Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

+1

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ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

I think it's time for you guys to agree to disagree and PLEASE let this go.

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ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

always remember this post... mid January

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So applying Occam's razor-the most likely explanation for the REPORTED lack of spread throughout China isn't that it didn't spread through China. It's that it wasn't reported / was lied about / was downplayed / was covered up.

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Moreover, researchers in Italy believe that the Chinese were not telling the truth about the origins or birth dates of the virus; they argue that COVID-19 was first loose worldwide in the middle of Autumn 2019 rather than in Winter 2020. Reuters recently reported:

Adriano Decarli, an epidemiologist and medical statistics professor at the University of Milan, said there had been a “significant” increase in the number of people hospitalized for pneumonia and flu in the areas of Milan and Lodi between October and December last year. . . . He told Reuters he could not give exact figures but “hundreds” more people than usual had been taken to hospital in the last three months of 2019 in those areas — two of Lombardy’s worst hit cities — with pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, and some of those had died. . . . Decarli is reviewing the hospital records and other clinical details of those cases, including people who later died at home, to try to understand whether the new coronavirus epidemic had already spread to Italy back then. . . . “We want to know if the virus was already here in Italy at the end of 2019, and — if yes — why it remained undetected for a relatively long period so that we could have a clearer picture in case we have to face a second wave of the epidemic,” he said.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

One thing that strikes me is that China seemed to react swiftly and strongly enough to confine the outbreak to a particular region within their own country.

The question then raises itself - how in contrast did it get out and spread so far internationally? Were the Chinese withholding information and frustrating the kinds of measures that could have pinned the virus down when it started appearing elsewhere?

Meh. Some 15MM people left Wuhan prior to the last trains stopping.

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So applying Occam's razor-the most likely explanation for the REPORTED lack of spread throughout China isn't that it didn't spread through China. It's that it wasn't reported / was lied about / was downplayed / was covered up.

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ORIGINAL: alanschu
is it safe to say that the curve is probably accurate?

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

One thing that strikes me is that China seemed to react swiftly and strongly enough to confine the outbreak to a particular region within their own country.

The question then raises itself - how in contrast did it get out and spread so far internationally? Were the Chinese withholding information and frustrating the kinds of measures that could have pinned the virus down when it started appearing elsewhere?

Meh. Some 15MM people left Wuhan prior to the last trains stopping. There was pandemonium and chaos on the (packed) last trains out. Presumably they wanted to get out of the area for the pending Chinese New Year and visit their families back in their 'home' provinces. It's quite likely that many of these were infected and then took the virus out of Wuhan to their families. If you look at a map of Chinese infections you'll see that most of their provinces have some positive cases.

It's also quite likely-probable even-that when these same visiting people got sick and developed symptoms they either intentionally did not self-report to the authorities (for fear of what the government would do to them or the stigma associated with being infected). REPORTED Chinese cases outside of Wuhan area have been very low. Inexplicably low by what we know now about the virus' ability to transmit efficiently in large social settings.

So applying Occam's razor-the most likely explanation for the REPORTED lack of spread throughout China isn't that it didn't spread through China. It's that it wasn't reported / was lied about / was downplayed / was covered up.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Dang it, MakeeLearn. You are the Goosebump, Tennesse, virus, proliferating wildly, beyond control, threatening to overcome the world.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

One thing that strikes me is that China seemed to react swiftly and strongly enough to confine the outbreak to a particular region within their own country.

The question then raises itself - how in contrast did it get out and spread so far internationally? Were the Chinese withholding information and frustrating the kinds of measures that could have pinned the virus down when it started appearing elsewhere?

Meh. Some 15MM people left Wuhan prior to the last trains stopping. There was pandemonium and chaos on the (packed) last trains out. Presumably they wanted to get out of the area for the pending Chinese New Year and visit their families back in their 'home' provinces. It's quite likely that many of these were infected and then took the virus out of Wuhan to their families. If you look at a map of Chinese infections you'll see that most of their provinces have some positive cases.

It's also quite likely-probable even-that when these same visiting people got sick and developed symptoms they either intentionally did not self-report to the authorities (for fear of what the government would do to them or the stigma associated with being infected). REPORTED Chinese cases outside of Wuhan area have been very low. Inexplicably low by what we know now about the virus' ability to transmit efficiently in large social settings.

So applying Occam's razor-the most likely explanation for the REPORTED lack of spread throughout China isn't that it didn't spread through China. It's that it wasn't reported / was lied about / was downplayed / was covered up.

Who knows really. The Chinese may well have a much bigger problem out in the countryside that they are covering up. But for me an outbreak on a similar scale to Wuhan/Lombardy/Madrid etc in a city like Beijing with 20m people is not something that even the Chinese could keep under wraps.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

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That's what I'd expect, with the US having 5.33x the population.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

Nothing - what have you heard and what do you think it means? In plain english if possible and not in Delphic utterances.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


what have you heard about the state of their military, through all of this?

Nothing - what have you heard and what do you think it means? In plain english if possible and not in Delphic utterances.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and-panic-in-the-rush-to-catch-last-trains-from-wuhan-11579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

American intelligence agencies report to the President that China......wait for it...LIED about the numbers...thus hampering public health decisions worldwide and making containment impossible.

I'm shocked I tell you...SHOCKED!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and-panic-in-the-rush-to-catch-last-trains-from-wuhan-11579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and-panic-in-the-rush-to-catch-last-trains-from-wuhan-11579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: obvert

What number is this? 15MM?

15 million. 15,000,000. Sometimes the "M" is used to designate million, sometimes "MM" is used in abbreviative parlance.

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

Here's Wuhan's mayor:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mayor-of-wuhan-epicenter-of-coronavirus-outbreak-says-5-million-people-left-the-city-before-travel-restrictions-were-imposed-2020-01-26

They also intentionally held a record breaking potluck-style dinner hosting 40,000 people within the city after the outbreak was a recognized issue.

Here's a description of the chaos aboard the last trains out:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relief-and-panic-in-the-rush-to-catch-last-trains-from-wuhan-11579791131

"Once they close our way out, who is brave enough to stay?" Indeed. Also, who would be brave enough to admit, after leaving Wuhan, that they had started another hotspot in a different province?

So 5 million left, and went all over the place. So maybe it's been shut down in the rest of China or maybe it's a more established form of "the dance" stage, where outbreaks flare constantly and are suppressed. Hard to know, but it seems like we'd hear something, especially from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong.

My wife has business partners in Sian, and they uniformly state things are back to normal outside of cinemas being closed.

Will be SO when that happens here.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I probably should have said "Wubei", but meant the area around Wuhan rather than the city-and only the city-of Wuhan proper.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Doing telehealth...between consults the camera goes back to me so I move my head around and adjust seating for the best shot.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

This is exactly what I previously alluded to about Delphic utterances.

In the UK we used to have a TV show called Catchphrase. The catchphrase of Catchphrase was 'say what you see'.

Do you think that China deliberately spread this virus (by omission if not by commission) in order to pursue their own imperialistic aims, by military force if necessary?

If so - then 'say what you see'.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

But then the Chinese Army would not be needed until much later.
You can get the enemy to do to itself what you have a lot of problems to do to them.

This is exactly what I previously alluded to about Delphic utterances.

In the UK we used to have a TV show called Catchphrase. The catchphrase of Catchphrase was 'say what you see'.

Do you think that China deliberately spread this virus (by omission if not by commission) in order to pursue their own imperialistic aims, by military force if necessary?

If so - then 'say what you see'.

Trying to keep the words, from locking the thread. It is a scenario, even w/o their military force.