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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:08:06 PM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.



I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.



Dude. Your chart is of area (land mass) of countries ranked. Russia is really big. But I was referring to population sizes, not land mass.

And I was questioning whether we could trust worldometer based on my observation about surface area putting the US second in size when I was sure Canada was bigger in surface area. So I searched that fact to see if I was mistaken and the Wiki site came up first. I was about to search Wiki on populations.

Edit: From Wikipedia - The population numbers for Russia are slightly higher (146,745,098) than Worldometer and the numbers for the US slightly lower (329 million), but close enough to say Worldometer is not making it up. I must have been remembering the post-Soviet Union bloc called Confederation of Independent States.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/24/2020 7:13:23 PM >


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Post #: 1891
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:09:44 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...

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Post #: 1892
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:11:00 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
"Worldometer shows estimated current numbers based on statistics and projections from the most reputable official organizations.

Our sources include the United Nations Population Division, World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank.

We analyze the available data, perform statistical analysis, and build our algorithm which feeds the real time estimate.

Our counters have been licensed for the United Nations Conference Rio+20, BBC News, U2 concert, World Expo, and prestigious museums and events worldwide."

"We try to be as accurate as possible. For each set of statistics we perform extensive research and data mining in order to bring the most authoritative, comprehensive, and timely information to be displayed on the live counters.

As with any statistic, the numbers are not expected to be exact to the single digit, but to provide a fairly accurate and informative description of a phenomenon. This inherited limitation must be taken into account for the correct interpretation of the information.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books, in more than 6,000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world."


< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/24/2020 7:14:29 PM >


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Post #: 1893
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:11:32 PM   
MakeeLearn


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"Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world.

Worldometer is owned by Dadax, an independent company. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation."

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Post #: 1894
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:12:56 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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"Dadax is a software solution company focusing on web technologies and applications. We are at the forefront of innovation to address the entire breadth of customers’ opportunities in the evolving world of cloud, digital and intelligence.

As Dadax we have deep domain expertise with unmatched experience in different industries, we know how to choose right technologies and tools to solve problems and make better systems.

As Dadax we create smart software, we built turnkey systems and we share great products, to best optimize the industries we serve. We are committed to helping every customer become a best-run business.

Together with partners all over the world, we are providing products, solutions and services for Intelligent Content Authoring & Publishing, IoT Application, Machine Vision Application, and Robotic Process Automation Application etc.

Dadax, [‘dɑ:dɑ:ks], was founded in 2016, it’s located in Lin’gang, the most southeastern of Shanghai."


< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/24/2020 7:13:11 PM >


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Post #: 1895
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:16:43 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
And I was questioning whether we could trust worldometer based on my observation about surface area putting the US second in size when I was sure Canada was bigger in surface area. So I searched that fact to see if I was mistaken and the Wiki site came up first. I was about to search Wiki on populations.


"Surface area" = land mass plus coastal and territorial waterways OR

"Surface area" = land mass only?

Canada is larger by overall territorial claims than the United States. But if you take out Hudson Bay (it's mostly water ) and other lakes and coastal waterways from 'land mass' and separate out land mass alone, Canada is slightly smaller the United States. Seems pretty straightforward.

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Post #: 1896
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:17:34 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...

Never underestimate the mendacity of bureaucrats, and their inability to learn.

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Post #: 1897
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:18:37 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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Donald Trump Signs Executive Order to Prevent Hoarding, Price Gouging During Coronavirus Crisis
23 Mar 2020

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/23/donald-trump-signs-executive-order-to-prevent-hoarding-price-gouging-during-coronavirus-crisis/

"President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Monday to prevent hoarding and price gouging during the coronavirus crisis.

“This sends a strong message – we will not let those hoarding vital supplies and price gougers to harm the health of America in this hour of need,” White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement.

The details of the executive order were not immediately made available to reporters, other than a photo of President Trump signing the order in the Oval Office with Attorney General Bill Barr at his side."

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Post #: 1898
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:20:36 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
And I was questioning whether we could trust worldometer based on my observation about surface area putting the US second in size when I was sure Canada was bigger in surface area. So I searched that fact to see if I was mistaken and the Wiki site came up first. I was about to search Wiki on populations.


"Surface area" = land mass plus coastal and territorial waterways OR

"Surface area" = land mass only?

Canada is larger by overall territorial claims than the United States. But if you take out Hudson Bay (it's mostly water ) and other lakes and coastal waterways from 'land mass' and separate out land mass alone, Canada is slightly smaller the United States. Seems pretty straightforward.

Either way, it's larger than a breadbox and smaller than the egos of forum members.

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Post #: 1899
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:25:11 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...

Never underestimate the mendacity of bureaucrats, and their inability to learn.


Oh, I don't blame the managed health groups for the inescapable trends towards efficiency over time. That's their mandate. If they don't do it, they go bankrupt. Period. Lots of them did in the managed care / hospital group bloodletting of the 80s and 90s. It's just that managed health groups' mandates-entirely legitimate-are not the same as a viable public health service run by the Federal or State government for the general public good.

If the Feds or individual states want to spend lots of money and manhours on keeping a viable public health surge capacity going that's up to them. It hasn't really been done in decades. Or they can buy/rent/force majeure parking garages, dilapidated malls and motels and the like when it's too late.

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Post #: 1900
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:48:35 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"Worldometer shows estimated current numbers based on statistics and projections from the most reputable official organizations.

Our sources include the United Nations Population Division, World Health Organization (WHO), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank.

We analyze the available data, perform statistical analysis, and build our algorithm which feeds the real time estimate.

Our counters have been licensed for the United Nations Conference Rio+20, BBC News, U2 concert, World Expo, and prestigious museums and events worldwide."

"We try to be as accurate as possible. For each set of statistics we perform extensive research and data mining in order to bring the most authoritative, comprehensive, and timely information to be displayed on the live counters.

As with any statistic, the numbers are not expected to be exact to the single digit, but to provide a fairly accurate and informative description of a phenomenon. This inherited limitation must be taken into account for the correct interpretation of the information.

Worldometer is cited as a source in over 10,000 published books, in more than 6,000 professional journal articles, and in over 1000 Wikipedia pages.

Worldometer was voted as one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA), the oldest and largest library association in the world."


This often accounts for differences between sources on the Internet.

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Post #: 1901
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:50:30 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...

Never underestimate the mendacity of bureaucrats, and their inability to learn.


Oh, I don't blame the managed health groups for the inescapable trends towards efficiency over time. That's their mandate. If they don't do it, they go bankrupt. Period. Lots of them did in the managed care / hospital group bloodletting of the 80s and 90s. It's just that managed health groups' mandates-entirely legitimate-are not the same as a viable public health service run by the Federal or State government for the general public good.

If the Feds or individual states want to spend lots of money and manhours on keeping a viable public health surge capacity going that's up to them. It hasn't really been done in decades. Or they can buy/rent/force majeure parking garages, dilapidated malls and motels and the like when it's too late.

I know that's the stated intent, but they are ALWAYS subject to the Iron Law of Bureaucracy.

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Post #: 1902
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:54:39 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
Most of the Epidemic curves on the John Hopkins' website look pretty typical-whether on the ascendant or the descendant or somewhere in between. This one of Denmark is odd. Any insight as to why they're seeing a bimodal hump with a gap in between?






Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1903
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 7:58:11 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Most of the Epidemic curves on the John Hopkins' website look pretty typical-whether on the ascendant or the descendant or somewhere in between. This one of Denmark is odd. Any insight as to why they're seeing a bimodal hump with a gap in between?

It seems like what many have cautioned about, regarding a re-surge of infections after non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) are lifted.

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Post #: 1904
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:03:11 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
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Norway
Confirmed: 2,779
Deaths: 12
Recovered: 6
Active: 2,761


Read online, posted by a Norwegian, low death due to eating lots of onions in the winter.


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Post #: 1905
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:04:07 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Most of the Epidemic curves on the John Hopkins' website look pretty typical-whether on the ascendant or the descendant or somewhere in between. This one of Denmark is odd. Any insight as to why they're seeing a bimodal hump with a gap in between?

It seems like what many have cautioned about, regarding a re-surge of infections after non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) are lifted.


Did they life their NPIs though? My thinking was along the lines of the "Wuhan spike" with different reporting / diagnostic case definitions / laboratory testing anomalies. Any Danes here that can shed further light on this?

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Post #: 1906
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:11:39 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Most of the Epidemic curves on the John Hopkins' website look pretty typical-whether on the ascendant or the descendant or somewhere in between. This one of Denmark is odd. Any insight as to why they're seeing a bimodal hump with a gap in between?

It seems like what many have cautioned about, regarding a re-surge of infections after non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI's) are lifted.


Did they life their NPIs though? My thinking was along the lines of the "Wuhan spike" with different reporting / diagnostic case definitions / laboratory testing anomalies. Any Danes here that can shed further light on this?

Don't know the answer to question about Denmark, but the numbers for China are highly suspicious overall. Caution gleaning lessons from them is advisable.

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Post #: 1907
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:11:45 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Most of the Epidemic curves on the John Hopkins' website look pretty typical-whether on the ascendant or the descendant or somewhere in between. This one of Denmark is odd. Any insight as to why they're seeing a bimodal hump with a gap in between?





March 13 was a Friday, weekend?

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/24/2020 8:12:21 PM >


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Post #: 1908
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:17:38 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
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From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Did they life their NPIs though? My thinking was along the lines of the "Wuhan spike" with different reporting / diagnostic case definitions / laboratory testing anomalies. Any Danes here that can shed further light on this?


See chart below which confirms the curve (with daily numbers). There's a compilation of Denmark-specific Covid-19 news articles here, but my cursory scan didn't find a reason for the early spike-then-drop. By no means a detailed look, so there probably is an explanation in there somewhere.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/24/2020 8:18:26 PM >


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Post #: 1909
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:25:02 PM   
MakeeLearn


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"On 10–11 March, Aalborg University Hospital, Regionshospital North Jutland Hjørring and Zealand University Hospital Roskilde introduced "drive-through" test facilities"

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Post #: 1910
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:25:07 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
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From: El Paso, TX
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Why a different curve for Denmark? Here it is:

quote:

From the end of February to March 11, people with both mild and more severe respiratory symptoms who traveled to Denmark from high-spreading countries were tested for COVID-19. This happened as part of the containment phase. As of March 12, as part of the mitigation strategy, people with inpatient symptoms for COVID-19 have been tested.

Thus, the number of confirmed cases in the report cannot be directly compared in the period before and after 12 March.


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Post #: 1911
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:33:33 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Looks like Denmark has a bigger problem with Campylobacter outbreaks.

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Post #: 1912
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:39:14 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Why use anything but Wikipedia for these sorts of things?

Right, I already added the Wikipedia screenshot to my post.


Ah ha - it's because the number for Canada which is most frequently cited includes its landlocked lakes. For "land only", the US is bigger but only just barely.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Third most populace? China and India are one and two, and isn't Russia number three?


Not even close, Comrade.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

I am beginning to wonder about the provenance of Worldometer figures. There were questions here about the COVID-19 figures and graphs. On Russia, I remember seeing a population figure of around 350 million - that was after the Soviet Union broke up too.
Worldometer also shows a larger land area for US than Canada when other references I have seen for many years say Canada is larger in area.

So the question is - who sponsors Worldometer, what is its expertise and sources of information and what fact-checking is done before they put stuff up? This could be a couple of guys publishing any old thing to get the advertising revenue rather than provide a solid source.


Why use anything but Wikipedia for these sorts of things?


OK. Here you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population

Russia still in 9th place.


Well yeah, Russia isn't that populous.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...


I'm going with: I really doubt it. Because that would be expensive and we don't pay for expensive things here unless they're sexy, shiny, or (insert more cynicism here).


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
so, unsure if this was posted last week and I'm not digging through the thread for it, but worth reposting even if it was: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals


Interesting. Decades of managed health and squeezing out 'excess capacity' from expensive hospitals hard at work. My dad was CFO of a number of managed health operations in California in the 1980s and 1990s. His tales of 'cost cutting' (read: hospital surge capacity cutting / 'cutting beds') back then have continued. I wonder if this episode will rekindle a national interest in developing standing capacity for the long run or if we'll just keep on the same path...

Never underestimate the mendacity of bureaucrats, and their inability to learn.


It's not bureaucrats, it's management consultants, politicians obsessed with (often short-sighted) "cost savings", and so on. Bureaucrats are, by and large, overworked and underpaid public servants who are doing laudable jobs with nowhere near enough in the way of resources.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Oh, I don't blame the managed health groups for the inescapable trends towards efficiency over time. That's their mandate. If they don't do it, they go bankrupt. Period. Lots of them did in the managed care / hospital group bloodletting of the 80s and 90s. It's just that managed health groups' mandates-entirely legitimate-are not the same as a viable public health service run by the Federal or State government for the general public good.

If the Feds or individual states want to spend lots of money and manhours on keeping a viable public health surge capacity going that's up to them. It hasn't really been done in decades. Or they can buy/rent/force majeure parking garages, dilapidated malls and motels and the like when it's too late.


Yep - it's a problem of political will more than anything else. The "Iron Law of Bureaucracy" (first time I've heard that term) is IMO, at its root, a political problem as well.

Lots of people were making fun of the Chinese rapidly building hospitals, with an obvious photo op at the start of their groundbreaking, but at least they were literally building temporary hospital capacity instead of dilly-dallying.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1913
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:48:00 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Lots of people were making fun of the Chinese rapidly building hospitals, with an obvious photo op at the start of their groundbreaking, but at least they were literally building temporary hospital capacity instead of dilly-dallying.

Credit where it is due, certainly, but the dilly-dallying took place weeks earlier with disastrous effect.

That photo-op non-sense just shows the shamelessness of journalism today, going for the click bait implication that whole hospitals were being built (and concrete drying!) in 3 days instead of covering the story in a legitimate way by showing and describing the massive, practical effort which was put forth.


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Post #: 1914
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:48:51 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

Why a different curve for Denmark? Here it is:

quote:

From the end of February to March 11, people with both mild and more severe respiratory symptoms who traveled to Denmark from high-spreading countries were tested for COVID-19. This happened as part of the containment phase. As of March 12, as part of the mitigation strategy, people with inpatient symptoms for COVID-19 have been tested.

Thus, the number of confirmed cases in the report cannot be directly compared in the period before and after 12 March.



Good find. Thanks.

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Post #: 1915
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:54:00 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Easy Peasy




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Post #: 1916
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 8:58:31 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Ok. This just blew my mind. Not sure what to make of it and if there is anything to it or not.

It doesn't seem plausible in any of the other major early centers of the disease; Wuhan, but especially Italy, as the population shouldn't support this theory. On the other hand there are so many reported asymptomatic cases and the Diamond Princess is still a conundrum. Thoughts?

I'll post some details since there is a paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?sharetype=blocked

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 


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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1917
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 9:03:00 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Lots of people were making fun of the Chinese rapidly building hospitals, with an obvious photo op at the start of their groundbreaking, but at least they were literally building temporary hospital capacity instead of dilly-dallying.


They've had plenty of time (last 18 years?) of dilly-dallying too. After the known connection between wildlife 'wet markets' associated with SARS (and avian influenza too-but that's a different story), a number of unenforced laws were passed which-on paper only-restricted such a hazardous zoonotic breeding ground. But they thrived anyways until the exact same dynamic arose with the Wuhan coronavirus.

The rapid construction of the tent cities (I choose not to use the term 'hospital') for the sick was window dressing for a disastrous series of public health choices over the last 20 years. All to not roil the population's antiquated tastes for wildlife wet markets.

They also literally welded people's doors closed to enforce the quarantine edicts. It'd take a lot of tent cities to offset their complicity in the introduction and spread of this disease in my mind.

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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1918
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 9:03:44 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
Regarding Obvert's post about the Oxford study:

The obvious problem is the notion that it spread for more than a month without being noticed. No one at risk got it and would up in ICU or worse?

The trouble with anti-body testing (AFAIK) is that it does not confirm when a person was infected or developed the anti-bodies, so by the time that could be done it still might do nothing to confirm this theory.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 3/24/2020 9:07:21 PM >


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(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1919
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/24/2020 9:06:40 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Lots of people were making fun of the Chinese rapidly building hospitals, with an obvious photo op at the start of their groundbreaking, but at least they were literally building temporary hospital capacity instead of dilly-dallying.


They've had plenty of time (last 18 years?) of dilly-dallying too. After the known connection between wildlife 'wet markets' associated with SARS (and avian influenza too-but that's a different story), a number of unenforced laws were passed which-on paper only-restricted such a hazardous zoonotic breeding ground. But they thrived anyways until the exact same dynamic arose with the Wuhan coronavirus.

The rapid construction of the tent cities (I choose not to use the term 'hospital') for the sick was window dressing for a disastrous series of public health choices over the last 20 years. All to not roil the population's antiquated tastes for wildlife wet markets.

They also literally welded people's doors closed to enforce the quarantine edicts. It'd take a lot of tent cities to offset their complicity in the introduction and spread of this disease in my mind.

+1

In January they claimed to other countries that the virus could not be transmitted human to human, in addition to punishing MD's who were trying to sound the alarm. Credit for the good things they did, and the bad too.

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(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 1920
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