrs on the 22nd here, so I'll watch for the next update and confirm (or not) that report.

Looks like BBC got the total cases instead of the daily increase. Maybe their research people are working from home ...
Thanks for the info!

Here is the update:

"As at 6.30am on 22 March 2020, there have been 1,098 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 224 new cases since 6.30am yesterday."

_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to BBfanboy)

Post #: 1621

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:49:14 AM

alanschu

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

I found a different site that also had numbers similar to the WHO, but find its daily numbers jump around a bit (WHO had an issue with that too). Though Raw numbers aren't really what I'm looking at for this particular analysis.

I still used Worldometers charts, which don't include today's values yet.

Looking at China's death rate, there is a bit more than 3 weeks of steady increases to the daily deaths. Jan 22 - Feb 12th (21 days). Then it plateaued for about another 11 days (Feb 12 to Feb 23). After that it was a quick decline, and then a steady decline for the the tail.

Italy's is about 2 weeks in on their increasing numbers. If it follows China, it could still be about another week of increasing daily totals and might continue until March 28. If it plateaus the same way, it'll remain around that daily count until 11 days or so, which would be April 8th. I didn't pick up the first few days of Italy's deaths as they didn't seem to match a linear trend line. It's possible that Italy is a couple days closer in any case (which would obviously be ideal).

I'm not sure I agree with that one medium post's that this isn't particularly contagious though. There's conflating variables for the spike in Italy's deaths, and I am more inclined to believe "this got around and our health care system couldn't keep up" as being a bigger factor than "the quarantine started on March 6th, and that's when the infection/death counts started to go up."

Based on how many more deaths Italy has than China, with Hubei and Italy both having similarish populations, I wouldn't be surprised if the infection rate of Italy is quite a bit higher and testing measures is difficult to ascertain.

I really hope no other countries have issues with health care capacity.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to alanschu)

Post #: 1622

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:57:52 AM

alanschu

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Just remember, that China is a little more densely populated than Alberta. If you need some fresh air, just go visit Lake Louise.

Of course. Was just talking about what the messaging was like. I live in Edmonton and there were a few cases (including one in my office tower). But I think most of us are "we don't want Italy" and there's a hefty dose of caution.

I'm not particularly worried and my wife and I can go for a walk from our condo. But my wife is still working and her store was super busy (she works at a Home Depot and people were stocking up on home improvement projects). Today was the first day I had heard where they were actually mitigating the amount of people allowed into stores which sounds a bit more in line with what Singapore is asking.

As always, if the numbers remain low at what point is it "this was a waste of time and money and did more harm than good" versus "it's actually good that we did this."

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 1623

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 2:48:46 AM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

Just say "I don't know if it worked or not, but we did not get hit as hard as we could have." Say that if people complain that it was not needed, just like suspenders and a belt.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to alanschu)

Post #: 1624

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 2:57:07 AM

pontiouspilot

Posts: 1127
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline

I'm in Alberta. Ontario is one of the worst in terms of tests/100k. Here one test being done/185 Albertans, with positive ratio of 1/105 tests. (as per Calgary Herald and CBC).

Manitoba looks to be doing well so far...fingers crossed.

(in reply to BBfanboy)

Post #: 1625

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 3:34:51 AM

Kull

Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline

Finally getting some granularity out of Spain (see attached graphs showing current cases per province and increases over time. The number of tests reported on the wiki spiked from 30K to 355K based on this article. Probably a mixture of previous under-reporting and dubious numbers. How they went from nowhere to "more tests than any country in the world" in just two days stretches credulity (round numbers are usually a tipoff that somebody is guessing). Especially given the healthcare system meltdown currently in-process. I don't buy it.

Edit: To clarify, the cases counts, deaths, and province numbers look legit.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/22/2020 3:38:46 AM >

_____________________________

AE-Japan Setup

AE-Allied Setup

Japan Air-Engine Plan

(in reply to pontiouspilot)

Post #: 1626

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 9:00:41 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: pbiggar

I have been lurking in he forum for some time, but I do feel a need to respond to this post. I read the article a couple of times to follow the data that led to conclusion that "The data is overwhelming at this point that community-based spread and airborne transmission is not a threat" and we should all keep going to work.

Included in the article on many graphics pulled from reputable sources, but when you add them up I do not follow the authors conclusion.

I have not studied virology and public health, and so I rely on those who have. This conclusion in the article is opposite from everything I have read from those who specialize in this area. How can that be?

So on the one hand I have articles like this one https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf
that convinced your President that the risk from COVID-19 isreal and that the situation was not under control in the US.

And this article, written by a guy with BA in Economics from Texas Christian University, whose qualifications are that he is viral marketer and a member of the California Republican Executive Committee.

The graphs are interesting, but I do not see how he has connected them to reach the conclusions that are counter to what our public health experts are telling us.

When you read the article, do the conclusions follow the data in your mind? <this is a serious question>

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early today, Ranger posted this link: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

I've just started reading through it. Again, the odd experience of reading thoughts previously articulated in here at length. As though this Forum really is a remarkable set.

Here's one chart that caught my eye:

Thanks for this post. We have to be careful to check sources, look at how data is presented carefully, and of course our government experts (everywhere) have not followed this advice and kept everything open.

I teach data visualisation in my Graphics Design course and this particular graph would be one I'd flag for a misleading representation of data. One, as previously mentioned, the initial high percentage points are inevitable as new cases will be doubling when it's 10 to 20 and 40 to 80, just being discovered as the epidemic begins in a new place. Even if percentage growth slows, the numbers are huge by the time you get to day 10-15. Being at 40k cases and adding 20% is huge. I would not be comforted at all by an increase of 8,000 cases in a day, from 40,000 to 48,000. Especially knowing those were only more severe cases actually being tested in hospitals, as is the case in most European countries.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to pbiggar)

Post #: 1627

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 9:43:04 AM

alanschu

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline

Here's an interesting chart of deaths on a logarithmic scale. Italy has slightly flattened, although it seems to be in a bit of a slower, linear state right now. Hopefully in the next few days.

France seems to be overlapping Italy thus far. I'm concerned about Spain and the UK though. Belgium is off to an aggressive start, although they started their lockdown before anyone had actually died so hopefully those measures see it flatten quickly.

US has sped up a bit in the past 3 days which may be a cause for concern.

I also found this link that explores the largely the period it takes to double the death count. Runaway speed tends to be 3 days. (also extra explantions about the exponential data bias

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Interesting thing they did is they actually *stopped* relying on the WHO numbers. Sounds like they changed the report cutoff time between situation reports 57 and 58, and while verifying the situation reports they found a bunch of errors.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1628

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 9:53:21 AM

Ian R

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

Well that graph explains why Australia has just gone into lockdown.

I guess the pollies have to work from the worst case scenario.

I don't know how it works in your country, but here they are so dumb they have no chance of understanding what that graph actually means.

_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to alanschu)

Post #: 1629

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 9:57:13 AM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

'COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin' https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

'An analysis of public genome sequence data from SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses found no evidence that the virus was made in a laboratory or otherwise engineered.'

'The novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, last year and has since caused a large scale COVID-19 epidemic and spread to more than 70 other countries is the product of natural evolution, according to findings published today in the journal Nature Medicine.'

(in reply to Ian R)

Post #: 1630

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 10:26:27 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

Just checking in, haven't read any posts since yesterday.

Early yesterday morning I stopped by the grocery store to get some things for lunch. Empty shelves here and there. The man in front of me at checkout had a buggy that was overflowing, with multiples of some items.

I said to him "Late start?" He said "Yea."

In my head I'am thinking "YEARS LATE"

Heard that CV19 cases are in towns within 50miles of here.

I've been given a "Permission to Travel" paper, in case of a mandatory stay in place.

I feel like a 6 year old that for years has been asking "Are we there yet?....Are we there yet?" and now we are pulling in to the driveway.

Back to the trenches.

_____________________________

(in reply to Zorch)

Post #: 1631

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:10:41 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Bloomberg News prepared this graph.

It wasn't offered to suggest that the pandemic is over. It was offered to show that the rate of increase is decreasing, day be day, which is true, and to show that the various countries are experiencing roughly similar "trajectories."

For what limited purpose it was used, I think that's fine.

Or am I missing something?

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: pbiggar

I have been lurking in he forum for some time, but I do feel a need to respond to this post. I read the article a couple of times to follow the data that led to conclusion that "The data is overwhelming at this point that community-based spread and airborne transmission is not a threat" and we should all keep going to work.

Included in the article on many graphics pulled from reputable sources, but when you add them up I do not follow the authors conclusion.

I have not studied virology and public health, and so I rely on those who have. This conclusion in the article is opposite from everything I have read from those who specialize in this area. How can that be?

So on the one hand I have articles like this one https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf
that convinced your President that the risk from COVID-19 isreal and that the situation was not under control in the US.

And this article, written by a guy with BA in Economics from Texas Christian University, whose qualifications are that he is viral marketer and a member of the California Republican Executive Committee.

The graphs are interesting, but I do not see how he has connected them to reach the conclusions that are counter to what our public health experts are telling us.

When you read the article, do the conclusions follow the data in your mind? <this is a serious question>

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Early today, Ranger posted this link: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

I've just started reading through it. Again, the odd experience of reading thoughts previously articulated in here at length. As though this Forum really is a remarkable set.

Here's one chart that caught my eye:

I find it stra

Thanks for this post. We have to be careful to check sources, look at how data is presented carefully, and of course our government experts (everywhere) have not followed this advice and kept everything open.

I teach data visualisation in my Graphics Design course and this particular graph would be one I'd flag for a misleading representation of data. One, as previously mentioned, the initial high percentage points are inevitable as new cases will be doubling when it's 10 to 20 and 40 to 80, just being discovered as the epidemic begins in a new place. Even if percentage growth slows, the numbers are huge by the time you get to day 10-15. Being at 40k cases and adding 20% is huge. I would not be comforted at all by an increase of 8,000 cases in a day, from 40,000 to 48,000. Especially knowing those were only more severe cases actually being tested in hospitals, as is the case in most European countries.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1632

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:12:05 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

Question: where is the daily info graph Kull and others have posted that shows daily testing trends? Thx

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 1633

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:19:19 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Daily death graph, USA.

This would be encouraging if the trend were set. But there are always daily perturbations in the rising leg of the bell-shaped-curve, as Italy showed this week.

The graph of the number of daily cases in the US is similar.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1634

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:20:24 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

The Financial Times is doing a good trending graph that has three important data points represented in relation to all countries that have had at least 100 cases of the virus.

The case trends are here shown against the days since 100 cases and the total number of cases. Keeps some in perspective and shows the relative position of each country as their version of this pandemic continues.

It's easy to see what you want to discover and doesn't need any interpretation, really.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/22/2020 12:29:33 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 1635

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:27:20 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

I also found these on testing which show the US racing up the chart to the top five, which is fantastic. Glad it's coming through more now.

This site is great. Lots more there.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/22/2020 12:33:46 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1636

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:27:42 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Wait a minute, Erik. The graph two posts above does the same thing that the one you found fault does - shows trends using numbers.

This one suffers from at least one flaw, if read out of context or isolated. It uses raw numbers instead of cases per capita. Raw numbers don't mean much (and are further subject to serious uncertainty due to disparities in testing percentages).

Why is it reliable and the other not???

P.S. The graph is fine but users need to understand its limitations, context and biases, just as with the other one.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/22/2020 12:34:47 PM >

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1637

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:30:21 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Number of serious cases reported had been oddly low and consistent day after day in the US. Today it jumped to 700+. Probably something wonky in the reporting.

Germany continues with comparatively good numbers.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1638

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:33:49 PM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Number of serious cases reported had been oddly low and consistent day after day in the US. Today it jumped to 700+. Probably something wonky in the reporting.

Germany continues with comparatively good numbers.

Testing in the US ramping up. Likely a lot of serious cases where COVID was suspected but not confirmed. I think that number is going to rise a fair bit for the foreseeable.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1639

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:37:02 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

It can't be that. That number almost certainly applies to just hospitalized cases. It was very weirdly low and stable for a week or so. Then a sudden jump today. Rational trends can't explain it. It's human error or neglect almost certainly, either in how the USA compiled or reported or by the table creator in updating.

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 1640

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:37:31 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wait a minute, Erik. This graph does the same thing that the other one does - shows trends using numbers.

And this one suffers from a similar flaw, if read out of context or isolated. It uses raw numbers instead of cases per capita.

And it's flawed because it doesn't take into account increases in testing, as in the USA.

???

P.S. The graph is fine for what it's used for.

I just posted two graphs. Not sure which one you mean. I think you might mean the testing graph?

I originally posted the wrong pic of the testing graph, and now have the one up I intended. It is interactive on the site, but I couldn't embed that so just have the pictures.

Again, what I like is that it makes it very easy to see how countries relate to each other and see who might be in trouble more, as they fall well to the lower right, where a lot of cases without a lot of testing means probably a lot more out there.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1641

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:39:53 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

I was referring to your post 1635. That graph is no more useful than the one you criticized and possibly less so, as it seems to have several serious flaws.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/22/2020 12:40:14 PM >

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1642

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 12:47:07 PM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

I understand that the US VA hospital system is asking everyone questions, taking temperatures, and no allowing unnecessary people into their hospitals. No children under the age of 16 either. This could also be a partial source of the increase in cases and tests performed.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1643

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:00:06 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

London update.

It's Mother's Day in the UK. That means a flood of people into the sunny parks for both leisure with the family and exercise. We went out I the morning to hopefully find fewer people, but still cycled a bit farther than intended until we managed to get into a quiet woods. We distanced well. A lot though were out breathing heavily next to their jogging teams, and sitting around having picnics. I can't really fault them, but since the UK has ramped up testing case numbers have shot up, with a doubling in three days.

If that trend continues, we will be having a lot of trouble in a week. At 5k+ now, that means 15k+ in three days and about 45k+ by next Sunday. That is not good. I know it's hard for people to look ahead, but I'm worried now when I hear that there was some backlash to closing pubs and then seeing the numbers out in close proximity.

We are hoping to still get our daughter out, like everyone else, but to be very careful, get deeper into nature, and avoid any shops or groups and keep our 2-3 meter distance from everyone. We've had to wait numerous times for people to pass before moving in order to do this, but that's okay.

It's been lovely to spend so much time together, and I've been able to help my wife a lot with her new marketing strategy for the kids books she both writes and publishes. It all has to go online obviously, but some have been getting great reviews and we hope the public need some new books to share with their kids during the time inside.

There are warnings, as from the Mayor, Sadiq Kahn this morning, that things will be restricted more soon.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 1644

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:08:13 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I was referring to your post 1635. That graph is no more useful than the one you criticized and possibly less so, as it seems to have several serious flaws.

Ahh. Well, the good thing, as I mentioned, is that the FT graph correlates percentage increases while also showing actual number of case by country and tracking where they are in relation to a baseline 33% number. It tracks everyone from the same point, from 100 cases, which makes trajectories easy to correlate, and also shows more countries, which is very useful.

I find the upward curve to be more meaningful next to the 33% line of case increases, since this problem is still growing across the world, than the downward trend in the graph from Bloomberg, which is misleading visually. Without seeing number of total cases the percentage increase is less useful. Cases cold still be growing, slowly, or they could be holding steady with some recoveries (no longer listed as cases) and some new cases, keeping the total number high.

Each can be used for something, but to show downward trends at this point is misleading anyone who isn't aware of these factors and may not be aware of total numbers.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1645

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:09:16 PM

geofflambert

Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/childrens-covid-19-risks-unique-chinese-studies-find

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/us-studies-offer-clues-covid-19-swift-spread-severity

I'm curious about death-by-pneumonia for this. In the case of the flu, pneumonia is frequently caused by secondary infections, but nobody seems to have good numbers on how often that's the case. I'm wondering if Covid 19 is more likely to cause pneumonia directly and thus be the direct cause of death. Sure would like to know average length of time between infection and death, I'm suspecting it's shorter with this.

Copper is proving (as with other pathogens) to be a lethal surface to the virus. Wish all hospitals could switch from plastic, aluminum and stainless steel surfaces to copper, brass and bronze. In terms of doorknobs and push plates this would be a good thing everywhere and I hope building codes start reflecting that.

< Message edited by geofflambert -- 3/22/2020 1:11:11 PM >

_____________________________

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 1646

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:16:01 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Showing a downward trend in one set of data is misleading even though its accurate, but showing an upward trend that is clearly misleading** isn't misleading?

These are Orwellian times.

** If read in isolation.

(in reply to geofflambert)

Post #: 1647

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:16:51 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Shame on Bloomberg for creating such a misleading graph!

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1648

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:21:37 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Showing a downward trend in one set of data is misleading even though its accurate, but showing an upward trend that is clearly misleading** isn't misleading?

These are Orwellian times.

** If read in isolation.

That upward trend is not misleading. If it is please show me how?

Cases are increasing, right?

So isolating percentage decreases is trying to find something positive in something that is still quite negative.

BBfanboy also commented on this one originally ...

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I don't accept the premise of the graph because the early stages were the "discovery" phase when testing started and numbers were spiking because we finally knew what (who) to count. Once you know someone has it you don't count them in the subsequent weeks.

So the volume of testing must be factored in to the number of cases found i.e. the positive per thousand tests statistic we saw in an earlier chart. A plot of that stat over time would be instructive, with annotation of measures put in place on the time scale part of the chart.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/22/2020 1:31:17 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 1649

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 1:27:18 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

It suffers from two serious flaws: (1) using total cases instead of per capita (so that larger countries are inherently overrepresented), and (2) it fails to give the context that some countries (USA) have accelerated testing tremendously, leading to a big rise in cases (meaning the big rise was in test results, not in cases). So the graph is highly distorted.

Both graphs - the one you relied on and the one you criticized - are misleading when taken out of the context they were posted for. Both are fine for the purposes given, but the former suffers from less distortion/reporting bias than the latter.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 1650