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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 4:58:33 PM

Nomad

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Here is an article discussing how long Covid-19 has been active in the USA. It postulates it has been here longer than many think.
Oops, I guess a link is in order:

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/how_long_has_the_chinese_coronavirus_really_been_in_america.html

< Message edited by Nomad -- 4/13/2020 5:03:37 PM >

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Post #: 4531

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:01:45 PM

MakeeLearn

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Latest coronavirus model predicts fewer deaths in Florida.
April 13, 2020

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/327844-latest-coronavirus-model-predicts-fewer-deaths-in-florida

"A University of Washington coronavirus pandemic model showed a gloomy outlook for Florida just days ago, but a new update offers a less dire outcome."

"Florida Department of Health data has shown a slowdown in case counts, from a to-date peak of 1,300-a-day last week to around 1,100 for the past few days.

As of Saturday morning, DOH reports 18,494 coronavirus cases statewide, with 438 deaths and 2,528 hospitalizations."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:02:29 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

Here is an article discussing how long Covid-19 has been active in the USA. It postulates it has been here longer than many think.

Where dat be?

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Post #: 4533

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:03:58 PM

Canoerebel

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From the preceding link provided by MakeeLearn (Swiss Propaganda Research): "Countries without lockdowns and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. This might call into question the effectiveness of such far-reaching measures."

I don't know anything about that outfit or its methods, but this finding would be groundbreaking if true.

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Post #: 4534

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:07:45 PM

MakeeLearn

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Angela Merkel faces pressure to ease lockdown and reopen schools as Germany's daily Covid-19 death count drops to 126 and cops are attacked with stones and iron bars while trying to enforce social distancing
13 April 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8213859/Angela-Merkel-faces-pressure-ease-lockdown-Germanys-daily-Covid-19-death-count-drops.html

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing pressure to ease the lockdown and reopen schools as the number of new coronavirus cases and deaths in the country continues to fall.

Germany reported 2,537 new cases today marking the third consecutive day of decline.

The country saw 4,133 new diagnoses on Saturday and 2,821 on Sunday with the total number of infected now hitting 123,016. The death toll is also on its third day of decline after it rose by 126 to 2,799.

The declining figures come amid shocking reports that groups of thugs attacked German police with iron bars and threw stones when the officers tried to disperse them."

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Post #: 4535

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:13:00 PM

Canoerebel

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From Swiss Media Group: "Several media have been caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative pictures and videos. In general, many media outlets do not question even doubtful official statements and figures."

That's pretty darned provocative.

It'd be helpful to know if this Media Group is bogus or not.

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Post #: 4536

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:15:07 PM

Canoerebel

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From Swiss Media Group: "In a serological pilot study, German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University."

If that's true, Chickenboy's thoughts way back on February 26 were on target.

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Post #: 4537

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:18:17 PM

Canoerebel

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While I'm unfamiliar with the SMG, this assertion makes sense: "Professor Ansgar Lohse, Director at the Hamburg University Hospital, explains in an interview: In my opinion, the Swedish measures are the most rational in the world. Of course, the question arises whether this can be kept up psychologically. Initially, the Swedes have to reckon with significantly more deaths, but in the medium to long term these will then be significantly reduced. The bill will be paid in a year � if the Swedes can hold out. Unfortunately, the fear of the virus often forces politicians to take actions that are not necessarily reasonable. Politics is driven also by the images in the media."

It's hard to swim against a current.

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Post #: 4538

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 5:21:51 PM

Canoerebel

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Here's a case where SMG seems to get it wrong: "A Covid19 field hospital near Seattle in Washington State was closed after only three days without admitting any patients. This is reminiscent of the hospitals built at short notice near Wuhan, which were also mostly under-utilized or even empty and were then dismantled after a short time."

As I understand it, the field hospital was built to take on non-Covid cases, freeing up ICUs to handle them. (The same thing was done with the two USN hospital ships.)

Since SMG is new to me, I won't quote further unless and until its bona fides are established. But their thoughts make interesting reading.

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Post #: 4539

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 6:03:38 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "Several media have been caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative pictures and videos. In general, many media outlets do not question even doubtful official statements and figures."

That's pretty darned provocative.

It'd be helpful to know if this Media Group is bogus or not.

CBS showed video of an overwhelmed Italian hospital in a story about New York....twice. The first time the claimed an "editing error"..then they did the exact same thing 2 d later.

That's exploitation.

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Post #: 4540

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 6:08:09 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "In a serological pilot study, German virologist Hendrick Streeck comes to the interim result that the lethality of Covid19 is at 0.37% and the mortality (based on the total population) at 0.06%. These values are about ten times lower than those of the WHO and about five times lower than those of Johns Hopkins University."

If that's true, Chickenboy's thoughts way back on February 26 were on target.

Perhaps, but this is with the most extreme public health interventions in the history of the planet and the West is only about 2 months into this.

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Post #: 4541

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 6:33:09 PM

Canoerebel

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New Jersey continues to drop quickly and to come in under Univ. of Wash. projections. Today's mortality 93 (210 projected).

So good news from the key tri-state area. Both NY and NJ are showing noteworthy declines (and CT came in beneath projection yesterday).

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Post #: 4542

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:07:20 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

More good news from the UK today (in context of the overall pandemic and bearing in mind what each number represents). Daily mortality dropped a bit, to 717, far under the projected 1,535 by U. Wash. (margin of error 671 to 3,263). It seems very likely that U. Wash. will revised its projection downwards shortly from the 37k currently in place.

Why?

If the observed mortality (which will be different from the unknown true mortality) is within MoE, what would be the justification for revision? Seeing as you seem to be an authority on the U of Wash model, you seem a good place to start.

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Post #: 4543

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:11:19 PM

Canoerebel

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There's been three revisions for the US and each state in the past eight days, and one for the UK. It seems that Univ. of Washington updates the models frequently, feeding in new data (and possibly tweaking methods?) This makes sense. Since their models consistently over-project mortality in the US and UK, newer runs correct for that.

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Post #: 4544

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:12:24 PM

Canoerebel

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Love the snarky sarcasm of "you seem to be an authority...." Relax with some cookies and milk.

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Post #: 4545

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:25:44 PM

RFalvo69

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Angela Merkel faces pressure to ease lockdown and reopen schools as Germany's daily Covid-19 death count drops to 126 and cops are attacked with stones and iron bars while trying to enforce social distancing
13 April 2020

The irony here being that the cops are being attacked with "social distance" weapons, not with brawls and fistfights.

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Post #: 4546

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:31:14 PM

btd64

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Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

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Post #: 4547

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:32:44 PM

Canoerebel

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That is good news, General Patton. Do you have to self-quarantine or are you in the all-clear?

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Post #: 4548

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:38:01 PM

btd64

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3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

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Post #: 4549

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 7:58:11 PM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64

3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

That was some serious pucker-factor waiting on that result!

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 8:18:33 PM

btd64

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64

3 or 4 days or until the meds start to work on my lung infection....GP

That was some serious pucker-factor waiting on that result!

The Covid19 nose test came back in about an hour. The 3 to 4 days is for my apparent lung infection....GP

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Post #: 4551

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 8:18:52 PM

Nomad

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quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64

Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

Don't you listen to Captain Kirk? clean your cpap daily.

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Post #: 4552

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 8:22:35 PM

btd64

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

quote:

ORIGINAL: btd64

Good news, I tested negative after a tough night of shortness of breath and severe cough. It was my cpap that almost did me in....GP

Don't you listen to Captain Kirk? clean your cpap daily.

I was, just not throughly enough. I am now....GP

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Post #: 4553

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 8:26:04 PM

Canoerebel

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It looks like Univ. of Washington just revised its projection for the US (and presumably for the states, though I haven't checked them yet.

Mortality increased to about 69k (from 61k). Ironically, on the day it appears that mortality will come in 500 to 700 below the projection (but within the margin of error).

The UK projection was revised downward again, this time to about 24k.

A quick look at a couple of hot spot states shows that NY and NJ projections were nudged up a bit.

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Post #: 4554

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 8:28:16 PM

Canoerebel

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Projections until peak days were pushed further out for some states but remain about the same for NY and NJ, where they fall to 0 around May 1.

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Post #: 4555

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 9:54:32 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

From Swiss Media Group: "Several media have been caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative pictures and videos. In general, many media outlets do not question even doubtful official statements and figures."

That's pretty darned provocative.

It'd be helpful to know if this Media Group is bogus or not.

CBS showed video of an overwhelmed Italian hospital in a story about New York....twice. The first time the claimed an "editing error"..then they did the exact same thing 2 d later.

That's exploitation.

That could be dispersal of staff with many working from home, with all its distractions (including kids home from school and squabbling because of their cabin fever).

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 10:23:08 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-chloroquine-study-stopped-early.html?utm_source=notification

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Post #: 4557

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 10:23:51 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's been three revisions for the US and each state in the past eight days, and one for the UK. It seems that Univ. of Washington updates the models frequently, feeding in new data (and possibly tweaking methods?) This makes sense. Since their models consistently over-project mortality in the US and UK, newer runs correct for that.

Is it an over-projection if it falls within the MoE?

Keeping in mind that both the projected value and the current official value are =/= the unknown true value.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Love the snarky sarcasm of "you seem to be an authority...." Relax with some cookies and milk.

Well, you do seem to have an inside line into the modelling discussions at University of Washington.

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Post #: 4558

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 10:29:31 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-chloroquine-study-stopped-early.html?utm_source=notification

That would be absurd, and we'd actually have to make elected officials listen to expert medical opinion.

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Post #: 4559

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/13/2020 10:50:31 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Careful Brazilian case/control study of Hydroxychloroquine halted because of dangerous arrhythmias in the high dose group (600 mg twice a day).

There was a convincing incidence of ventricular tachycardia

The patients still alive were converted to 450 twice a day. This is why you need the science instead of listening to prophets.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-chloroquine-study-stopped-early.html?utm_source=notification

That is why there are studies, that way the proper dosage can be determined and risks identified.

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Post #: 4560