Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

No. Didn't see the study. Link?

By 'younger', I was mostly thinking of 'younger than they-residents of nursing homes-are' (e.g., nursing home workers / caregivers)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models. They seem much more stable and seem to be suggesting that their national model is pretty robust for the most part but with some state level departures in terms of some states that don't appear to have passed the predicted peak, some that are 'recovering' more slowly than predicted, and others that seem to be consistently doing better than predicted.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models.

Exactly. So using this map, taking into account mobility, accessibility, randomness...

Confirmed cases 886,047
(Today: +16,877)

A starting point..

I'd say ~x8 higher of infected people.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models.

Exactly. So using this map, taking into account mobility, accessibility, randomness...

Confirmed cases 886,047
(Today: +16,877)

A starting point..

I'd say ~x8 higher of infected people.

I'm a little cautious of that map as it is showing total case numbers and not case numbers/capita.

If I was going to give a layman's estimate of 'real' prevalence I'd be going along with something close to your estimate - something like 90% of cases going unreported. If that was right then the US would be up be up to c.9M infections - or 2.5% of the US population. Even if you took it up to 99% of cases being unreported that still only gets up to 25% of the population.

Personally I'm very sceptical of suggestions that the big countries in Europe are running at even 10% rates of infection. Put bluntly a person can only die once. In addition it seems fairly sensible to suggest that the more vulnerable you are the quicker you will die. So the higher the real prevalence the bigger and quicker the drop off you will see in deaths from peak. That doesn't seem to be what we are seeing in Spain/Italy where there has been a drop off from the peak daily deaths but then a settling of daily deaths at around 400/day. That's in the context of lockdown measures that have been in place for well over a month.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Part of the problem is 'what's in a death?' There is little common understanding or agreement of what constitutes an iron-clad death due to COVID-19 even between states here, let alone how other countries consider their 'cause of' death. Do you count people that died in their homes suddenly and are whisked away to be cremated with neither a test positive or clinical diagnosis? Do you count people that died of a heart attack but tested positive? Died "from" COVID-19 versus "with" COVID-19 is on ongoing issue. I think ITAKLinus mentioned that the Germans count their deaths differently than Italy and Spain did. Sounds to me like the PA Health Dept. vs. Coroners have a fundamental disagreement how they're going to count these victims.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Part of the problem is 'what's in a death?' There is little common understanding or agreement of what constitutes an iron-clad death due to COVID-19 even between states here, let alone how other countries consider their 'cause of' death. Do you count people that died in their homes suddenly and are whisked away to be cremated with neither a test positive or clinical diagnosis? Do you count people that died of a heart attack but tested positive? Died "from" COVID-19 versus "with" COVID-19 is on ongoing issue. I think ITAKLinus mentioned that the Germans count their deaths differently than Italy and Spain did. Sounds to me like the PA Health Dept. vs. Coroners have a fundamental disagreement how they're going to count these victims.

Agreed. In the UK we've had the ONS release their figures for overall numbers of deaths. For 4/04-10/04 they reported 18500 deaths - 8000 more than what is 'normal' (the BBC report doesn't say over what period that's been calculated). So for that week we seem to have had a rise of c.75%. I think at one point NYC were reporting their overall death rate doubling. In the long term I think the numbers of 'excess deaths' will be much more informative than the numbers of confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

No. Didn't see the study. Link?

By 'younger', I was mostly thinking of 'younger than they-residents of nursing homes-are' (e.g., nursing home workers / caregivers)

I personally haven't seen it, only referenced to by Swiss officials for one of the reasons they are re-opening their schools. I thought perhaps you or Makee had?

Pre-covid, I was at a nursing home 4 days a week or more, caregivers there get pretty darn young, all the way down to the 20s I guess.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In the animal agriculture business, the bottleneck of processing lines going down from workers with COVID-19 is a real hot topic. Companies with sick line workers in Louisiana poultry plants are faced with the stark choice of either euthanizing their animals that cannot be processed in a timely manner or getting them processed somewhere else. Anywhere will do. In some cases, birds are being shipped to North Carolina or other states with solid processing plant excess capacity. Having a nation's food supply in jeopardy is a big deal. A really big deal.

At least some of the Government is aware of the issue and trying to act as a national intermediary for processing plant capacity issues. I found this to be a step in the right direction.

American livestock and poultry producers are facing an unprecedented emergency due to COVID-19, particularly with the closing of meat processing plants in several states. USDA is leading the federal response by working in coordination with the Vice President’s Task Force, the CDC, OSHA, Department of Labor, industry, state and local governments, and others across the federal family to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on producers. We will continue to seek solutions to ensure the continuity of operations and return to production as quickly, safely and as health considerations allow at these critical facilities.

While this work continues, the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) is establishing a National Incident Coordination Center to provide direct support to producers whose animals cannot move to market as a result of processing plant closures due to COVID-19. Going forward, APHIS’ Coordination Center, State Veterinarians, and other state officials will be assisting to help identify potential alternative markets if a producer is unable to move animals, and if necessary, advise and assist on depopulation and disposal methods.

Additionally, APHIS will mobilize and deploy assets of the National Veterinary Stockpile as needed and secure the services of contractors that can supply additional equipment, personnel, and services, much as it did during the large-scale Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza emergency in 2015.

Additionally, the USDA’s Natural Resources and Conservation Service (NRCS) will be providing state level technical assistance to producers and will provide cost share assistance under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) in line with program guidelines for disposal.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Only if the virus doesn't beat you first. In the case of COVID-19, large portions of nursing home populations won't have the opportunity to develop herd immunity if they die en masse from a point source introduction. One of the most frustrating things about this disparity in clinical disease/mortality is how young carriers of the agent are entirely unaffected while the most susceptible die with alarming alacrity. Nasty wicked problem.

Did you see Switzerland's studies were children can not carry enough of the virus to actually pass it on someone else?

I think the thing with children and with schools in particular is that even if an individual child can't pass on the virus, a class of 20 of them could be enough to give it the teacher and then all the adults they then come into contact with in the week before they start developing symptoms.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

My impression of the day-to-day US state figures is that they are all over the place, particularly in terms of deaths. Worldometers has Louisiana going from 126 deaths yesterday to 2 today. I am now just looking at the overall US figures and in terms of individual states the comparison between total reported deaths and the predicted total figures for that day from the Washington models.

Exactly. So using this map, taking into account mobility, accessibility, randomness...

Confirmed cases 886,047
(Today: +16,877)

A starting point..

I'd say ~x8 higher of infected people.

I'm a little cautious of that map as it is showing total case numbers and not case numbers/capita.

If I was going to give a layman's estimate of 'real' prevalence I'd be going along with something close to your estimate - something like 90% of cases going unreported. If that was right then the US would be up be up to c.9M infections - or 2.5% of the US population. Even if you took it up to 99% of cases being unreported that still only gets up to 25% of the population.

Personally I'm very sceptical of suggestions that the big countries in Europe are running at even 10% rates of infection. Put bluntly a person can only die once. In addition it seems fairly sensible to suggest that the more vulnerable you are the quicker you will die. So the higher the real prevalence the bigger and quicker the drop off you will see in deaths from peak. That doesn't seem to be what we are seeing in Spain/Italy where there has been a drop off from the peak daily deaths but then a settling of daily deaths at around 400/day. That's in the context of lockdown measures that have been in place for well over a month.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


The lobsters are size of Florida cockroaches

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Part of the problem is 'what's in a death?' There is little common understanding or agreement of what constitutes an iron-clad death due to COVID-19 even between states here, let alone how other countries consider their 'cause of' death. Do you count people that died in their homes suddenly and are whisked away to be cremated with neither a test positive or clinical diagnosis? Do you count people that died of a heart attack but tested positive? Died "from" COVID-19 versus "with" COVID-19 is on ongoing issue. I think ITAKLinus mentioned that the Germans count their deaths differently than Italy and Spain did. Sounds to me like the PA Health Dept. vs. Coroners have a fundamental disagreement how they're going to count these victims.

Agreed. In the UK we've had the ONS release their figures for overall numbers of deaths. For 4/04-10/04 they reported 18500 deaths - 8000 more than what is 'normal' (the BBC report doesn't say over what period that's been calculated). So for that week we seem to have had a rise of c.75%. I think at one point NYC were reporting their overall death rate doubling. In the long term I think the numbers of 'excess deaths' will be much more informative than the numbers of confirmed Covid-19 deaths.

Calculation of 'excess mortality' in a given population and ascribing causality to it is just as difficult IMO. Many hospitals here (most actually) had restricted so-called elective surgeries of all manner during the earlier aspects of the epidemic curves. Some states with comparatively tame outbreaks (e.g., California and Texas) have resumed these surgeries, but many places have not.

So someone that really needs a pacemaker or a cardiac stent between March 15 and May 1 (examples) and does not survive to get the elective surgery dies. Lots of examples of that happening here. How does that 'excess mortality' get counted. Prima fasci evidence that they were refused life-saving surgery due to COVID-19 restrictions on that practice. Is that a COVID-19 'excess mortality'?

Fewer drivers will be killed on roads in Texas, Los Angeles and New York city than 2019 over the months of March and April (and maybe May, who knows?). Are these 'deficit deaths' counted on a ledger against the 'excess mortality' ones?

What about influenza between 2019 and 2020? Evidence that this year's influenza outbreak here will be much less than average mortality. Infection curve dropped like a rock when social distancing recommendations started getting rolled out nationally. Efforts to mitigate COVID-19 *also* truncated seasonal influenza. So can we count YOY lives saved from influenza as a credit against COVID-19 deaths?

Who parses out each life saved versus lost and ascribes causality to same? It gets very murky very quickly and sounds like an actuarial's worst nightmare.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

"Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy"

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Since Cv19 kills men more than women, I now identify as "Anastasia" a Ukrainian peasant woman.
Sorry my hair looks so disheveled. Iam having a bad hair day.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Thanks Makee...

Not sure if anyone finds local Pennsylvania covid reporting interesting, but a few pages back I posted a link to the reduction of deaths in PA from a relatively right wing rural paper.

Here is the story from a relatively left wing big city paper:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-death-count-changes-confusion-coroanvirus-20200423.html

"Pa. removes more than 200 deaths from official coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, data accuracy"

-------------


Since Cv19 kills men more than women, I now identify as "Anastasia" a Ukrainian peasant woman.
Sorry my hair looks so disheveled. Iam having a bad hair day.

Anastasia your lips and pectorals are horribly swollen!

quote:

NEW YORK -- Federal prosecutors charged a New York retailer Friday with hoarding tons of disposable masks, surgical gowns and hand sanitizer in a Long Island warehouse and selling the items at huge markups.
Amardeep “Bobby” Singh, 45, was charged with violating the Defense Production Act of 1950 in what authorities described as the first such prosecution during the coronavirus pandemic.
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Singh sells sneakers and apparel at his Plainview store, prosecutors said, but dedicated a new section last month to “COVID-19 Essentials," including N95 masks, face shields, gloves and disinfecting products.
In late March and early April, authorities said, Singh stockpiled more than 1.6 tons of disposable masks; 2.2 tons of surgical gowns; 1.8 tons of hand sanitizer and seven shipments of digital thermometers.
Records from the store showed he bought the face masks for 7 cents apiece and then resold them for $1 each, prosecutors said.
A search of his business and warehouse turned up more than 5,000 face shields, 2,471 full-body isolation suits and 711,400 disposable vinyl gloves, according to court records.
Authorities said Singh marketed the products on social media and continued selling them even after he received a cease-and-desist letter from the New York Attorney General's Office, which called his pricing “unconscionably excessive."
Singh’s stockpiles for now are being held as evidence, but the Federal Emergency Management Agency is “working through the details” of how to reallocate the materials to institutions in need of such equipment, said a law enforcement official familiar with the matter. The person wasn’t authorized to speak publicly about the materials and spoke on the condition of anonymity.