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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:22:44 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Cuomo Says 21 Percent of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies
Apr 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

"About 21 percent of roughly 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

If those numbers translate to the true incidence of coronavirus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.6 million people statewide, have already been infected.

These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.

They would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low — about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said."




No comments???????????????????

This goes along with the studies coming out of California.

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Post #: 5641
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:28:28 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Is your mail safe? 3 Jacksonville postal workers test positive for COVID-19
April 22, 2020


https://www.firstcoastnews.com/video/news/health/coronavirus/is-your-mail-safe-3-jacksonville-postal-workers-test-positive-for-covid-19/77-3b254a85-71b7-4802-ad0b-35eccb594ed9


"The United States Postal Service announced Wednesday that employees working at mail distribution centers have coronavirus, USPS says that mail is still safe.









WHAT???

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Post #: 5642
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:29:50 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

what is that bag made out of.... SUPER SPECIAL MATERIAL?







Come on people we need to find out what that bag is made out of.

We can make a fortune!!!!

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Post #: 5643
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:30:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Further on in that local newspaper article, two restaurant owners are quoted as holding off on re-opening for another week or two. I'd probably do the same, in their shoes.

We didn't have "anti-shutdown" protests in this area. Nor, so far as I know, in the state. One reason may be that most regulations were imposed locally, rather than statewide or national. When it's your neighbors making decisions, there's a heightened level of confidence and accountability (IMO). As others have noted, many non-urban areas have a strong streak of independence, but here that's been tempered by caution.

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Post #: 5644
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:31:10 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
My Father died when he was 21.

Good thing he did not die from a DEVASTATING virus when he was 95.

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Post #: 5645
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:37:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
While walking through a local cemetery on the morning of July 4, 2001, I found a paired-tombstone for Frank Holder, who died in 1919, and Emmie Holder, who died in 1992. After doing research, I wrote a story about the Spanish Flu Pandemic here. Frank was a young (20) saw miller when he died of the flu. Emmie was left to raise their one-year-old son. She never remarried, so died after being a widow for 72 years.

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Post #: 5646
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:38:24 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Boy from isolated Amazon tribe dies after being infected with coronavirus
April 12, 2020


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/643234-boy-from-isolated-amazon-tribe-dies-after-being-infected-with-coronavirus


"BRASILIA (Reuters) - A Yanomami youth has died after testing positive for coronavirus, health officials said on Friday, raising fears that the epidemic will spread among the largest indigenous tribe in northern Brazil.

Alvanei Xirixan, 15, died on Thursday night in intensive care in the main hospital of Boa Vista, capital of Roraima state, according to the local indigenous health service Dsei attached to the Ministry of Health."

"He died of severe respiratory complications on Thursday night, the Brazilian health ministry said in a statement."


isolated

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Post #: 5647
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:40:57 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

While walking through a local cemetery on the morning of July 4, 2001, I found a paired-tombstone for Frank Holder, who died in 1919, and Emmie Holder, who died in 1992. After doing research, I wrote a story about the Spanish Flu Pandemic here. Frank was a young (20) saw miller when he died of the flu. Emmie was left to raise their one-year-old son. She never remarried, so died after being a widow for 72 years.



In one of our oldest cemeteries, we have 2 sisters that died a week apart in the 1850's. A lady that was with me said that it was a bad flu year.

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Post #: 5648
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:45:39 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Tar, feathers, rails....

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Post #: 5649
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 1:47:04 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Chris Cuomo and CNN stage a fake coronavirus resurrection
April 21, 2020

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/chris-cuomo-and-cnn-stage-a-fake-coronavirus-resurrection


"Anchor Chris Cuomo, who says he had the coronavirus, “emerged” this week from his basement quarantine, claiming he has been cleared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That is not the weird part. The weird part is that Cuomo makes it sounds as if this is his first time out of isolation since he announced on March 31 that he had been diagnosed with the virus.

Cuomo has previously admitted that he broke quarantine on Easter Sunday to take his wife and children to look at an undeveloped property in East Hampton, New York — a full 30-minute drive from their home in Southampton."

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Post #: 5650
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:04:00 PM   
Macclan5


Posts: 1065
Joined: 3/24/2016
From: Toronto Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ouch. That's a difficult combination. Since my mom is 90 and in assisted living, the vulnerability of her age group is always in mind.

How is it that you have an aunt in Canada?


My mother is a first generation American, having been born and raised with her two sisters in Montreal. I'm 50% French- Canadian by blood.

I have a favor to ask the Canadian readers of this thread. Can you please point me towards the latest restrictions on Americans on travel to Canada? Last I heard, Canada was allowing Americans to travel there, but with a mandated 14 day quarantine upon arrival. Is that still in effect?

I need to think about travelling there within two weeks.


I always like to ask people who claim that they are French Canadian. Are you French? Or are you Canadian?

That said, at least one of my ancestors did live in France for awhile. There are still people living there with that same last name is y understanding.


I AM AN American. My ancestors were Canadian. And French before that. And Normans before that. And before that, some kind of viking. That's them. I'm and American , and always have been.


Quebec has the largest group of French-speaking people outside France, and their language and culture are precious to them. The French were the first to explore Canada and establish communities here in the early 1500s. As part of our heritage, and in recognition of their contributions in repelling American invasions, the French have been granted special treatment in many ways. Provinces have been encouraged to include French language instruction in their school curricula, although there was a lot of resistance from provinces that were jealous of Quebec's special treatment. Thankfully, younger generations who have had the opportunity to travel to Quebec with an open mind have come to realize the value of that culture and language. If you wonder about this, take a trip to Quebec City in summertime.

So when a person is French-Canadian, they have divided emotions. They are Canadian so long as Canada respects their language and culture but have considered separating if the rest of Canada threatens to try and make Quebec an Anglophone province. Canada has been learning how to do multi-culturalism for some time and we can handle it - no need to make everyone conform to whatever one group thinks it should be.


+100

A very good summary BB - well articulated. Thank you.

Additionally 'scholars have postulated' - that Quebec has represented Canada dealing with 'multiculturalism' for far longer than any other western democracy. This in turn has lead to 'collaborative' governance as a principal of parliamentary democracy right down to the manner in which Supreme Court Justices are selected. . There have been many many benefits to this - and in honesty some drawbacks.

However this balancing of cultural plurality as well as Regional Differences among Canadians ( Anglo Canadians as opposed to Canadiens) forces "big tent" politics within our major National Political Parties - accommodating diverse views. Our Liberals in past iterations have balanced budgets. Our Conservatives in past iterations have invested in social spending.

Populism of the left or right is never broad enough to gain National support ( merely a fraction of the vote and Parliment) although they can "influence policy"

Consistent with my National Identity

I am sorry if this sounds like an advertisement for Canada but we are quietly VERY proud of our Nation.

I would not apologize if this was a hockey rink forum... I would throw punches ... then buy you a beer after the game by way of apology without saying the words


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Post #: 5651
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:06:44 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Chris Cuomo and CNN stage a fake coronavirus resurrection
April 21, 2020

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/chris-cuomo-and-cnn-stage-a-fake-coronavirus-resurrection


"Anchor Chris Cuomo, who says he had the coronavirus, “emerged” this week from his basement quarantine, claiming he has been cleared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That is not the weird part. The weird part is that Cuomo makes it sounds as if this is his first time out of isolation since he announced on March 31 that he had been diagnosed with the virus.

Cuomo has previously admitted that he broke quarantine on Easter Sunday to take his wife and children to look at an undeveloped property in East Hampton, New York — a full 30-minute drive from their home in Southampton."



Any comment I make is likely to cross the red line Bill laid down.......mum's the word.

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Hans


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Post #: 5652
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:12:45 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
My favorite French Canadians, "The Suit Trappers" from Kids in the Hall

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbfA5L3YAO0

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/24/2020 2:13:12 PM >


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Post #: 5653
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:29:00 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ouch. That's a difficult combination. Since my mom is 90 and in assisted living, the vulnerability of her age group is always in mind.

How is it that you have an aunt in Canada?


My mother is a first generation American, having been born and raised with her two sisters in Montreal. I'm 50% French- Canadian by blood.

I have a favor to ask the Canadian readers of this thread. Can you please point me towards the latest restrictions on Americans on travel to Canada? Last I heard, Canada was allowing Americans to travel there, but with a mandated 14 day quarantine upon arrival. Is that still in effect?

I need to think about travelling there within two weeks.


I always like to ask people who claim that they are French Canadian. Are you French? Or are you Canadian?

That said, at least one of my ancestors did live in France for awhile. There are still people living there with that same last name is y understanding.


I AM AN American. My ancestors were Canadian. And French before that. And Normans before that. And before that, some kind of viking. That's them. I'm and American , and always have been.


Quebec has the largest group of French-speaking people outside France, and their language and culture are precious to them. The French were the first to explore Canada and establish communities here in the early 1500s. As part of our heritage, and in recognition of their contributions in repelling American invasions, the French have been granted special treatment in many ways. Provinces have been encouraged to include French language instruction in their school curricula, although there was a lot of resistance from provinces that were jealous of Quebec's special treatment. Thankfully, younger generations who have had the opportunity to travel to Quebec with an open mind have come to realize the value of that culture and language. If you wonder about this, take a trip to Quebec City in summertime.

So when a person is French-Canadian, they have divided emotions. They are Canadian so long as Canada respects their language and culture but have considered separating if the rest of Canada threatens to try and make Quebec an Anglophone province. Canada has been learning how to do multi-culturalism for some time and we can handle it - no need to make everyone conform to whatever one group thinks it should be.


+100

A very good summary BB - well articulated. Thank you.

Additionally 'scholars have postulated' - that Quebec has represented Canada dealing with 'multiculturalism' for far longer than any other western democracy. This in turn has lead to 'collaborative' governance as a principal of parliamentary democracy right down to the manner in which Supreme Court Justices are selected. . There have been many many benefits to this - and in honesty some drawbacks.

However this balancing of cultural plurality as well as Regional Differences among Canadians ( Anglo Canadians as opposed to Canadiens) forces "big tent" politics within our major National Political Parties - accommodating diverse views. Our Liberals in past iterations have balanced budgets. Our Conservatives in past iterations have invested in social spending.

Populism of the left or right is never broad enough to gain National support ( merely a fraction of the vote and Parliment) although they can "influence policy"

Consistent with my National Identity

I am sorry if this sounds like an advertisement for Canada but we are quietly VERY proud of our Nation.

I would not apologize if this was a hockey rink forum... I would throw punches ... then buy you a beer after the game by way of apology without saying the words


I have worked with a number of people in Canada (and others from Canada), including Quebec. There was one thing which many of the French-Canadian Quebecois strongly disagreed with. Residents of Quebec who were of French-Canadian ethnicity were required by law to send their children to primarily French-speaking schools, the notion being to preserve the culture. They disagreed with that because they felt it should be their choice what sort of school they sent their children to, not a government decision based on their ethnicity.

I don't know if the law is still that way in Quebec.

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Post #: 5654
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:32:58 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Bad news from abroad. My Aunt (and Godmother) who was in a nursing home in Quebec has been moved to the hospital after testing positive for COVID-19. She is 91.

Fingers crossed.

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Post #: 5655
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:51:31 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Chris Cuomo and CNN stage a fake coronavirus resurrection
April 21, 2020

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/chris-cuomo-and-cnn-stage-a-fake-coronavirus-resurrection


"Anchor Chris Cuomo, who says he had the coronavirus, “emerged” this week from his basement quarantine, claiming he has been cleared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That is not the weird part. The weird part is that Cuomo makes it sounds as if this is his first time out of isolation since he announced on March 31 that he had been diagnosed with the virus.

Cuomo has previously admitted that he broke quarantine on Easter Sunday to take his wife and children to look at an undeveloped property in East Hampton, New York — a full 30-minute drive from their home in Southampton."



Any comment I make is likely to cross the red line Bill laid down.......mum's the word.



And he threatens a man who saw him out and about.
quote:


"“I said to him, ‘Your brother is the coronavirus czar, and you’re not even following his rules — unnecessary travel,’” David told the Post.

According to David, Mr Cuomo said “Who the hell are you? I can do what I want.”"


Chris Cuomo: CNN host hit with police complaint after threatening elderly man
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/chris-cuomos-coronavirus-cdc-andrew-quarantine-health-update-a9477181.html

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/24/2020 2:53:01 PM >


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Post #: 5656
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:57:00 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline


Thou shouldst not have been old till thou hadst been wise.

- The Fool, King Lear

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Post #: 5657
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 2:59:12 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In easing countermeasures, Georgia is allowing certain business to re-open today (salons, bowling allies, and some others). Restaurants can re-open Monday.

Here's an excerpt from our local newspaper today, describing how some businesses planning to re-open are handling things (p.s. - no new cases reported yesterday, and the case level has been basically flat the past week):


Some local businesses are cautiously getting ready to get things back to something like normal.

Kim R*****, owner of the ****** *** Salon, has left a voicemail on her telephone informing customers that she will reopen slowly. She asks her regulars for patience as they have over a month’s worth of appointments to try to reschedule.

“If you have an appointment we are requesting that you wear a mask, stay in your car and text your stylist to let them know you’re here,” the voicemail says. “They will let you know when to come in. We have to watch our numbers.”

Salon ***** will also reopen Friday.

Owner Cindy T***** has gotten a laser thermometer to check the foreheads of customers as they return. Anyone with a temperature over 99 will not be permitted inside the salon, she said. The shop was cleaned professionally Thursday prior to the reopening. One of the reasons clients are being asked to wait in their cars is to give the stylists a chance to clean thoroughly following each appointment. The waiting area will not be used for the time being.

“We are not allowing anybody to bring extra people to the appointment,” ****** said. “We’re not going to have mom and dad and three kids coming in all together. That goes over our limit of people we can have.”

Bart K******, who operates both of Rome’s bowling alleys, said he plans to open Friday — but will limit activity to every other pair of lanes. He said that is well beyond the 6-foot social distance rule.

“We will have someone taking names at the door and counting people,” K****** said. “People will have to wait outside in their cars and as lanes become available we will call them in.”

Employees will be cleaning the alley seating area, bowling balls and public access areas frequently as turnover takes place.



There is a joke here about a child asking her Mom what she did at the bowling ally after it reopened. I just won't post it here . . .

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Post #: 5658
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 3:09:14 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
BBfanboy and Macclan5 have provided me with some helpful information regarding travel to Canada. In particular, this is a good Wikipedia page as a running record of the outbreak in Canada:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Canada

Based on that, it looks like *all* gatherings are still forbidden in Quebec. All Air Canada flights to the United States are grounded beginning April 26. All 'non-essential' travel to the country has been suspended, including Americans. All returning Canadians and anybody else travelling to Canada must self-quarantine for 14 days once in country. Self-quarantine must not include lodging with any particularly vulnerable population (e.g., older relatives (>65) or people with pre-existing conditions).

I haven't been able to ascertain whether travelling for a funeral would be considered 'essential', but it looks like it would be impractical or untimely regardless.

Nationally, most provincial epidemic curves have flattened, with the exception of Quebec and Nova Scotia. These 'new case' curves are still in the log growth phase. National new cases about where we are too, maybe a few days behind us in terms of max number new cases / day. National testing is about where we are: 17,000/M vs. about 14,800/M.

It looks like Quebec has been hit disproportionately hard-more cases and deaths than the other provinces put together. Particularly problematic in nursing homes in Quebec. Some of the reasons for this include rotation of nursing service workers through different homes, use of non-native workers in these facilities with mixed understanding of proper hygiene following and possibly funding issues with those private companies running the retirement homes. Nursing home deaths comprise half of Quebec's death toll. The Regional health director in Montreal estimates that 75% of nursing homes in the area will be affected. And now members of the Canadian Armed Forces have been marshalled to assist with some of these facilities.:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Quebec

So as we've said that "there's NY/NJ and then there's everybody else" stateside, it looks like Quebec (and Nova Scotia?) will be Canada's bellweather.

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Post #: 5659
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 3:21:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Coronavirus: Legault pushes ‘herd immunity’ ahead of gradual reopening of schools
April 23, 2020 10:25 pm

https://globalnews.ca/news/6860689/coronavirus-herd-immunity-quebec-schools/


"Premier François Legault pushed the concept of “herd immunity” on Thursday as he prepared to lay the groundwork next week for a plan to gradually restart the economy and get children back to schools.

The approach would involve exposing a large proportion of Quebecers to the novel coronavirus in a measured, gradual way, to help them develop a natural immunity."

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Post #: 5660
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 3:24:19 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
"The virus has been particularly devastating for elderly people - people over age 60 account for about 97 percent of all deaths in Quebec so far - and has highlighted systemic problems in the healthcare system, including underfunding and chronic staffing shortages."


Canada: How Quebec elder care homes became coronavirus hotspots

Over half of the more than 1,243 COVID-19 deaths in Canadian province of Quebec have been in long-term care centres.

2 hours ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/canada-quebec-elder-care-homes-coronavirus-hotspots-200423214537289.html

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Post #: 5661
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 3:30:13 PM   
MakeeLearn


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It would be very interesting to see statistics on the workers in Quebec elder care homes.



< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/24/2020 3:36:57 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 3:53:33 PM   
HansBolter


Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline
Riddle me this.....

Why is it that some countries only have one large dot for the entire country, like Russia and Brazil, but others are completely covered over with multiple dots for locales within the country like the USA?

Seems to me to create a misleading interpretation of severity.








Attachment (1)

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Post #: 5663
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:06:10 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
Maybe it is just the total number in that country where the country does not state where the cases are actually located.

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 5664
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:14:42 PM   
Lovejoy


Posts: 240
Joined: 12/16/2015
From: United States
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Riddle me this.....

Why is it that some countries only have one large dot for the entire country, like Russia and Brazil, but others are completely covered over with multiple dots for locales within the country like the USA?

Seems to me to create a misleading interpretation of severity.



I think it also might be the case that the map relies on figures supplied by each country's government. I don't know about Brazil, but a couple of my Russian friends told me that the Russian Govt's figures should not be trusted.

(in reply to HansBolter)
Post #: 5665
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:17:40 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Cuomo Says 21 Percent of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies
Apr 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

"About 21 percent of roughly 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

If those numbers translate to the true incidence of coronavirus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.6 million people statewide, have already been infected.

These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.

They would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low — about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said."




No comments???????????????????

This goes along with the studies coming out of California.


I followed the article and have some comments as I see them:

Here's a more detailed discussion of the serology testing than Cuomo's briefing summary:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

First off, the testing was not a random subset of the population of either the City of New York or the State of New York. It was voluntary testing of 'shoppers'. As stated in some observations of the results, it did not include children, teenagers and older adults that may have been sheltering in place. Supermarket shoppers are probably not a representative sample when a state is in lockdown.

Sampling 3,000 people out of a 14M population is a sample rate of .002% of the state population. Statistically significant? Not even close. Not even with a test that is 100% sensitive and 100% specific-which this serology test is most certainly not. It gets even worse when you start talking about interpretation of some of the commercial 'quicky' serology tests that will soon be flooding the market.

None of the relevant health histories were taken from the shoppers. How many of these people had a FUO (Fever of Unknown Origin) or other clinical signs going back to-say-December 1, 2019? Dunno. So now you lost your 'asymptomatic' versus 'symptomatic' distinction. Were any of the shoppers known positive by RT-PCR (and recovered)? Dunno. Now you lost your correlation between RT-PCR (virus positive) and convalescent serum response too.

The tests, while conducted in a respected State laboratory, were intentionally interpreted to err on the side of caution. Namely what constitutes a 'positive' finding for the test. I couldn't find details on what the test parameter cutoffs were for calibration purposes, but this likely understates the number of people with serologic antibody titers-they may have been below the cutoff in their profile.

There appear to be disparate results between NYC samples and 'outstate' samples: 21% of NYC, 17% in Long Island, 12% in Westchester / Rockland and less than 4% in the rest of the state.

There was also an apt quote from one of the public health folks that cautioned against using antibody testing as a criterion to allow people into the world, "To use it as a fulcrum for when someone can travel or work...we have to be extremely careful as a society in doing that." Little is known about the meaning of being seropositive with respect to immunity or resistance to future infections.

It will be extremely problematic to try to apply these disparate findings to any sort of statewide 'back to work' edict. If only 21% of New Yorkers have been 'exposed' to the virus, is that sufficient for herd immunity? No. You probably need ~70% for that. So NYC is less than a third of the way 'there'. Anybody here think NYC can stay closed for another 6 months? Plus, shelter-in-place edicts will slow the community spread of the virus, making it tougher to 'hit the numbers' for herd immunity. If the target is 70% before herd immunity is established, NYC may *never* get there with their extreme quarantine.

And what about the rest of the state? 4% seroconversion outside of NYC? That's nothing. How can the governor of the state apply local observations about NYC to the greater population with less than 1/5 of the seroconversion? Keep the state closed down until the outstate seroconversion rate is up to 70%?

So, to summarize: You have non-random sampling of residents of your state. You get different results depending on geography. Not a surprise there, as your virus testing and case/mortality data already noted the glaring difference between NYC and everywhere else. Nothing about the data suggests that you are anywhere close to 'herd immunity'-on a novel pathogen such as this-one doesn't know what herd immunity numbers will even look like anyways. Per the quote above, you can't use this data as a decision making tool regarding a return to travel or work or some 'immunity passport'.

Earlier in the thread I cautioned about the overinterpretation of the meaning of serology results. This study highlights some of the fundamental problems using this retrospective data (serologic antibodies are always retrospective data re: exposures) to make meaningful decisions moving forward. Without proper stratification of your sample and profiling samples relative to clinical history you cannot derive meaning from the study for prospective decisions. Farther still to using this data for a disparate and heterogenous state population.

IFR is lower than initially thought? Not a surprise. That happens in lots of diseases (sometimes it's higher too). Big whoop. Other than an "I told you so" gotcha moment, how does this help making decisions moving forward beyond what you already know?

So is it all garbage? No. But without some of the needed study design and implementation, it's impossible to meaningfully interpret or use as a decision making tool. Therefore these studies will be rendered a scientific curiosity or a 'gee whiz'.

We will have to move forward with incomplete information. The 'numbers' won't obviate our need to make tough and balanced decisions. And we have to be on guard for overreliance on these sorts of tests to be some sort of sop for the masses.

Those are my thoughts.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 4/24/2020 4:32:35 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:25:43 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


So is it garbage? No. But without some of the needed study design and implementation, it's impossible to meaningfully interpret or use as a decision making tool. Therefore these studies will be rendered a scientific curiosity or a 'gee whiz'.



That seems to cover the majority.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:31:09 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Coronavirus updates: America's death toll passes 50,000
April 24, 2020

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-update-covid-19-2020-04-24/


"The death toll from the coronavirus in the United States passed 50,000 Friday morning, accounting for more than 25% of COVID-19 deaths globally, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University."


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:36:08 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Covid-19 latest: Up to half of deaths in Europe were in care homes


23 April 2020


https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-latest-up-to-half-of-deaths-in-europe-were-in-care-homes/


"Up to half of those who have died from covid-19 in Europe were in care homes, according to Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization (WHO) regional director for Europe. Describing the finding as “deeply concerning”, Kluge said that many care homes may be “providing pathways for the virus to spread” and the problem has been made worse because care home workers are “overstretched, underpaid and unprotected.”

Yesterday, the UK government’s chief medical adviser Chris Witty said it was hard to prevent deaths in care homes “sadly because this is a very vulnerable group.”"



< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/24/2020 4:38:05 PM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/24/2020 4:41:31 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Sugary Drinks Kill 184,000 People Every Year
June 29, 2015

https://www.livescience.com/51385-sugary-drinks-global-deaths.html


"Sugary drinks cause 184,000 deaths worldwide annually, including 25,000 deaths in the United States, according to a new study.

The finding — a revised estimate of numbers first presented at a scientific meeting in 2013 — represents a tally of deaths from diabetes, heart disease and cancer that scientists say can be directly attributed to the consumption of sweetened sodas, fruit drinks, sports/energy drinks and iced teas.

The numbers imply that sugary drinks can cause as many deaths annually as the flu."

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