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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:21:31 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

There may be USN SSBN's on extended cruises who don't even know about COVID. Imagine that. Say they put to sea in early December...they would have zero cases and to learn about the catastrophe would be a distraction from their mission. Maybe the Navy notifies the Captain on VLF? Even with that there is some guy named "Sparks" that receives the message. Perhaps the Captain has a decryption device he uses himself?

That's a huge call to make, given the strong likelihood that sailors will likely return to find family and friends seriously affected by what's going on. Doesn't strike me as being good for morale in the long term (or re-enlistment rate, for that matter).

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 3721

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:25:59 PM

Canoerebel

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Early in this thread Chickenboy discussed mortality rates and offered some ideas in comparison to SARS and flus. Seasonal flu mortality figure typically used is 0.1% and, IIRC, Chickenboy posted that this might be above that, around 0.2% or neighborhood. At the time, 3% to 5% or higher was the widely discussed figure. That has since dropped to something around 1%. By the time this is over and retrospective analysis is complete Chickenboy's projections might be right on. Given what he does, no surprise. Chickenboy's first post, page one, given below. He amplified his thoughts further down that page and on page 3. I recall that a week or two into this, as more information became available, he posted to update his outlook and apologized to the extent earlier thoughts were off target. Bear in mind that this post was made 2/26/20, when the outbreak in South Korea was in its first days. Given Chickenboy's background, and how long he's been a member of this community, he's a tremendous in-house resource.

Chickenboy, Pg. 1 of this Thread:

I believe that this virus and disease will have a similar trajectory to that of MERS/SARS some 17 years ago. Coronaviruses are not Orthomyxoviruses (influenza) and act differently in transmissiblity and mutation rates, so again the MERS/SARS analog is probably more useful than H1N1 (1918; 2009) or other seasonal influenzas.

In the case of MERS/SARS, the virus circulated amongst mainland China for some time before diagnosed, a bit longer before there was recognition of it by central authorities and then longer yet before there was even a haphazard and incomplete response. International spread was a feature of the disease. Here's a very interesting and concise timeline from the CDC's website:

https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm

To whit: The disease ran rampant in China for a while. Then it spread internationally. Cases that were not laboratory-confirmed were later re-stated (see entry for July 2003) and halved. In between, the overreaction to cases was addressed (de-stigmatization of SARS) and travel advisories lifted after a few months.

A curious thing about the SARS virus was how it disappeared after a year or so. No isolates were recovered post-2004. Poof. Gone. NIH states that the disappearance was due to quarantine and isolation of affected cases and-of course-due to the research money poured into NIH on interventional strategies.

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/coronaviruses

COVID-19 does behave somewhat differently in the human host (replicates higher in the respiratory tract versus deeper in the lungs like SARS) and therefore may spread more readily. By nature of its replication patterns, it will also probably have a lower case fatality rate. That's exempting the exacerbatory effects of other co-pathogens (COVID-19 PLUS influenza, streptococcal pneumonia, TB, asthma, emphysema, other respiratory disease in the same patient) of course. I have not seen *any* efforts to parse the effects of COVID-19 from other co-pathogen effects in infected, but this is likely one of the rationale for making sure to get one's annual flu vaccine ASAP if you haven't already done so.

Viruses spread more readily when they make one sick, but aren't fatal. Paradoxically, the sicker people are with a particular virus, the easier it is to diagnose and ultimately contain. The Los Angeles Times had a nice article on this a couple weeks ago.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-02-18/sars-coronavirus-china-epidemic

What do I think will happen? Something more akin to SARS, albeit with a more significant global spread in the interim. I expect the peak of this will probably not be too far off and that, with the onset of warmer weather in most of the Northern Hemisphere it will abate. I would be surprised if we heard much about this 12 months from now, excepting in cooler climates (you listening, Oz land?) as they slip into their annual influenza cycle.

The economic and social impacts on our increasingly globally connected supply chains are a totally 'nuther question. I'm limiting my observations to the disease cycle and virus longevity in our public per se.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 2:27:51 PM >

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Post #: 3722

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:36:21 PM

Canoerebel

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I sent a copy of the previous post to Chickenboy via PM, so that he'd know I'd quoted him and length and could raise objections or add info/clarifications if needed. He replied with this addendum:

A couple of other observations re: COVID-19.

1. I think we've hit a peak in case count in this country-a couple days ago. Looks like I was two or three days off. Mea culpa.

2. IFRs and CFRs change throughout the disease cycle. SARS' CFR actually increased over time-which led to speculation about viral mutation that led to a more pathogenic organism. It wasn't that. It had more to do with the vagaries of case diagnostics and widespread testing. Then, and only then, did the specifics of the viral pathogenicity get nailed down. CFR for COVID-19 has gone the other way, as one would expect a less-lethal virus to do.

3. I've been thinking about the role of JANAC post-war in getting at the truth behind the submarine war against Japan. Throughout the war, sub skippers were claiming exorbitant tonnage sunk and feats of submariner strength. Lockwood, et. al. did their bit in crediting or not crediting captains when these issues were in doubt. But the real verity came from JANAC which almost universally significantly reduced the tonnages claimed by sub captains in the thick of things.

Much like I think we need a Marshall Plan/Manhattan Project level of commitment to revitalize our public health system (including vaccine and treatment research), I think we need JANAC accounting to-piece by piece-go through the death records and get a feel for what *really* happened globally. Like SARS, I think the devil is in the details and that ultimate deaths associated with COVID-19 will be parsed out and found to be a shade of what we think they would have otherwise been.

4. Good news on the influenza front: CDC just reduced their influenza threat to "Low". This is the fastest tapering of influenza epidemiologic curve in history-probably because of social distancing due to COVID-19. We will likely lose well less than average victims to influenza in this country this year. Presinzki effect writ large.

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Post #: 3723

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:37:17 PM

MakeeLearn

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Covid-19 is just the hors d'oeuvres.

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Post #: 3724

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:38:05 PM

Canoerebel

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I'm not sure what point three means (US subs in WWII, but undoubtedly that's on me).**

**Upon two re-readings, I got it. It was on me.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 4:06:36 PM >

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Post #: 3725

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:39:19 PM

Canoerebel

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In reply to my PM to Chickenboy this a.m., he shared with me many more details about his background. At my request, he said I can share this with you.

From Chickenboy to me via PM just a few minutes ago:

Hi Dan,

Thanks for the notes. You can use my earlier thoughts in the context you described. That's fine by me.

Some forumites might know that I'm a poultry veterinarian. They're probably thinking 'big whoop.' Who cares? I debated whether posting this might toot my own horn, so I didn't. But I'm OK burnishing my credentials a bit for you in a PM.

My original training was in veterinary medicine. Early on I decided that I was more interested in population medicine and epidemiology, so I stayed on after the rest of my class graduated to complete a parallel MPVM (Master in Preventive Veterinary Medicine) program. It focused on epidemiology, study design, statistics and population medicine. Outbreak investigation was always one of my favorite 'detective' sorts of pastimes within the training.

After finishing my DVM and MPVM at UC Davis (go Aggies!), I did a residency at the University of Pennsylvania. Here I focused on diagnostic pathology of avian species (mostly poultry), but also cut my teeth on 'program' disease management for things like Salmonella Enteritidis and, particularly, avian influenza. For AI, we had to use human influenza tests for rapid diagnosis and were reminded about the costs/benefits/values associated with population serosurveillance, antigen-capture assays, virus isolation and reliance on clinical signs for diagnostics. We had a few outbreaks of novel coronaviruses ('infectious bronchitis virus') that we learned to work with and live with too. And they went 'poof' also. I became a 'boarded' poultry veterinarian with the American College of Poultry Veterinarians in 1998.

After a sojourn to Pennsylvania and Delaware, I landed in Minnesota at the CVM (College of Veterinary Medicine) there. My focus was-again-diagnostic pathology of (mostly) poultry. Like UPENN, I also taught veterinary students and was involved in state disease control programs and training of field personnel. I helped develop and get funding for the only BSL-3 veterinary necropsy suite in the state and, of course, went through mandated training on how to work in a biocontainment facility with agents of significant zoonotic potential.

When "BIRD FLU!" global fears arose (circa 2005-2007), I threw my hat into the ring. I was involved in a number of projects abroad that focused on laboratory capacity building, laboratory technician training, disease intervention and diagnostic programmatic development. We spent time in South Vietnam talking with animal handlers about the importance of hand washing and PPE. I spent time in countries like the Republic of Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam on these topics.

Somewhere in there, I got an MBA from the University of Minnesota. I liked the introduction to accounting, operational management, negotiation and marketing management in particular. Focus on marketing and strategy. Got that in 2008.

So I find myself snickering a little bit. The human COVID-19 outbreak is right in my training and experiential 'wheelhouse'. For a poultry vet. Epidemiology. Study design. Diagnostic testing / laboratory capacity building. Vaccine trials. Emerging disease control and eradication. Lots of parallel and overlapping experiences. Life is funny that way sometimes.

One of my most proud memories is a trip to the BSL-4 high containment USDA facility on Plum Island. That visit reinforced my view that we veterinarians really are the tip of the spear in mitigating zoonotic disease and diseases that can seriously impact humanity. I was one of the last people to ever see clinical Rinderpest in animals. The USDA has since destroyed their stores of virus and this disease, like Smallpox in humans is now considered eradicated. Good riddance.

Anyways, I wax on. Sorry. Just thought I'd give you some context about my background that you may not be otherwise privy to.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3726

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:41:12 PM

Cap Mandrake

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I'm going out on a limb to predict that COVID will NOT be eradicated like SARS or MERS (apparently). It's much better adapted to human transmission. I suspect it will settle in for the long run like the other 4 human Coronaviruses.

229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

With growing herd immunity and almost certainly a vaccine and improved knowledge on treatment it will not be such a terrible threat. I believe of the other human Coronaviruses 3 are of bat origin and one appears to have come from ungulates. We may have had these things for centuries.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3727

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:42:47 PM

MakeeLearn

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Human Respiratory Coronaviruses Detected In Patients with Influenza-Like Illness in Arkansas, USA

2014 Mar 26.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5004774/

"In conclusion, OC43, NL63 strains and a new feline-like strain circulating in Arkansas may have been associated with the acute respiratory symptoms observed in patients negative for influenza virus. Whether the feline-like coronavirus strain represents a direct case of interspecies transmission or a new human strain is not clear at this point. The severity of symptoms associated with the CoV infection and/or other respiratory viruses may have encouraged patients to seek clinical diagnosis of influenza infection."

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Post #: 3728

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:44:34 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

The economic and social impacts on our increasingly globally connected supply chains are a totally 'nuther question.

Indeed, that is another thing to figure out. Clearly, the "just in time" supply chain is best suited for an economy running at peak efficiency. Kind of like a smooth race track with no bumps or rough surfaces. Once that just in time supply chain gets interrupted it's individual parts are worth much less than the whole. Example, GM is not trying to make ventilators. The design they are working with has 700 parts. GM does not actually make many or any of those parts. They are trying to put together a supply chain of 700, individual parts. Once that chain gets set up they can produce in great volume, but souring each of those 700 parts, some from small shops, has been the challenge

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 4/7/2020 2:45:30 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 3729

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:45:21 PM

Canoerebel

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Chickenboy excerpt: 4. Good news on the influenza front: CDC just reduced their influenza threat to "Low". This is the fastest tapering of influenza epidemiologic curve in history-probably because of social distancing due to COVID-19. We will likely lose well less than average victims to influenza in this country this year. Presinzki effect writ large.

I read this as saying that coronavirus countermeasures also had the unintended consequence of significantly lowering the annual flu mortality. I don't know if they'll end up offsetting (or not, possibly by a considerable number). The steps taken seemed proportional to the threat and our perceptions of it, at least in many places. I don't think we'd ever see credible sources say, "Hey, covid claimed 200k mortality worldwide but that was offset by a 200k lowering in flu mortality." Besides, it seems like the countermeasures are responsible for the unexpected dividend.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3730

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:48:04 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, Cap Mandrake, our in-house medical doctor expert. (There may be others, but he and Chickenboy are the two I know of.)

From a data analysis standpoint, Lokasenna is the one (I think he thinks I knew that all along, but if so I'd long since forgotten until he mentioned it again about a week ago).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I'm going out on a limb to predict that COVID will NOT be eradicated like SARS or MERS (apparently). It's much better adapted to human transmission. I suspect it will settle in for the long run like the other 4 human Coronaviruses.

229E (alpha coronavirus)
NL63 (alpha coronavirus)
OC43 (beta coronavirus)
HKU1 (beta coronavirus)

With growing herd immunity and almost certainly a vaccine and improved knowledge on treatment it will not be such a terrible threat. I believe of the other human Coronaviruses 3 are of bat origin and one appears to have come from ungulates. We may have had these things for centuries.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 2:49:04 PM >

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Post #: 3731

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:48:36 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy excerpt: 4. Good news on the influenza front: CDC just reduced their influenza threat to "Low". This is the fastest tapering of influenza epidemiologic curve in history-probably because of social distancing due to COVID-19. We will likely lose well less than average victims to influenza in this country this year. Presinzki effect writ large.

I read this as saying that coronavirus countermeasures also had the unintended consequence of significantly lowering the annual flu mortality. I don't know if they'll end up offsetting (or not, possibly by a considerable number). The steps taken seemed proportional to the threat and our perceptions of it, at least in many places. I don't think we'd ever see credible sources say, "Hey, covid claimed 200k mortality worldwide but that was offset by a 200k lowering in flu mortality." Besides, it seems like the countermeasures are responsible for the unexpected dividend.

Coronavirus Overshadows a Deadly Flu Season
The flu has killed 22,000 people so far this year and the season isn�t over.
March 20, 2020
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-20/coronavirus-pandemic-overshadows-a-deadly-flu-season

"With flu season still winding down, at least 144 children younger than 18 have died, a toll topped only by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic since health authorities began tracking flu data in 2004.

So far this season, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recorded 36 million flu cases in the U.S., with 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths. "

Deadly

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/7/2020 2:49:39 PM >

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Post #: 3732

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:53:12 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

"Hey, covid claimed 200k mortality worldwide but that was offset by a 200k lowering in flu mortality."

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 3733

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 2:58:18 PM

Canoerebel

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Who is that, Robin Gibb? I know that's not Barry and Maurice behind him.

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Post #: 3734

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:00:50 PM

Canoerebel

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I've been digesting multiple items of good news this morning and corresponding with various folks about this and related matters.

I'm not forgetting that some jurisdictions are fully embroiled in the fight on a major scale, mostly unable to celebrate the trend in good news.

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Post #: 3735

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:01:00 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Who is that, Robin Gibb? I know that's not Barry and Maurice behind him.

...

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/7/2020 3:02:56 PM >

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Post #: 3736

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:02:57 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

No, MacArthur needed to be removed. He was veering toward a messianic state. I think the Captain of Roosevelt felt compassion toward his crew and knew he would get sacked but did it anyway. It is noble in a way and understandable..but still wrong. You can't have officers disobeying orders because it is a difficult ask. He essentially declared to the world that an entire USN carrier battle group was out of action. Suppose the CCP decides THIS is the time to invade Taiwan based on that information (not likely of course)? Or the mullahs of Iran decide to stir up **** right now (more likely) and they miscalculate badly?

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Post #: 3737

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:04:11 PM

Canoerebel

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There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

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Post #: 3738

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:07:36 PM

MakeeLearn

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Stanford Professor: Data Indicates We�re Severely Overreacting To Coronavirus
March 30th, 2020
https://www.stress.org/stanford-professor-data-indicates-were-severely-overreacting-to-coronavirus

"In an analysis published Tuesday, Stanford�s John P.A. Ioannidis � co-director of the university�s Meta-Research Innovation Center and professor of medicine, biomedical data science, statistics, and epidemiology and population health � suggests that the response to the coronavirus pandemic may be �a fiasco in the making� because we are making seismic decisions based on �utterly unreliable� data. The data we do have, Ioannidis explains, indicates that we are likely severely overreacting.

�The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,� Ioannidis writes in an opinion piece published by STAT on Tuesday."

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Post #: 3739

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:12:44 PM

Canoerebel

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This conclusion by the Stanford professor in the link just provided by MakeLearn is significant:

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 3:13:01 PM >

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Post #: 3740

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:18:05 PM

Cap Mandrake

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CDC influenza surveillance webpage:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html

Note that "Influenza-like illness" (a clinical diagnosis only..fever, body ache, headache, etc) was on the decline in late February then started to go back up. In retrospect this is almost certainly COVID ramping up because if you look at the actual influenza laboratory isolates they peaked in February after a mini-peak in late December and by week 10 were markedly reduced.

I have not seen a positive influenza test in many weeks.

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Post #: 3741

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:21:57 PM

durnedwolf

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My email to family last Tuesday included this assessment: "A few days ago, a major university in the UK revised its mortality estimate for that country from 500,000 to 20,000. Similarly, the US projections are currently 100k to 200k mortality (as widely reported in the news). That�s down by 10x what had been projected a few weeks ago. I think US estimate will drop more � probably a lot more. In the end, I expect (as a layman, an optimist without any credentials whatsoever) that the US death toll will be something in line with a seasonal flu outbreak � perhaps 20k to 40k over the next three or four months. Most mortalities will be the elderly and those with exacerbating conditions (obesity) or health issues (diabetes, etc.)."

At the time, the news and information coming at us was almost uniformly negative. Things were bleak and seemed to be spiraling continually bleaker. But it was the first time there seemed to be enough reliable data to hazard a guess.

(My family has strictly adhered to countermeasure requirements in place in our jurisdictions.)

So if we had done nothing at all - no stay-at-home - I think the numbers would've been as predicted. What do you think?

_____________________________

DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

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Post #: 3742

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:27:31 PM

Cap Mandrake

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We are not "over-reacting". Nothing like we saw in Italy or Spain or Wuhan or even New York EVER happened in my lifetime. Crematoria running full blast 24 hrs a day in China? Contingency plans to bury victims in New York parks? Running out of ventilators????

This is like fast zombies vs slow zombies. Everyone knows the fast zombies are worse.

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Post #: 3743

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:32:25 PM

Canoerebel

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[To durnedwolf:] Countermeasures played a key role (and many were in place when the 100k-200k and other projections were made - but we didn't yet know just how effective they would prove to be). There were also other important contributors, including quality and availability of healthcare, and a growing understanding of what was going on, with concomitant better feel for real numbers (death rate, etc.)

Wouldn't death rate, whether it be the early-on 3% or the more recent 0.66% or the just-mentioned possibility of 0.1%, probably be about the same whatever countermeasures were in place? Countermeasures had a major impact on total mortality (fewer numbers infected therefore fewer dead). Death rate seemingly would be separate from that. Not totally, though, as countermeasures limited the spread to vulnerable populations in nursing homes, etc. too, thus likely contributing to a decrease in the death rate. I think.

The lower death rate also helped because the pandemic curve was in fact significantly flatter, thus in fact the medical community wasn't overwhelmed as much as earlier projected.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 3:46:35 PM >

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Post #: 3744

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:34:07 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Sometimes the "quants" are wrong. Half of them have Asperger's syndrome and can't understand human behavior of emotions. It is possible to be incandescently smart and utterly clueless at the same time.

It would be like putting up a shark net on a beach and then taking it down a week later because the attacks stopped.

Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe.

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Post #: 3745

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:41:19 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

MacArthur went behind Truman's back to the Press and got his Hero of Inchon ass fired...with good reason.

Not quite the same circumstances in any way, shape or form, is it?

No, MacArthur needed to be removed. He was veering toward a messianic state. I think the Captain of Roosevelt felt compassion toward his crew and knew he would get sacked but did it anyway. It is noble in a way and understandable..but still wrong. You can't have officers disobeying orders because it is a difficult ask. He essentially declared to the world that an entire USN carrier battle group was out of action. Suppose the CCP decides THIS is the time to invade Taiwan based on that information (not likely of course)? Or the mullahs of Iran decide to stir up **** right now (more likely) and they miscalculate badly?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There has to be a high level of security in the military. Must be.

I have been following this story quite closely, given that Crozier's tend to run in to misfortune at sea.

Modly's subsequent comments (to the crew, no less!) make me question the handling of this.

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Post #: 3746

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:43:32 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Sometimes the "quants" are wrong. Half of them have Asperger's syndrome and can't understand human behavior of emotions. It is possible to be incandescently smart and utterly clueless at the same time.

It would be like putting up a shark net on a beach and then taking it down a week later because the attacks stopped.

Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe.

So I'm going to call that out right now as inappropriate, and highlights your complete ignorance of developmental disorders.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 3747

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:48:09 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

...
Let's not forget the "quants" told Lehman Bros. that mortgage backed securities were safe.

That was a case of willful ignorance. The experts said the MBS were relatively safer than other derivative backed securities, given a set of assumptions that didn't hold up.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 3748

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:51:01 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

I'm not particularly interested in mortgage securities and the like, so I'm not asking for clarification. Just wanted to add that I'm not familiar with the terms used or the points being made.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/7/2020 3:52:16 PM >

(in reply to Zorch)

Post #: 3749

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/7/2020 3:58:10 PM

durnedwolf

Posts: 885
Joined: 5/23/2005
From: USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not particularly interested in mortgage securities and the like, so I'm not asking for clarification. Just wanted to add that I'm not familiar with the terms used or the points being made.