Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

As the reports from Italy have shown, as those from John Dillworth in NYC have shown, as Cap Mandrake reported yesterday it's a lot different when you're in the middle of a hotspot or a frontline position for this. We in the UK seem to be in the thick of it by the numbers, and yet much of the nation seems to be holding the line well, keeping spirits up somewhat, and (fingers crossed) the NHS seems to have had enough time to at least not collapse through this so far.

We have another week until the predicted peak.

The IHME prediction again comes in well over actual mortality numbers, but I'm cautious. It is a particularly worrisome prediction, and even if it's off, anywhere near the top side of the numbers would still be very bad.

All through this it's been hard to really come to terms with the personal experience vs the community experience, especially since we can't really "see" the community. It's sunny here which is again causing some to have backyard barbecues against the distancing order, and there were a lot of reports of house parties last weekend. Lets hope most of the cases those generated are mild, and the severe ones won't need hospitals until after April 17.

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Working in our "fever clinic" today. All the pediatricians in the group (14 or 15) screen their patients by telehealth and the ones they are worried about they send here.

If I think they need Covid screening I send them over to our "Drive-in" in Yorba Linda. Working in a gown, face shield and N-95 mask wears you out. We have to reuse everything except the gloves. It's totally 3rd world. 5 hrs of this crap and I am worn out. 4 to go. Never wanted a martini this bad before.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

As the reports from Italy have shown, as those from John Dillworth in NYC have shown, as Cap Mandrake reported yesterday it's a lot different when you're in the middle of a hotspot or a frontline position for this. We in the UK seem to be in the thick of it by the numbers, and yet much of the nation seems to be holding the line well, keeping spirits up somewhat, and (fingers crossed) the NHS seems to have had enough time to at least not collapse through this so far.

We have another week until the predicted peak.

The IHME prediction again comes in well over actual mortality numbers, but I'm cautious. It is a particularly worrisome prediction, and even if it's off, anywhere near the top side of the numbers would still be very bad.

All through this it's been hard to really come to terms with the personal experience vs the community experience, especially since we can't really "see" the community. It's sunny here which is again causing some to have backyard barbecues against the distancing order, and there were a lot of reports of house parties last weekend. Lets hope most of the cases those generated are mild, and the severe ones won't need hospitals until after April 17.

Maybe you should hope for some cold, rainy/snowy weather.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I tend to post what I see, no matter the country, no matter the source if I consider it reliable enough.

You don't have to be an expert to make sense of this although having experts in the various fields comment here does help. Too bad Chickenboy does not return. We also have a MD in the front lines, so to speak, as well as an expert in handling the emergency response system.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I tend to post what I see, no matter the country, no matter the source if I consider it reliable enough.

You don't have to be an expert to make sense of this although having experts in the various fields comment here does help. Too bad Chickenboy does not return. We also have a MD in the front lines, so to speak, as well as an expert in handling the emergency response system.

+1

In the US, the sense of crisis really began to mature in February. A flood of information was coming out. Most of it alarming.

Knowing the diversity of the Forum community, and in particular the expertise of several members (as Ranger points out), I started this thread on 2/26, just as things were beginning to improve in China and deteriorate in South Korea. In many ways it was dawn.

My three children are in their 20s and haven't been through anything like this before. I wrote them describing some prior events (SARS, H1N1) that might give an idea as to how these things play out. Given the proclivity of the media for sensationalizing and politicizing, I turned to you all. Hard data and the collective input from this community seemed to offer a more mature and reliable measure of what was going on and what might happen.

Weekly and sometimes daily reports to my kids have been mostly taken from information posted here by so many contributors. Because of you, those reports have been consistently more optimistic and realistic than what they'd otherwise be getting through the media and social media. Consequently, they've had a better handle on this, complying assiduously with the regulations but not controlled by the hysteria of social media.

We're still in the thick of it, especially some countries and states and cities, but things are beginning to come into focus, especially in places like Italy, Spain, and much of the US.

Thank you for contributing.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: HansBolter

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ORIGINAL: obvert

A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT.

Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.

I think you only copied a portion of my statement. I edited it for you. It's not intended to be offensive. Just observatory.

I also noticed the timecode on your post, GMT.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.

A lot of those crashes are caused by a loose nut. The one that holds the steering wheel.

Driving in Germany was FUN!

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yesterday, I finished re-reading Stephen Ambrose's Band of Brothers. Following our discussion yesterday that touched on optimism and pessimism, last night I began re-reading Ambrose's The Victors, which includes this passage on pages 19-20: "Nor could [General George Marshall] abide the pessimist. He surrounded himself with men who were offensive-minded and who concentrated on possibilities rather than the difficulties."

I'd quibble with Marshall, at least as it pertains to this virus. Having a healthy mix of both would be helpful. During college, I competed in intercollegiate forestry competitions, including the estimation of tree diameter. We'd be taken to a point 10 feet from a massive loblolly pine or a sapling yellow poplar an asked to estimate its diameter. We repeated the process for ten trees. I came in second to a rascal from Clemson University. My method was to take stock of the tree and then hazard a guess well above and well below what I thought was realistic. Thus calibrated, I'd work up and down from the two extremes until comfortable with a best guess.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: Wuffer

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

Red Tape:
Dr. Marty Makary claims obscure FDA regulation caused setback to coronavirus antibody test

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"But our FDA has a system where, using these old regulatory rules, it insisted on sanctioning the test," Makary continued. "And we lost precious time when one of the original scientists submitted an application and was told that he had to submit it also by paper mail with a CD-ROM with the files burned on it."

To be honest, there is no specific covid-19 test available worldwide - they react to other corona types too = false positive. Otherwise it would be a real game changer.
Many claimed, but no one delivered, e.g. the actual german PR disaster.

The point of the article is they (in the US) did not get to begin deploying tests because they had to go through red tape which included archaic requirements.

Red tape has followed this in so many places, not just the US. The sereology tests here are said to be delayed until mid-may, the claim being they're not accurate enough yet. Probably the same as Wuffer mentioned in Germany.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.

warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.

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Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Are the deaths "From Coronavirus" or "With Coronavirus"

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ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes ;)

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious!

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You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour.

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Nomad

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ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.

warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.

I agree with all of what you wrote except this.

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Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The first thing required is to recognized and decide what direction to proceed. That's what this article is about.

If we expect any article to contain all the 'how to do it' needed then we are manifesting one of the major failings which got us here in the first place, greedy laziness. And that is all over the place. Consider how much goes on with respect to this very topic (COVID-19): it seems that many people consider screaming about infection tests and antibody tests (and on and on) is all it takes to achieve them.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I understand your point. At some point, science/statisticians will sort through these things and reconcile reports, hopefully accurately.

Right now this is the best we have to work with. As long as it is consistent in its methodology, there's utility in what we're doing, as mentioned a time or two yesterday.

IE, if Nigeria reports cases a certain way on April 10 and the same way through April 25, there's utility in the info even if I might disagree with the parameters of the tabulations.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
Are the deaths "From Coronavirus" or "With Coronavirus"