Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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Actually there are many posts that show how this thread is rather successful in self-moderating.

A variant of a famous joke:

A man is praying to his God in a fully packed holy site.

MAN: Oh God, hear us! Save us from the Coronavirus!

GOD: I sent to you fair warnings, scientists, doctors, nurses, the rule of KEEPING SOCIAL DISTANCE. What the heck do you want now?

There are a growing number of outbreaks tied to religious gatherings in the USA. The early ones may have been accidental but every day I hear another report of some institution that gets their congregation together. Almost invariably, many people get sick from these gatherings in the days and weeks after. I know in most places the Catholic Church's have closed long ago. Fist time since 1918 I understand. Almost of houses of worship are closed, the ones they try and remain open are paying a terrible price.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

Still, a model within 6% of the actual value is pretty damned good. A Hell of a lot better than the daily Racing Form. It does seem someone fed Governor Cuomo some alarmist ventilator need numbers. Even so, it must be a stressful job. The NY Mayor seems to have become a bit unglued. He's still holding up better than Ray Nagin did.

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ORIGINAL: HansBolter

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, Tolsdorf, for what it's worth, I haven't heard assertions of "people wanting old people to die" in any discourse and coverage I've been part of or seen/heard. That's just not part of the conversations I've heard.

You would have had to be paying attention to the unhinged rantings and ravings of celebrities to take notice of this.

Back when Trump first started making statements about balancing the degree of shut down to keep the cure from being worse than the disease it was Cher that claimed he wanted to kill her mother to protect 'his' economy.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree, CAP. However, this is only a day or two into the model, so you'd expect it to hit close to the mark. On the other hand, I'd expect big perturbations in daily cases. I didn't mean to suggest that 6% under prediction would be a norm, but rather than the daily comparison would be something to keep an eye on.

Hey, that source predicts 93k deaths in the USA. That's alot of people, but way better than so many other predictions, ranging from the famous "100k to 200k" to the earlier "1.7 million."

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

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ORIGINAL: HansBolter

It isn't a far fetched notion that the youngsters might just start seeing this as nature's methodology for culling the overpopulated herd.

May not be long before we Boomers start being seen as expendible.

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It isn't a far fetched notion that the youngsters might just start seeing this as nature's methodology for culling the overpopulated herd.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I agree, CAP. However, this is only a day or two into the model, so you'd expect it to hit close to the mark. On the other hand, I'd expect big perturbations in daily cases. I didn't mean to suggest that 6% under prediction would be a norm, but rather than the daily comparison would be something to keep an eye on.

Hey, that source predicts 93k deaths in the USA. That's alot of people, but way better than so many other predictions, ranging from the famous "100k to 200k" to the earlier "1.7 million."

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is one of the three charts in the link given by Erik Rutens yesterday (link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections)

The image here shows the graph of expected mortality by day in the USA. For April 2, the projection was 1,036. The actual number (by Worldometers) was 968. So nearly 70 below the prediction, or roughly 6%.

If the daily number continues to fall beneath the projection, the death toll will, of course, be lower than projected.

The total mortality projected by this source is 93,000, with a range of 40k to about 178k. If we come in under the 93k, or significantly under, that's going to be remarkable.

Yes, absolutely, it will diverge. Of course, we are able to predict sea level rise within in a few mm 100 years from now.

(Sorry, couldn't help myself)

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ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hospitalizations, deaths higher for coronavirus patients with diabetes
CDT April 2, 2020
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/hospitalizations-deaths-higher-for-coronavirus-patients-with-diabetes/287-bae9a254-cf39-44dd-9731-947b3d285f95


"DALLAS — According to Dallas County Health and Human Services, 28% of COVID-19 patients who have required hospitalization in Dallas County are diabetic.

While the state of Texas says it does not yet have data to provide trends showing diabetes and coronavirus complications, Louisiana does.

Data released by the state health department on Monday shows 40% of Louisiana patients who died from COVID-19 had diabetes. "

Since about 26% of Americans over 65 are diabetic (per AMA), then the fact that 28% of COVID-19 patients are diabetic is to be expected. The REAL question is - what percent of diabetic COVID-19 patients die and what percent recover ? Asking for a friend.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'd seen that report and others previously. Vaping and obesity were suggested as possible reasons.

Similarly, there were certain younger populations in China affected, and the thought there was smoking.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well I haven't been buying the comments re Germany. And suddenly their critical cases seem to have exploded from a consistently tiny figure (I don't believe the UK critical figure either - or the recovered number come to that).

If the reasons given for such a low German death rate were to be believed, surely there is no reason - following even tighter lock down measures - that their deaths and criticals should suddenly start rising? Even for a country as efficient as Germany, those numbers (compared to all those around them) just didn't stack up. Or maybe this is just a blip. I watch this with interest. For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is anything sinister here - I just think there may have been a difference in procedure (how deaths are checked for Corona) and reporting.

It's been posted numerous times on this thread and there is abundant info on Germany available with a quick search.

1. Case age average up until about 3-4 days ago was 46 years old. Very low
2. This was caused mainly by skiing crowd picking it up and coming back, then partying at Carnival.
3. Older people told early on to isolate, no visits to care homes, etc.
4. Extensive testing and case tracking early.
5. Extensive testing finds more mild or asymptomatic cases bring the mortality rates down.

There are a lot of reports that now it's finding a way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulneable, so as seen elsewhere, this would bring up critical cases and mortality.

In the UK London is the centre of this so far and only 11% of Londoners are over 70, IIRC. There are obviously other risk factors though, and low testing means mortality rates will at least seem higher until we know more about who has or has had this.

warspite1

Yes I know. I do take the time to read (most peoples) comments on here. The fact that explanations (which are often not fact but opinion and guesswork) have been given doesn't mean that I, or anyone else, has to agree with them. In particular the idea that Germany got the disease largely (though of course not entirely) as a result of fit and healthy young skiers coming back to Germany and then, apparently, not having any relatives, friends or work colleagues - old or young - to spread the virus too is to my mind absurd. Many won't have known they had the virus in the early days and besides, many, many people were not taking it seriously then - even now there are a great many who aren't.

And as queried, if Germany has done such a fantastic job of containing the virus and protecting the elderly in the early days then why, in a climate where lock downs and awareness is even greater, does the virus only now start "finding its way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulnerable"? Knowing the German way of going about business I fully expect that they have been far more organised than say the British or French (to name just two) and had they not been, things could have been a whole lot worse. But despite this, I just think those numbers are too low given what we know about the voraciousness with which it spreads.

I may be way off base, but my gut feel is that they've not been measuring the way others have - and as said I am not suggesting for one moment this is for any sinister reason.

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I'd seen that report and others previously. Vaping and obesity were suggested as possible reasons.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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But travel is a different thing altogether. This article mentions also that about 1/3 of that number were Americans returning home from travelling in China. All you have to do is look at the number of normally scheduled fights around the world to see that this stuff will spread regardless of intent.

I didn't make myself clear. I'm not saying they intentionally manufactured the virus or even ordered infected people to leave. What they did was not warn the rest of the world in a timely fashion as was their negotiated obligation. That has to be either extreme negligence or intent. The obvious cover-up and laughable propaganda claims since makes me think it was the latter.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We are never going to get outside again. The MTA, who runs the subways in NYC, has many employees out with Covid adding to the previous service cuts. Subways are sometimes erratic, and some folks are continuing to work and commute, probably by necessity. I won't go near the things myself, but if this continues (an isolated incident I hope) this wont end. The subways need to be shut down.

warspite1

Sadly London is the same..... Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

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ORIGINAL: geofflambert

I'm not able to spend the time to follow this thread closely, but I did see mention of a couple of issues I'd like to comment on despite having no qualifications whatever. First on the hydro chloroquine (or whatever, from memory) and the Jewish doctor trying a regimen of it, azythromycin (memory, too) and zinc sulfate. While it is hopeful that the claims are true, there's no clinical evidence for it and what there is is anecdotal with disputes and arguments among principals as to the full truth. Wait for actual clinical trials. There appears to be solid reasons for proceeding with those, it seems to me. However, I'd like to make a couple of points. One, should azythromycin be in this regimen? Just me, but probably not, especially for the (again anecdotal) supposed patients having tried it. Antibiotics are often prescribed ahead of and/or following various surgical procedures for safety. We're not talking about that here and the anectdotal subjects were not about to go under the knife nor did they exhibit signs of pneumonia, another good reason for antibiotics. And there's potential side effects, and there's the question as to if it's a good idea to include a or more than one antibiotic, is azythromycin the right one or one of the right ones to give? Much to weigh there. As to the zinc sulfate, zinc is an essential nutrient and I also take a zinc supplement for helping to control my cholesterol, but my understanding is that anything over twice the recommended allowance is toxic, so that should be taken with care.

Second, on the non-clinical trials at the U of Penn Med Center of a potential vaccine or vaccine prototype, my understanding is that there have yet to be any clinical trials and we should wait for those, which I would guess could be completed in about six months.

Anyways, we should be very careful of taking any recommendations by Doctors Trump, Hannity or Giuliani.

Hopefully both treatments will prove to be useful at least, and if so that will be very good news indeed for the President. So those of you who live in the US can now safely return to making your plans for exile in Canada, Australia or whatever safe harbor you have your eyes on. I'm thinking about Afghanistan.

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Construction is one industry that has been slow to close

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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I'd seen that report and others previously. Vaping and obesity were suggested as possible reasons.

ER nurse in the thick of it was interviewed on 60 minutes last Sunday and when asked for risk factors she said 60% were males and obesity seems to be the highest risk factor for death. Whilst I can't change my age or gender (although I heard that is not a hard and fast rule these days)I do qualify as "overweight" but I'm a bit shy of obese. I'm 60 years old, never smoked, 6,1' and 220lbs and can run a few miles so I'm hoping a lifetime of exercise and half of a lifetime of clean living will be on my side. Battled weight my whole life and for the most part am winning but the last 10 years it seems a lot of people have gotten heavier so I look god in comparison. Not sure where this obesity epidemic started (fast food, TV, video games,people don't walk anymore, sedentary jobs, all of the above?)but it is here and if it is a risk factor lots of folks are in trouble. Too early for silver linings but maybe people will enjoy getting outside after being locked up with each other for so long.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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Relatively low cases and mortalities in "hot" countries have been a topic of interest.

Nigeria is an interesting case in point. The first case arrived in Lagos about a month ago. There were dire predictions that mayhem would result in that supercity. But it didn't happen - or hasn't seemed to, by the numbers shown. Why not?

Possibilities - testing is spotty there, mortality reporting is done differently and poorly, or climate does play a roll.

Not a major transportation hub and probably not much testing. This will get into the southern hemisphere and 3rd world countries soon enough. Never been but I presume that Lagos has the density for this to take off. The beast is sometimes slow, but it is relentless.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We are never going to get outside again. The MTA, who runs the subways in NYC, has many employees out with Covid adding to the previous service cuts. Subways are sometimes erratic, and some folks are continuing to work and commute, probably by necessity. I won't go near the things myself, but if this continues (an isolated incident I hope) this wont end. The subways need to be shut down.

warspite1

Sadly London is the same..... Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

I think the last numbers were that tube traffic was down 95% now though. So if NHS workers need to get to work I think they'll be okay.

Construction is one industry that has been slow to close, and anecdotal evidence from my neighbourhood would also suggest this is a strong vector for continued spread of the virus. These guys don't wear protective gear for their job (which they should do), let alone for the virus. They're all sitting within a few feet having a smoke break, and they all have to get from the outskirts of London into the center on the tube.

I think it's slowing now, but not done yet.

Are you in London Warspite? If so where?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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Relatively low cases and mortalities in "hot" countries have been a topic of interest.

Nigeria is an interesting case in point. The first case arrived in Lagos about a month ago. There were dire predictions that mayhem would result in that supercity. But it didn't happen - or hasn't seemed to, by the numbers shown. Why not?

Possibilities - testing is spotty there, mortality reporting is done differently and poorly, or climate does play a roll.

Not a major transportation hub and probably not much testing. This will get into the southern hemisphere and 3rd world countries soon enough. Never been but I presume that Lagos has the density for this to take off. The beast is sometimes slow, but it is relentless.

It could be climate.

"I doubt we will see a big outbreak in Africa," said Hunter, a medical professor at the University of East Anglia as well at Tshwane University of Technology in South Africa.

"Droplet diseases don't seem to be as big an issue in Africa," he said, adding that SARS, a respiratory disease that is also a coronavirus, spread through 26 countries in 2003 but failed to gain a hold in Africa. Influenza epidemics are also less intense on the continent, he pointed out.
In addition, in Africa people generally don't live crammed together in such densely populated areas and they also spend a lot more time out-of-doors in Africa than they do in northern countries.

"I think that mitigates against such a severe outbreak," Hunter told DW.

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Man, John, we could be exact twins (except your a bit slimmer than I am, at the moment).