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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 3:50:47 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

You should plant them and grow some chickens!

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Post #: 2701

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 3:51:48 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Thanks for the education Obvert. Pretty part of the world you live in. Only got to visit a couple of times. Was coming back late summer. Not so sure now

I miss it. It's where I spent my first 29 years, in Oregon and Washington. We travelled a lot throughout the NW and to see those landscapes and spend real time in them is pretty good. SE Oregon is a hidden gem, off the radar for most. One of the reasons I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

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Post #: 2702

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 3:54:31 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

I hope you saved room for the Hendrick's somewhere too!

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Post #: 2703

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 3:59:56 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

I almost forgot! Imports/Exports! No. Forget about them. Well, some countries, like Kenya, are still exporting - at 300% the usual price. The EU is trying to create a new set of rules to facilitate the internal circulation of fresh products - but you must have a surplus of fresh products to circulate them.

Now, believe it or not, all of the above is only the "rock". Explaining the "hard place" is much simpler: since a couple of months many workers choose to not work at all for fear of the virus, and it was so sudden that it was impossible to replace them in time. The fields and orchards assigned to them are barren.

There is no way around it. We will have shortages in the markets and most of the "basic food" prices will go up. This will affect everyone, even the rich, because you cannot buy something that it is not there. But the impact on the poors will be devastating - in a situation where Italy is already a ticking bomb.

Hard to argue with that. Labor intensive harvesting is going to suffer. Fruits and fresh vegetables. I am still seeing harvesting of stawberries and high value crops going on in SoCal but huge numbers of laborers are needed for lettuce and peppers and avocados and the like. Grains are mostly harvested by machine in the US.

A lot of kids used to do this work as their summer jobs. I picked berries with a field 80% full of Central Americans when I was 15, and they kicked my butt in terms of speed. They could get two flats done while I was still finishing my first.

It sounds like they'll have to get farming communities out doing this work. I'd say put some rules in place and let people earn a bit extra while getting some air and eating few fresh fruit and veg during their shifts. It's pretty easy to distance in a field, and if it's locals, who can get there without a bus, it could be viable.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2704

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:11:21 PM

obvert

Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

@obvert: A request. Can you find an updated map showing the case doubling rate map that you showed a few days ago? It was the one that compared different countries' 'trajectory' re: when cases doubled (every two days/every three days/ whatnot). If you can identify a recent one that shows regional distributions (e.g., northern Italy and certain US states), that would be welcome too. Thanks.

The one the FT does is for cases by country/day, and they have them by region for deaths, below. As we now suspect, that Wuhan curve may need some adjustment.

Today thought they took off the doubling/tripling lines for some reason, but the comparisons are there.

It's this thread: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/1/2020 4:12:11 PM >

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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 2705

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:14:37 PM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

I hope you saved room for the Hendrick's somewhere too!

Well, that you can stack up on the counter. I bought so many olives everyone laughed at me. Who's laughing now, eh? Improbably, we finished off the vermouth. Tonic water is gone too.

<eyes get big> The distillaries are making hand sanitizer now.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 2706

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:22:35 PM

Cap Mandrake

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From: Southern California
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

@obvert: A request. Can you find an updated map showing the case doubling rate map that you showed a few days ago? It was the one that compared different countries' 'trajectory' re: when cases doubled (every two days/every three days/ whatnot). If you can identify a recent one that shows regional distributions (e.g., northern Italy and certain US states), that would be welcome too. Thanks.

The one the FT does is for cases by country/day, and they have them by region for deaths, below. As we now suspect, that Wuhan curve may need some adjustment.

Today thought they took off the doubling/tripling lines for some reason, but the comparisons are there.

It's this thread: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

If you fame-shift the Lombardy curve back 14 days and the Madrid curve back 12 days or so I think they are slightly steeper than the New York curve.

Ignore the absolute value. Lombardy has about half the population of NY state. NY city alone has an incredible 8 million people crammed into 300 sq mi

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Post #: 2707

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:24:45 PM

Cap Mandrake

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From: Southern California
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The Wuhan curve is complete fabrication.

The South Korean results are astounding.

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Post #: 2708

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:36:11 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there?

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Post #: 2709

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:37:05 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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The flattening trend in Italy continues, yet the numbers are stubbornly high.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2710

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:42:16 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Here's the Worldometers mortality chart for South Korea. Undoubtedly, the choppiness is due to the low numbers - never above nine in a single day. So a mortality or two results in the big swings, day to day.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2711

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:42:31 PM

MakeeLearn

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"For example, in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests for COVID-19, officials found a fatality rate of 0.6%."

https://www.livescience.com/is-coronavirus-deadly.html

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Post #: 2712

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:46:27 PM

MakeeLearn

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As Cap Mandrake alluded to earlier...

Why are young, healthy people dying from COVID-19? Genes may reveal the answer.
a day ago

https://www.livescience.com/genes-for-covid19-coronavirus-severity.html

"Several ongoing projects aim to analyze and compare the DNA of those with severe COVID-19 infection to those with mild or asymptomatic cases. Differences may lie in genes that instruct human cells to build a receptor called ACE2, which the novel coronavirus relies on to enter cells, Science reported. Alternatively, it may be that genes that support the body's immune response to the virus differ between individuals, or that those with particular blood types carry protective genetic traits that shield them from illness, as suggested by a preliminary study from China."

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Post #: 2713

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:48:53 PM

MakeeLearn

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Mother Nature is trying to solve some of our other problems that people B***H about.

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Post #: 2714

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:52:35 PM

alanschu

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Joined: 12/21/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

As per one of my previous posts, a Coronavirus was killing people from 2005 to 2013 and being labeled as THE FLU.

If I'm not mistaken, I think I saw a breakdown that Coronavirus is in a similar genetic family to the common cold which does share a lot of flu symptoms as well? If so I could see a less contagious strain of it being considered the flu by a lot of people.

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Post #: 2715

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:54:19 PM

MakeeLearn

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type A blood was the most prominent in Korea, accounting for roughly 34 percent of the population,
followed by type O (28 percent),
type B (27 percent),
and type AB (11 percent),
according to Gallup Korea.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/1/2020 4:55:34 PM >

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Post #: 2716

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:59:03 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Like 22sec's report about Mississippi, the situation in Georgia isn't quite what you'd take from the map (though we don't have a statewide shelter-in-place edict).

Here, the state mostly allowed local governments to handle regulations and ordinances. They did so surprisingly quickly. Schools closed, social distancing regulations were enacted, and some jurisdictions issued stay-at-home orders much earlier than other states and many European countries. (As noted before this is because the US had the benefit of going "last," learning from others.)

To this point, the local discretion seems to be working well. High density populations tend to have much stricter policies, while rural ones are a bit more relaxed. But even in the rural counties, the schools closed before those in England did, which seems counterintuitive to what would've been expected.

There will be many ways to look at this in the future. Among the more puzzling aspects is how Washington and California have done comparatively well, considering they were bushwhacked early in the process.

quote:

ORIGINAL: 22sec

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The FT have updated their US map to show what restrictions are in place state by state in the US. There are still a lot of states without any order to stay home it seems, and yet those all show cases present. Some quite a few, like Florida. Has there been informal suggestion to stay at home and isolate in these areas, or what is the message from local and state governments?

Here in Mississippi the governor has either left it up to local communities, or if the Department of Health advises a shelter in place for a community based on their data. For a state like ours, I believe it�s the better approach. There are plenty of rural counties that such an order doesn�t make sense. Hear in Jackson, the mayor just today has issued a shelter in place order. Even in that order there are numerous provisions for leaving the house.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/1/2020 5:04:41 PM >

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Post #: 2717

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:00:06 PM

MakeeLearn

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Who did not see this coming.

Hasn't there been a movie, tv show, book about this every two years.... or less.

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Post #: 2718

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:00:09 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

Costco has Doritos Nachos Cheese chips on sale.

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Post #: 2719

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:06:43 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

I'm a bit surprised by some of the places it got to also. In NYC, we thought we had 2 weeks only to find out it was here for 4 weeks already. Who knows how. It's a port and a hub. China maybe, Italy probably. Students are moving it around. Many study overseas. Louisiana has thousands of cases, made worse by Mardi Gras but for every case they have 5 got on a plane and took it somewhere else. Same with Spring Break. Just read this morning Idaho is picking lots of cases in the ski towns by people fleeing the west coast. Same in Utah and Colorado. It's insidious. It hides for weeks and then it is everywhere. I expect when the great big book of this is written many of the flu deaths in late 2019 early 202 may get reclassified. The social distancing is starting to work. We will lose many but buy some time. When this comes back in the fall we will be better prepared. The new normal is still being defined

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Post #: 2720

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:11:02 PM

MakeeLearn

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The new normal is still being defined.

As PER my previous post. That was declared IRRELEVANT.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/1/2020 5:14:49 PM >

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Post #: 2721

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:15:45 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I was surprised to see a few cases even listed out there on the NY Times county based map.

I'm a bit surprised by some of the places it got to also. In NYC, we thought we had 2 weeks only to find out it was here for 4 weeks already. Who knows how. It's a port and a hub. China maybe, Italy probably. Students are moving it around. Many study overseas. Louisiana has thousands of cases, made worse by Mardi Gras but for every case they have 5 got on a plane and took it somewhere else. Same with Spring Break. Just read this morning Idaho is picking lots of cases in the ski towns by people fleeing the west coast. Same in Utah and Colorado. It's insidious. It hides for weeks and then it is everywhere. I expect when the great big book of this is written many of the flu deaths in late 2019 early 202 may get reclassified. The social distancing is starting to work. We will lose many but buy some time. When this comes back in the fall we will be better prepared. The new normal is still being defined

Similarly, I read somewhere greater than a million people left Hubei Province to travel for Chinese New Year shortly before the lock-down. Most of the world is very mobile now.

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Post #: 2722

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:25:32 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
There will be many ways to look at this in the future. Among the more puzzling aspects is how Washington and California have done comparatively well, considering they were bushwhacked early in the process.

As our resident SoCal physician has stated (I've heard this echoed by other physicians and nursing specialists elsewhere), not everybody has been tested, even with appropriate clinical signs. If they are clinical, they're being treated as presumptive positives and triaged accordingly. Testing delays are ongoing and stubborn. In California, they still have some >50,000 tests 'pending'. And they're taking 9-11 days to come back from some labs due to backlog. This jibes with what I'm hearing from a SoDak physician friend who cites a similar timeframe.

Here in my neck of the woods, there are ongoing issues with PPE, test availability and timeliness and so forth as well.

But in communities in CA and TX, there have been significant social distancing countermeasures enacted. Schools here have largely been closed since March 13. The Governor just announced a statewide mandatory shutdown of all public schools until May 4. So, this map is now outdated in terms of some of the state-wide provisions as it apparently is only measuring mandated 'stay at home' statewide orders and does not recognize many iterative local, regional and even statewide protective measures just shy of that mandate.

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Post #: 2723

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:29:24 PM

Chickenboy

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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there?

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

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Post #: 2724

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:48:07 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there?

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/1/2020 5:49:27 PM >

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Post #: 2725

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:48:12 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Ignore this duplicative post and report it to the Moderator in the nearby thread, where everybody's ignoring the Moderator.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/1/2020 5:49:05 PM >

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Post #: 2726

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 5:51:05 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there?

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.

No. You're right. I was misreading it. I assumed that the X,Y "0" coordinate was set at 0, not 10.

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Post #: 2727

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 6:01:31 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

I went looking for Kull, who hasn't posted in here in about five days or so, and noted that the Forum shows him as "Online" at the moment. So hopefully he's doing fine and will be back here soon.

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Post #: 2728

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 6:08:59 PM

Sammy5IsAlive

Posts: 514
Joined: 8/4/2014
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Doesn't the FT chart show Daegu with more than 20 daily deaths for the past ten days or so (contrary to the data from the Worldometers bar chart)? I don't think I'm misreading it, but perhaps I am?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think there's something wrong with the Daegu numbers. South Korea daily mortality has never exceeded nine in a day, per Worldometers, but the FT chart above shows Daegu, presumably just a part of S. Korea, as above 20 each day. What's going on there?

Could it be the logarithmic aspect of the Y axis in the chart that's throwing you? It looks like Daegu has been mostly under 10, with a small tick just up from that recently.