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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 5:54:05 PM   
obvert


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Everyone continues to ask what Germany is doing well to keep deaths down.

While many of the overarching strategies have been discussed, like extensive testing, case tracking and isolation early, early-on lower age case rates, keeping the vulnerable as safe as possible, and their high numbers of ICU beds (although those will likely come more into play at a later stage).

This is from an article about the need in the UK for more oversight of patients who call in with COVID symptoms but are not severe yet, or enough, to get a ride to A&E.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/fears-britons-self-isolating-covid-19-seek-help-too-late

Covid-19 is said to be mild to moderate in 80% of people, but can cause viral pneumonia. In the most serious cases, the immune system fighting the virus overreacts. If that happens, what is known as a cytokine storm attacks their organs. The individual will need ventilation in hospital to take over their breathing and possibly mechanical support for their heart, liver or kidneys.

People with symptoms at home will not get medical help unless they ask for it, unlike in some other countries, which have testing for people with symptoms and monitoring for them while at home.

Health authorities in the southern German city of Heidelberg have introduced a “corona taxi” service, which allows medical personnel to visit patients with the virus at home and assess their progress. This was introduced after virologists and other doctors recognised that it often comes in two waves and that typically on the eighth day, patients’ health can take a turn for the worse.

Patients with confirmed infections or suspected to have coronavirus are being called on a regular basis by student doctors manning phone lines, and based on their accounts, a taxi crew can then arrange to visit them.

Four of the taxis – small buses usually used for school runs – are constantly travelling around the city visiting patients.

“These daily phone calls and house visits would totally overwhelm the doctors here,” said Uta Merle, a medical director for gastroenterology and infections at Heidelberg University hospital, which is why medical students are being drafted in. Eight hundred have so far volunteered.

Hans-Georg Kräusslich, the head of virology at the hospital, told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung the visits are necessary because “often patients don’t have the courage to ring up the clinic and don’t actually take their worsening state seriously”.


Maybe other countries are doing this, but it's not being done here.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/8/2020 7:22:44 PM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 3961
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 5:54:16 PM   
Canoerebel


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Yes, I did. My posts today (and yesterday) have referenced the confidence limits. Not for every chart posted because the assumption is that readers are reading, have seen reference to the confidence limits, and understand that we typically (for brevity purposes) use the projection number incorporated therein.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Worldometers reported UK morality as 938 for today's list (which probably is the recapitulation for yesterday, since the day isn't over) and 786 yesterday (presumably for the day before).



Good for Worldometers.

quote:

The Univ. of Washington website projects 66k mortality for the UK. I sure hope that's wildly inaccurate (as previously posted this a.m.). On a hopeful note, yesterday's actual mortality came in at 786, about 550 less than projected. Hopefully that trend will continue, prompting revisions that prove much more accurate.


So you've still not told me if the 550 less than projected was within the confidence limits?


(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 3962
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 5:56:01 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Cytokine Storm: The Sudden Crash in Patients with COVID-19
Apr 8, 2020


https://www.physiciansweekly.com/cytokine-storm-the-sudden-crash-in-patients-with-covid-19/


"All over the world, seemingly mild cases of COVID-19 rapidly morph into severe cases that involve the lower lungs. This may be attributed to “the cytokine storm.” There are many variations on this phenomenon, and they go by many names: systemic inflammatory response syndrome, cytokine release syndrome, macrophage activation syndrome, hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis."


"It’s not the most widely-understood phenomenon, but it occurs in several types of infections and autoimmune conditions. It appears to be particularly relevant in outbreaks of new flu variants. Cytokine storm is now seen as a likely major cause of mortality in the 1918-20 “Spanish flu”–which killed more than 50 million people worldwide and the H1N1 “swine flu” and H5N1 “bird flu” of recent years—and now COVID-19. "

_____________________________








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Post #: 3963
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 5:56:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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John, I actually haven't hear about looting hordes from Atlanta. Thanks for giving me something to worry about.

Everything here is as calm and peaceable as I can imagine. Sometimes we may overlook the fact that it's a very different scenario for the folks at our hospital or in places like NYC. I hope most of us keep that in mind.


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Hey Dan, speaking of looting have those “looting hordes from Atlanta” we are hearing about got up your way yet?


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Post #: 3964
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:07:18 PM   
Canoerebel


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An confidence interval example from Monday, for Mind_Messing.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The U. Washington site (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) projected 1,967 deaths for the US today. Based upon the current tally of 900, and if the pattern for updating totals holds, it's unlikely that mortality will approach the projected amount. It might be significantly less.

It's worth keeping an eye on because better-than-expected results might well see future downward adjustment.





(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3965
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:11:11 PM   
MakeeLearn


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I did not see this pic posted directly.

April 6, 2020 at 7:14 pm Updated April 7, 2020 at 12:34 pm
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/new-uw-analysis-lowers-coronavirus-death-projections-and-suggests-hospitalizations-may-have-already-peaked-in-washington/





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/8/2020 6:14:00 PM >


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Post #: 3966
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:19:50 PM   
Mundy


Posts: 2869
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I seriously miss baseball right now...

_____________________________


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Post #: 3967
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:22:20 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mundy

I seriously miss baseball right now...


Yesterday's trial balloon should be shot down post haste.

(in reply to Mundy)
Post #: 3968
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:22:43 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Cytokine Storm: The Sudden Crash in Patients with COVID-19
Apr 8, 2020


https://www.physiciansweekly.com/cytokine-storm-the-sudden-crash-in-patients-with-covid-19/


"All over the world, seemingly mild cases of COVID-19 rapidly morph into severe cases that involve the lower lungs. This may be attributed to “the cytokine storm.” There are many variations on this phenomenon, and they go by many names: systemic inflammatory response syndrome, cytokine release syndrome, macrophage activation syndrome, hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis."


"It’s not the most widely-understood phenomenon, but it occurs in several types of infections and autoimmune conditions. It appears to be particularly relevant in outbreaks of new flu variants. Cytokine storm is now seen as a likely major cause of mortality in the 1918-20 “Spanish flu”–which killed more than 50 million people worldwide and the H1N1 “swine flu” and H5N1 “bird flu” of recent years—and now COVID-19. "


I posted these earlier:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome

quote:

A cytokine storm can kill you. It occurs when a very severe viral infection (such as Swine Flu H1N1 or Bird Flu H5N1 - many people are now very worried about it based on the Coronavirus) takes control of your immune system and causes immune confusion in your body. Basically your body starts to work on overdrive and becomes really confused. This reaction called "Cytokine Storm" over activates your body to where normal feedback loops designed to calm things down fail to operate.

Your immune system becomes a runaway freight train where high fever, massive inflammation, extreme fatigue, vomiting and diarrhea dominate every minute of your existence. Did you know that MOST of the 25 million people that died in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic died from a cytokine storm? Wow... that's good information to know. You don’t want to be caught in a cytokine storm.
.
.

Cytokine Storm and Herbs: Life or Death Information!

10/21/2015

42 Comments
Picture
UPDATED ARTICLE AS OF MARCH 2020!
Many people hear the word "Cytokine Storm" and think it is a weather prediction.

However, this storm is one that can kill you. It is a "body weather prediction".

A cytokine storm can kill you. It occurs when a very severe viral infection (such as Swine Flu H1N1 or Bird Flu H5N1 - many people are now very worried about it based on the Coronavirus) takes control of your immune system and causes immune confusion in your body. Basically your body starts to work on overdrive and becomes really confused. This reaction called "Cytokine Storm" over activates your body to where normal feedback loops designed to calm things down fail to operate. (See the Medical Dictionary definition here.)

Your immune system becomes a runaway freight train where high fever, massive inflammation, extreme fatigue, vomiting and diarrhea dominate every minute of your existence. Did you know that MOST of the 25 million people that died in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic died from a cytokine storm?
So... How do I recognize a Cytokine Storm?
.
.
.
Once again, if you or anyone in your care is just starting to get sick, the risk of cytokine storm isn't substantiated yet.

However, if these signs show up and the illness keeps escalating, then be aware that a Cytokine Storm could be upon you (Please see THIS ARTICLE for further information on cytokine storm):
-High Fever for extended period of time (102*+ for 2 full days without breaking)
-Swelling and redness on the body
-EXTREME fatigue
-Nausea and diarrhea consistent for 2 full days
-Rapid resting heart rate (over 100 beats per minute)


https://www.naturalmedicinemamas.com/nmm-blog/cytokine-storm-and-herbs-life-or-death-information

The second link has a list of herbs/spices to take to fight the storm as well as some that help make the storm worse.

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 3969
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:27:24 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Sports..

Medieval Knights Team USA v England 16v16 at Scone Palace, Scotland for IMCF 2018 World Championship

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3QQwohEY48

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/8/2020 6:28:11 PM >


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Post #: 3970
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:27:43 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An confidence interval example from Monday, for Mind_Messing.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The U. Washington site (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections) projected 1,967 deaths for the US today. Based upon the current tally of 900, and if the pattern for updating totals holds, it's unlikely that mortality will approach the projected amount. It might be significantly less.

It's worth keeping an eye on because better-than-expected results might well see future downward adjustment.





Great, so was the 550 difference between the UK projection and the recorded figure within or outwith the confidence limits?

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 4/8/2020 6:28:21 PM >

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Post #: 3971
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:28:45 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Mysterious heart damage, not just lung troubles, befalling COVID-19 patients
Apr 6 2020


https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200406/Mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-COVID-19-patients.aspx

"In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems — and dying of cardiac arrest.

As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress."


"Patients who had heart disease before their coronavirus infections were much more likely to show heart damage afterward. But some patients with no previous heart disease also showed signs of cardiac damage. In fact, patients with no preexisting heart conditions who incurred heart damage during their infection were more likely to die than patients with previous heart disease but no COVID-19-induced cardiac damage."


If they are talking about myocarditis that is bad. If they are talking about ischemic heart disease that could be the illness simply uncovering previously undetected coronary disease

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Post #: 3972
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:34:47 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just found a nugget I thought would be too elusive for retrieval. A memory from more than 15 years ago, but I found it in the dusty archives of the internet. It flies contrary to expectations, and relates to some of our previous discussions, so here it is.

The Drudge Report (for those of you unfamiliar) posts an accumulation of links to news stories from various sources. For much of its existence it was widely perceived as right wing. But UCLA and other schools did a study (in 2003, I just learned) that rated it as centrist, of all things. Other sources (New York Times) received different ratings.

Here's the link to the study: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/romain.wacziarg/mediapapers/GrosecloseMilyo.pdf

For clarity: I am not a fan of The Drudge Report.


I like this! Assertion backed by evidence, this is new! A bit dated though; here's something a bit more recent.

https://m.5harad.com/papers/mediabias.pdf

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Post #: 3973
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:38:08 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just found a nugget I thought would be too elusive for retrieval. A memory from more than 15 years ago, but I found it in the dusty archives of the internet. It flies contrary to expectations, and relates to some of our previous discussions, so here it is.

The Drudge Report (for those of you unfamiliar) posts an accumulation of links to news stories from various sources. For much of its existence it was widely perceived as right wing. But UCLA and other schools did a study (in 2003, I just learned) that rated it as centrist, of all things. Other sources (New York Times) received different ratings.

Here's the link to the study: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/romain.wacziarg/mediapapers/GrosecloseMilyo.pdf

For clarity: I am not a fan of The Drudge Report.



https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9295/c47b8d266604b6db58750d8dd0650bdad89d.pdf?_ga=2.127874191.363621940.1586371010-1644655047.1586371010

This might be an interesting article for you CR (and others), given the previously stated views on the media.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3974
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:39:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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What assertion? I said I was struck by a study many years ago that alleged The Drudge Report was Centrist. I didn't agree or disagree with it. Just found it odd.


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Post #: 3975
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:39:22 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just found a nugget I thought would be too elusive for retrieval. A memory from more than 15 years ago, but I found it in the dusty archives of the internet. It flies contrary to expectations, and relates to some of our previous discussions, so here it is.

The Drudge Report (for those of you unfamiliar) posts an accumulation of links to news stories from various sources. For much of its existence it was widely perceived as right wing. But UCLA and other schools did a study (in 2003, I just learned) that rated it as centrist, of all things. Other sources (New York Times) received different ratings.

Here's the link to the study: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/romain.wacziarg/mediapapers/GrosecloseMilyo.pdf

For clarity: I am not a fan of The Drudge Report.






That paper is almost old enough to vote. I don't think it should be used in a current context.

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Post #: 3976
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:40:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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lol

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Post #: 3977
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 6:44:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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It wasn't used in current context. It was mentioned as an counter-intuitive finding from 17 years ago. It fit the context in which it was offered.

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Post #: 3978
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:01:31 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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This for MM from 11:30 this morning.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Per Worldometers, UK mortality 938, up about 150 from yesterday.

But like yesterday, that number comes in under the University of Washington projection and again by about 500.

It is within the range of 550 to 3,276.




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Post #: 3979
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:06:28 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This for MM from 11:30 this morning.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Per Worldometers, UK mortality 938, up about 150 from yesterday.

But like yesterday, that number comes in under the University of Washington projection and again by about 500.

It is within the range of 550 to 3,276.






Thank you!

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Post #: 3980
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:31:38 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Man doesn't want to give up his "liberty machine" to the government because he needs to defend against the Looting Hordes from Atlanta: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/former-gop-rep-campaigning-with-gun-giveaway-to-fend-off-looting-hordes-from-atlanta

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 4/8/2020 7:34:56 PM >


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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 3981
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:34:28 PM   
Canoerebel


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Numbers just posted for France at Worldometers. A huge drop in New Cases and a substantial one in Mortality. Almost certainly this report and yesterday's (and possibly others) are skewed by timing issues. I doubt there were 11k new cases yesterday and 3.8k today.

Neverthless it's good news.

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Post #: 3982
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:36:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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John, I clicked on that site and read. I'm not familiar with Broun but that report is far too wonky to pay attention to.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Man doesn't want to give up his "liberty machine" to the government because he needs to defend against the Looting Hordes from Atlanta: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/former-gop-rep-campaigning-with-gun-giveaway-to-fend-off-looting-hordes-from-atlanta


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Post #: 3983
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:45:57 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

John, I clicked on that site and read. I'm not familiar with Broun but that report is far too wonky to pay attention to.
I include it for entertainment value only

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 3984
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:46:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Oh, sorry. It's hard to tell these days, ya know?

How're things in your burrough?

Er, borough? How to spell it; I dunno.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/8/2020 7:48:01 PM >

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Post #: 3985
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:47:21 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Man doesn't want to give up his "liberty machine" to the government because he needs to defend against the Looting Hordes from Atlanta: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/former-gop-rep-campaigning-with-gun-giveaway-to-fend-off-looting-hordes-from-atlanta



The comments are more telling of society than the article. Ive noticed a increase in the police presence on my road and I'am in the middle of no where.

I also saw a single Pileated Woodpecker today. They are very common around here, but in pairs. Looking for love.

_____________________________








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Post #: 3986
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:49:08 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just found a nugget I thought would be too elusive for retrieval. A memory from more than 15 years ago, but I found it in the dusty archives of the internet. It flies contrary to expectations, and relates to some of our previous discussions, so here it is.

The Drudge Report (for those of you unfamiliar) posts an accumulation of links to news stories from various sources. For much of its existence it was widely perceived as right wing. But UCLA and other schools did a study (in 2003, I just learned) that rated it as centrist, of all things. Other sources (New York Times) received different ratings.

Here's the link to the study: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/romain.wacziarg/mediapapers/GrosecloseMilyo.pdf

For clarity: I am not a fan of The Drudge Report.




Holy antiquated study, Batman! I think I've just time-traveled to an era before the smartphones, social media and reality TV.

I'd forgotten the internet used to look like this! The image below is a link from the study.

There have been a fair number of papers on media bias, and the recent ones tend to point toward a mostly centrist core group of big journalism. It's more the outlier blogs and small outfits that have become so popular and influential that don't appear in these studies (and didn't exist in 2003 because the internet still looked like the below!) I'll link some soon.

Not so subtle use of font and case to emphasise "Discover Want" in the early Amazon ad.




quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I like this! Assertion backed by evidence, this is new! A bit dated though; here's something a bit more recent.

https://m.5harad.com/papers/mediabias.pdf


This is a haul when I'm focused on other stuff a bit more, but looks interesting.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/8/2020 7:54:56 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 3987
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 7:57:47 PM   
MakeeLearn


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US coronavirus death toll prediction drops over 25% to 60,000
April 8, 2020 | 2:11pm


https://nypost.com/2020/04/08/us-coronavirus-death-toll-prediction-at-60000-people/


"An influential model cited by the White House has cut its projected coronavirus death toll by 26 percent — along with its forecast of the fatalities for New York’s worst day.

As of Wednesday, the University of Washington’s model now predicts that 60,000 Americans will die in the pandemic by Aug. 4, down from a projection of nearly 82,000 just a day earlier.

Nationwide, the model moves the country’s coronavirus death toll apex to Sunday — four days sooner than expected — when 2,212 people are projected to perish from the deadly bug."

_____________________________








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Post #: 3988
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 8:00:08 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

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The situation in the UK is a bit odd. Just going off the numbers today's reported deaths are higher than all but the worst single days in Italy and Spain. But we have not seen the kind of scary reports of hospitals being overwhelmed that came from Lombardy/Madrid. There is of course the possibility that the coverage is being managed to an extent by the government. But in these times of Twitter etc I'd suggest it is pretty difficult to 'gag' those on the front line. If we'd been overwhelmed I think we'd know about it.

More likely, my speculation would be two possible (not mutually exclusive) explanations. One would be that our classification of deaths is less stringent than Italy/Spain. So a similar number of 'Coronavirus deaths' would not be representing an equivalent stress on health services on the ground. The other possibility is that Italy and Spain had their cases confined to much more localised regions (Lombardy/Madrid/Barcalona) whereas the UK - which is even more densely populated than the European average (England is twice as densely populated as Italy and 4 times more densely populated than Spain and indeed the USA) has had cases and deaths - and the strain on health services these represent - spread across the country. That would tally with the FT graphs which suggest that whilst things are bad in London they are not anywhere near as bad as they were in equivalent regions in Spain/Italy.

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Post #: 3989
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/8/2020 8:01:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Oh, sorry. It's hard to tell these days, ya know?

How're things in your burrough?

Er, borough? How to spell it; I dunno.
Well I currently don't live in NYC but live in a village, that is part of a town, which is part of a county. NYC, where I was born and raised has 5 boroughs. Manhattan (what the locals call "the city"), Brooklyn (where I was born and where I work), Queens (where I mostly grew up), The Bronx (the only part on the mainland and where I work sometimes) and Staten Island (which no one from NYC really considers part of the city and is really just a legalized version of New Jersey). All of the boroughs are also counties, but some have different names (the borough of Brooklyn is Kings County). Much of the mish-mash is result of the Dutch to English transition. Confusing, I know.....but Louisianan has parishes instead of counties so who knows?

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 4/8/2020 8:04:29 PM >


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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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