Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I recall that in one election (I think Obama vs. Romney, 2012) a number of precincts in Philadelphia reported 100% for the Democrat candidate. But even in the most stubbornly red or blue precincts in this nation, there are ALWAYS a few who think differently. Unanimity in the population never occurs.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced

I had a conversation with a co-worker with extensive experience in modelling the other day.

Haven't read the article yet, but their view was that modelling of this nature is so domain specific that the degree to which the models can be transferred from one subject area to another is quite limited.

Plus, the thought of all those undocumented lines of code hurts my soul.

While I can understand the resistance to putting the code up as open source, I think it is useful as an assurance mechanism to essentially crowd source quality control

Totally agree with open sourcing. The model I put up with respect to GA, which is backed by heavy, heavy hitters, has been open sourced from day 1. They might be hideously wrong, but I think they are hideously honest. Your fault if you don't examine it.

Somewhere along the evolutionary trail polls became a method to move public opinion or justify a decision process. Having a lot of polling experience in my professional life, I know I can make a poll say anything I want to -- understanding the poll methodology is critical.

I think most people don't understand modelling and its need for looking under the hood, so to speak.

I think the real issue lies in areas where you are modelling established patterns of behaviour which, when people are made aware of, would lead to a change in behaviour and made the model less accurate.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

This link is primarily for Obvert, it is about media bias, and goes back to a book about media bias from an insider years back. Well, he just wrote another article about it.

In the age of Trump, media bias comes into the spotlight

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/495927-in-the-age-of-trump-media-bias-comes-into-the-spotlight

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Here is another article on Ferguson's code.

Neil Ferguson’s Lockdown Model Ridiculed After its Code is Open Sourced

https://www.trustnodes.com/2020/05/08/neil-fergusons-lockdown-model-ridiculed-after-its-code-is-open-sourced

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ICU Doctor: What I Wish People Knew About Coronavirus


https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/08/icu-doctor-what-i-wish-people-knew-about-coronavirus/

Interesting mention of the non Covid collateral damage. Most transplant surgery stopped weeks and weeks ago. Folks that might have gotten a life saving transplant simply did not (shortage of blood donors was the primary issue). . Many screenings have been delayed. What is the long term effect of 2-3 months of delayed colon or breast cancer screenings? At least up my way we have seen a dramatic rise of people dying at home of heart attacks. In non lethal terms someone smart is going to have to prioritize the backlog of elective and non essential surgeries. I have a friend that needs a hernia operation. He is almost completely immobile and in pain. How about people that need hip and knee replacements? These folks won’t be near the top of the list. Just more misery

I read an English article quoting cancer doctors in the UK, that in 2021 there is going to be surge in cancer deaths due to delayed cancer treatments and delayed diagnosis. I will see if I can find it.

Toady's grim unemployment numbers were worse than meets the eye. The absolute number was not a big surprise. The distribution was the real bad news. It's not just the retail and hospitality which was expected to make up the bulk of the newly unemployed. In actuality, it was less than half. Manufacturing, computers, white collar, legal, government (about 450,000 teachers), construction and most surprisingly employment in health care fell by 1.4 million as Americans avoided visits to their doctors and dentists for all but the direst emergencies. Basic preventative care is being neglected and that is a bit of a time bomb.

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It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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It took 8.3 years for the US to recover from the 2008 economic crisis, this meltdown is worse.

Yup. So many things. People are not going to trust restaurants and bars in large numbers for a long time. Airlines and hotels? Even if you could afford it do you trust them? Who is buying a new car when your unemployed or worried about your job? New housing starts? Maybe, if people want to flee the city. Major construction? Not likely. They will finish whats going on but financing new stuff wont be easy. Health and hospitals? Many hospitals will close. Luxury goods? Retail? Brick and mortar retail was dying before this. Office and professional services jobs? We just found out we don't need so many people and most of those can work at home? Government jobs? Big cuts coming there. Cruise Ships? Ding-Dong-Dead! I just don't see many growth industries. And what kind of economy are we running when the the stock markets spikes up every time millions of people loose their jobs? I don't know why but this makes me sad and angry. I suspect when the 2nd wave or the next lock-down hits (As always I'm on "Team Science") the markets may get the point. With 20 million people out of work who is going to drive an economy that is 75% based on consumer spending?

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Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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Take solace in the fact that in the short term the stock market is irrational.

I used to think there were brilliant experts in the markets. I'm convinced they are mostly a bunch of emotional idiots and to some extent the game is rigged against the little guy in the short run. Too much insider info. Warren Buffet was right. Buy an index fund and let it sit there for 10 years and it will out preform every "expert". If you watch the financial channels they are absolutely confident and convinced they know what they are talking about. They don't. We have never, ever, been in a place like this in out lifetimes and anybody that thinks they know whats going to happen is trying to sell you something. This is true for everything. Your guess is as good as mine. They don't know anything more than you or I and if you are bright, and have decent reasoning skills, you probably know more.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

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ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

All this economic stuff is enough to keep one awake at night. Not to mention that it follows, and now walks alongside, three months of worries about a novel virus that flamed into pandemic.

Yuck.

Hey, but I know of a man who was utterly destitute yet wrote from jail, with complete conviction, "I have learned to be content whatever the circumstances." That's priceless.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad

This might have been posted before, but I find it so stupid:

The FDA wants us to social distance from our pets.

https://news.yahoo.com/fda-recommending-pet-owners-practice-184454087.html

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Do you really think a team of scientists at a prestigious university would put their careers and reputations on the line in the most public and important use of their work to date if the modelling was that poor?

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01003-6

Not sure about in England, but the answer is yes in the US. I certainly have a lot of questions about it. Don't you?

No. I think I made that obvious.

You're missing the point here.

You continue to post things that seem to indicate you think no one should have locked down for this. Is that your point?

If it is, I disagree, and I'll leave it there.

No, absolutely not. I have stated on numerous occasions that experimentation and local decision making is what I favor.

Well, that's what is happening in the States, right? How does questioning higher mortality levels modelled two months ago help your position?

The US would have used independent models and predictions regardless of the awareness of the Imperial figures, and the UK has as well. Have a read of the article if you want to know more.