Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

I saw this article last night positing a reason for the situation in Italy.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/

The author's theory is that the virus got into Italy's health care system as mild cases not recognized at the time, and has wound up hitting those elderly and vulnerable people whom we know have been hardest hit. The small updates at the end add new info that seems to mitigate in favor of his theory.

While this may be true, the author lists no evidence to support his claim other than the already known age related and co-morbidity numbers. I don't know that those would be terribly different elsewhere. He also doesn't mention that many younger people are hospitalised and need ICUs, etc, which in a triage system likely means those with less chance to survive treatment (age and co-morbidity) are not given the ICU beds. I'd say this as much as anything might be why higher numbers of older people have died. I have no official evidence either, though I have heard this form several first hand accounts of Italian hospitals right now, unfortunately.

It's been widely reported here that one should avoid the Emergency section of any hospital right now in London, as you're likely to come into contact with multiple cases of Covid. I'm sure whether it spreads early or later, those in hospital already were indeed very vulnerable to those who were treating them, visiting them and didn't know they were passing the virus.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

...we all need to get ready for major changes in our lives" ...

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well.

possible explanations:

1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated

2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg.

3) Japan has a 100% water frontier.

4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help.

5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams.

6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

Don't try the Japanese approach in the UK. Not sure British seniors are as healthy.

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ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

In other words they are treating it exactly like the flu and explicitly avoiding the release of information which can only fuel media insanity.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Chicoms actually accepted lung CT as diagnostic for inclusion into the COVID-19 numbers. They also didn't have enough test kits either at the start. Plus, you can estimate the amount of COPD as well and it was probably useful to tell who would need a vent soon.

I suspect by the time this is over you just throw away your worn out $1M CT machine and don't bother with disinfecting the thing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

In other words they are treating it exactly like the flu and explicitly avoiding the release of information which can only fuel media insanity.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We posted and discussed the article about the Stanford Noble laureate scientist a couple of days ago, though this thread is so long now that it's basically impossible to keep up.

Hey, we've got our two resident medical experts contributing now, plus our in-house granularity/stats/demographics guru. The quality of information in here is exponentially better than what's available to the general public, IMO.

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

BB, I remain skeptical about the reported figures on covid-19.

First, I think way more people have had it than have tested positive. For all we know it could be 3-4 times the number.

Secondly, as a corollary the serious illness/death rate is being overstated, and is a much lower percentage, and in absolute terms, the flu is concurrently causing more deaths.

Thirdly, the vast majority of the hundreds and thousands of people world wide who have/had it and aren't counted, had no symptoms, or symptoms so mild that they didn't even notice it.

The current mass lock-downs are very arguably an over-reaction - and are causing economic damage that is unnecessary.

How are you working out the flu comparisons?

At the risk of comparing apples with oranges I'm going to treat Hubei (58m) Italy (61m), Spain (47m) and the UK (67m) as roughly analogous in terms of population and healthcare provision.

From the 2014 to 2019 winter flu seasons the UK had on average 17000 deaths a year from flu. That works out as 46/day. If we assume that the flu season is restricted to 4 winter months you get to 140/day. The death rate in Hubei reached that point in less than a month before their lockdown arrested the rise. If we are positive and say that Italy is at the top of their curve they are running at c600 deaths daily. Spain still seems to be on an upward trend and is at c500 deaths daily.

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By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data

-infected: 3,491
-cured: 1.036
-dead: 683

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

The WHO figures for flu deaths per annum is about 390,000 world wide. I have seen other estimates as high as 600,000. C19 has a long way to go to get to that level.

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The Spanish military has found older residents of some care homes "completely abandoned" and even "dead in their beds," Defense Minister Margarita Robles said in a television interview on Monday.
.
.
.
Speaking in a television interview, Robles said staff in some centers had left the nursing homes after cases of COVID-19 were detected. Residents were abandoned to take care of themselves, even though some were sick and in serious condition.

The defense minister said the government will take action against those responsible. "We will be completely relentless and forceful with the kind of treatment elderly residents receive in these centers," Robles said. "I know that a vast majority [of centers] are fulfilling their obligations."

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well.

possible explanations:

1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated

2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg.

3) Japan has a 100% water frontier.

4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help.

5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams.

6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments.

So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

Don't try the Japanese approach in the UK. Not sure British seniors are as healthy.

Strangely enough, this was very much like the original government plan. Let it run through the population and get "herd immunity" earlier. They quickly realised hospitalisations were much more prevalent than they'd predicted, especially for younger people infected. Which is what makes me wonder about the Japanese. It's not the old so much as the younger, those 2-050, who should still be having to go to the hospital for 5-10% of cases.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ITAK, can you double-check those numbers? Worldometers is reporting the 683 dead, but 5,210 new cases (not 3,491).

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ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Today's data

-infected: 3,491
-cured: 1.036
-dead: 683

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We posted and discussed the article about the Stanford Noble laureate scientist a couple of days ago, though this thread is so long now that it's basically impossible to keep up.

Hey, we've got our two resident medical experts contributing now, plus our in-house granularity/stats/demographics guru. The quality of information in here is exponentially better than what's available to the general public, IMO.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

The WHO figures for flu deaths per annum is about 390,000 world wide. I have seen other estimates as high as 600,000. C19 has a long way to go to get to that level.

Some unknown pages back I posted a link to a study which looked at years in the early-mid 2000's. They concluded agreement with other studies which looked at later periods, and gave their average as 389,000 worldwide while noting other years as you mentioned, plus others about 200,000.

It seems there is lots of agreement that 390k figure is reliable to use as an average.

quote:


On Monday, the city’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, announced a 14-day ban on nonresident visitors and asked bars to stop serving alcohol. The ban on visitors resulted Tuesday in a crush of arrivals, who will all be under 14-day quarantine orders.

The moves come as the number of cases in Hong Kong nears 400. Singapore, meanwhile, reported 54 new cases on Monday, its highest single-day total yet. The island, which did so well to stave off an early outbreak, has now seen 558 cases and its first two deaths, which were announced on Saturday.

...

In Taiwan, where cases remained in the double digits until mid-March, 20 new cases were added to the tally Tuesday, bringing the total to 215.

The second wave of outbreaks is being blamed largely on people traveling from abroad. Taiwan says 158 of its 215 cases were imported, Hong Kong says most of its new cases are due to travelers, and of Singapore’s 558 cases, 326 are purportedly due to people coming from outside the country.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.