Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is not unprecedented.

In fact, historically speaking, it will almost surely be minimal compared to the great pandemics of the past.

Once again, this is a skewed view of the situation.

The great pandemics of the past, up to the Spanish Flu of 1918 happened in very different Worlds. Let's take two examples:

In the 1300s, when the Black Plague hit, the average guy most probably knew how to gather food, drinkable water, build a shelter and try to ride it out. He couldn't fight the disease, because the methods of transmission were unknown (and still the idea of "social distance" already existed). However, he most probably had all the skills needed to be alone and self-sufficient: hunting, gathering etc.

When the plague went away, four years later, 30%-50% of Europe was dead. The survivors sighed, resumed their lives and moved on.

In 1918 the World wasn't as globalised as it is now: the interdependence between countries was not as strong as it is today. And one could argue that the mere diplomatic interdependence of the European states in 1914 was among the primary causes of WWI.

In 1984 the BBC broadcast a TV movie called "Threads". It was a realistic view at a potential "limited" nuclear war and it came out before "The Day After". Today it is available for free on Youtube.

The key word, here, is the title: "Threads". It refers to the complex interconnections of the modern World, a World where we hyper specialise in some skills and personal infrastructure but are dependent to a myriad of other people for the skills and general infrastructure we lack. I can repair a faucet, not my area's hydraulic infrastructure.

And what happens when a major event (a nuclear war in the movie, a pandemic now in the real World) breaks these interconnections?

Do you know how to milk a cow? How to hunt? How to prepare edible meat starting from a dead animal? How to evaluate if the mead is edible in the first place? How to find fresh water and evaluate if it is drinkable?

True, there are people with these skills - but not many in the "developed World". Not in 1984 and not today. If only a few strands in the interconnected World break, everything stops - which is what we are seeing. Can I survive if my country is miraculously OK but I was working for France and France is shut down? Can the aviation industry survive if a big chunk of their passengers to Paris doesn't fly anymore? And so on.

Another example in a different field? In 2007-2008 some people in the States defaulted in their mortgage payments ---> The result was the biggest and hardest economic crisis modern Greece ever saw. Can you see the connection? The intricate web that brought the poison of a "local" crisis across the globe? Yeah, me neither (at the time, now I read some books).

It is not what is happening that is unprecedented, it is the World were the pandemic is happening that is, historically, in an unprecedented state. A very, very fragile one - or thus we are discovering.

And this is what makes the current event "unprecedented".

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[In reply to RFalvo:] IF you're pointing the finger at countries suffering the most, that's a valid point. They either got unlucky or did things wrong or weren't prepared for this ambush or a combination of those things. People there shouldn't be telling those in other countries what to do or think. Offer opinions and insights, yes. Scold? No.

This is the third time a forumite has raised the "additional deaths" argument against those he disagrees with. That's....well, any word inserted is too charged. Put it this way - it's a loathsome way to try and make points, suggesting that others favor or are responsible for or will cause deaths. As we said yesterday and about four weeks ago here, nobody in this forum is cavalier about mortality. We do have different views on what to do, how to do it, and when to do it. Everyone is trying to balance risks against rewards; to minimize mortality while easing back into a more sustainable way of doing things.

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


Just tell the gunman who has a gun pressed against your head to go away: you have my permission to ignore my posts.

That could easily be misconstrued to constitute a threat.
You might want to be careful with language like that.

And as for the advice to ignore....accepted.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



All this has made me rethink my hobby of anally swabbing bats. I might take up fishing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Protests are popping up across the US over stay-at-home restrictions
Apr 16, 2020

https://wreg.com/news/coronavirus/protests-are-popping-up-across-the-us-over-stay-at-home-restrictions/


"(CNN) — Protesters gathered in several state capitals this week to voice their opposition to stay-at-home orders issued to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina and Utah — states led by both Republican and Democratic governors — have all seen protests in recent days as people grow more concerned about the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic.

Being aced by the Coronavirus is a sure way to not have economic worries ever again, I agree.

You are becoming more obnoxious with each post and I am liking Clive less and less with each one.

The majority of those protesters are likely working age adults. For most age groups under mine (60s) the percentage chance of death from the virus isn't much higher than that of getting hit by a bus crossing a street. People are simply not willing to tolerate being told they are not allowed to make a living due to a risk of that magnitude. If we destroy our economies there will be far more death from far more causes than the virus.

I can appreciate the potential level of paranoia the experiences in Italy may have fostered in some, but you should endeavor to avoid allowing that paranoia to dominate how you judge others. Furthermore, the Good Book tells us we shouldn't be judging others in the first place.

Will please try to reign it in a bit?

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


Just tell the gunman who has a gun pressed against your head to go away: you have my permission to ignore my posts.

That could easily be misconstrued to constitute a threat.
You might want to be careful with language like that.

And as for the advice to ignore....accepted.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In turn, they don't need to be lecturing us and telling us what to do. Thus far, we're managing comparatively well.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is not unprecedented.

In fact, historically speaking, it will almost surely be minimal compared to the great pandemics of the past.

Once again, this is a skewed view of the situation.

The great pandemics of the past, up to the Spanish Flu of 1918 happened in very different Worlds. Let's take two examples:

In the 1300s, when the Black Plague hit, the average guy most probably knew how to gather food, drinkable water, build a shelter and try to ride it out. He couldn't fight the disease, because the methods of transmission were unknown (and still the idea of "social distance" already existed). However, he most probably had all the skills needed to be alone and self-sufficient: hunting, gathering etc.

When the plague went away, four years later, 30%-50% of Europe was dead. The survivors sighed, resumed their lives and moved on.

In 1918 the World wasn't as globalised as it is now: the interdependence between countries was not as strong as it is today. And one could argue that the mere diplomatic interdependence of the European states in 1914 was among the primary causes of WWI.

In 1984 the BBC broadcast a TV movie called "Threads". It was a realistic view at a potential "limited" nuclear war and it came out before "The Day After". Today it is available for free on Youtube.

The key word, here, is the title: "Threads". It refers to the complex interconnections of the modern World, a World where we hyper specialise in some skills and personal infrastructure but are dependent to a myriad of other people for the skills and general infrastructure we lack. I can repair a faucet, not my area's hydraulic infrastructure.

And what happens when a major event (a nuclear war in the movie, a pandemic now in the real World) breaks these interconnections?

Do you know how to milk a cow? How to hunt? How to prepare edible meat starting from a dead animal? How to evaluate if the mead is edible in the first place? How to find fresh water and evaluate if it is drinkable?

True, there are people with these skills - but not many in the "developed World". Not in 1984 and not today. If only a few strands in the interconnected World break, everything stops - which is what we are seeing. Can I survive if my country is miraculously OK but I was working for France and France is shut down? Can the aviation industry survive if a big chunk of their passengers to Paris doesn't fly anymore? And so on.

Another example in a different field? In 2007-2008 some people in the States defaulted in their mortgage payments ---> The result was the biggest and hardest economic crisis modern Greece ever saw. Can you see the connection? The intricate web that brought the poison of a "local" crisis across the globe? Yeah, me neither (at the time, now I read some books).

It is not what is happening that is unprecedented, it is the World were the pandemic is happening that is, historically, in an unprecedented state. A very, very fragile one - or thus we are discovering.

And this is what makes the current event "unprecedented".

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 4/11/2020.*

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As you basically admitted, this is not unprecedented. Far from it.

Each plague catches mankind in a different position. If people were more dispersed or self-sufficient, they were also more vulnerable. So some pandemics ravaged; others didn't.

This one, thus far, hasn't (on the whole, with notable exceptions).

Yes, I can milk a cow, hunt, and forage for wild food to supplement my diet. I realize other peoples/cultures/countries are further removed from that state of existence so require a different approach.

In turn, they don't need to be lecturing us and telling us what to do. Thus far, we're managing comparatively well.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



All this has made me rethink my hobby of anally swabbing bats. I might take up fishing.

Wait. Whose anus gets swabbed? Is that like a subculture?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We haven't looked at Africa in about 10 days or so. Cases there remain remarkably low in comparison to Europe and North America. Since the virus has been in Africa since early March (IIRC), it's had plenty of time to do its work. No matter what countermeasures were taken, no matter how dispersed or concentrated the population, no matter what impact chance had, the virus should have grown exponentially by now, if it was going to.

There are two possible explanations that I can think of: (1) Africa doesn't test or under-reports results in ways unlike the rest of the world, or (2) Africa is somehow different.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

There really is no option other than some liberalization of the lockdown. Eventually you would need armed force to prevent it. 1st of May is doable. Another month? Wow. I doubt it.

An interesting observation:

The school lockdown has literally made acute asthma attacks disappear in children. Fractures. Lacerations. Sports injuries. All gone. Ear infections..90% gone..only a few swimmer's ear cases. I've never seen anything like it. Skin infections..markedly reduced.

What is worse? Psychiatric problems. Anxiety. Depression. Essentially all talk therapy is over. Some psychiatrists are doing video visits still and filling scripts.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, I wouldn't go to a movie theater or a packed stadium, if any were open.

But I've been doing more hiking, biking, and canoeing than ever. Almost always by myself, but sometimes with a companion.

Tonight, my wife and I are going camping with friends. Wife and I will drive together and sleep in our tent together. The others are a family that will drive together and sleep in their tent. In the great outdoors, it'll be easy to maintain distancing. We'll probably have a campfire, with wife and me on one side and them on the other. I have no reservations about this, but I wouldn't want to go to the store where a bunch of people might be hacking and wheezing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Right now, I wouldn't go to a movie theater or a packed stadium, if any were open.

But I've been doing more hiking, biking, and canoeing than ever. Almost always by myself, but sometimes with a companion.

Tonight, my wife and I are going camping with friends. Wife and I will drive together and sleep in our tent together. The others are a family that will drive together and sleep in their tent. In the great outdoors, it'll be easy to maintain distancing. We'll probably have a campfire, with wife and me on one side and them on the other. I have no reservations about this, but I wouldn't want to go to the store where a bunch of people might be hacking and wheezing.

I appreciate that you've got far more land to do that than we have, but the great open spaces around us are closed.

The Lakes, the Pennines are all within an hours drive from us and they are turning around cars that attempt to visit.

I guess we will see which way works best!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We haven't looked at Africa in about 10 days or so. Cases there remain remarkably low in comparison to Europe and North America. Since the virus has been in Africa since early March (IIRC), it's had plenty of time to do its work. No matter what countermeasures were taken, no matter how dispersed or concentrated the population, no matter what impact chance had, the virus should have grown exponentially by now, if it was going to.

There are two possible explanations that I can think of: (1) Africa doesn't test or under-reports results in ways unlike the rest of the world, or (2) Africa is somehow different.

It's #1.

6 days ago, South Africa, Cameroon, and Ghana started testing nationwide: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/screening-key-to-halting-runaway-train-of-infection-in-africa

On March 24, Nigeria (the most populous country on the continent) had only conducted 150ish total tests: https://qz.com/africa/1824401/coronavirus-nigerias-cdc-has-conducted-only-153-tests/

As of April 3, South Africa had tested 47,000 people (they have ~1/6 the US population): https://qz.com/africa/1832066/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-south-africa-leads-continent/

As of April 11, South Africa had conducted 60,000 tests: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52230991


And on and on... insufficient testing means the numbers in Africa are almost certainly too low and very inaccurate.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As you basically admitted, this is not unprecedented. Far from it.

Each plague catches mankind in a different position. If people were more dispersed or self-sufficient, they were also more vulnerable. So some pandemics ravaged; others didn't.

This one, thus far, hasn't (on the whole, with notable exceptions).

Yes, I can milk a cow, hunt, and forage for wild food to supplement my diet. I realize other peoples/cultures/countries are further removed from that state of existence so require a different approach.

In turn, they don't need to be lecturing us and telling us what to do. Thus far, we're managing comparatively well.

You miss the point. No one is telling you what to do. RFalvo is simply stating what may happen, what is likely to happen if anyone has the virus, doesn't know it, and interacts with other people.

You choose what to do.

You also choose (if infected) to put others in danger. It's not a lecture. It's fact.

Instances like the article posted by MakeeLearn about the homeless shelter in Boston where they tested everyone and found 147 cases out of 397 people there, an NONE were at the time symptomatic show this may be happening a lot.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/ZADQ45HCAZEVJAZA3OTCUR7M6M/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We haven't looked at Africa in about 10 days or so. Cases there remain remarkably low in comparison to Europe and North America. Since the virus has been in Africa since early March (IIRC), it's had plenty of time to do its work. No matter what countermeasures were taken, no matter how dispersed or concentrated the population, no matter what impact chance had, the virus should have grown exponentially by now, if it was going to.

There are two possible explanations that I can think of: (1) Africa doesn't test or under-reports results in ways unlike the rest of the world, or (2) Africa is somehow different.

It's #1.

6 days ago, South Africa, Cameroon, and Ghana started testing nationwide: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/screening-key-to-halting-runaway-train-of-infection-in-africa

On March 24, Nigeria (the most populous country on the continent) had only conducted 150ish total tests: https://qz.com/africa/1824401/coronavirus-nigerias-cdc-has-conducted-only-153-tests/

As of April 3, South Africa had tested 47,000 people (they have ~1/6 the US population): https://qz.com/africa/1832066/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-south-africa-leads-continent/

As of April 11, South Africa had conducted 60,000 tests: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52230991


And on and on... insufficient testing means the numbers in Africa are almost certainly too low and very inaccurate.

But the deaths are way below also? If Nigeria was running at 200/deaths per million like the UK that would put them at 39,000 deaths. Whether those people had been tested or not the deaths would show up somewhere and as far as I am aware they haven't?

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn



All this has made me rethink my hobby of anally swabbing bats. I might take up fishing.

Wait. Whose anus gets swabbed? Is that like a subculture?

Whose? Who you got!

subculture?

Dates back to Roman Empire. It was the opening act for Gladiatorial Games. Then it fell into obscurity except for the Upper Class, who became quite prolific at it. It's making a comeback with regional meets and competitions.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik, you're wrong again.

There are innumerable instances of people in here telling others what to do, what to think, imposing their views, and telling others that the views of the others are "dangerous" (remember that?) and will lead to deaths.

There is one side that says, "This is what I think." There is another that says, "This is what you should think." It's happened over and over in here.

You're saying people in this forum are willing to put others in danger? Where the heck does that come from?

Man, the hubris is amazing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As you basically admitted, this is not unprecedented. Far from it.

Each plague catches mankind in a different position. If people were more dispersed or self-sufficient, they were also more vulnerable. So some pandemics ravaged; others didn't.

This one, thus far, hasn't (on the whole, with notable exceptions).

Yes, I can milk a cow, hunt, and forage for wild food to supplement my diet. I realize other peoples/cultures/countries are further removed from that state of existence so require a different approach.

In turn, they don't need to be lecturing us and telling us what to do. Thus far, we're managing comparatively well.

You miss the point. No one is telling you what to do. RFalvo is simply stating what may happen, what is likely to happen if anyone has the virus, doesn't know it, and interacts with other people.

You choose what to do.

You also choose (if infected) to put others in danger. It's not a lecture. It's fact.

Instances like the article posted by MakeeLearn about the homeless shelter in Boston where they tested everyone and found 147 cases out of 397 people there, an NONE were at the time symptomatic show this may be happening a lot.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/ZADQ45HCAZEVJAZA3OTCUR7M6M/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik, you're wrong again.

There are innumerable instances of people in here telling others what to do, what to think, imposing their views, and telling others that the views of the others are "dangerous" (remember that?) and will lead to deaths.

There is one side that says, "This is what I think." There is another that says, "This is what you should think." It's happened over and over in here.

You're saying people in this forum are willing to put others in danger? Where the heck does that come from?

Man, the hubris is amazing.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As you basically admitted, this is not unprecedented. Far from it.

Each plague catches mankind in a different position. If people were more dispersed or self-sufficient, they were also more vulnerable. So some pandemics ravaged; others didn't.

This one, thus far, hasn't (on the whole, with notable exceptions).

Yes, I can milk a cow, hunt, and forage for wild food to supplement my diet. I realize other peoples/cultures/countries are further removed from that state of existence so require a different approach.

In turn, they don't need to be lecturing us and telling us what to do. Thus far, we're managing comparatively well.

You miss the point. No one is telling you what to do. RFalvo is simply stating what may happen, what is likely to happen if anyone has the virus, doesn't know it, and interacts with other people.

You choose what to do.

You also choose (if infected) to put others in danger. It's not a lecture. It's fact.

Instances like the article posted by MakeeLearn about the homeless shelter in Boston where they tested everyone and found 147 cases out of 397 people there, an NONE were at the time symptomatic show this may be happening a lot.

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/trending/coronavirus-cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/ZADQ45HCAZEVJAZA3OTCUR7M6M/

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Only 21% Of Females Tested Positive To Coronavirus In Nigeria – NCDC
Apr 17, 2020


https://www.naijaloaded.com.ng/news/only-21-of-females-tested-positive-to-coronavirus-in-nigeria-ncdc


"The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), says of a total of 6,649 people tested for the Coronavirus disease nationwide.

The latest report by the public health agency indicates that there are more male patients than females.

Dr. Chikwe Ihekweazu, Director General (DG) of the NCDC disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Friday in Abuja."


"“NCDC data revealed that of the 6,649 suspected cases tested for the disease, 71 percent were males, while females made up just 21 percent of the total number.”

“210 had travel history, 129 were contacts of confirmed cases, 11 were infected by unknown sources, while 92 still had incomplete epidemiological information,” he added."

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nigeria's Banner Oil Hits $12, Millions of Barrels Remain Unsold
April 17, 2020

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/nigerias-banner-oil-hits-12-millions-of-barrels-remain-unsold


(Bloomberg) — The real oil market is killing Nigeria.


"One of the country’s benchmark grades, Bonny Light, fell to about $12 or $13 a barrel this week, according to traders monitoring the West African market. The deeply loss-making level shines a light on a chasm that’s emerged between real crude prices that producers are fetching, and headline futures contracts like Brent, which stood at about $28 on Friday."