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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:40:54 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm waiting for him to clarify. He ran together a figure (2) and a letter (P) in a way that I don't understand. I'm hoping he'll clarify.


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.


Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.





2%, and likely wasn't a typo. I'd warrant that the earlier 8/4/2020 figure was revised down to 101% and the 25/4/2020 figure isn't finished processing.

As a side note, American date rendering is daft, and it takes 8 weeks to process some of that data...that seems quite a long time...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6481
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:41:15 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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The term "new deaths" sounds like something from a Zombie flick.

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Post #: 6482
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:41:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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The name "Wuhan" came from the city's historical origin from the conglomeration of Wuchang, Hankou and Hanyang, which are collectively known as the "Three Towns of Wuhan." So I think we AE folks know it as Hankow.

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Post #: 6483
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:43:39 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Where is Wuhan on the WITP AE map?


Wuchang, I think?

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Post #: 6484
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:49:17 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I didn't comment on the data.


Suggesting Lowpe's 2% claim was a typo.


It is read: Footnote 2 (space) Percent....

I put it in there to clarify the expected death column and merely caused confusion.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 6485
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:49:41 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here you go.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 6486
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:56:09 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So China was panicking when it realized the virus could become a huge problem in their country, and started gathering what they would need if they could not contain it. And Canada concluded it was better to help the Chinese deal with it before it spread too much worldwide. At the time, no one knew how fast it would spread or how stealthy it was, and the Chinese did not know how effective their control measures would be. It looks like the Chinese were being really proactive. So now they are selling the PPE back to the world and bidders are setting the price. I don't see a problem.

BTW, here is a clip of the world's biggest cargo plane delivering a load of PPE to Quebec ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6898314/coronavirus-worlds-largest-aircraft-ppe-quebec/


I DO see a problem since China shut down factories making the PPE equipment. I posted on that a while ago. They kept the factories open that produced for China but shut down the ones that produced for export. Then the CCP had the supplies purchased in other countries, then shipped to China. Now, the Chinese are reselling it at much higher prices.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 6487
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 3:57:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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Thanks for the clarification.

So, the CDC chart shows that the US experienced 95% expected mortality week of 3/14 and again week of 3/20, rising to 120% for week of 4/10, and dropping to 101% April 18.

What does 49% on April 25 indicate? Surely we didn't incur only 49% of expected deaths? I assume the data was incomplete? And that might be true for some time prior thereto, as data may still be coming in?

The US experienced 120% of expected mortality the week of April 11. Mortality was 66,577, meaning the normal amount would be roughly 55,000. So roughly 11,000 mortalities more than expected that week.

I think the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 was far more than 11,000 that week.

Interesting.








quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe







< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/3/2020 3:58:55 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)
Post #: 6488
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:01:28 PM   
durnedwolf


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

USA Today struggling with context here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/01/coronavirus-us-may-hit-10000-deaths-record-cases-may/3062216001/

The newspaper notes that the US has more than 63k deaths, which is more than the combined total mortalities of the countries with the second and third most deaths, Italy and UK....but fails to note that their combined populations are about 127 million, more than 200 million less than the US.







I hear what you are saying but population size, I would argue, is not the overriding factor in deaths from COVID-19. I think population density is probably the biggest factor. Compare rural loss of life in America to larger cities as an example. And then compare cities that are PHD (Piled Higher and Deeper - like Washington DC) VS cities that are spread out (Like LA).

And another strong spike in death rate is in nursing homes, where we have basically put many of our elder population that already have other health problems all into one basket, so to speak.


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6489
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:01:29 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the clarification.

So, the CDC chart shows that the US experienced 95% expected mortality week of 3/14 and again week of 3/20, rising to 120% for week of 4/10, and dropping to 101% April 18.

What does 49% on April 25 indicate? Surely we didn't incur only 49% of expected deaths? I assume the data was incomplete? And that might be true for some time prior thereto, as data may still be coming in?

The US experienced 120% of expected mortality the week of April 11. Mortality was 66,577, meaning the normal amount would be roughly 55,000. So roughly 11,000 mortalities more than expected that week.

I think the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 was far more than 11,000 that week.

Interesting.




If you'd read the caveats below the table, you'd know exactly why the 25/4 figure is at 49%

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6490
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:03:35 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So China was panicking when it realized the virus could become a huge problem in their country, and started gathering what they would need if they could not contain it. And Canada concluded it was better to help the Chinese deal with it before it spread too much worldwide. At the time, no one knew how fast it would spread or how stealthy it was, and the Chinese did not know how effective their control measures would be. It looks like the Chinese were being really proactive. So now they are selling the PPE back to the world and bidders are setting the price. I don't see a problem.

BTW, here is a clip of the world's biggest cargo plane delivering a load of PPE to Quebec ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6898314/coronavirus-worlds-largest-aircraft-ppe-quebec/


I DO see a problem since China shut down factories making the PPE equipment. I posted on that a while ago. They kept the factories open that produced for China but shut down the ones that produced for export. Then the CCP had the supplies purchased in other countries, then shipped to China. Now, the Chinese are reselling it at much higher prices.

I don't know what resource inputs are required to make PPE, but China may not have had enough material to keep ALL of their factories open and running full blast. When you are panicking (as they certainly were), you don't worry about the rest of the world. I am not convinced that profit was the motive. It just worked out that way when the Chinese did not need all they had stockpiled.

So where were our own health officials and PPE factories when China was gathering up all it could? They were willingly selling to them to make a profit ...

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 6491
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:05:19 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hey, durnedwolf. Yeah, there are many reasons for the disparities. But what I found interesting was USA Today's failure to give proper context in its report.


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

USA Today struggling with context here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/01/coronavirus-us-may-hit-10000-deaths-record-cases-may/3062216001/

The newspaper notes that the US has more than 63k deaths, which is more than the combined total mortalities of the countries with the second and third most deaths, Italy and UK....but fails to note that their combined populations are about 127 million, more than 200 million less than the US.







I hear what you are saying but population size, I would argue, is not the overriding factor in deaths from COVID-19. I think population density is probably the biggest factor. Compare rural loss of life in America to larger cities as an example. And then compare cities that are PHD (Piled Higher and Deeper - like Washington DC) VS cities that are spread out (Like LA).

And another strong spike in death rate is in nursing homes, where we have basically put many of our elder population that already have other health problems all into one basket, so to speak.



(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 6492
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:07:02 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the clarification.

So, the CDC chart shows that the US was a 95% expected mortality on 3/14 and 3/20, rising to 120% on 4/10, and dropping to 101% on April 18.

What does 49% on April 25 indicate? Surely we didn't incur only 49% of expected deaths? I assume the data was incomplete? And that might be true for some time prior thereto, as data may still be coming in?

The US experienced 120% of expected mortality the week of April 11. Mortality was 66,577, meaning the normal amount would be roughly 55,000. So roughly 11,000 mortalities more than expected that week.

I think the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19 was far more than 11,000 that week.

Interesting.




I think all the numbers need to be looked at and questioned. All the numbers from all the sources.

One of the reasons why early on I linked to a biomedical statistician.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6493
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:14:37 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very early on in here, there were predictions that Florida would be particularly hard hit due to its elderly population. Didn't happen (more accurately: hasn't happened and isn't now projected to happen).

From a historical standpoint it would be interesting to know what info went into the early models and why they were too high for places like Florida and too low for New York.


Part of it could be the polluted air.

Another part would be the weather. That is, the temperature and humidity. In Florida it is much warmer and more humid, the warmer weather would encourage people to be outside more there than in the colder climes while the humidity would decrease the time that the virus would be airborne. If you were to take -30 F air inside and warm it to room temperature, it would be drier than the Sahara Desert. While I am not saying that it got that cold in New York, it does give you an idea about how dry that air really is. That dry air really helps spread the virus.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6494
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:19:03 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

More on China.

United Front groups in Canada helped Beijing stockpile coronavirus safety supplies

https://globalnews.ca/news/6858818/coronavirus-china-united-front-canada-protective-equipment-shortage/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So China was panicking when it realized the virus could become a huge problem in their country, and started gathering what they would need if they could not contain it. And Canada concluded it was better to help the Chinese deal with it before it spread too much worldwide. At the time, no one knew how fast it would spread or how stealthy it was, and the Chinese did not know how effective their control measures would be. It looks like the Chinese were being really proactive. So now they are selling the PPE back to the world and bidders are setting the price. I don't see a problem.

BTW, here is a clip of the world's biggest cargo plane delivering a load of PPE to Quebec ...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6898314/coronavirus-worlds-largest-aircraft-ppe-quebec/


I DO see a problem since China shut down factories making the PPE equipment. I posted on that a while ago. They kept the factories open that produced for China but shut down the ones that produced for export. Then the CCP had the supplies purchased in other countries, then shipped to China. Now, the Chinese are reselling it at much higher prices.

I don't know what resource inputs are required to make PPE, but China may not have had enough material to keep ALL of their factories open and running full blast. When you are panicking (as they certainly were), you don't worry about the rest of the world. I am not convinced that profit was the motive. It just worked out that way when the Chinese did not need all they had stockpiled.

So where were our own health officials and PPE factories when China was gathering up all it could? They were willingly selling to them to make a profit ...


I would get into details but that would delve into a forbidden topic of "many blood sucking creatures!"

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 6495
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:24:26 PM   
durnedwolf


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hey, durnedwolf. Yeah, there are many reasons for the disparities. But what I found interesting was USA Today's failure to give proper context in its report.


quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

USA Today struggling with context here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/01/coronavirus-us-may-hit-10000-deaths-record-cases-may/3062216001/

The newspaper notes that the US has more than 63k deaths, which is more than the combined total mortalities of the countries with the second and third most deaths, Italy and UK....but fails to note that their combined populations are about 127 million, more than 200 million less than the US.







I hear what you are saying but population size, I would argue, is not the overriding factor in deaths from COVID-19. I think population density is probably the biggest factor. Compare rural loss of life in America to larger cities as an example. And then compare cities that are PHD (Piled Higher and Deeper - like Washington DC) VS cities that are spread out (Like LA).

And another strong spike in death rate is in nursing homes, where we have basically put many of our elder population that already have other health problems all into one basket, so to speak.





Laughter. If most people working as reporters engaged that muscle betwixt their ears, they'd have a different profession by now. I still can't believe we had people in America calling in to see if it was safe to shoot up a little Lysol or Bleach to help disinfect themselves from any COVID-19...

What does Ron White always say? "You can't fix stupid - 'cause stupid is fooooorrrrrrr-evvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvverrrrrrrrrrrrr-rrrrrrrr-rrrrrrr.


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6496
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:51:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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Lowpe, agreed that every number is suspect; and lots of variability between how jurisdictions report. Until we have a better source, Worldometers and Univ. of Wash. seem credible and have been used here from the start (or since first available, in the case of U. Wash.). If jurisdictions report differently, there is at least utility if each one is consistent in its own reporting.

(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 6497
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:54:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Re: durnedwold: Yeah, the media is wonky...but they're mostly an educated wonky. At least, that's the case for the major newspapers/stations. Their issues don't arise from a lack of intelligence.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6498
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 4:56:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Italy reports 174 deaths today, its lowest total since March 10.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6499
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 5:16:12 PM   
durnedwolf


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From: USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Re: durnedwold: Yeah, the media is wonky...but they're mostly an educated wonky. At least, that's the case for the major newspapers/stations. Their issues don't arise from a lack of intelligence.


And I would just point out that an upper education does not necessarily provide evidence of an active and engaged mind.

_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6500
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 5:18:41 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe, agreed that every number is suspect; and lots of variability between how jurisdictions report. Until we have a better source, Worldometers and Univ. of Wash. seem credible and have been used here from the start (or since first available, in the case of U. Wash.). If jurisdictions report differently, there is at least utility if each one is consistent in its own reporting.


Ah, I had said this some time back and it was waved away. Nice to see that you've realized this at last.

I doubt we'll see anything resembling standard reporting on this for a while yet, seeing the time taken to get things in operation for death certificate reporting. Even that suffers the classification problem, as I suspect there will not be one set way of determining a death related to Covid.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6501
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 5:20:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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I've said that all along, so try again.

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Post #: 6502
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 5:20:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Re: durnedwold: Yeah, the media is wonky...but they're mostly an educated wonky. At least, that's the case for the major newspapers/stations. Their issues don't arise from a lack of intelligence.


And I would just point out that an upper education does not necessarily provide evidence of an active and engaged mind.


(in reply to durnedwolf)
Post #: 6503
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 5:23:38 PM   
Canoerebel


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Major decline in reported deaths for UK today - 315. If that's the final tally, that's the lowest since March 29.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 6504
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 6:13:38 PM   
obvert


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Sweden has become an interest of mine as we look for examples of easing measures and opening businesses. They have never closed most of them, and remain in a stable, if growing, position in relation to cases. The growth is slow, the percentage positive in testing is moderately high (~16), but mortality is not higher than many countries who have had much more strict lockdowns.

Interesting article on how and why this works in Sweden, but might not elsewhere.

Sweden's Deputy Prime Minister, Isabella Lovin, told the BBC's Andrew Marr on Sunday "it's a great myth that Sweden hasn't really taken very serious steps" to limit the spread of the virus.

"Every country needs to take its own measures according to its traditions and its systems of governance," Lovin said, a nod to the fact that Sweden's public health agency runs independently, so politicians never get to make decisions about Swedish health.

"It's a real fear that if you have too harsh measures, then they can't be sustained over time, and you can get a counter-reaction, and people would not respect the voluntary recommendations that will need to be respected for a very long time."

The economy has also taken a hit. The Swedish Public Employment Service said on April 20 that 8% of the country is now unemployed, a figure that's projected to continue to rise, possibly hitting 10% by this summer.

"This is not a strategy that has come without any impact on our economy, or on people's freedom," Lovin told the BBC. "We have more than 90,000 people who have been unemployed during these four or five weeks."

Trust in the public is high, and so is the public’s trust in the strategy. Swedes seem happy with the global attention. “Many countries are starting to come around to the Swedish way,” Anders Tegnell, the country’s chief epidemiologist, told USA Today.

But like so many stories of national exceptionalism in this crisis — the U.K. at one point was convinced it could avoid strict closures, painting them as unscientific, before eventually doing a U-turn — this one is debatable and premature.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 6505
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 6:27:42 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

The news media picked up on the negative projections for the South and predicted the region would suffer disproportionately. Naturally, some forumites picked up on that. As weeks passed and data came in indicating this wasn't true, the forumites asked for "more time" to receive data. When a week passed, and then another, and then two more, the data continued to show it wasn't the South suffering disproportionately. Actually it was the North. The media (and concerned forumites) haven't addressed this. The misreporting simply faded into the past, unacknowledged. No effort to self-critique, clarify or contextualize.


What data shows that the South is not suffering disproportionately?

The statistic of real value in my mind would be the comparison of excess deaths for the month versus the past five year average. Anyone know where we can see that for the US (preferably broken down by state level, but smaller would be better)?


I have been looking for something like that number for a long time. The best I can come up with is the CDC has the US at 101, 115 and 119 (weekly number) percent above the prior three years average for a 3 week period before dropping back down to less than 100%. And for the year to date we are still under 99% of expected deaths. Data published May 1st.



Here is the data from FT on many countries including the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/3/2020 6:43:10 PM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 6506
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 6:40:59 PM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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This is for cities.






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 6507
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 7:00:48 PM   
obvert


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The testing sorted by percentage. Again the UK drops a few percentage points and goes closer to the 10% line at 15.5%.






Attachment (1)

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 6508
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 7:35:04 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


Here is the data from FT on many countries including the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c


I read that article when it initially came out...the jist of the article is that covid deaths could be under reported by as much as 60%.

I have serious questions about the validity of the numbers and presentation.

The horizontal plotting points are unclear. The x plane varies by country. We are comparing some short interval (week) to a four year average (what kind of average?), but at no point are we shown what the range of a standard deviation is for that average.

The small print below each graph is not enlightening.

Now don't get me wrong, I would be fairly surprised to see a lower death count, especially in the years comprising the average. Go back to 2008-2009, well, not so much. However, the excess deaths could as easily be coming from other sources.

Here is another very problematical analysis of numbers but with far different conclusions. It is by a Chartered Financial Advisor.

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/pandemic-2020-layoff-related-deaths-increase-covid-19-cordle-cfa






< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/3/2020 7:39:02 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 6509
RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/3/2020 7:48:06 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9511
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

The residents of Wuhan were also not allowed to leave the city without permission from the authorities. ... An estimated 300,000 people were reported to have left Wuhan by train alone before the 10 am lockdown.

Either a contradiction, or the authorities gave permission to the 300,000

quote:

What they [the Chinese] did was campaign to NOT shut down international fights from elsewhere in China even though they knew perhaps tens or hundreds of thousands had already fled Wuhan.

Ah, ok that makes sense. Plus, for what it's worth, the US never 'banned' flights from China, Italy, nor anywhere else. The US asked international flyers to voluntarily self-quarantine. So, indeed China has some responsibility in spreading this thing around the globe, but the US also did nothing to prevent it until March when random businesses were closed and many states asked folks to stay at home [until ? ...].

(in reply to sPzAbt653)
Post #: 6510
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