Lokasenna
Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
Governor Hogan issues Stay at Home directive for Maryland
But there are enough loopholes that it has no effect, other than all the maggots re-storming the stores and grabbing all the Toilet Paper, again. Way to go Hogan, you slob.
Meanwhile, local home improvement company Window Nation is offering special COVID-19 deals to help out the citizens of Md. in these trying times. Similarly, a local carpet cleaning company is offering a 'two rooms for one deal' in order to do their part in keeping homes clean, a requisite in fighting off the virus.
Go Maryland !!
Window Nation always has "deals". Neat about the carpet cleaning, but AFAIK it's hard surfaces and not carpets that you have to worry about for infection... and anybody in a house who is infected should be sequestered. So I'm not sure what difference it makes.
I don't like Hogan either, but he's done a fine job of handling this. The "loopholes" are the same as the guidance before, except that now if you don't follow them you are subject to receiving a citation with a fine (up to $5,000) and potential jail time (presumably they'd only do this if you were doing like that guy who got arrested in Howard County for throwing a bonfire party last week). I think people should probably care less what the "maggots" are doing.
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ORIGINAL: alanschu
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I did a quick catch-up and I see a lot of pessimism here. For instance, 100,000-200,000 deaths in the U.S.? How is that possible?
For me it's just about looking at the current rates and making estimates based on expectations from China and Italy's reported progress (Increasingly have less confidence in China's accuracy, but Italy seems to possibly be following it).
US *has* slid from deaths doubling every 3 days to every 4 days according to our world in data (which is good!), so I shifted my numbers from 1.26 per day to 1.19 (this does make a pretty big difference) and updated the initial number to 3156. Assuming a plateau of about 10 days:
If we plateau in 7 days, 27k deaths when the US starts its decline.
If we plateau in 14 days, it's 93k deaths
To see how big of a difference a change in the rate makes, at doubling every 3 days it'd be:
7 days: 49k deaths
14 days: 245k deaths
The biggest x-factor for US I think is it's geography and how far had the virus spread to places that we are less aware of. The geographical distance is good to mitigate infection, but there may have been travel that delayed some of the outbreaks. It also will do weird things to the aggregate US numbers as a place like NY state may decline while for example Michigan's numbers get worse. I could see this meaning a peak that doesn't get as high but a plateau that lasts longer.
Thanks for your back-of-the-envelope estimates/maths. Your reasoning is on the same track as mine. I think part of the reason, perhaps the biggest reason, we are below the "Italian curve" (while other countries are almost exactly on it) as a whole country is because we are so geographically large and the spread of the virus is going to take some time. That's a good thing for the overall impact on us, in terms of number of deaths. Obviously, isolation and stay-at-home orders help, too.
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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
MindMessing has misrepresented the truth of what has been said by his fellow Forumites and the spirit in which things have been said.
You should probably delete this and the subsequent posts. I think maybe you didn't have your morning caffeine yet?
As an American, there has been an undercurrent of "American exceptionalism" to some posts - perhaps unintentionally, but it's been there.
Back on topic - really concerning news out of Wuhan today that dashes at least some of the "this might not be as bad as estimates have been making it out to be" optimism, via WaPo (emphasis mine in an attempt to preempt any "reopening is happening in Wuhan" headlines):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
quote:
People are allowed out of their residential complexes only if they have a return-to-work pass issued by their employer, and only if the government-issued health code on their cellphone glows green — not orange or red — to show that they are healthy and cleared for travel. Residents report that some complexes deemed infection-free have quietly lost that status, without explanation.
In the malls that opened this week, people must stand five feet apart on escalators, and clothes that customers have tried on must be sprayed with disinfectant. Subway passengers must wear masks and sit two seats apart; footage on state media showed near-deserted cars and stations.
...
Chinese authorities are discovering that allowing people — even those without fevers who are wearing surgical masks and are doused in hand sanitizer — to get too close to each other risks a new rise in infections. Recent media reports have focused on “silent carriers,” and studies have found that as many as one-third of people infected with the coronavirus show delayed or no symptoms. “The possibility of a new round of infections remains relatively high,” National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said Sunday.
< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/31/2020 4:44:03 PM >
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