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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:44:33 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm not going to get political here. I will say that some of us do understand the difference between the Government of China and it's history of abuses and people who look to be from an East Asian country. There are a lot of people who don't and who equate the two things. They hear these comments and they act on them against real people.

We don't need to support the use of terminology that could be interpreted as biased against a nation and its people, in spite of its government's culpability in this crisis.

I agree. I would have chosen a different way to call them on their BS.

Here is the thing. Trump never calls me for advice.

I don't really care what it's called. SARS-2, Covid-19, SARS-Cov, Bat Soup virus, Pangolin Cioppino Virus, SARS-Wuhan, SARS Part Deux

The media is making too much out of it. I sent him a Tweet on his Twitter thingy but he didn't respond. While we are at it we should get rid of the term "German Measles" and "Norwegian Scabies", "Maarburg Virus", Ebola, West Nile Virus, MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) etc. etc.

We need a new name for the "Chernobyl disaster" and the "San Francisco Earthquake" as well. Not sure the people of Cleveland really appreciate having the Browns named after them either.

No. You're very intelligent and the last thing I want to seem is condescending, but you are simply neglecting the obvious that we don't have to use a place name for this virus, and if we do it could cause harm to others.

By listing these other diseases with specific place names I know that you know they're a totally different category that have no implication of pointing to a vulnerable population in our societies that may in fact be targeted by those who, for instance, link Chinese (or Asian) people with this current pandemic. I know you know this, but it seems, (and I'm just guessing here) that you just don't like the current trend toward more PC language, less inflammatory humour, etc.

You're also saying it needs a "new name." You've already listed many of the accepted popular and scientific names at the top, but to link it to place at this point is simply not necessary.

If you don't care what it's called then use the name with the least chance of causing anyone else difficulty, right?

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/8/2020 6:46:48 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 3841

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:44:26 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like probably every person here, I prefer accurate numbers. Before all is said and done, scientists (and whatever the heck it is that Lokasenna does again - analyst of statistics?) will probably zero in on good numbers.

I think, however, at the moment thee is some very useful merit in numbers if they are developed consistently even with some flaws.

So, if we counted mortality in Atlanta on March 12 and came up with 50 and again the same way each day thereafter and ended the long string with an additional 74 on April 7, that would be of some statistical usefulness, presumably a lot.

I think so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Looks like NYC is under-counting, by a wide margin, the number of dead from Corona-19. It's a big city and typically 20 people die at home every day. In the last few weeks, over 200 people a day are dying at home. Coincidence? I think not. Anyway, if you die at home the body is not tested for Corona-19. So the actual body count may be significantly higher than the reported number. Not sure of other locals policies but I suspect they are similar. At home deaths are not being counted so the 1% mortality rate (so-far) is probably artificially low

My understanding is that the 1% or 1.5% or whatever rate would not necessarily be the first thing to reconsider if there are more related or causal deaths not being counted because they are happening in homes, not in hospitals. The first thing to consider is actually the infection rate. If many expert epidemiologists are thinking actually tested numbers are low, perhaps in many places by 10x (as Neil Fergusen and others have claimed), then actually those extra deaths not being counted would make a lot more sense. Those cases have not been counted either, and the 80-95% of other mild or asymptomatic cases have almost certainly not been counted.

If the current positively tested NY cases (142,000) are even just 20% of the actual cases, then the other 80% mild or asymptomatic would bring totals to 710,000. A mortality rate of 1% for 710,000 would be 7,100, which is above the current total deaths at 5,489. If it really is as high as 10x undetected cases, then the case fatality rate might be as low as 0.5%.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3842

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 8:29:45 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

I see nor think anything disparaging about that pic. It's my heritage, my family.

For those that do not know, in this scene, Mammy has just told Scarlett a TRUTH that Scarlett did not want to hear. And Mammy is "UH-HA I told you!"

If the moderator wants to remove it.... he will.

warspite1

Why would anyone object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?

We're all grown ups we all know (or should know) our histories. It is what it is. Different, less enlightened times sadly. But learning about, and remembering, the bad is how we (hopefully) learn from our mistakes. We shouldn't brush things under the carpet as though we're all a bunch of millenials who can't handle real life.

The saddest thing in the 21st century is that the picture should even warrant further comment.

A small divergence from Covid focus. This is long but I felt it had to be.

A reaction to this image and its origin probably depends a lot on your background and relationship to the history being depicted. Although for many reasons someone from any background could take issue with it's use out of context and without explicit explanation.

I am related through my father's mother's side of the family to the first enslaved black man in colonial America, John Punch. He is also an ancestor to Barak Obama.

The story of John Punch occupies an important place in the history of slavery in North America. When the English imported Punch to the Virginia colony in the mid-seventeenth century, he became an indentured servant. The primary source of labor in the Virginia colony for the better part of the seventeenth century was servitude. The colony imported workers from Europe to work in tobacco fields. They had little interest in utilizing African slaves. African imports were comparatively expensive next to the cheap imports they could scoop off the streets or out of the jails of London. At the time John Punch arrived in the English colony, he was one of a relatively small population of Africans.

But something happened to John Punch in 1640 that signaled a transition in the way colonial officials thought about race and slavery. In 1640, Punch ran away from his Virginia employer with two white servants, one a Scot and the other a Dutchman. They escaped to Maryland where they were apprehended and returned home for punishment. All three runaways were whipped. The two white servants were punished with extended terms of service, but Punch received a far harsher sentence: he was made a servant �for the term of his natural life.� It was the closest thing to a slave the colony had yet known. Virginians would not fully embrace a system of slave labor for at least another four decades, but the willingness of colonial officials to distinguish a lifetime of servitude for Punch and not for his European counterparts suggests the beginnings of racial thinking that would ultimately equate slavery with people of African descent.

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/147577

I do not identify as an African-American, but I do have known African descent through John Punch. I spent some time in the South studying the history of slavery, oral history from the records of UNC Chapel Hill, as well as a specific focus on desegregation. I then worked for four years at a majority African American college in Raleigh, NC, St Augustine's College, which was begun in 1867 as an institution to teach teachers for the African American community after the Civil War.

This is from an Atlantic article going through the entire sequence from publication of the book to releasing the film four years later. There is a lot more there. This is one of the relevant quotes about the character Mammy, played by Hattie McDaniel.

Hattie McDaniel's Mammy was especially loathsome in her love for a family, the O'Haras, "that has helped to keep her people enchained for centuries." The reviewer for the Chicago Defender called GWTW a "weapon of terror against black America."

Black activists responded with actions as well as words. As Gone With the Wind opened in American cities throughout the early 1940s, organized blacks made signs and walked picket lines in front of box offices. "YOU'D BE SWEET TOO UNDER A WHIP!" read one placard outside a Washington theater. "Gone With the Wind glorifies slavery" and "Negroes were never docile slaves," demonstrators shouted in Chicago.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1999/12/gone-with-the-wind-and-hollywoods-racial-politics/377919/

Here is quote from an Esquire article that does well to highlight the racism inherent in the film.

This is the underlying reality of the racism in Gone with the Wind: its abstractness. The War is an external force outside of the personal dramas of the players. Slavery, hatred, prejudice � all may well exist but not in any personal way. The crimes of Gone with the Wind all spring from that original sin: the failure to recognize that there's a problem at all. That willful blindness remains the primary source of the stereotypes that still afflict the representation of race on American screens. Unfortunately, Gone with the Wind isn't gone at all. It's still very much with us.

https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a30109/gone-with-the-wind-racism/

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/8/2020 8:55:31 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 3843

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 10:46:29 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3844

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 10:51:13 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

I saw your post and thought it was a good comment. This wasn't written in response to you, so no need for disagreement, acquiescence or understanding on your part really.

This was a reference to Warspite's comment about the response; "Who would object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?"

If we're going to ask those questions I feel it's appropriate that they should be answered.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/8/2020 11:08:01 AM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3845

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 10:54:26 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Spain is always among the first European countries to show up on the Worldometers site each day. Both new cases and deaths dropped today, but deaths (510) remain above the U. Washington projection (though within the shaded range). Per yesterday's thoughts about insufficient track record in these graphs for the European countries, I won't rely on this source for additional posts until it's reliability is established.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2020 10:57:54 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3846

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:00:58 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

While I think what you say is correct in that the final death rate will be lower, I suspect the count will be higher by quite a margin, when all is properly accounted for.

On GWTW, it feeds the factually untrue "Lost Cause" narrative surrounding the Civil War. Curious to see what you have written on it, CR.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3847

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:04:17 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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If you re-read the post you quoted, you'll see that I wrote "it's likely they'll find many more cases." Yes, actual mortality number should be higher (1% or 0.5% or whatever x the "many more cases"). Accuracy may be a bit uncertain but everybody will want the best numbers possible, especially those who need them to understand and analyze what happened.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2020 11:10:29 AM >

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 3848

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:15:50 AM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

I saw your post and thought it was a good comment. This wasn't written in response to you, so no need for disagreement, acquiescence or understanding on your part really.

This was a reference to Warspite's comment about the response; "Who would object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?"

If we're going to ask those questions I feel it's appropriate that they should be answered.

warspite1

I have to say that question was more directed to people on this thread.

Sadly of course, there will always be those who refuse to move on, who are keen to keep raking up the wrongs of the past. What does one do? Ban GWTW from ever being shown again? Just think about it. You ban GWTW then you ban literally thousands of films because someone, somewhere is going to object to portrayals of people of colour, people of a different sexual orientation, wars fought with those we now fear insulting - and so the list goes on. So GWTW in some cases may distort history (hardly surprising given it was made in 1939 in a very different America) but what, it can only be re-made with Mammy (and all slaves) now portrayed as some sort of heroic resistance fighters?? So we swap one set of distortion for another to suit the time the film is made.... please*.

But this is a hugely emotive, sad and frustrating subject, so I'll comment no more.

* And for the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting these are your thoughts obvert.

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3849

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:19:00 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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How's your PM doing, UK folks?

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 3850

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:23:04 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

On the good news front, just noticed that mortality in UK yesterday was substantially less than the U. Washington site projected (786 rather than 1233). That's worth watching today. Really hoping U. Washington screwed the pooch when forecasting the situation there.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3851

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:24:16 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If you re-read the post you quoted, you'll see that I wrote "it's likely they'll find many more cases." Yes, actual mortality number should be higher (1% or 0.5% or whatever x the "many more cases"). Accuracy may be a bit uncertain but everybody will want the best numbers possible, especially those who need them to understand and analyze what happened.

Given the high asymptomatic/mild symptoms overall, I think that will be a challenge.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

I saw your post and thought it was a good comment. This wasn't written in response to you, so no need for disagreement, acquiescence or understanding on your part really.

This was a reference to Warspite's comment about the response; "Who would object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?"

If we're going to ask those questions I feel it's appropriate that they should be answered.

warspite1

I have to say that question was more directed to people on this thread.

Sadly of course, there will always be those who refuse to move on, who are keen to keep raking up the wrongs of the past. What does one do? Ban GWTW from ever being shown again? Just think about it. You ban GWTW then you ban literally thousands of films because someone, somewhere is going to object to portrayals of people of colour, people of a different sexual orientation, wars fought with those we now fear insulting - and so the list goes on. So GWTW in some cases may distort history (hardly surprising given it was made in 1939 in a very different America) but what, it can only be re-made with Mammy (and all slaves) now portrayed as some sort of heroic resistance fighters?? So we swap one set of distortion for another to suit the time the film is made.... please*.

But this is a hugely emotive, sad and frustrating subject, so I'll comment no more.

* And for the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting these are your thoughts obvert.

There's a remarkably easy solution that doesn't involve banning anything.

Include text in the opening credits of the film that explains the time, context in which the film was made and the distortions it makes to reality. Then you educate as well as entertain :)

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3852

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:28:13 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Hey, U. Washington revised it's US projections again overnight!

This time it dropped the mortality to 60k from 81k. That's a 25% drop. In the past three days, the projection has dropped by 33%.

This is what we discussed in here yesterday - that consistent reports beneath projections might result in further downward revisions.

This is a major sea change.

Attachment (1)

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 3853

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:29:35 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Peak in deaths also dropped by four days.

There is a big movement underway - a major trend. What the nation is doing, and the way the experts project, are combining to bring this into a sharper focus that is much more encouraging. Just one week ago, the nation was riveted on 100k to 200k.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2020 11:39:21 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3854

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:30:43 AM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If you re-read the post you quoted, you'll see that I wrote "it's likely they'll find many more cases." Yes, actual mortality number should be higher (1% or 0.5% or whatever x the "many more cases"). Accuracy may be a bit uncertain but everybody will want the best numbers possible, especially those who need them to understand and analyze what happened.

Given the high asymptomatic/mild symptoms overall, I think that will be a challenge.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

I saw your post and thought it was a good comment. This wasn't written in response to you, so no need for disagreement, acquiescence or understanding on your part really.

This was a reference to Warspite's comment about the response; "Who would object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?"

If we're going to ask those questions I feel it's appropriate that they should be answered.

warspite1

I have to say that question was more directed to people on this thread.

Sadly of course, there will always be those who refuse to move on, who are keen to keep raking up the wrongs of the past. What does one do? Ban GWTW from ever being shown again? Just think about it. You ban GWTW then you ban literally thousands of films because someone, somewhere is going to object to portrayals of people of colour, people of a different sexual orientation, wars fought with those we now fear insulting - and so the list goes on. So GWTW in some cases may distort history (hardly surprising given it was made in 1939 in a very different America) but what, it can only be re-made with Mammy (and all slaves) now portrayed as some sort of heroic resistance fighters?? So we swap one set of distortion for another to suit the time the film is made.... please*.

But this is a hugely emotive, sad and frustrating subject, so I'll comment no more.

* And for the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting these are your thoughts obvert.

There's a remarkably easy solution that doesn't involve banning anything.

Include text in the opening credits of the film that explains the time, context in which the film was made and the distortions it makes to reality. Then you educate as well as entertain :)

warspite1

Except its anything but easy and you should know that. Take GWTW as an example. What are you going to write in your pre-screening explanation? Do you really think that everyone is going to agree on what has been distorted? Imagine the howls from the far right and the far left on what is the real truth? Good luck with that, well meaning, but rather simplistic notion!

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 3855

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:37:07 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Armed with multiple inputs from around the globe, using resources pointed to by this community for raw data and projections, and lots of arm-chair analysis (and some from experts too), this thread has been more accurate and faster, repeatedly and notably, than just about anything in media. We are a go-to source for solid information.

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 3856

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:38:24 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If you re-read the post you quoted, you'll see that I wrote "it's likely they'll find many more cases." Yes, actual mortality number should be higher (1% or 0.5% or whatever x the "many more cases"). Accuracy may be a bit uncertain but everybody will want the best numbers possible, especially those who need them to understand and analyze what happened.

Given the high asymptomatic/mild symptoms overall, I think that will be a challenge.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When this is over, the scientists and mathematicians and statisticians will re-analyze the data in an effort to incorporate those overlooked, as was done in past outbreaks of things. It's likely they'll find many more cases. I think the final death rate may be lower than the current 1% widely used today. There was, in fact, a post in here a four or five days back re-calculating to a 0.66% rate.

As for GWTW, I disagree with a fair bit of that and don't wish for silence to suggest acquiesence. I understand it's good points and bad, know where people are coming from, and have written on the topic many times (including, by coincidence, two days ago and again yesterday morning).

I saw your post and thought it was a good comment. This wasn't written in response to you, so no need for disagreement, acquiescence or understanding on your part really.

This was a reference to Warspite's comment about the response; "Who would object to a picture of the wonderful Mammy?"

If we're going to ask those questions I feel it's appropriate that they should be answered.

warspite1

I have to say that question was more directed to people on this thread.

Sadly of course, there will always be those who refuse to move on, who are keen to keep raking up the wrongs of the past. What does one do? Ban GWTW from ever being shown again? Just think about it. You ban GWTW then you ban literally thousands of films because someone, somewhere is going to object to portrayals of people of colour, people of a different sexual orientation, wars fought with those we now fear insulting - and so the list goes on. So GWTW in some cases may distort history (hardly surprising given it was made in 1939 in a very different America) but what, it can only be re-made with Mammy (and all slaves) now portrayed as some sort of heroic resistance fighters?? So we swap one set of distortion for another to suit the time the film is made.... please*.

But this is a hugely emotive, sad and frustrating subject, so I'll comment no more.

* And for the avoidance of doubt, I am not suggesting these are your thoughts obvert.

There's a remarkably easy solution that doesn't involve banning anything.

Include text in the opening credits of the film that explains the time, context in which the film was made and the distortions it makes to reality. Then you educate as well as entertain :)

warspite1

Except its anything but easy and you should know that. Take GWTW as an example. What are you going to write in your pre-screening explanation? Do you really think that everyone is going to agree on what has been distorted? Imagine the howls from the far right and the far left on what is the real truth? Good luck with that, well meaning, but rather simplistic notion!

Wither there is agreement or not is immaterial: demonstrated fact is fact.

I'll take the bait, however:

"This film portrays an idealized notion of plantation life and slavery in Southern America during the Civil War. The conditions for large numbers of Americans in slavery was harsh and brutal."

Hard to dispute any of that, is it?

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 3857

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:41:00 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Armed with multiple inputs from around the globe, using resources pointed to by this community for raw data and projections, and lots of arm-chair analysis (and some from experts too), this thread has been more accurate and faster, repeatedly and notably, than just about anything in media. We are a go-to source for solid information.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's not really. I'll paraphrase from a much wiser and more respected forumite (you know who you are!) that:

One must not just accept any report without understanding the assumptions and quality of what goes in to it.

A great deal of the info that's went in to populating the spreadsheets/web sites posted here are accepted at face value.

Having a good index finger to click on web sites does not make one knowledgeable or an analyst per se.

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Post #: 3858

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:44:09 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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It takes time for major news organizations to prepare quality articles. Thus far, I can't find any that have yet jumped on the revised projections, such as ABC News here. They will. When the projections previously changed early Monday morning, the news media followed within 12 hours.

We are more nimble and can react faster.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2020 11:46:40 AM >

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Post #: 3859

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:45:40 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Even as deaths mount, officials see signs pandemic�s toll may not match worst fears
54 mins ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/even-as-deaths-mount-officials-see-signs-pandemics-toll-may-not-match-worst-fears/ar-BB12i5gC?li=BBnb7Kz

"U.S. authorities on Tuesday reported 30,700 more people infected with the novel coronavirus and over 1,800 more deaths � the highest daily death toll so far.

But amid the grim data, some officials said they saw grounds for hope that the pandemic�s devastation would at least not be as bad as the direst projections.

New York, the state hit hardest by the virus, reported its highest daily death toll: 731. But Democratic Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said the number of new patients admitted to hospitals appeared to be trending downward. "

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Post #: 3860

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:46:03 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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The proof is in the pudding. We've done a darned good armed-chair job (IE, we're mostly interested laymen). The proof is in the pudding.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Armed with multiple inputs from around the globe, using resources pointed to by this community for raw data and projections, and lots of arm-chair analysis (and some from experts too), this thread has been more accurate and faster, repeatedly and notably, than just about anything in media. We are a go-to source for solid information.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's not really. I'll paraphrase from a much wiser and more respected forumite (you know who you are!) that:

One must not just accept any report without understanding the assumptions and quality of what goes in to it.

A great deal of the info that's went in to populating the spreadsheets/web sites posted here are accepted at face value.

Having a good index finger to click on web sites does not make one knowledgeable or an analyst per se.

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 3861

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:51:15 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Lots of encouraging revisions to state projections too. New York total mortality dropped considerably and the peak estimated to be tomorrow.

Similar good things for my state and for others too.

The link to the source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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Post #: 3862

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:53:21 AM

warspite1

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Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Wither there is agreement or not is immaterial: demonstrated fact is fact.

I'll take the bait, however:

"This film portrays an idealized notion of plantation life and slavery in Southern America during the Civil War. The conditions for large numbers of Americans in slavery was harsh and brutal."

Hard to dispute any of that, is it?

warspite1

I'm afraid you didn't quite understand the point. And I'm not going to further this on a coronavirus thread as our debates tend to be rather lengthy.

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Post #: 3863

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:58:17 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

CBS

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Post #: 3864

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 11:58:17 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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Coronavirus origin: Few leads, many theories in hunt for source

Coronavirus most likely to have jumped to humans from intermediary host, but some say lab accident cannot be ruled out.
an hour ago

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-spreads-leads-theories-origin-200407073509327.html

"But as the virus spread globally, the role of public-health laboratories in Wuhan came under increasing scrutiny.

In two labs in Wuhan, long-running experiments with bat viruses helped scientists quickly identify the coronavirus as most likely to have come from the nocturnal mammal, but those same labs have also fuelled biosafety concerns.

The practice of collecting viruses from bats first burst into public view in the early weeks of the outbreak when Shi Zhengli, a noted scientist with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, refuted a swirl of online accusations both at home and abroad that the coronavirus may have leaked from her institute, where a lab certified as BSL-4, the highest level for handling dangerous pathogens, opened three years ago."

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While stasioned at Ft. Hood I was with a unit that in time of war would have the ability to use chemical agents. One day we were shown pictures of a researcher than had accidentally carried Blister Agent type home to his wife and child. It was on his clothes They all died. It was never in the news,

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Post #: 3865

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 12:02:21 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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CNN

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Post #: 3866

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 12:03:30 PM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: Sources
April 8, 2020, 3:01 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

" As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China�s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document�s contents.

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI�s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home."

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Post #: 3867

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 12:04:31 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Fox (my first visit to this site)

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Post #: 3868

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 12:09:57 PM

MakeeLearn

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I dont watch tv. Is CNN Coronavirus News Network

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Post #: 3869

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 12:12:36 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

I don't watch TV either.**

**We have a television and watch movies on DVD. We've never had cable or satellite service but in the old days used an antenna to pick up two stations in Chattanooga. When the industry converted from analog to digital (around 2010?), we opted out.

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Post #: 3870