Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

FWIW these would be my three principles for effective cross-Atlantic communication (in both directions).

Transmitting - think about how what you are saying might be perceived by the recipient, who may well be of a very different world view. Avoid preaching (IMHO a more European sin). Avoid the framing of opinions as self-evident facts (for me this is perhaps more of an American trait - less willing to try an impose opinions on others but perhaps also quicker to frame issues in black and white/right and wrong).

Receiving - when you read/hear something that really grates take a moment to 'calibrate' it against the prevailing thinking on both sides rather than immediately seeing it as something extreme that must be challenged. When you have an issue where you know there is a massive gap in thinking it does not achieve anything both sides repeating their own view at increasingly fevered pitches when there is no hope of common ground.

Assumption of good intent - people won't always get the above two principles right. When they drop the ball don't assume that this demonstrates hostile intent. Give people the opportunity to rephrase or even if appropriate retract rather than immediately jumping down their throats and playing a part in escalating things.

The above all sounds self-evident. But for me I think that due to our shared heritages people on both sides of the Atlantic sometimes underestimate how far opinions on specific issues or indeed values systems in general have diverged and because of that underestimation the differences of opinion that inevitably arise seem to be much starker and more challenging.

Just my 2c. Maybe I have immediately become guilty of that European trait of preaching !

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Man, a few people here simply have no sense of proportion and respect.

Nobody in this forum wants anybody to die. Nobody here (that I know of) is engaging in risky behavior. Everyone seems to be complying with regulations.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

See what I mean?

The arrogance here is remarkable.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.


And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?

Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.

I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.

The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;

hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

LOL.

Obvert has applied Asian Georgia regulations to USA Georgia.

I could live with that.

I love ponytails.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Every couple weeks I go see what the Conference Board is saying about different national economic indicators, whether they're leading (LEI), current (CEI) or lagging economic indicators. The Conference Board is also the determining body for whether we have, or have had a recession. A common (but mistaken) belief is that a recession is two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. It's not. These guys call the ball.

Anyways, this morning they updated their LEI/CEI models for the US. -6.7% LEIs MOM. The most in their 60 year history of monitoring these trends. Here's the press release and .pdf. Brutal. Just brutal.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20APRIL%202020.pdf

Oh...Jeez. That makes the Grand Canyon look like a rain puddle. 20 somethings get their stimulus check and they think it's party time but the longer this goes on, the more businesses fail and the lower consumer confidence gets. Trump was criticized for worrying about the economy...Hell SOMEBODY has to. I'd bet we are down 20% if you don't count panic buying of toilet paper.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.


And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?

Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.

I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.

The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;

hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence

Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.

Where on earth has anybody said that???

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

FWIW these would be my three principles for effective cross-Atlantic communication (in both directions).

Transmitting - think about how what you are saying might be perceived by the recipient, who may well be of a very different world view. Avoid preaching (IMHO a more European sin). Avoid the framing of opinions as self-evident facts (for me this is perhaps more of an American trait - less willing to try an impose opinions on others but perhaps also quicker to frame issues in black and white/right and wrong).

Receiving - when you read/hear something that really grates take a moment to 'calibrate' it against the prevailing thinking on both sides rather than immediately seeing it as something extreme that must be challenged. When you have an issue where you know there is a massive gap in thinking it does not achieve anything both sides repeating their own view at increasingly fevered pitches when there is no hope of common ground.

Assumption of good intent - people won't always get the above two principles right. When they drop the ball don't assume that this demonstrates hostile intent. Give people the opportunity to rephrase or even if appropriate retract rather than immediately jumping down their throats and playing a part in escalating things.

The above all sounds self-evident. But for me I think that due to our shared heritages people on both sides of the Atlantic sometimes underestimate how far opinions on specific issues or indeed values systems in general have diverged and because of that underestimation the differences of opinion that inevitably arise seem to be much starker and more challenging.

Just my 2c. Maybe I have immediately become guilty of that European trait of preaching !

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

[inserted wrong quote - in response to CHICKEN BOY AND CAP MANDRAKE]

This is more my area of (limited) expertise - Banker Economist - educated as such.

Note this is very very concerning. Leading Economic Indicators by most authoritative organizations do point to recession in all major developed Economies. People have a right to be worried and should not be chastised for such.

However the Conference Board LEIs may perhaps be overly influenced by select component which exaggerate the initial shock and may further exaggerate the upswing depending upon the speed of recovery.

...

I wouldn't invest in (i) Cruise Lines (ii) Airlines (iii) Cinematic Theater in the short term. Other industries come to mind but I cannot foresee resumption of normal anytime soon. Nor theme parks. Nor publicly traded Sports Teams. Shopping Malls. Industries that depend upon "congregations of people".

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Let's run a simple simulation, shall we? One valid for the Western World in a general sense.

1. You (with this meaning "a general guy") open shop again (let's say it is a shop for simplicity). You are infected but asymptomatic. After a few days a percentage of your customers fall ill. Some tracking is done and the cluster is centered around your shop. You lose all your customers, you have to close shop and, according to the laws of your country, possibly become target of a score of lawsuits (God forbids that a customer's elderly in-laws got the virus via you). In any case, your activity is, "de facto", wiped out.

2. But wait, it gets better! You are not a carrier and everything is fine. But your neighbour is. Some of his/her customers get infected and, since they are doing a shopping round, they come to you next. Soon or later you get infected. Go to 1.

3. Amazingly enough, it gets even more better! After a while people start to realise how all this "we want our liberties back!!" brouhaha is creating hot spots in shopping areas - not somewhere you want to be. People stop shopping again, discover that the new freedom cry is "Give me liberty AND death!", and all economic activity returns back to zero - but with more people infected (and an higher strain on the healthcare infrastructure, as intelligently noted).

4. A nice ribbon to tie it all. Next time you declare how "The Coronavirus emergency is over, no really this time it is, we want our economy back!!!1 (sic)" people will be much more wary and the economy restarts in fits and coughs because (to use an Italian idiomatic form) you burned your word. And this if mortar and brick business still exists and Amazon hasn't bought the World.

Simulation ended.

Do you want to risk this? (because, admittedly, this is not a given - only a model of what could happen if the coin drops with the wrong face up) Maybe you don't agree with this simulation in the first place? Fine. Break the model. We are in a wargaming forum and this is a wargame of sorts: it should be fun! Just show me where it is wrong. The rest it hot air.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Let's run a simple simulation, shall we? One valid for the Western World in a general sense.

1. You (with this meaning "a general guy") open shop again (let's say it is a shop for simplicity). You are infected but asymptomatic. After a few days a percentage of your customers fall ill. Some tracking is done and the cluster is centered around your shop. You lose all your customers, you have to close shop and, according to the laws of your country, possibly become target of a score of lawsuits (God forbids that a customer's elderly in-laws got the virus via you). In any case, your activity is, "de facto", wiped out.

2. But wait, it gets better! You are not a carrier and everything is fine. But your neighbour is. Some of his/her customers get infected and, since they are doing a shopping round, they come to you next. Soon or later you get infected. Go to 1.

3. Amazingly enough, it gets even more better! After a while people start to realise how all this "we want our liberties back!!" brouhaha is creating hot spots in shopping areas - not somewhere you want to be. People stop shopping again, discover that the new freedom cry is "Give me liberty AND death!", and all economic activity returns back to zero - but with more people infected (and an higher strain on the healthcare infrastructure, as intelligently noted).

4. A nice ribbon to tie it all. Next time you declare how "The Coronavirus emergency is over, no really this time it is, we want our economy back!!!1 (sic)" people will be much more wary and the economy restarts in fits and coughs because (to use an Italian idiomatic form) you burned your word. And this if mortar and brick business still exists and Amazon hasn't bought the World.

Simulation ended.

Do you want to risk this? (because, admittedly, this is not a given - only a model of what could happen if the coin drops with the wrong face up) Maybe you don't agree with this simulation in the first place? Fine. Break the model. We are in a wargaming forum and this is a wargame of sorts: it should be fun! Just show me where it is wrong. The rest it hot air.

Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

quote:


But getting out of the lockdown — and out of your shelter-in-place bunker — is not the beginning of the end of the pandemic. It is only the end of the beginning — the very brief beginning of what seems likely to be an epically long saga of disease, fear, and uncertainty.

...

There are, practically speaking, three paths out of the coronavirus crisis, to a way of life that resembles the one interrupted by COVID-19. The first is a vaccine. The second is effective treatment for the sick — not just effective at the margin, but so effective that catching the disease becomes a considerably less worrisome prospect for even those with comorbidities. The third is through herd immunity, when enough of the population has acquired COVID-19 antibodies that even with a return to “normal” life, there wouldn’t be enough opportunities for disease transmission for the virus to continue circulating through the population.

...

Here are the timelines for each of the three. The most optimistic projection for vaccines is that they begin to be available this fall; other reputable estimates suggest between one and two years from now. A two-year development cycle would be unprecedented speed for any vaccine, and, while scientists are quite optimistic, no vaccine has ever been developed for a coronavirus before; onto each timeline you’d have to add some amount of time for rollout and administration.

...

That leaves herd immunity. Epidemiologists tell us it requires between 60 to 80 percent of the population to have antibodies. At the moment, though, lack of testing means we don’t have a clear picture of the spread of the disease; a generous rough estimate for how many Americans have been exposed is 5 percent. While there are some reasons to hope that the exposure could be significantly higher, 5 percent would be more than ten times higher than the number of known cases, and would be in line with large-scale serological surveys in Holland (where the disease has been relatively widespread), suggesting that 3 percent of the population had antibodies. Others projections suggest that the U.K. is only 5 to 6 percent through the course of its pandemic, and recent models estimate an immunity level of about 6 percent across seven European countries. And it means, taking that generous figure for disease exposure and the low-end threshold for herd immunity, we would need 12 times more exposure than we’ve had to this point — in other words, that we are only one-12th of the way through this crisis.

That may sound bleak, and there are some indications that the population spread could be much more broad. But assuming no wild underestimate of total asymptomatic cases, one-12th of the way through the crisis is a very optimistic projection, if not quite a best-case scenario. It is possible that even less of the public has been exposed — perhaps one percent or lower. At that level of exposure, we could be only one-80th of the way through the pandemic, requiring 80 times more infection and exposure to attain herd immunity than we have had to this point.

Now, disease spread is not linear, which means 80 times more exposure doesn’t necessarily mean the pandemic has to last 80 times as long as it already has. But it does mean, probably, that to reach herd immunity many, many more people will have to get sick — some of those very sick, and some of those lethally so — before we find ourselves, in any meaningful way, in the clear.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

LOL.

Obvert has applied Asian Georgia regulations to USA Georgia.

I could live with that.

I love ponytails.

Pigtails, technically.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Speaking of pigtails...


CDC assesses plan to reopen Smithfield Foods pork plant in South Dakota, a US coronavirus hot spot
16Ap2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2020/04/16/smithfield-foods-coronavirus-sioux-falls-south-dakota-reopening-plan/5150398002/

"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Federal health officials hope to take the first steps toward getting a South Dakota pork processing plant and coronavirus hot spot back up and running.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had staff in Sioux Falls on Thursday touring the Smithfield Foods, Inc. plant. That step comes three weeks after the first COVID-19 case involving a Smithfield employee was determined on March 24.

The CDC team is assessing conditions and developing an action plan needed to safely reopen the hog harvesting facility that's been shut down for nearly a week, according to Gov. Kristi Noem's office."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Speaking of pigtails...


CDC assesses plan to reopen Smithfield Foods pork plant in South Dakota, a US coronavirus hot spot
16Ap2020

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2020/04/16/smithfield-foods-coronavirus-sioux-falls-south-dakota-reopening-plan/5150398002/

"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — Federal health officials hope to take the first steps toward getting a South Dakota pork processing plant and coronavirus hot spot back up and running.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had staff in Sioux Falls on Thursday touring the Smithfield Foods, Inc. plant. That step comes three weeks after the first COVID-19 case involving a Smithfield employee was determined on March 24.

The CDC team is assessing conditions and developing an action plan needed to safely reopen the hog harvesting facility that's been shut down for nearly a week, according to Gov. Kristi Noem's office."

On Smithfield the BBC ran this report today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52311877

Obviously to be taken with a pinch of salt as it is more a 'human-interest' report than an analytical one.

In the UK a manager in a similar (although much smaller in scale) factory was recorded telling the employees that those that did not come into work may well not have jobs to come back to.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate...

As I posted before, this type of happening has been in popular entertainment for decades.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

In the book, the virus has a 100% mortality rate...

As I posted before, this type of happening has been in popular entertainment for decades.

Sweet Baby Jesus! I'm gonna talk him into going to track with me!

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

France finds more than 1,000 coronavirus cases on aircraft carrier
Today


https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/17/breaking-news/france-finds-more-than-1000-coronavirus-cases-on-aircraft-carrier/



"PARIS >> The French navy is investigating how the coronavirus infected more than 1,000 sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, amid growing pressure on government leaders to explain how it could have happened.

The ship, France’s biggest carrier and the flagship of its navy, is undergoing a lengthy disinfection process since returning to its home base in Toulon five days ago.

One person remains in intensive care and some 20 others hospitalized, navy spokesman Cmdr. Eric Lavault told The Associated Press."

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive
Neither European countries or the USA can afford to stay in lockdown until we have a vaccine or even 'universal' testing. So at some point we are going to have to get used to a situation where we may indeed be asymptomatic carriers but have started living our lives more normally because that is what the situation demands. It's about managing risks.

I don't think anybody here is arguing that we should now just 'go back to normal'. Similarly I think most people appreciate that we can't just carry on like this indefinitely. There may be differences of opinion in terms of the extent of 'normal' that we will be returning to and how long that will last - but that is because at the moment we are dealing with a massive information deficit because nobody really knows how many people have actually been infected. If it is a high proportion we might find ourselves able to go back to 'normal' quicker than expected. If it a low proportion and closer to the reported cases then we probably won't be able to go back to normal till a vaccine is ready. In that situation the challenge is to find the right balance between full lockdowns and full normality.

(*) The quote is not from me: it has been used today by a prominent newspaper, but the accompanying picture
was frighteningly accurate. No, no politics = no newspaper name.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and Moon to line up before sunrise this weekend


On Saturday morning, look to the east-southeast between 5 a.m. and about 30 minutes before sunrise(EST). In the coming days, the warning crescent moon will thin into a slender sickle, vanishing entirely as a “new moon” arrives Tuesday night.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Sorry CR, but there is nothing incorrect about stating that those who are willing to expose other people (or are doing so), knowingly or not (almost certainly unknowingly), are putting other people in danger. On a large scale, that will lead to more deaths. If one disagrees with this, then it follows that one must also disagree with the entire concept of social distancing as a tool to prevent the spread of disease - because it's the same thing, just a matter of scale. I don't think you think that social distancing hasn't been effective (the opposite, in fact), so you should probably just concede the point rather than projecting hubris onto him.


And nothing about obvert's post that says "this is what you should think." He even went out of his way to point that out. Did you miss it?

Objective arguments may not actually sway our southern gentleman.

I'm sure he has read the science on correct distancing across a campfire over a number of hours, the percentage possibility of passing the virus while casually chatting on an Appalachian trail with wind speed, temperature and humidity taken into account.

The definition of hubris is actually quite interesting in this context. From Websters;

hubris: exaggerated pride or self-confidence

Which is exactly what is on display when our European forumites start lecturing on how we SHOULD be doing things, or how we must be idiots or uncaring savages hell bent on destroying our species because we push back against the lecturing.

Where on earth has anybody said that???

Do you understand the meaning of the word innuendo?

Or how about the word imply?

Hans, the only thing you offer here is insult, aggression and tangents.

Post something useful and maybe someone will take your self-righteous indignation more seriously. Well ... probably not, But worth a try.