Matrix Games Forums

Forums  Register  Login  Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ 

My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums  Log Out

RE: OT: Corona virus

 
View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  55 56 [57] 58 59   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 11:07:23 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The same article mentioned robotic testing, but said that was a ways off. I agree, it is shocking, and I can't see how it goes up that much in such a short period. Unless they're going door to door.


Spain is being.....less than forthright about testing. From Warspite's link in Post 1677 above, we learn that Germany credits aggressive testing (to include contact tracing) for their low mortality rates. So who are they testing, and what is the capacity?

quote:

"Crucially, Germany started testing people even with milder symptoms relatively early on, meaning the total number of confirmed cases may give a more accurate picture of the virus’s spread than in other states.

According to Germany’s National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians, the country has capacity for about 12,000 Covid-19 tests per day".


Meanwhile what's been going on in Spain? Take a look at the chart below (#1 on the attachment) and you'll see the case growth in Spain. The initial enforced distancing measures didn't start until March 10th (just two days after 375,000 people gathered in Madrid for the International Women’s Day protest), and the government didn't declare the national state of emergency until March 14th. There was also an article just two days ago (can't find the link), in which the emergency council noted that only serious cases were being tested. In other words, there wasn't then and there isn't now the same type of contact tracing we saw in South Korea or what's being reported from Germany.

If you look at the "Ref" column on the Testing Wiki page, it contains links to the documents from which they obtained the testing numbers. In this case (see #2 on the attachment) "70" is the newspaper article containing the 355K total tests figure. There are some interesting quotes:

quote:

"At a press conference after the daily meeting of the coronavirus management committee, Sierra has reported a notable increase in recent days with regard to COVID-19 diagnoses after the Minister of Health, Salvador Illa, said days ago, that 30,000 had been made, a figure that the Government has clarified that at the time was "partial" and did not include all the data that was available so far. Since the state of alarm came into effect, cooperation between communities has improved and the 355,000 tests correspond to data offered by all hospitals. They are being carried out across the country at a daily rate of between 15,000 and 20,000 tests."


So 30,000 tests just "days ago" (as in THREE days ago - I have the screenshot and posted it here earlier) was only "partial", but has now blossomed into 355,000 because that's data from "all hospitals". And the national capacity is "a daily rate of between 15,000 and 20,000 tests". In other words, Spain has more testing capacity than Germany. OK then.

So let's see, at 20K/day (for the sake of argument we'll use the fantasy number) that would be 160,000 tests since the SOE was declared on March 14th. If we go back to the 10th, it would be 240,000. If we want 355K, that means max testing capacity running since....March 4th.

In other words, the same government that allowed a massive gathering in the capital on March 8th was also making sure that Spain was running at full Covid-19 testing capacity 4 days earlier and every day since. Sure. Totally believable.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1681
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/22/2020 11:24:45 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Last I knew, India wasn't testing, and that's why their numbers are so low. I believe a lot of people are dying without the actual cause being known. In some ways she's really not in this century yet. I don't want to start anything and I don't know enough to do that but Muslims and lower caste people are not always treated like real people who matter.


A country with the sort of healthcare system which can't prevent 120,000 new cases of leprosy every year is not well positioned for this kind of virus.

Not that they've done well against the flu, either. Guess which country was hardest hit by the Spanish Influenza:

quote:

And, in 1918, all it took was a few months. An estimated 10-20 million Indians died (a fifth of the global death toll, making India the worst-hit country). The Ghats along the River Ganga ran out of wood as the bodies piled up, according to a letter written by renowned Hindi poet Nirala, which is available in his collected works. Prominent citizens from Mahatma Gandhi to writer Munshi Premchand are suspected to have fallen sick before recovering.

And, the disease left a devastating impact on the economy.

In the last 120 years of recorded economic history in India, 1918 was the worst (see Chart 1). Recorded growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) was the lowest (-10.5%) while inflation was near all-time highs, a cocktail much worse than any other tragedy that has hit India—including the world wars or the Bengal famine.


_____________________________


(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1682
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:05:14 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts



I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.

_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1683
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:20:07 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Last I knew, India wasn't testing, and that's why their numbers are so low. I believe a lot of people are dying without the actual cause being known. In some ways she's really not in this century yet. I don't want to start anything and I don't know enough to do that but Muslims and lower caste people are not always treated like real people who matter.


A country with the sort of healthcare system which can't prevent 120,000 new cases of leprosy every year is not well positioned for this kind of virus.



Kull, what figures do you have for Bangladesh?

From what I have seen it looks like the Deshis have herd immunity. There are only 20 cases.

Nonetheless WHO wants them to lock down, and they have shut Dhaka's biggest brothel.

WHO wants Bangladesh shutdown

Coronavirus: Bangladesh shuts largest brothel over Covid-19 fears


EDit: Had to quote this part:

quote:

Ashiqur [local Police chief] said the police has requested that the administration allocate about 32 metric tonnes of rice to support the sex workers during the hiatus.

Prostitution is illegal in mainly Muslim Bangladesh, but Ashiqur said they do not interfere in the trade, which has operated in the country for centuries.


< Message edited by Ian R -- 3/23/2020 2:12:07 AM >


_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1684
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 1:06:35 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
I still have not seen anything that requires the hype. Just me just seems people have lost their minds. I went to the store all the beans were there but all garbage food was gone, they left tuna and salmon but got all the raviolis. Weird. You can live off Legumes for a long time and a bit of fish. But they all bought the garbage. There was only some Turkey Balonga left never had any but seemed ok so I bought a pack along with 7 cans of pintos and dozen packs of tuna.

This thing I think reflects the society of instant hysteria, like twitter post and everyone bandwagons. It is the SARS MERS over again and will pass soon.

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1685
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 1:09:03 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
Or is that Bologna.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1686
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 1:56:54 AM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Kull, what figures do you have for Bangladesh?


For leprosy, it's "only" 5000/yr. Full disclosure - as a kid (1966-67) I lived in Bangla Desh (then known as East Pakistan), and you routinely encountered people with leprosy on the streets. There was even one guy who used to hang out near the only English-language movie theatre, so he could pop out of an alley and scare the bejezuss out of western kids. We called him "faceless" - with good reason! In retrospect I can hardly blame him. How many opportunities are there for a guy like that to have fun?

quote:

From what I have seen it looks like the Deshis have heard immunity. There are only 20 cases.


I looked around for info on testing (Bangla Desh isn't listed on the wiki), and couldn't find any numbers. However there was an interesting article talking about the impossibility of "social distancing" strategies. Keep in mind that we're talking about a population of 170M in a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):

quote:

For a city as dense as Dhaka (18M), maintaining social distance - as suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO) to stop the coronavirus spread - seems like a chimera.

Even staying at home is barely proven to be efficacious in Dhaka - a city with no less than 23,334 people living per square kilometre.

Nadia Tabassum Khan has been working from home for the past one week as her office, a multinational market research firm, allowed their employees to avail the facility.

"Our contractual housemaid however, is making a daily visit to our house from outside," 36-year-old Khan told Al Jazeera.

Khan's housemaid Sulema Begum, a 34-year-old with beetle leaf stained teeth, barely has any idea about the magnitude of coronavirus outbreak. She hardly knows about the pandemic that has infected more than 200,000 people worldwide and killed nearly 10,000 people.

In her slum at Beribandh in the south of Dhaka, where at least 20,000 people live in extremely close quarters, with most residents little aware of the threat due to the disease.

"We have seen on the TV that people are washing hands and advise everyone to do the same. A bottle of hand wash costs more than 120 takas (about $1.4). It is hard for me to afford it," said a nonchalant Begum.

"Besides, in the slum, there is one toilet for every 10 families. We don't even have a regular water supply in the toilet," Begum added.


I can visualize every bit of that. I remember our family visiting a sick maid (she had smallpox...let that sink in) and the slum was...appalling. I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/23/2020 1:58:02 AM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1687
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 2:14:23 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts



I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.


My understanding is that most of the German Corona virus cases come from the young people who went south into the mountains on winter holiday. Since they should be younger and with fewer health problems, you should expect a lower death toll. Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1688
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 2:19:40 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.


If it does - they are in close proximity to China, have done very little so far, yet seem untroubled.


_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1689
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 2:29:27 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):



Speaking of Tasmania, they pulled up the draw bridge a few days ago; us foreigners from the mainland are not allowed to enter the state.

It's as if the politicians here are having a contest to see who can impose the most draconian lockdown rules. NSW ordered all licensed premises to close indefinitely at midday today (90 minutes ago). Off licenses are, however, still operating so all is not lost.




_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1690
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 2:43:34 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.


They were ordered to hug Chinese? What about gorns?

_____________________________



(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1691
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 2:49:10 AM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

I can't imagine things are much better. If/when the virus starts working through that population? Ugh.


If it does - they are in close proximity to China, have done very little so far, yet seem untroubled.



Thinking about this further, deeply poor 3rd world nations may have something going for them. The average life expectancy in Bangla Desh is 72 (Italy is 82) and the median age is 27 (Italy is 45). And who does this virus target? The old and those with "underlying conditions".

Think about a deeply impoverished country with marginal (if that) healthcare. How many people survive the underlying conditions, much less live long lives with them? In some ways, those countries who are least prepared to handle this, have populations whose age dynamic makes them better equipped to survive.

Edit: In fact, if you want an interesting exercise, correlate the Median Age by country in this table with those which are most (and least) affected. Interesting correlation here.

Edit 2: The youngest country in the world is Niger (15.4 y/o). Number of cases? 2

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/23/2020 2:59:07 AM >


_____________________________


(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 1692
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 3:13:06 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.


They were ordered to hug Chinese? What about gorns?


I think that they were instructed to use them to substitute for chickens.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to geofflambert)
Post #: 1693
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 3:14:49 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
Lizard Overlords will fall with this Chinese Virus!

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1694
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 3:55:45 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
Korean researchers found substance inhibiting COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7744


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1695
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 3:56:38 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

A group of Korean researchers reported Wednesday that medical workers can find and use an antibody to treat the new coronavirus, from the antibodies of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.


Korean researchers find antibody to neutralize COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7617

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1696
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 4:48:19 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Keep in mind that we're talking about a population of 170M in a country the size of Iowa (for you Aussies, that's twice the size of Tasmania):



Along with elephants, rhinos, tigers, crocodiles and gorns (I think). Iowa does get floods now and then but ...




Attachment (1)

_____________________________



(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1697
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 4:56:50 AM   
alanschu

 

Posts: 405
Joined: 12/21/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Thinking about this further, deeply poor 3rd world nations may have something going for them. The average life expectancy in Bangla Desh is 72 (Italy is 82) and the median age is 27 (Italy is 45). And who does this virus target? The old and those with "underlying conditions".

Think about a deeply impoverished country with marginal (if that) healthcare. How many people survive the underlying conditions, much less live long lives with them? In some ways, those countries who are least prepared to handle this, have populations whose age dynamic makes them better equipped to survive.

Edit: In fact, if you want an interesting exercise, correlate the Median Age by country in this table with those which are most (and least) affected. Interesting correlation here.

Edit 2: The youngest country in the world is Niger (15.4 y/o). Number of cases? 2


I haven't done anything more than the most superficial of investigation, but I had noticed that it seemed like wealthier countries were more impacted.

Off the cuff I assumed it was probably due to greater economic activity (i.e. importing and moving goods around, particularly from China) as well as greater propensity to travel among the population.

Median age is an interesting metric. I also am completely ignorant to say, how much traffic happens along the South Asian states and China and so forth.


EDIT: Obviously there's some outliers which is why I didn't overly investigate it (I'm probably wrong) such as Japan and South Korea.

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/23/2020 4:57:58 AM >

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1698
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 6:19:07 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts



I don't find that puzzling. Ze Germans are very precise engineers, and may simply be doing better at this point.


My understanding is that most of the German Corona virus cases come from the young people who went south into the mountains on winter holiday. Since they should be younger and with fewer health problems, you should expect a lower death toll. Also, I don't believe that they were into hugging the Chinese who carried the virus, unlike what the Italian government asked their people to do - that is, to hug the Chinese. That hugging was probably done when China stated that the disease was not transmittable from person to person.
warspite1

But this is supposedly a very easily transmitted disease. Those 'young' people coming back from Italy presumably mixed with others before they knew, they had elderly relatives etc.


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1699
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 7:40:11 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The situation in Germany (certainly in comparison to Italy) is really strange. Here is an interesting article on this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

It's those strong Nordic/barbarian genes!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 1700
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 9:49:29 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Korean researchers found substance inhibiting COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=7744



This is very interesting. It looks like it's primarily the bacteria in these specific berries, L. gasseri, that help inhibit the virus. There are other properties too from the berry itself.

Not living in the far North, it seems difficult to get the fresh berries, but I did find a source of frozen ones here in the UK. Has other good immune help so ordered some.

Here is an article about these bacteria and the other foods they inhabit, which are far more common, and already in my fridge! (bold)

You can also increase your Lactobacillus intake by consuming fermented foods, such as yogurt, kefir, miso, kimchi, tempeh, miso, pickles, and sauerkraut.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/the-benefits-of-lactobacillus-gasseri-88697

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/23/2020 9:54:13 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 1701
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 10:36:21 AM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Regarding different infection rates in Germany and Italy.

I read an interesting article (in Italian) whcih I summarize.

As we know, most (up to 80%) of infections are via family members. In Germany, it is said, young people go out of their parents' house relatively young (IIRC the average is 23 years old), while in Italy young people tend to stay home with their parents or other older relatives much longer. That's mainly due to the combination of very low salaries for young people and inaffordable houses.

This situation might have helped spreading the virus so much in Italy and can be an explaination also for the Spanish situation, which doesn't look great. Family dynamics in Spain are fairly similar to the Italian ones for various reasons.

This, basically, implies that elders are more exposed in Italy. And therefore the death rate is so much higher in Italy than in other countries.

I strongly doubt that the factors above are the definitive explanation regarding the difference between German infections and Italian ones, but I am quite open to the idea that they have a relevant role.



Also, it's very likely (not to say certain...) that in Italy we are overestimating the number of deaths due to coronavirus. In many countries, they do count people who actually die of coronavirus, rather than WITH coronavirus. It's a light but substantial difference.

I was having a conversation regarding different practices in Ukraine and Czech Republic and it was quite funny to see how different procedures can really change numbers.
For example, in Urkaine deaths due to lung cancer are 2.49%, which is quiet low (compared for example with 6.5% of Norway or 7.5% of Luxemburg, just to make two random examples). Also, the incidence of smokers is outrageously high in Ukraine.
Still, if you die because your body is super f@cked up by lung cancer and you have, to make an example, an heart attack, your death cause is listed in the heart attack statistics.

To put it more bluntly, you can have a much much lower death ratio depending on how you calculate cov-19 deaths. In Italy, again IIRC, there have been only 12 certain deaths due to coronavirus. That changes the perspective radically.

I suspect Germany is somehow counting deaths in a different way. I don't know which country is correct in its counting, whether Italy or Germany, but I believe that we can have true comparisons only when the overall mortality rates for the year will be available.


Italian healthcare system is notoriously good and even if we assume it's worse than the German one, the difference in mortality cannot be explained by that.




Regarding third world countries (basically, Africa since I don't have proper first-hand information and experiences on other ones). I believe that they do get Cov-19 but the young population is saving them from more severe effects. Basically, their backwardiness is helping them. It should also be noted that: A) there are very very few facilities to do proper testing; B) these countries are generally less globally connected; C) people with severe diseases have little to none support and they are likely to die (therefore, there isn't a very high percentage of the population living with several pathologies)

I suppose, on the other side, that malnutrition and very poor hygienic conditions can have a tremendous effect in the eventuality of a massive outbreak there.

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1702
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 11:51:41 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline
Meanwhile in the land of Oz, our case number has gone exponential*. [*Not really, I am being cynical.]

It however has done this from a low base.

quote:

As at 3pm on 23 March 2020, there have been 1,709 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 313 new cases since 3pm yesterday.


The fact that most of these cases have egressed from a series of docking cruise ships, seems not to suit the scaremongers and dickheads in the media.


_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 1703
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:03:44 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Regarding different infection rates in Germany and Italy.

I read an interesting article (in Italian) whcih I summarize.

As we know, most (up to 80%) of infections are via family members. In Germany, it is said, young people go out of their parents' house relatively young (IIRC the average is 23 years old), while in Italy young people tend to stay home with their parents or other older relatives much longer. That's mainly due to the combination of very low salaries for young people and inaffordable houses.



I had thought about this, and also read about it earlier, that even if they don't live together, they live nearby, so they see each other often. This is not true in the US in big cities nearly as much, and less true in some other Northern European countries. The region of the first outbreaks in Italy was also smaller, rural towns, not big cities, where traditional lifestyles and big family groups might be more common.

In London the population is younger, but socialise a lot and are very diverse nationally. There are groups with the same kinds of traditional living arrangements of Italian families, and also large communal houses/flat for both multinational groups and the young. So spread might happen very quickly through those groups.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ITAKLinus)
Post #: 1704
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:07:12 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
The FT again shows really interesting stats on the Chinese economy still not being up to 2019 levels, in spite of the message coming out that all is back to normal.






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1705
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:33:16 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
We might have finally turned the corner in Italy. I've expanded the table to show the past 6 days, and if you look at the Total Case Increase percentages on the attachment, you'll see that the numbers rose for three days (red), held more or less steady for two more (yellow) and dropped a LOT yesterday (green). Part of the decrease is due to a revised case count out of Marche (see the two salmon-colored cells) which dropped the total number of cases between the 21st and 22nd, but even if that number had risen by 600 (the otherwise expected increase), we'd still be looking at a 4-point drop in the day-over-day percentage increase.

Take that one step further and we see the decrease is happening both North AND South. The Mortality numbers are still pretty ugly, but that's a trailing indicator.

The only caveat would be if hospitals are so overwhelmed that testing protocols are being abandoned, but if so, you would only expect to see it in a place like Lombardy - not everywhere. So this seems solid. But still, it's just one day.

Pertinent links:

1) Daily Italian Stats by province here

2) Original post with regional map of Italy here

3) The last post on this topic here




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1706
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:40:04 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
Yet another record-breaking day two days ago in Italy: 793 dead in a day. Yesterday the number went down to 651. Of course it is too early to put these number in context.

I keep posting these hoping that they could help people in other countries to see how the virus is impacting our lives - and hopefully get at least an advanced warning.

Milan deployed the Army in the streets and the checks are even more frequent. I was stopped for the first time - twice - during a morning trip to the Supermarket.

In the Italian region of Marche the superintendent mobilised the Coastguard to guarantee the lockdown even if you live near the seaside, and implemented some more stringent quarantine measures. He then took his bicycle to return home - and was promptly stopped by the Police. I guess that his measures work (he was let go after a check).

Other regions are considering to deploy the Coastguard, but nothing official as of now. Meanwhile, in Puglia they started using drones to check for crowds.

You cannot anymore run around in public spaces (including parks and even if alone). It is allowed to run or walk around your house or in your inner park, if you have one - a good thing for elderly people who need their daily walk.

If you own a second house, maybe at the seaside, you cannot move from the one you are currently living in to the other. About 10,000 people were sent back in the Emilia Romagna region alone.

The number of people denounced for violating the quarantine climbed to 82,041 - 1,943 of these for lying in their auto-certification (a criminal offence).

The President of the Industrialists' Guild (Confindustria), Enrico Boccia, said that this is a "war economy" and that we are losing 100 billion Euro every month.

Here in Lombardy sick people die alone. Often their families/loved ones are quarantined. In other cases they simply cannot enter the maximum biosafety area where the infected are held. You die, you are put in a coffin and stacked with other coffins, a priest says some words and then the Army trucks bring you to the crematorium.

But there are also heartwarming news. Overwhelmed, the Civil Protection (the Italian FEMA) put out an "open call" for 300 new medical personnel. In one day over 7,000 people with various degrees of medical knowledge (from ex-nurses to retired doctors) answered the call (including an ex-doctor who is now a priest). This is amazing, but remember that these volunteers now need to be equipped (amid the shortages) and trained. Is was still an amazing thing.

After the doctors sent by China, yesterday 52 between doctors and nurses arrived in Italy from Cuba. Germany, in turn, is ready to take in a surplus of sick from Lombardy - either suffering by Coronavirus or other aliments.

Another bit of good news: if you (auto-certify) that you are not sick, you can call a dentist. They are available only for urgent needs (bad teeth and abscesses) but it is better than nothing (I still shudder at the thought).

Both the small town of Bugliano (near Bergamo) and... er... BELGIUM banned "orgies, gangbangs and all non-essential sexual activities with 3 people even in indoor areas." Please, define "essential" in the current context...

National Weekly Lottery has been suspended.

Mayors from all parts of Italy are starting to show signs of a mayor nervous breakdown.

Meanwhile, a new phenomenon is arising: Social Justice Warriors. They are self-nominated "Judge Dredd"s who take on their shoulders the duty of maintaining the quarantine. It could be a good thing. Sadly, the stupidity of these people shows in various forms.

Most of them take pictures of people in the streets and post these on social media - with names and other personal info if they know them. This is, of course, very illegal and you can be sued for doing it - not to mention the various reasons as why people can be legally outside. In a case, the very fury of hell was rained on Twitter against a picture of two people holding hands. It turned out that one of them was a disabled person.

More disquieting are the signs put outside apartment blocks warning "anyone not belonging to the block" that they will be denounced and/or suffer dire consequences. A curios thing that these signs have in common is the disregard for basic grammar rules.

Yesterday evening I was returning from my daughter's flat when a car passed me. There was a lone woman at the wheel, and she stopped at a streetlight (an eerie action: it was the only car around). All of sudden the unusually quiet streets of Milan were lacerated by the screeching of another woman! "STAY INSIDE YOU KILLER!! YOU ARE KILLING PEOPLE BY GOING AROUND LIKE THAT!!" It was so out of the blue that I almost jumped out of my skin. The woman in the car pulled down the window and counter-screeched "I'M A NURSE, YOU MORON!! MOVE YOUR ASS AND GO HELP SOMEONE!! HOPE THAT YOU WILL NOT FIND YOURSELF UNDER MY CARE!!"

This actually went on for half a minute, then the woman in the car just roared away, like a jet launched by a carrier's catapult. I found myself ready to - I'm not making this up - impersonate a plainclothes officer had the woman at the window started screaming at me. But she just slammed the window shut.

I wonder what the consequences will be should these accidents start to happen in a country with laxer gun laws than Italy.

I'm suffering from... too much stress, worries and isolation, I guess. It happens in the morning: while I'm in that span of time between sleep and wakefulness I feel an inexplicable sense of anguish. When I get up it goes away. I now sleep more and, when needed, I go to the Supermarket at 8:30 AM. It is the opportunity to, at least, see some people.

I have a friend from way back who is now a bigwig doctor specialised in sleep disorders. I called him and he is, of course, overwhelmed on another front: people who simply cannot sleep anymore. The risk for some of them is to abuse their sleeping aids (pills, drops...) and become addicted. We chatted briefly and he made two interesting points:

The first is not as obvious as it would seem. True, the virus, plus social isolation, plus confinement (and, maybe, loved ones being sick) equals inescapable anxiety. But there is another factor: during the quarantine we think too much. I agreed: I think about staying safe. I think about my younger daughter who lives in London, now jobless, sharing a flat with a friend (a father worried because his daughter hasn't a boyfriend - what is the World coming to?) And I wonder about my family back in Calabria and my business. And I can't do anything about these worries - being confined for most of the day in an hotel room.

My "Doctor Sleep" friend a few years ago authored a paper about how the new forms of digital interaction (smartphones "in primis") damage our sleep habits. Today he told me "Buy a Playstation". I guess that Steam will do.

The second point that he made blindsided me. If, for any reason, you need to take a lot of medications, it is possible that your doctor will prescribe their doses according to your daily routine. But these days daily routines are going down the drain. He is revising all of his patients medical planning, while co-ordinating with some other doctors. This is another way for this emergency to damage us in ways not easy to anticipate.

Tonight I dreamt I was trying to learn Advanced Squad Leader. Now even dreams are anguishing...

We all live one day at the time. Planning ahead is impossible: the situation changes hourly. As usual, listen to official sources, use your head and stay safe.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 1707
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:55:55 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Yet another record-breaking day two days ago in Italy: 793 dead in a day. Yesterday the number went down to 651. Of course it is too early to put these number in context.


Thanks man. It's easy enough for somebody like me to post stats, but the visceral effect of your posts is....very affecting. Thanks again for doing this.

_____________________________


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1708
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 12:59:47 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Both the small town of Bugliano (near Bergamo) and... er... BELGIUM banned "orgies, gangbangs and all non-essential sexual activities with 3 people even in indoor areas." Please, define "essential" in the current context...


OMG

If you are worried that your sexual activities might be entering the "non-essential" category, just post this picture in your bedroom:





Attachment (1)

_____________________________


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1709
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/23/2020 1:05:32 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline
At which point will people realize that the "cure" is worse than the virus itself?


_____________________________


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 1710
Page:   <<   < prev  55 56 [57] 58 59   next >   >>
All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition >> RE: OT: Corona virus Page: <<   < prev  55 56 [57] 58 59   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts


Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.4.5 ANSI

1.078